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Has solar activity influence on the Earth’s global warming?
A recent study demonstrates the existence of significant resonance cycles and high correlations between solar activity and the Earth’s averaged surface temperature during centuries. This provides a new clue to reveal the phenomenon of global warming in recent years.
Their work, entitled “Periodicities of solar activity and the surface temperature variation of the Earth and their correlations” was published in CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN (In Chinese) 2014 No.14.
The co-corresponding authors are Dr. Zhao Xinhua and Dr. Feng Xueshang from State key laboratory of space weather, CSSAR/NSSC, Chinese Academy of Sciences. It adopts the wavelet analysis technique and cross correlation method to investigate the periodicities of solar activity and the Earth’s temperature as well as their correlations during the past centuries.
Global warming is one of the hottest and most debatable issues at present. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claimed that the release of the anthropogenic greenhouse gases contributed to 90% or even higher of the observed increase in the global average temperature in the past 50 years. However, the debate on the causes of the global warming never stops. Research shows that the current warming does not exceed the natural fluctuations of climate. The climate models of IPCC seem to underestimate the impact of natural factors on the climate change, while overstate that of human activities. Solar activity is an important ingredient of natural driving forces of climate. Therefore, it is valuable to investigate the influence of solar variability on the Earth’s climate change on long time scales.
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This study also implies that the “modern maximum” of solar activity agrees well with the recent global warming of the Earth. A significant correlation between them can be found (Figure 2).
As pointed out by a peer reviewer, “this work provides a possible explanation for the global warming”.
See the article:
ZHAO X H, FENG X S. Periodicities of solar activity and the surface temperature variation of the Earth and their correlations (in Chinese). Chin Sci Bull (Chin Ver), 2014, 59: 1284, doi: 10.1360/972013-1089 http://csb.scichina.com:8080/kxtb/CN/abstract/abstract514043.shtml
Science China Press Co., Ltd. (SCP) is a scientific journal publishing company of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). For 60 years, SCP takes its mission to present to the world the best achievements by Chinese scientists on various fields of natural sciences researches.
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Pamela Grey,
Of course you are right, climate is very complex. I removed most of the complexity out it of similar to AGW, in that regard we are both alike. For one, I thought that I had lost the argument completely before the sun went quite after solar cycle 23. There was no reason to think that there would even be a quite sun. All of the solar predictions had the sun continuing on as it had been. Interestingly, I or any body else can go back and reconstruct the cycles that rhyme. Sometimes they are exact and other times they aren’t. I had the sun go quite within a range of +/- a few cycles. Hence I didn’t think it would matter much in that if it came 22 or 23 years from now, laws would have been passed, I’d be completely out of the picture. And certainly, correlation is not causation. I may not know what is causing people to be sick, but if I find the well they are drinking from, there may be something wrong with the water. Certainly, I don’t know, but what I do know is that nobody else does either.
And then there are periods of time when weather affects climate. My main and overriding concern is how can any group of reasonable people decide that the science is settled when there are so many complex variables. I made a decision based upon the best information and consideration available. The worst case if I moved south, I’d be warm. Of course if it gets cold, there is no best case. Others can nit pick over what’s a sunspot and what isn’t. Whether the timing for a change in the climate occurred at exactly the same time as when the sun went active or not. Generally, I looked very carefully at AGW and decided that they were in error. Do I know whether a quiet sun will produce a new LIA? Or an active one will produce more warming. All things being equal, yes, but also no and here’s why. I think this planet is like a low pass band filter. It is specifically designed to keep the temperature within certain limits. (Hint: start from a design point of view. With all the stuff out there, what elements would you incorporate into a planet that would make it for the most part livable?) The atmosphere filters out higher energy waves starting with the ultra violets and going on up, and the lower end the magnetic field blocks lower energies. And from there it’s a sliding scale. An increase or decrease in the opaqueness of the atmosphere has an effect, and so does an increase or decrease in the magnetic field strength. ( We will need a bigger computer ) So you have a quite sun and a decrease in magnetic field strength, more microwave energy? An active sun and a large volcano goes off? And/or ocean oscillations, and other feed backs that are both positive and negative? And to completely add discontinuity to this conversation, Jupiter. Does it matter where this planet is in relation to it’s trip around the sun, and since we are along for the ride, where we are as well? I think it does. Jupiter’s solar year is about the same as a solar cycle. Is it in or out of phase when the sun goes quite or is active?
If you want to see something interesting see if you can find a calendar from China a couple thousand years ago.
Sparks says:
June 10, 2014 at 3:34 pm
Leif, if there are no solar effects on the weather or even climate (as you claim) from the representation of the sunspot cyclical activity and various permutations of these cycles
But, for your information, there is: The solar cycle induces a 0.1 degree cyclic variation of the Earth’s temperature, which is lost in the noise.
then any adjustment is irrelevant,
We care about getting the sunspot number right because we want to learn how the predict the solar cycle and weather in space. The solar cycle is important for planning the lifetime of satellites and space weather is important for management of the health of our space assets and of humans in space. NASA already issues space weather forecasts for a spacecraft in orbit around another planet [Venus].
Prove to me that there is no planetary solar influence…
apart from the difficulty of proving a negative, what do I care what you believe? And there is [as I noted above].
lsvalgaard says:
June 8, 2014 at 8:18 pm
Carla says:
June 8, 2014 at 8:09 pm
But the wavelet analysis is way too cool. You might enjoy it. So have a look at the Magnetic elephant walking through the heliosphere’s room.
Repeating the same nonsense does not help
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You may have missed the boat on this one Dr. S. A nice little refresher on the HK project. (observing solar like stars in the H Ca II lines for their cycles and rotation)
For me I got brief intro to O. Wilson, one of the projects founders. Figured you knew about the project for sure…
Was looking for solar rotation and gee found the grand caravan..
Out of the HK project we learn there is a 7 to 20 year periodicity in solar like cycles. And rotation varies from hmm.. 3 days to 43 days for some solar like stars. And we are able to detect flux modulation through the H and K CaII on these solar like stars.
And the wavelet analysis still looks like magnetic elephant legs walking through the heliosphere in time. (they used the Wolf series and understanding of radiation flux of the sun and solar like stars)
NO REALLY Dr. S., like gargantuous, interstellar size flux tubes, including null points.. the imagery and how it reproduces the magnetic cycle in the wavelet analysis is pretty cool..
lsvalgaard says:
June 11, 2014 at 2:58 am
“The solar cycle induces a 0.1 degree cyclic variation of the Earth’s temperature, which is lost in the noise.”
I call Lief to the stand. 0.1, is this a value you will stand by?
X-ray and UV variation between solar minimum and solar maximum stands at 100% regardless.
The average is irrelevant.
Carla says:
June 12, 2014 at 5:37 pm
“Out of the HK project we learn there is a 7 to 20 year periodicity in solar like cycles. And rotation varies from hmm.. 3 days to 43 days for some solar like stars. And we are able to detect flux modulation through the H and K CaII on these solar like stars. “
This is interesting, I’d like some more information on this please Carla. 🙂