From the University of Toronto:
Search for life on exoplanets more difficult than thought
A new study from the University of Toronto Scarborough suggests the search for life on planets outside our solar system may be more difficult than previously thought.
The study, authored by a team of international researchers led by UTSC Assistant Professor Hanno Rein from the Department of Physical and Environmental Science, finds the method used to detect biosignatures on such planets, known as exoplanets, can produce a false positive result.
The presence of multiple chemicals such as methane and oxygen in an exoplanet’s atmosphere is considered an example of a biosignature, or evidence of past or present life. Rein’s team discovered that a lifeless planet with a lifeless moon can mimic the same results as a planet with a biosignature.
“You wouldn’t be able to distinguish between them because they are so far away that you would see both in one spectrum,” says Rein.
The resolution needed to properly identify a genuine biosignature from a false positive would be impossible to obtain even with telescopes available in the foreseeable future, says Rein.
“A telescope would need to be unrealistically large, something one hundred metres in size and it would have to be built in space,” he says. “This telescope does not exist, and there are no plans to build one any time soon.”
Current methods can estimate the size and temperature of an exoplanet planet in order to determine whether liquid water could exist on the planet’s surface, believed to be one of the criteria for a planet hosting the right conditions for life.
While many researchers use modeling to imagine the atmosphere of these planets, they still aren’t able to make conclusive observations, says Rein. “We can’t get an idea of what the atmosphere is actually like, not with the methods we have at our disposal.”
There are 1,774 confirmed exoplanets known to exist, but there could be more than 100 billion planets in the Milky Way Galaxy alone. Despite the results, Rein is optimistic the search for life on planets outside our own is possible if done the right way.
“We should make sure we are looking at the right objects,” he says, adding that the search for life within our solar system should remain a priority. He points to the recent discovery of a liquid ocean on Enceladus, one of Saturn’s larger moons, as a prime example.
“As for exoplanets we want to broaden the search and study planets around stars that are cooler and fainter than our own Sun. One example is the recently discovered planet Kepler-186f, which is orbiting an M-dwarf star,” says Rein.
Rein says locating a planet in a habitable zone while being able to obtain a good resolution to model the atmosphere will help determine what’s on the planet.
“There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic that we will find hints of extraterrestrial life within the next few decades, just maybe not on an Earth-like planet around a Sun-like star.”
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/04/23/1401816111
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I think it’s simpler than that: ET is hiding in the deep ocean.
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Paul Westhaver says: “Proposal for a modified Drake Equation wherein the result is = 1…”
Interesting, but the Drake Equation is a canard. We have no idea what most of the factors are and are working mostly with P.O.O.M.A. numbers. As Fermi said, “Where is everybody?” Given the age of our galaxy, intelligent life would have had a long time to make itself known. So far, silence. See the link below.
I’ve also seen it speculated that not only must a life-bearing planet lie within the Goldilocks Zone, it must also have a good-sized moon to stir the primordial ooze, create tides, etc., etc. If so, other life in the universe is even less likely. A moon our size is a rarity, and the collision necessary to create it (the most popular theory, so far) would also be a rare event. I think we’re alone, and I’m perfectly okay with that, Earthling slime…er, I mean, my fellow Earthians.
http://books.google.com.au/books?id=aC8Baky2qTcC&pg=PA35&lpg=PA35&dq=Drake+equation+nonsense&source=bl&ots=yFTJIjg3y-&sig=NXfhr5maQUZ35fBGFV6PIsI5QJI&hl=en&ei=y21KTaL7OI2-uwOJ15zQDw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=5&sqi=2&ved=0CDoQ6AEwBA#v=onepage&q=drake&f=false
Seriously though, the SETI project is just a clear and unequivocable example of how we (humans) just do not grasp the concept of deep time. A clear grasp of that depth probably goes a long way to answering the Fermi paradox, “Where are they.”
Ignorance is bliss eh? Personally, when I think of the money spent on CACW and my poor income, where I have to shop for specials and pay off bills in installments, when you age ‘life ain’t meant to be easy.’ But despite this, I still wonder if we have been visited many years ago by some benevolent ET who helped us to survive. Yeah, I have read 2001 Space Odyssey, and seen the movie. I was glad I had read the book first or I may never had understood the film.
the moon, beyond the obvious tidal forces stirring the ooze and seeding early plate tectonics, may also rotationally stabilize earth’s spin axis orientation to prevent a disasterous gyro tipping lasting a million years or less. such periodic spin tipping on Mars may trigger the periodic polar melts in its past.
But beyond all the improbabilities of the numerous rare events that allowed our earth to produce technologically advanced, sensient life, the element of deep time and the likely brevity of our period technology before our resources are exhausted still remains as the answer to Fermi’s question.
“Where is everybody?” My answer to Fermi Paradox is ETs live in the worlds they created in virtual reality. Like the Matrix movie except there are no biological bodies attached to computers. Carbon-based life is so 20th century. ETs are super intelligent machines. Each one is a god in its own virtual world populated with equally intelligent virtual beings. Without biological bodies, they don’t reproduce babies. They create virtual beings.
This is also the future of humanity. Robots will not take over the world. Instead we will become intelligent machines. Robocop is so lame. It’s like trying to put a four-cylinder engine in a horse. Eventually we’ll give up and say why don’t we get rid of the horse and just build a Lamborghini?
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I think the ETs all “ascended” as in “Stargate-SG1”. We just need to find one those “head-sucker” things to find out what is really going on.
Hi Gary,
Simply put, you did not answer my actual question. I believe the evidence is there, I just believe it has been misinterpreted, due to a presupposition that God does not exist, hence the need for long ages. I also believe we are never going to get to a point we can say without any certainty any of pre history, because no one has recorded it as an eye witness.
Most of it will remain, we think, we believe, we feel, the theory is, the consensus is, and other faith based statements.
But again, you claim the proof is there, ok that’s awesome, put up a link which “proves” how life started from non life, without any faith statements, and without God.
That’s all I ask for, proof, because as you say, evolution is proven, so pony up the proof for the proven theory.
Oh and before you jump up and down to tell me I have not read the info, I can tell you I have, my presupposition starting point is just different to that of anti theists. Being on a disability pension, lets me have a whole lot of time to read and study both sides of the argument.
James Strom Apr 29 6:57pm says “If they are out there, surely one or more of the ET civilizations would have sent somebody to say “hello”?“. There’s a planet just like ours in our own galaxy (so it’s relatively very close), whose inhabitants sent out a signal about 50,000 years ago which was designed to be recognised and understood by any species with the basic equipment that could receive it. It arrived at Earth a few thousand years ago, and there was no-one able to detect it. In the message, they said that if they didn’t get a reply, they woud try once more. So their next message will arrive in about 100,000 years’ time. I suspect that there will be no-one able to detect it then either, in which case they will record Earth as never having had intelligent life. Thus does science progress.
My question is, why haven’t the Aliens contacted us yet? Are they waiting for us to solve our problems first, create world unity, and THEN start contacting us little by little (to reduce the shock and awe of their millions of years ahead of us technology)? Would make sense, since the ones capable of coming here and contacting us would very likely be more mature (physically and spiritually) and have some sort of prime directive (like Star Trek). I’m sure there are billions of sentient alien races, and makes sense to me that you wouldn’t want to mess any until they are sensible to work with.
Neil: “But again, you claim the proof is there, ok that’s awesome, put up a link which “proves” how life started from non life, without any faith statements, and without God.”
The starting of life from non-life has nothing to do with evolution, they are not related problems. The fact you don’t seem to understand this would tend to imply you also know next to nothing about evolution.
george e. smith – “So far as I know, life on earth began some 4.5 billion years ago, and I’ve seen no evidence of it ever beginning again anywhere in the universe, including on earth.”
This is the real ET problem!
Somehow we deduced 1 -> many long before 1 – 2 – many. The falsifiable statement about life must be that we are alone.
First we thought there was life in the centre of the hollowed out Earth, then we thought there was life on The Moon, then on Venus, then on Mars, then in Jupiter’s cloud tops, then Titan. Now we are thinking “oceans” under Enceladus & and maybe with just a bit bigger telescope or space probe. Is there a pattern here? When does a scientifc theory become pseudoscience? How long should we expect to wait for confimation of a scientific hypothesis before we can say: “Its falsified!” 50 years? 100 years? 1 million years? Never ???
Then again, maybe ETs have just left. And taken their garbage too. We “left” the African Savanna a hundred thousand years ago and now live somewhere else, more safe, of our own making. An “intelligent” chimp in Africa today may look around from the top of its acacia tree and wonder if there any other advanced apes around and conclude after a few days that it was alone. Maybe ETs have left our universe and live somewhere “safer” & of their own making? And taken their rubbish too. Like we are starting to do now. They would be ultimate “environmentalists” !
Now THAT has got to be the ultimate unverifiable theory 🙂
@Eric Worall:
Wyndham’s Chrysalids: not only readable but very relevant to this day.
“””””…..Gunga Din says:
April 29, 2014 at 9:23 pm
Isn’t it true that there is more evidence of CAGW than there is of ETs?……”””””
Well there’s no evidence of ETs, so the bar is set pretty low.
And all this nonsense about ets being super intelligent.
This is anthropocentric rubbish.
There’s not a shred of evidence, that intelligence enhances survival. It’s just another gimmick Mother nature is giving a shot to prove itself.
So the dinosaurs survived for 140 million years, just by being big and mean and ugly.
Higher Intelligence has had maybe 100,000 years, and the prospects for many more don’t look too great. We might all blow ourselves to kingdom come (or hell and gone) in just the next generation.
MN doesn’t give a hoot for us. We are on our own, to make it or break it, and if we break it, the cockroaches or termites may take over. Earth will survive; with or without us.
Mike Jonas’ 100,000 year round trip example, is way overkill. If et is 50 light years away, the round trip for our e-mail is 100 years. If they reply immediately, no one will remember just what the hell we asked for.
So it’s up to us to fix this place up, or we’ll become buried fossils.
I don’t know if the SETI nonsense started with “Drake’s equation” or not. Talk about theoretical gobbledegook BS. You multiply together a whole string of factors; not a single one of which is known, and voila! you have a near infinite number of et species out there much smarter than we are; well maybe that’s why they are staying away from our looney toons..
Has anyone ever seen the missing denominator of Drake’s equation ??
That absent denominator, is the product of all the improbabilities of all the necessary chemical syntheses, that must occur, in the correct sequence, in order to get the most rudimentary elements of even the lowest form of life.
Much is known about some of these reactions, and many that have been researched have been shown to reach dead ends. Some essential components of living organisms, are the result of syntheses, that are energetically discriminated against, compared to a different molecule that forms more easily, but exists in no known organism. Well you get the idea. There are as many large factors in the denominator, as there are (and unknown) in the numerator. The result is quite indeterminate.
So there is a near infinity of stars, which is why (evidently) the place must be teeming with intelligent life.
Poppycock ! If there are ETs out there, the night sky would be white, instead of black.
The stars recede MUCH FASTER than they increase in numbers; which is why the sky is black despite the near infinity of bright stars.
So ET also, gets further away from us, the more likely his very existence increases.
So nyet on finding anything out there.
And no I don’t believe some magician conjured up the whole thing either.
I thought that they already had a few specimens in a shed somewhere near Roswell in New Mexco/?
Gary Pearse says:
April 29, 2014 at 7:59 pm
Neil says:
April 29, 2014 at 6:47 pm
“This is precisely why I do not believe evolution. The whole reason for looking for et is to prove evolution.”
It’s proved. Study it, if you dare. Study paleontology. Study the development of the horse from paleo progenitors. Study the “keyhole” brachiopod. Then think about it.
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I don’t believe any of that that constitutes proof. Just assertions and rubbish conclusions.
Luv ya Konrad at 6.08pm. Best comment on this malarkey, can we catch up for a beer sometime Lol
Aragh-go-on-with-yer. This whole thing is one of them “conspiracy ideation” thingymajigs? And ye fell for it.
We need to arrest those deep oceans! LOL
george e. smith says:
April 29, 2014 at 11:49 pm
There’s not a shred of evidence, that intelligence enhances survival. It’s just another gimmick Mother nature is giving a shot to prove itself.
So the dinosaurs survived for 140 million years, just by being big and mean and ugly.
But the little ones with feathers outlasted the big mean ones. 🙂
Hi Ad,
Hate to bust your bubble, but it has everything to do with evolution. The whole reason scientists have started looking off world for the start of life is the inability to explain how life started. But the question still remains, take God out of the equation, how did life start from non life?
And I do understand quite a lot about evolution as I have studied it in detail, not the crap you get in high school text books, but papers by top level scientists from many fields of study. it seems that it is in fact you who do not understand evolution, because if you do not have life to begin with, you do not have anything to evolve, so the question still stands, is valid and your ad homonym attack on what level of understanding you think I have, puts you in the same argument bracket as a global warmist.
But the question still remains, take God out of the equation, how did life start from non life?
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the bigger question is how did God start from non God? what was the process that created God?
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bushbunny says:
April 29, 2014 at 7:11 pm
I rather like Stephen Hawking’s comment. He didn’t think it possible that any ET’s would be able to reach earth, but if they did, “Expect the worse the contact might not be pleasant” I tend to agree But – if they don’t arrive physically, they could send robot probes. Much like we do. And where are our defense radars? Surely they would pick them up and I believe this has happened.
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We already have radar-resistant aircraft. Any purported aliens could completely evade radar. If they were detected, it would be by their choice….
But the little ones with feathers outlasted the big mean ones.
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Blessed are the meek: for they shall inherit the earth..