It has been quite awhile since we’ve had an open thread on WUWT, so let’s have one. As usual, stay on topic per this blog’s usual discussions, and keep it civil. I’m particularly interested in hearing from readers about topics and issues we may not have covered that would be relevant for future posts.
Carrington magnitude solar event took place last night. Fortunately the CME was ejected on the opposite side of the sun directed away from the Earth. It remains to be seen if the interplanetary magnetic field disturbance was great enough to register on the Earth.
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/LATEST/current_c2.gif
ps. a comet approached sun from right hand side (4 o’clock direction) describing large arc in the 3rd quadrant (it survived) before moving away on its long journey.
typo 4th quadrant
Sorry about that, it normally shouldn’t load or run unless activated, perhaps MOD can replace the image with its LINK
The GIF image bogged my computer down for minutes while this thread loaded. The image size is 57MB which should have loaded easily in normal circumstances. There must be some extra interaction with Chrome (my browser). I would prefer to have animated GIF’s banned. Let me choose when a video plays, thank you.
Most browsers have a control setting to stop animations playing. The above is from the NASA’s SOHO’s webpage.
The huge image screwed me over too. Guess I have to change my browser settings now to read WUWT.
Oops, silly me. Make that 81%.
Energy Flow Origins
Quadrillion (E15) Btu, 2013
Coal 19.99 18.3%
NG 24.89 22.8%
Crude 15.77 14.4%
NGPL 3.47 3.2%
Nuclear 8.27 7.6%
Renewable 9.30 8.5%
Petroleum Imports 21.09 19.3%
Other Imports 3.45 3.2%
Stock Change and Other 3.12 2.9%
Total 109.35
88.66 81%
Here’s an amusing story from Daily Kos:
THU FEB 19, 2015 AT 01:58 PM PST
PA Lawmakers Hold Climate Change Press Conference and No Press Attended
byS KitchenFollow
Hotlist Recommend 16 Comments / 16 New
Just so everyone knows, I have been working for the Rick Smith Show the past month as the producer and capitol reporter for Rick’s show. At 11 am this morning, I was at a press conference on the reintroduction climate change legislation from the previous session in the Capitol Media Center, and at the time I posted a video of those who attended.
I was sitting in the back of the media center and there 3 news cameras behind me, a photojournalist, a Senate staffer / intern sitting next to me and two people who I thought were journalists right in font of me. As of 5PM EST, there hasn’t been a single story on today’s presser, which I am about to publish my first and a follow up on the lack of media at today’s event, and I am beginning to believe that I was the only person who attended the thing.
All I can say is “WOW?” There was a press release published after the conference was held, but yeah, just goes to show you how important this issue is on the state level
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/02/19/1365565/-PA-Lawmakers-Hold-Climate-Change-Press-Conference-and-No-Press-Attended.
In the new movie Kingsmen, the bad guy is a billionaire who wants to save the Earth from humans (climate change of course). So he has a plan to kill most of the people. One of the digs is how easily he co-opts politicians to join him as long as they are safe.
I recently made a presentation to a group of academics from the University in Pori,Finland concerning the oil and gas industry. Since my audience was unfamliar with the subject but had assuredly been exposed to the anti-oil propaganda, I presented my own propaganda instead of refuting what they had been told about the oil industry.
Fossil Fuel Propaganda
There is more than enough propaganda concerning the evil of fossil fuels, so rather than try to refute I will offer alternative propaganda-however I do have the math to support my claims.
1) There wouldn’t be a whale alive today without the advent of oil being refined into kerosene for illumination instead of whale oil.
2) If we were still burning wood instead of oil and natural gas all of the trees would be gone and I haven’t heard of people dying in smog in London or New York, since natural gas and fuel oil replaced wood and coal as the primary heating fuel at the beginning of 1900’s.
3) In order to create as much energy as 1-10 bbl/day oil well you would need to cover approximately 120 acres with solar panels.
4) The payout of a 1 megawatt windmill at current electric costs in the US is about 17 years without government subsidies and assuming zero maintenance costs.
5) Of the electrical power generation in the US, 6% comes from renewable energy. Of that 6% approximately 90% comes from hydroelectric sources. Wind, solar and biomass (by the way biomass is an Orwellian term for wood) therefore represent .6% after billions of dollars in subsidy.
6) My calculations indicate that to go the same distance in an electric car of similar size and weight to a gasoline car would require the use of at about 5 times the amount of fossil fuel to generate the necessary amount of electricity.
7) The explorer Desoto in 1537 reported in his log that he caulked his ship from tar balls on the beach at Port Isabelle, Texas.
“My calculations indicate that to go the same distance in an electric car of similar size and weight to a gasoline car would require the use of at about 5 times the amount of fossil fuel to generate the necessary amount of electricity.”
The calculations would be interesting to see. That result doesn’t seem entirely consistent with those of Jake J. above.
I finally understand what motivates climate alarmists.
http://mappingignorance.org/2013/10/22/the-illusion-of-control-cognitive-bias-or-self-esteem-problem/
“The illusion of control rests at the heart of superstitious and pseudoscientific beliefs. It is a belief that we are controlling events which are actually occurring independently of our behavior. This is a very common illusion that occurs in most people, particularly when desired events occur frequently though uncontrollably.”
Remember those 2 words. “Predator Drones” They could use them to actually do something useful like mapping the real temperature of the earth published daily. ( My 12 year old’s take on this climate fiasco.)
OMG
http://www.desmogblog.com/2015/02/05/exclusive-bjorn-lomborg-think-tank-funder-revealed-billionaire-republican-vulture-capitalist-paul-singer
Well that was entertaining..
For Pamela:
We had a discussion last week in which you suggested that the current jet stream circulation over North America bringing extreme cold into the central plains and the east coast of North America was due to higher than normal heat in the eastern Pacific (Perhaps a reference to Bob Tisdale’s “hot spot”). I said “maybe, but I have seen this before in my 7 decades of life and the stories of my ancestors on this continent.
Rossby waves and stationary waves have been discussed here on WUWT before. There is quite a bit of unintelligible scientific discussion available, lots of it behind paywalls. The “science” from my perspective, says divergent flow might be A, B, C, D or any combination of factors but we need more research to figure it out. The science is a way beyond me as an old engineer who hasn’t done any serious maths for over 45 years.
So I looked for some simple explantations. Some of this is not “technically” accurate, but I am trying to generalize
Starting with basics, we all know there is an Aleutian Low that spins winter weather into the north part of North America. And the centre of that low moves east and west a bit We also know about the Monterey Bay High that keeps winter rainfall away from southern California. Operating together, the jet stream may go over Oregon or Washington or BC, or Alaska before turning east and south east and then back to the north east.
What causes the change in the jet stream and or Rossby waves, Stationary wave – is of great debate. I may be confusing terms here but I think people get the idea.
You have suggested that a warming eastern Pacific may influence the current configuration of the jet stream causing it to go up into Alaska before turning south on the eastern side of the Rockies.
Below is an article that suggest the EXACT OPPOSITE based on a review of data and North American Temperatures over the last 46 years. It suggests that recent COOLING of the eastern Pacific is causing the drop in temperature in central and eastern North America.
It seems that under current conditions, the jet stream is going north through Alaska, turning east across the Canadian Arctic north of the Rocky Mountains, then streaming down through Saskatchewan and Manitoba into the high plains of the US before turning North East up the eastern seaboard of the continent.
Now, this article is from November 10, 2014. What is really interesting, is that NOAA predicted a warmer than usual winter for the Central and Eastern US. AccuWeather, on the other hand, hit the nail on the head.
I think this is a very good link, written in understandable language. It has a few good points though I am sure people here will disagree with some items (especially the part from Trenbeth) but at least it does show people thinking about what is going on and trying to figure it out. I give them all kudos for that, even with the known biases.
http://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/perspective/13043/burning-questions-about-winter-cold
Now as for the science of Rossby Waves and Hadley Cells and all the rest – I think if you read the conclusions of the articles below, the best we can say is: ” We don’t know.”
But maybe some of you do.
http://www.public.iastate.edu/%7Etmchen/PDF/JAS_2005_winter_stationary_wave.pdf
http://montereybay.noaa.gov/sitechar/clim1.html
Gobbedlygook – choose whatever answer you want:
http://www.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2012/980816/
Uh – ok – we just don’t know:
http://people.su.se/~rcaba/publications/pdf/caballero.anderson.2009.hadley.eddy.enso.pdf
More paywalled papers:
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/showciting?cid=1510703
.
All of this is interesting, but what has any of it to do with CO2 concentrations? If there is not a demonstrated link between CO2 concentrations and this weather (has to go at least 30 years to become climate) it’s academic noise.
But “academic noise” is how “academic budgets” get created! Get “academic noisemakers” promoted, get “academic noisemaker bosses” payrolls and research budgets increased.
I’ve recently run across the information that China poured more concrete in the years 2011-2013 than the US did in the entire 20th century. How much of an urban heat island effect will that much pavement and building cause? Would it affect the whole region?
Scattered threads.
I have reached the point of Enough Already.
The Catastrophic Climate prophesies are very old and mostly only the tired mumbling of 3rd rate conmen.
The planet has refuted the amazing fantasy of a magic gas, plant food, causing runaway global warming.
Our “leaders” have squandered huge parts of the public treasure on promulgating mass hysteria.
Time to start the documenting of this meme.
An imaginary hobgoblin, designed to stampede the trusting masses into irrational actions, surrendering their individual rights and wealth in the process.
My government, particularly the progressive politicians and career bureaucrats of the federal civil service has been a leader in creating, promoting and refusing to investigate the meme of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming.
Look up Maurice Strong and The Liberal Party of Canada.( including their pet bureaucracy)
Who says Canada has not contributed to the world malaise.
In my opinion much of this nonsense, CAGW, The precautionary Principle and a multitude of regulations restrictions and mitigation spending,should never have passed the governments own standards.
Policy rules require that science claimed to support proposed policy, be documented.
That policy implications and detrimental effects be considered before imposing regulations…
By its own standards our government watchdogs have betrayed their duties.
Far too many of our “civil” servants are openly political and partisan.
Advocating for policies they desire and warping policies they do not support.
Now most of our bureaucrats believe they can evade any consequences of their ineptitude and dereliction of duty and will insist that we who have to pay for their mistakes must also supply them with the generous pensions they have awarded themselves. And this will probably turn out to be true.
But if the bureaucrats can twist and abuse the system until it breaks, what do we need them for?
If there is no independent judicial system, no equality before the law and no certainty of private property.. does civilization exist?
I want to see an in-depth investigation of the creation and use of the CAGW rumour, yet I do not trust my own government to even look.
Maybe it is time to archive the people involved in each little part of this bureaucratic fiasco.
Funny how a story so ripe with good intentions, billions of tax dollars, idiotic cures and blatant hypocrisy is so uninteresting to so called journalists.
Having personal experience with government committees, I can understand how this idiocy may well have spread from good intentions to frantically covering up the mistakes.
Seems one of the first rules of committee speak is ;If you don’t know don’t ask.
Essentially the career parasites will agree to most anything rather than admit their ignorance.
I suppose a more reasonable person might look at CAGW as an intelligence test, anyone dumb enough to fall for it is a sure sale for a whole bunch of other “products”.
However I tend to look at it as a clear indication of a person too stupid to be trusted with public moneys.
I want to see these people named,shamed and blacklisted from feeding at the publics expense, is this too much?
Reducing US power gen CO2 by 30% will reduce the global CO2 burden by less than 2.5%. Yippeee!
Has NASA provided an update of the global CO2 anomaly from ‘Orbiting Carbon (Dioxide) Observatory?
Has anyone heard an explanation as to why the first release of global CO2 data from OCO-2 appears to not support the theory that the majority of the recent rise in atmospheric CO2 rise is due to anthropogenic CO2 emission?
http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/styles/466×248/public/thumbnails/image/mainco2mappia18934.jpg
Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2)
http://oco.jpl.nasa.gov/
You asked for ideas for research and articles. How about focusing on the futility of “renewables”?
You could have hours of fun with this:
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/Global_Carbon_Project/Global_Carbon_Budget_2014_v1.0.xlsx
Take a look at the 1990 CO2 emissions for the EU 28 and North America: 1,161 and 1,509 MtC respectively. Then take a look at those for non-OECD and Asia: 2,795 and 1,628 MtC respectively. Global total is 6,127 MtC
Then take a look at the emissions for the latest year, 2013. 951 and 1,693 respectively for EU and NA. non-OECD and Asia are 5,937 and 4,584 respectively with global total at 9,861.
So, the developed world has effectively curbed carbon emissions by a small amount by spendinbillions but global total has gone up by more than 50%.
Even if you believe in global warming, this is disastrous policy from the West.
for ashok patel (@ugaap & others who may be interested. read all:
Jennifer Marohasy:
In the case of Marcia, the US Navy acknowledged that their Dvorak estimates were higher than the surface observations from Middle Percy Island. In particular their real time “warning”, no longer available on the internet, noted an “intensity of 110 knots” based on the anemometer on Middle Percy. This corresponds with the highest wind gust recorded on Middle Percy Island as Marcia passed over. The maximum sustained wind speed, however, never exceeded 156 km/h, and the central pressure was never less than 972 hPa. This makes Marcia a category 3 based on the Australian system, and only a category 2 based on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Yet the bureau continued to report the cyclone, not as it was, based on the surface observations, but as they had forecast it in a media release the previous day:
http://jennifermarohasy.com/
For all those who remeber Steve Posselt and his kayak-from-OZ-to-Paris trip to shame us deniers, here’s the latest in the low-carbon environmentally friendly holier-than-thou exercise in self promotion:
http://kayak4earth.com/category/diary/
That is hilarious.
It’s as Green as the Red Man of Redland beyond the Sea of No-Chlorophyll.
And even that’s not as red as he should blush.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/30/important-paper-strongly-suggests-man-made-co2-is-not-the-driver-of-global-warming/
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.ca/2012/08/new-blockbuster-paper-finds-man-made.html
The warmists extreme AGW paradigm has three inter related logical pillars/assertions:
1. Atmospheric CO2 is rising and Anthropogenic CO2 emissions is the only reason why atmospheric CO2 is rising.
Detailed phase analysis (phase analysis, is a standard analysis technique used to determine causes and effects, comparing the same month to the same month to take out the seasonally change in the CO2 pattern and comparing hemisphere to hemisphere), has found that the rise in CO2 appears in the Southern hemisphere near the equator, and occurs after temperature rise rather than before the temperature rise.
This finding does not agree (is a paradox) with the standard CO2 assumed sink and source theory (standard CO2 source and sink theory assumes minimum new sources of CO2 into the biosphere, as Gold noted in his book the primary CO2 input into the biosphere is not from volcanoes, but rather from the core of the earth as it solidifies, which extrudes high pressure liquid CH4 which drives tectonic plate movement and mountain formation, and so on. There are micro organisms which eat CH4, converting it to CO2) and does agree with computer models which are based on limited sink and source hypothesis.
The NASA orbital CO2 monitoring satellite data supports the phase data analysis:
The phase analysis and the NASA CO2 monitoring satellite supports the assertion that CO2 released from use of fossil fuels have little influence on the observed changes in the amount of atmospheric CO2, and changes in atmospheric CO2 are not tracking changes in human emissions.
A basic back of the envelope calculation indicates more than 50% of the recent CO2 rise is due to ‘natural’ sources. Salby is correct. Thomas Gold is correct (See the late Nobel Prize winner’s book Deep Hot Biosphere: The Fossil Fuel Myth.) There are roughly 50 different observations and analysis results to support this assertion. I will prepare a summary to discuss the CH4 deep core source hypothesis to explain where the atmosphere and oceans comes from (Gold’s theory, implications, higher input into the biosphere of CH4 requires greater sinks) which is the key to solving the current observational paradox (Salby’s conclusion/observation atmospheric CO2 tracks temperature rise rather than anthropogenic CO2 emission). The alternative hypothesis to the deep core CH4 source is the late veneer hypothesis.
2. The increase in atmospheric CO2 is the principal reason for the recent rise in planetary temperature. It appears the second warmist logical pillar is also not correct.
The phase data analysis indicates planetary temperature rises and then atmospheric CO2 increases and the increase in atmospheric CO2 is driven by increased CO2 in the Southern hemisphere, near the equator. It appears the majority of the recent temperature rise is not due to the increase in atmospheric CO2.
http://www.tech-know-group.com/papers/Carbon_dioxide_Humlum_et_al.pdf
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818112001658
3. Spending copious amounts of deficit money on green scams that do not work is a good thing rather than a bad thing, even if logical pillar 1 and 2 are not correct.
Meanwhile, a couple of positive developments in the West, which has been quite warm and dry because of the “ridge.” That ridge is shifting, and it looks like the rains and mountain snows will be returning.
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/02/the-ridge-begins-to-shift.html
Also, I did the numbers on California’s reservoirs. They are one-third higher than they were at this time a year ago. It appears that the “historic” drought has turned. These things don’t end right away. Reservoirs are only part of the story, with snowpack depth and moisture content being another, and soil moisture being another. But it’s still good news
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/reservoirs/RES
By the way, the same guy — Cliff Mass, a warmist who is sharply critical of the alarmists — was the first major expert to cast doubt on last year’s settled science 97% consensus that there’d be a strong El Nino. He also eviscerated the Seattle Times’s phony report on the AGW-driven acidification of Puget Sound, and their alarmism in general.
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/02/why-does-seattle-times-and-other-media.html
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2013/11/coastal-ocean-acidification-answering.html
Morning. This thread requested new ideas to explore. I have two
lets from from “the other side of the bridge” so to speak
One
What is the ideal CO2 concentration for terra firma considering temperature, plant growth, human health and any other relevant factor. And how would your arrive (justify) at that conclusion.
Lets not start by assuming 270 ppm is perfect.
Two
What “tools” do long range weather forecasters use that Meterological Bureaus don’t use.
In Australia we have Haydon Walker and Kevin Long to name but two, and they seem to have ( while not perfect) a better strike rate than the official Met bureaus.
Just wondering