From PhysicsWorld blog: The cover feature of the August issue of Physics World, which is now out in print and digital formats, looks at the Sun – and in particular, at the consequences here on Earth of a “solar super-storm”. As I point out in the video [below], these violent events can disturb the Earth’s magnetic field – potentially inducing damaging electrical currents in power lines, knocking out satellites and disrupting telecommunications.
One particularly strong solar super-storm occured back in 1859 in what is known as the “Carrington event”, so named after the English astronomer who spotted a solar flare that accompanied it. The world in the mid-19th century was technologically a relatively unsophisticated place and the consequences were pretty benign. But should a storm of similiar strength occur today, the impact could be devastating to our way of life.
The feature has been written by Ashley Dale from the University of Bristol, who last year took part in a gathering of space experts to examine and report on the potential consequences of a solar super-storm here on Earth. I don’t want to cause alarm, but as Dale points out, the Earth is, on average, in the path of Carrington-level events every 150 years – which means we are five years overdue.
Reports:
SolarMAX_Executive summary Adobe Acrobat PDF
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SolarMAX_Final report.pdf Adobe Acrobat PDF
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It’s getting wide press: http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/494438/End-of-world-alert-solar-flares-destroy-earth-scientists-warn
This caught my eye:
Apparently they’re not aware this same solar activity has created the coolest summer in memory in the US. Sentient star?
O, fickle hyperbole, where off to come the dawn? To the death stars beyond or a last moment o’er doomed Oceana while it lingers pensive above the waves? Willing pocket turn out lest Grim Reaper’s scythe barren make this mortal coil. Feckless skeptic do you not see the ruin all about?
/sarc, of course. Roosevelt was right – all we have to fear is fear itself – and by extension, fear mongers. I hope this clears moderation before something awful happens to the planet.
Winston says:
August 1, 2014 at 1:54 pm
The same things that protect from nearby lightning strikes/EMP would protect from a Carrington event
One big problem is transmission lines. They are really nice antennas for this sort of thing.
@j ferguson –
That’s more of an EMP (electromagnetic pulse) scenario. Which could be caused by above surface nuclear explosions. A solar storm creates electricity in long straight lengths of metal and wires as the magnetic field passes over them. Just like electricity is created in a magnetic dynamo, except the solar flare is uncontrolled as to intensity and flow direction. Short wires and circuitry most likely won’t generate enough electricity to cause any damage.
Ok so we would know 12 hours for sure of one of these storms hitting with 100 pct probability ? How could I set up computer program to listen to this warning and then short stock market futures as soon as warning came through ? I’m only interested in massive storm and only if it 100 pct probability of hitting earth. Or 99 pct plus.
I looked at NASA website and they have alerts but all different types. They list what seem to be non events that hv zero economic effect on earth.
Program would read from NASA website looking for posting of big event coming towards earth.
The ‘lead time’ counted from the Sun may not be meaningful as there will be too many ‘false positives’. The REAL lead time is only about 20 minutes, from the time the CME hits the ACE spacecraft at L1. Only at that point will we know if the event is the ‘big one’ that can be acted on.
Have only had mumbling replies to question posed our electric utility, B.C. Hydro as to the vulnerability of the $billion worth of “Smart Meters” being struck dumb by a Carrington type event.
Even more interesting and far, far more lethal is what happened sometime near the end of the last glacial period:
Characteristics for the Occurrence of a High-Current, Z-Pinch Aurora as Recorded in Antiquity
Anthony L. Peratt, Fellow, IEEE
http://www.plasmauniverse.info/downloads/PerattAntiquityZ.pdf
Louis says:
August 1, 2014 at 1:38 pm
“these violent events can disturb the Earth’s magnetic field – potentially inducing damaging electrical currents in power lines”
1.Would a surge protector do any good in such an event?
2. Would electrical devices that are turned off or unplugged still be harmed?
3. Would it affect portable devices, such as phones or tablets?
1. It will help. They can burn out from too much power.
2. Better. But nothing is perfect. You still get an induced voltage even if no current. If the insulation is good enough….
3. Possibly.
I’ve just had a thought. I see some strong parallels between the effects of another Carrington event and our Imperial President’s energy policies and of the two it is the latter that is the greatest concern.
Correct me if I’m wrong (and I’m sure someone will) but when lighting hits a substation the ‘interrupter’ is tripped and resets after a few seconds protecting the transformers. Since at worst case a massive CR could hit earth in 8 seconds and trip the ‘interrupter’ would it matter? Wouldn’t we all be dead from that much Gamma Radiation? If a sun storm was known to be on its way if we shut the grid down minutes before it hit would anything be destroyed? I have a transformer sitting in front of me and without any load on it, it is a rock with oil, hitting a rock with oil with a massive EMP will leave a rock with oil as for as I can tell. I think the Carrington class event was at the beginning of our power usage and measures to protect the ‘grid’ back then were non-existent.
So my warmist friends, would it be better to have this event in knock out all power in summer or winter?
Thanks Steele, I’m glad I was wrong about this.
best,,,
I am no expert on these things but I seem to have noticed a deliberate spark gap fitted at the ends of the insulators that hang the cables off the pylons that make up the grid. Do these not protect every wire with a frequent and easy path to ground? Lightning strikes perhaps? I presume this 150 year event is inductive, so would the volts not rise until the spark gap could be bridged. If the gaps can ground lightning strikes without these transformers exploding, why is the Carrington event a problem. Perhaps someone could explain it so us Muggles can understand.
Leif Svalgaard says: August 1, 2014 at 2:34 pm
The REAL lead time is only about 20 minutes, from the time the CME hits the ACE spacecraft at L1. Only at that point will we know if the event is the ‘big one’ that can be acted on.
Would the ACE transmission system survive long enough for the data to be passed on?
Online data is updated once every minute, does CALTEC ( ? ) gets data more frequently.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_2h.html
Would a powerful CME with leading edge polarised south be ignored, and so risking of getting it wrong rather than issuing a false alarm?
Automatic equipment protection can switch out electrical equipment and lines in a couple of cycles. North south lines affected less than west east lines.
On the subject of solar ejections, I’m more worried about Gammaray Bursts from a nearby supernova than anything our sun might hiccup out.
On a CME from the sun, we would have about 24-48 hrs after the flare before the charged particle front slammed into the ionosphere.
On a nearby GRB, we will have zero warning when it hits. Eta Carinae is one such possibility, but there likly others. Fortunately, it appears we are not in one of Eta Carinae’s polar jet cones, but it is hypothesized we still would receive enough gamma rays to strip off the ozone layer. Another possible source of a GRB in the nearby galactic neighborhood is WolfRayet 104. We may be in WR104’s polar cone, but it is a subject of controversy. On the plus, with a GRB, only the unlucky side of the Earth facing the event would get the lethal gamma radiation flux.
If the Eddy minimum is a Maunder type then the probability of a Carrington event will be low for the next 60 years or so.
Leif Svalgaard:
With only twenty minutes to act, it seems that civilization, as we know it, hangs by a slender thread in case of such an event.
Juggles, a Carrington event would be like a million lightning strikes all at the same time. As a small simulation, one atmospheric ‘Bikini Atoll’ H bomb test managed to black out most of Hawaii for several hours from the distant EMP pulse.
In Florida, everyone should have a ‘gobag’ for hurricanes. Ours has 4 days of FD food, all other necessities (sterno cooker and mess kit, shelter halves, hand bandsaw, waterproof matches, batteries, flashlight, radio…) and 5 collapsed 5 gal water jugs that can be filled quickly if shelter in place is called for.
In Wisconsin, we stock a minimum of 1 week non perishables. Water is not a problem even if the power goes down, since have a hand pump backup well. For the milking barn, backup generator for milking machines and cool tanks with enough diesel for a week was required anyway to keep the cows happy. Not problem, since we burn more than during planting and harvesting seasons, somthe storage capacity was mandatory anyway. Protection against blizzards and tornadoes. We get plenty of both.
It is just that most unprepared people used to their comfy, never challenged suburban/urban ways will get caught out. several days blackout is always possible. The grid could be shut down if a Carrington event was coming. There are now satellites that give warning.
Reblogged this on Sierra Foothill Commentary and commented:
The Knowledge: How to Rebuild Our World from Scratch is available from Amazon. We have taken precautions, with some metal container for our portable electronic devices.
I am amazed and disappointed that this group of skeptics and knowledgeable scientists would react with such alarm to this prophesied “event,” rather than reviewing past experience. Civilization as we know it does NOT hang by a slender thread in case of a Carrington event.
Yep, my answer entirely. Surge protectors protect vital electronics. Cars are Faraday Cages inherently. Lightning bolts REGULARILY STRIKE POWER LINES and are handled by EXISTING LIGHTING ARESTERS… this whole thing is STUFF AND NONSENSE. Promoted by people who have NO IDEA OF MAGNITUDES of physical phenomenon. I think a British neurologist one time put the “60 Hertz power line/biological damage” thing (not directly related, but indirectly related) in perspective by pointing out that the FIELD STRENGTH of electrical impulses in the human nervous system is ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE above that in the fields DIRECTLY BENEATH 345 KV power lines, or YOUR MUSCLES WOULD TWITCH when walking below them. (THEY DON’T.)
Likewise, non of these solar events have ever been implied in human/nervous system interaction.
Having arcs jumping across 1860 telegraph keys …because of a solar event..probably NOT IMPOSSIBLE, and as the grossly exaggerated 19th century New Madrid, Midwestern earthquake (Toppled Chimneys for hundreds of miles, made rivers run backwards, caused the confederate army to surrender 10 years after the Civil War, etc.) the overall effect of such a solar discharge has also, on feeble evidence and extrapolation, be greatly exaggerated. My advice, put this one in the DUSTBIN along with AWG causing zits, pits, writs and the shits…
Didn’t a big one just miss us last year? In fact it did. Maybe the sun got it out of her system…hopefully. http://washingtonexaminer.com/massive-solar-flare-narrowly-misses-earth-emp-disaster-barely-avoided/article/2533727
Of concern, but avoidable. We have satellites that will detect it. Disconnect the grid for 72 hours (I was in the area about 10 years ago when most of the northeast US went dark). Plug back in when it is over.
We may have to redo many satellites or other things, but it will be annoying, not life-threating.
Far more serious (yet ignored) are:
Long delay tectonic areas – the New Madrid fault will flatten Memphis. The Cascadia fault will take out Portland and Seattle with a 9.0 not unlike Japan’s most recent quake. Of note – Global warming is supposed to raise sea-level 1-2 feet. Japan dropped 3 feet and the north west coast will too. Then there’s the Tsunami.
Ice Storms. A prolonged one can collapse power towers and lines breaking the grid. Not to mention the slip-sliding.
Volcanoes. Active. Remember Mt. St. Helens? Ranier is closer to Seattle and check out Google earth satellite or G. Earth for the path of the lahar. Sunday afternoons major roadways are gridlocked, so unless it gives a warning shot and the big one later, the people in the path aren’t likely to survive. And then there’s the pyroclastic flows, the toxic gasses, and the ash (planes won’t be able to go near, and it is the density of sand, so an inch can collapse roofs). And Ranier isn’t the only one in the range. Fortunately, another Crater Lake eruption isn’t likely.
Some see no irony in rolling the paradice:
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/07/melt-out-day-in-paradise.html
Most automobile engines already have Faraday cages around them. They are called Cars.