Letter to the Editor Watts Up With That?
31st October 2014
For decades green extremists have been spreading doomsday forecasts of global warming.
But where do we find the greatest abundance of life on land? Follow the equator around the globe – the Amazon, the Congo, Kenya, Indonesia and New Guinea – all places where it is warm and wet.
And where is life such a struggle that few species live there? Go towards the poles – Siberia and the cold deserts of Antarctica and Greenland.
Where do most tourists go in winter? Few go to Alaska or Iceland – most head towards the warmth of the Mediterranean, the Caribbean, the Black Sea and Bali.
Which season is most welcomed? It is not the first frost, nor the first snowstorm, but the first cherry blossoms, the first robins, and the welcome green shoots of new spring pasture.
Land life multiplies in summer – many mammals hibernate or die in winter.
Every nurseryman knows that plants grow best in a warm greenhouse with added carbon dioxide. Global warmth speeds up the life-supporting water and carbon cycles – warming oceans expel the gases of life (carbon dioxide and water vapour) producing more clouds, more precipitation and more plant growth.
This is why the warm eras of the past are remembered as periods of plenty – the cold eras are times of hunger, migrations and war.
Life on Earth has never been threatened by greenhouse warming. It is the sudden plunge into an ice age that we need to fear.
Green alarmists should venture from their cosy offices and coffee shops and celebrate the welcome warmth of our global greenhouse while it lasts.
Warmth is good.
Viv Forbes,
Rosewood Qld Australia
For those who would like to read more:
Warmer temperatures do more good than harm:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9057151/carry-on-warming/
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Scarily cold & snowy in Chicago for Halloween:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/chi-snow-possible-weather-story-20141031-story.html
It’s hardly warmer if at all than it was 18 years ago across the planet. The only reason Australia is having a warm spell now is because solar activity in the last few months has been at the highest levels yet for this cycle. The average solar flux for this year is 142 sfu/day, and the last time it exceeded that level on average for a whole year was in 2002, during the solar max year of cycle #23, when the solar flux average in F10.7cm was 180 sfu/day. The yearly average for the intervening years was 96 sfu/day, of course including the lowest solar minimum in many many cycles. [sfu = solar flux unit]
Solar flux for this Sept averaged 147 sfu/day, and for October it was 154 sfu/day. See
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/quar_DSD.txt
For the period from Oct 18-28 the flux averaged 197sfu/day, peaking at 227 on Oct. 23.
When Australia warmed up from this solar activity, so did all parts of the world south of the jetstream in the NH and north of jetstream in the SH, producing many high temp records.
Today’s solar flux dropped to 121. My analysis of SST and solar flux from 1960-now indicates the oceans on average drop in temperature when flux reaches 120 sfu/day, and the temps increase above that level of solar flux.
Please pay attention for the next few months to the DSD report (Daily Solar Data) and see what the temperatures do as solar flux varies. In January the earth is the closest to Sun for the year. If solar flux is high again like it was last Jan-March, when in January it was 160 [peaked at 262 on Jan 4], in Feb it was 170, and 150 in March, we can be sure we will see WARMING from that, as Australia did then.
It’s going to take many years for global temps to drift downward after this solar max is really over, and as the next cycle is expected to be weak, I think global temps are ultimately headed downhill in due time because of it.
Most of the skeptics worldwide are not aware of this – YET.
So forget about human caused climate change – it’s phony, unreal, nonexistent.
The Sun causes warming, cooling, and extreme weather events, not CO2.
Very few of the elite winter over in cold climates. They either live on the mild west coast of the US or have winter homes in FL, the Caribbean or Mediterranean. Bloomberg flies to Bermuda every Thursday.
What’s actually dangerous is the destruction of soil and all the rich life to be found within it. That’s not so much a function of temperature but of land use. If you cut down a load of trees, you expose the soil below to wind, heavy rains etc etc whereas with a covering of trees, even very heavy rainfall hits the ground slower, it is evaporated more slowly and the sponge underneath is more able to prevent run-off, soil erosion etc etc.
The Sahara desert and all the other areas of sand and rock arose long before there were billions of human beings, so I really don’t think that it’s just to do with us. Fire fanned by wind will have had something to do with that. We are generating more of it, to be sure, but not through driving cars per se. More to do with ripping up forests, over-grazing.
Yes, warmth is best able to host biodiversity, but it is but one factor in land-based balanced ecosystems. Soil and its preservation, its constant regeneration and its appropriate management is equally important.
Cold is a killer if you don’t know how to live with it. Minus ten is probably a bigger killer than minus forty, since those living with minus forty either know how to live with it or they die very quickly. Those exposed to minus ten may be a little more sanguine as you don’t die in 15 minutes from minus ten and people don’t design houses as well for the occasional minus ten as they do for brutal winters where survival depends upon professional insulation, proper clothing/skin protection and the ability to source and store food under extremely unfriendly conditions……
“Cold is a killer if you don’t know how to live with it.”
So you’re saying tropical animals and plants just don’t know how to cope with cold and that’s why the biodiversity and bioproductivity at the poles is so low?
Stupid critters!
Also, in the world’s subtropical desert belt, days can be hot, but nights are cold.
The fact remains that the lush, moist tropics teem with life, while the cold, dry polar deserts are relatively devoid of it.
Early or record snow is just a thing of the past.
Don’t worry Jimbo…
…
November 1st…….daily records
..
KHDN Hayden / Yampa, CO…………66.2 °F …..new record +3.6 degrees
KEGE Eagle County Regional, CO..69.8 °F …. new record + 2.8 degrees
+KBPI Big Piney, WY…………………..60.1 °F ……. new record +2.2 degrees
KVEL Vernal, UT……………………….. 68.0 °F ……..new record + 1.0 degrees
KCPR Casper, WY………………………71.1 °F …….new record +1.0 degrees
KGJT Grand Junction, CO……………73.0 °F……..new record +1.0 degrees
You are aware, are you not, that weather stations now regularly cook their books to make fake records?
And even if parts of CO, WY & UT are warmer than usual, most of the rest of the US isn’t.
juan, when you post information like that can you please provide a link. I can’t defend you if someone accuses you of making stuff up, which I’m sure you have not.
@milodonharlani
…
I don’t know if they regularly “cook the books”……….but when it comes to weather, if it’s cold in one place, it’s also warm in another. That’s what makes weather interesting.
Don’t know where you live, but I would urge you to take your own temperature readings & compare them with NOAA’s nearest station to you. Doing so might well produce in you the same outrage it does in me. When confronted, NOAA staff know they’ve been busted.
My family farm has WX records continuous from the 1870s. They agreed well with local official “data” until the past few decades, when “climate science” became so abysmally corrupted. NOAA & NASA don’t just “adjust” past observations, but intentional alter current ones. It’s an outrage.
But, yes, WX differs across the US & other large swaths of the earth’s surface. But on average it’s cooling, not warming, despite an alleged steady rise in CO2, ie beneficial plant food.
@milodonharlani
..
” But on average it’s cooling, not warming,”
…
Citation please?
RSS shows cooling in this century. The surface station “record” so manipulated by NOAA, NASA & HadCRU has to be bent, spindled, folded & mutilated even to maintain flatness since the late 1990s. UAH satellite observations show less cooling than RSS, but the fact remains that, at best, earth has now suffered about as many years of flat to cooler temperature than it enjoyed warming from c. 1977-96.
Which is only to be expected, since cooler & warmer intervals alternate naturally in about 30 year cycles, in tune with the PDO & AMO. No “human fingerprint” is detectable during the period of rising CO2 since the end of WWII.
@milodonharlani
..
1) RSS doesn’t show “cooling” =====> http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/plot/rss/trend
..
2) RSS in fact show “warming” =======> http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:2011/plot/rss/from:2011/trend
….
3) UAH show warming this century ======> http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:2000/plot/uah/from:2000/trend
..
Can you please provide a citation that shows “cooling?”
I did.
See the graph I posted.
@milodonharlani
…
Sorry, your “graph” doesn’t show the the entire 21st century.
You posted: “RSS shows cooling in this century”
…
And you haven’t addressed the fact that UAH shows warming in the 21st century.
“In this century” doesn’t necessarily mean for the whole century.
Nine or ten of its 14 years so far counts as in this century.
@milodonharlani
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If nine or ten of the past 14 years qualifies, so does the past three
..
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:2011/plot/rss/from:2011/trend
…
Your cherries are no sweeter than mine are.
…
Now….what about UAH?
You are missing the point. As usually measured, CO2 has steadily risen since 1996, but, depending upon data set, GAST has stayed flat or fallen. The GCMs did not predict this plateau, so have been yet again shown false.
As for RSS, the trend for the past decade or so remains down, despite the last three years. With the PDO & AMO switching to their cool modes, the longer lasting trend is liable to continue dominant. We’ll see.
While on most time scales since c. 1996 UAH remains flat rather than down, IMO that will change, too. The satellite era began at the end of a decades long cooling trend. Arctic sea ice in 1979 was higher than at any time since c. 1909 & possibly highest in the 20th century. Odds are good that by 2039 or so, its extent will again reach about that level.
juan, I see from the UNsourced information you put up
That is 22.77C. Oh the horror!
It fits in nicely with “Warmth is Good; Cold is the Killer”, thanks.
I’m sure you will complain about the fact that this is “unofficial” …..but it’s a pretty good gauge of the ratio of new highs to new lows which you can track every day.
..
http://coolwx.com/record
…
Enjoy!!
PS….the numbers change hourly, so be careful
Juan:
I hope that the planet is not cooling.
That would be a killer.
Don’t you know?
juan,
“Unofficial” numbers show global warming? What would you say if a skeptic posted unofficial numbers?
…thought so.
And regarding your true cherry picking, let me remind you that the ‘official’ start year for the last of the global warming in this (natural) cycle, per über-alarmist Phil Jones, was 1997.
Jones said in an interview in 1999 that global warming could not be statistically (ie: ‘oficially’) determined to have stopped, until fifteen years had passed. At that time only 2 years had passed, so Jones thought he was on solid ground. Obviously he believed that global warming would resume before now.
But as we know, Jones was wrong. Global warming stopped, and it has remained stopped. Even the IPCC admits that (they call it a “pause”, but same-same).
So you don’t get to credibly pick any year you want. That’s just juggling statistics until you get a short term rise. One of the warmist crowd’s main heroes, Phil Jones (of Climategate infamy), has already stated that we start counting at 1997.
Now, a few folks have gone all arm-waving over the slight differences between RSS and UAH satellite data. If we accept UAH, then global warming merely stopped many years ago, but not quite as far back as 1997. But it still stopped, and all the pseudoscientific nonsense about the ‘hottest year ever’ is nothing but backing and filling; a face-saving climbdown.
So no, you can’t have it your way. Not unless you want to argue with Phil Jones.
As for the rest of us, we know that global warming has stopped. There isn’t any credible argument about that, not even from the IPCC. Sorry it falsifies your CO2=AGW conjecture. But science is about testable facts — not about ‘unofficial’ speculation, which is about all the warmist crowd has left.
You sneaky little fella you. So this is why you did not put the link the first time thus making me suspicious. Now, from the link I see:
What does this “unofficial” data tell me about the effect of Urban Heat Islands? Has this been deducted from the “Unofficial) Record-breaking temperature”?
From the link you eventually provided its says:
So that is what I did. I took a look at the bottom of the page and I read this:
From the unofficial record you pointed to the hottest city. The City of Grand Junction which is the largest city in western Colorado. “KGJT Grand Junction, CO……………73.0 °F……..new record +1.0 degrees”
I maybe mistaken but I do believe that KGJT is a radio station. Grand Junction even has or had a thermometer at the airport.
http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu/pdfs/DenverHeatWave_Revised_April20_2006.pdf
juan, global warming has stopped according to Warmist climate scientists.
=========
UPDATE to the LONG list linked above.
Your ‘unofficial’ link is now showing low records being broken or approached. Put on your coat, cold kills – brrrrrrrrrrrr.
juan, here is Phil Jones for ya. He has been rather quiet of late. I wonder why? See the dates of each statement from Dr. Jones.
Poor juan,
Just another hand-wringing, deceived, would-be scientist who brings to WUWT the cut and paste from some global warming propaganda blog.
Juan, some advice:
Relax, have a beer or sip a little vin; say to yourself “I shall not let the alarmists frighten me”. Say this several times a day, with conviction. Soon you will feel better. I promise.
FLAG OF SOUTH CAROLINA.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/69/Flag_of_South_Carolina.svg
Poor juan,
Just another hand-wringing, deceived, would-be scientist who brings to WUWT the cut and paste from some global warming propaganda blog.
Juan, some advice:
Relax, have a beer or sip a little vin; say to yourself “I shall not let the alarmists frighten me”. Say this several times a day, with conviction. Soon you will feel better. I promise.
This is proof deniers are reptilian because cold-blooded animals don’t do well in cold climates but thrive in warmth. Cranky old conservatives can’t conceive of the fact they live in a cooler region of the world where being warmer is ok but there are already warm regions for which warmer is worse. While cranky old conservatives bleat about those who died during cold winter months forget that for other people summer is killer where people risk death from heat exhaustion. Heck I can imagine cranky old conservatives can’t even imagine parts of the world where it never gets cold enough for it to snow during wintertime.
[Reply: Normally your comment would be snipped for your use of the “denier” pejorative. Please read the site Policy page. In this case, however, your comment has been left so other readers can see the ignorance on display. ~mod.]
Gil,
Where are you getting your misinformation? More people die of cold than of warmth.
It’s more of a case of where you live more people die from the cold. When you live in a warm climate where summer is the killer winter isn’t cold enough to be deadly.