From NASA Mid-level Solar Flare Erupts from the Sun May 8, 2014
The bright light on the left side of the sun shows an M5.2-class solar flare in progress on May 8, 2014.This image, captured by NASA’s SDO, shows light with a 131 Angstrom wavelength, which highlights the extremely hot material in a solar flare and is typically colorized in teal. Image Credit: NASA/SDO› View full disk image
The sun emitted a mid-level solar flare, peaking at 6:07 a.m. EDT on May 8, 2014, and NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory, or SDO, captured images of it.
Solar flares are powerful bursts of radiation. Harmful radiation from a flare cannot pass through Earth’s atmosphere to physically affect humans on the ground, however — when intense enough — they can disturb the atmosphere in the layer where GPS and communications signals travel.
To see how this event may impact Earth, please visit NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center at http://spaceweather.gov, the U.S. government’s official source for space weather forecasts, alerts, watches and warnings.
This flare is classified as an M5.2-class flare. M class flares are on the order of a tenth as strong as the most intense flares, the X-class flares.
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From NOAA’s SWPC, metrics for April are in.
Sunspots are right about where the predictive line suggests.
Ditto for radio flux
And, the Ap magnetic index continues to bump along the bottom as it has done since the regime shift in October 2005, indicating a sluggish solar dynamo:
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Twin peaks again.
From: http://bastionofliberty.blogspot.com/2014/05/a-thorough-demolition.html
Science is entirely encompassed and defined by the scientific method. Scientific hypotheses must be confirmed or challenged by predictions about the outcomes of properly designed experiments that others can replicate. However, the anthropogenic global warming hypothesis cannot be confirmed or challenged by experiments of any sort, for several reasons:
Earth is an “open system,” with a multitude of feedback mechanisms that influence atmospheric and oceanic temperatures; thus, producing a replicable experimental setup is inherently impossible.
There is no way to control or measure the amounts of the various “greenhouse gases” that are emitted per unit time.
The Sun, which is the principal determinant of temperatures on Earth, is a mildly (4%) variable star.
Temperature measurement itself is an inexact matter that’s easily disturbed by environmental fluctuations of all sorts.
Even the most careful measure of temperature is nevertheless a local phenomenon, pertaining only to the immediate region around the measuring device. Thus, the exact placement of those devices, which is inherently a matter of judgment, is far more important to the readings than any other aspect of the matter.
Which is why the warmistas rely on simulations. But simulations, as I have excellent reason to know, are relevant only to the exact conditions simulated — and those conditions cannot, in the nature of things, match the far more complex dynamics of the Earth’s atmosphere and oceans.
So feel free to sneer at anyone who claims that “the science is settled.” Remember what Richard Feynman said about “the infallibility of experts.”
Ed,
You should be an Austrian Economist. They use a similar (and correct, in my view) argument about the same modeling/prediction problems in the economy. Too many variables and unknowns. It is also impossible to find a control group!
I would love to see someone make a control group for the climate system. It’s a question I like to ask people who tell me that the earth is warming due to human influence. “Oh yeah? Relative to what control group?”.
To paraphrase Gny. Sgt. Hartman (R. Lee Ermey) In “Full Metal Jacket”:
“I’m gonna prove mankind is heating the planet if it short d__ks every cannibal in The Congo!”
And it just might.
Ed Scott says:
May 9, 2014 at 12:00 pm
“Earth is an “open system,”
From a thermodynamic point of view, the Earth is a closed thermodynamic system. Discounting the out gassing mass loss, and inbound mass gain from meteors, EM is the only way energy comes in or goes out.
FTA: “Sunspots are right about where the predictive line suggests.”
Yea, but how many times has this predictive line been revised downward…?
Here is a link to the space weather prediction center and also their new Beta site.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
http://origin-www.swpc.noaa.gov/
This recorded live stream (real choppy production) from NASA yesterday provides an unprecedented look at the x class event from the end of march. Yes, the word is used appropriately this time for we have never viewed a solar event like we did that day in March. Cheers!
Ed Scott says:
May 9, 2014 at 12:00 pm
” There is no way to control or measure the amounts of the various “greenhouse gases” that are emitted per unit time.”
Measuring the amounts of greenhouse gasses is very simple. By measuring the concentration of them in the atmosphere, you know the total amount because the volume of the atmosphere is relatively constant. Simply take the ppmv of CO2 and multiply it by the volume of the entire atmosphere, and you will end up with the total amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. By taking successive measurements of said concentration at a known time interval, you can see the accumulation of the emission per unit of time.
Human emissions of GHG can be controlled. For example, NOT running your lawn mower will result in you NOT emitting CO2, CO, NOx and unburned hydrocarbons. Make sure the pilot is burning in your natural gas appliance to prevent explosions and limit the amount of methane released into the air.
When do predictions for the next solar cycle usually arrive?
Oh noessss!! What are all the twits going to do with their comm link screwed up? Next climate scam coming up. If only for one twitting child.
Chuck
You could refrain from all use of energy from any source that uses combustion of any carbon containing substance. Unless one lives in the tropics, that could spell death during winters like our last one.
I’ll believe in the threat of global warming when the so-called environmentalists and our Dear Leader destroy their private jets, quit heating/cooling their homes, and only use walking to get to their destinations.
tenndo…
Using less and using none are two different approaches. Your proscription of using none is absurd.
A question for the sun scientists?
Is the sun a sphere or an ovoid? Does it vary as the magnetic field changes?
Jean Parisot
..
Sphere or ovoid?
..
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/02oct_oblatesun/
chuck,
It’s all one. If cutting back CO2 emmissions to pre-industrial levels will have negligible effect (as even IPPC states) then one absurdity is much like another, don’t you see?
Type – “IPCC”
brians356
No, they are different. I don’t think either you, nor I will consciously stop the consumption of glucose metabolically with out bodies. However, you could trade in the F150 for a moped.
The Sun is an almost perfect sphere with flattening 9 x 10^-6.
Information in the public non-academic domain Wikipedia with reference
Godier, S.; Rozelot, J.-P. (2000). “The solar oblateness and its relationship with the structure of the tachocline and of the Sun’s subsurface”. Astronomy and Astrophysics 355: 365–374. Bibcode:2000A&A…355..365G
http://aa.springer.de/papers/0355001/2300365.pdf 272 KB 10 pages
Suppose I’m a contractor. It’s tough to carry 20 sheets of 4×8 1/2 inch gypboard on a moped. And who’s going to decide how much “less” I use in order to attain a climate goal I believe is pointless? Because let’s be clear, unless you force people to lower their standard of living, you won’t effect the changes you’re looking for.
Doug Huffman…
..
Per your paper…”The solar oblateness was computed with a dynamical up-to-date solar model of mass and density, combined with a recent rotational model ”
….
It’s better to use actual measurements than a “model”
..
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/02oct_oblatesun/
D.J. Hawkins says:
May 9, 2014 at 2:18 pm
http://www.slate.com/blogs/behold/2014/05/08/hans_kemp_photographs_motorbike_drivers_in_his_book_bikes_of_burden.html
Be creative
“Sunspots are right about where the predictive line suggests.”
That predictive line is a smoothed average.
The sun spots would have to stay at or above where they are now for another 3 months for the the smoothed average to reach the predictive line.
D. J. Hawkins,
Who decides would be the Soviet-style party Apparatchiks necessary to enforce the kind of State chuck feels might be justified. After all, what price Saving The Planet For the Children And Other Living Things. (Well, non-human children, anyway.)
But don’t let me put words in your mouth, chuck. Is this all so much devil’s advocacy on your part?
Another point, the sun is currently at peak, the predictive line passed peak months ago and is now falling.
chuck says: May 9, 2014 at 2:19 pm “It’s better to use actual measurements than a “model”
LOL You hold the yardstick then. At what level is knowledge not a model? As I recall, Monadology, direct perception of reality was proposed by Leibniz in the Eighteenth Century.