Robert B. writes via email with a question that we’ve just never asked readers to weigh in on here before in post, though has been bandied about in comments. I figure it is about time to put it to rest by asking up front.
He asks:
What is the perfect temperature of Earth? I’m assuming that climate change-related taxes will be used to bring our planet back to the perfect temperature, and I need to know when that has been reached.
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
H.R. says:
March 8, 2014 at 6:25 am
Fact: at every given moment, some thermometer somewhere on the earth is registering the perfect temperature.
There you go – one just has to keep moving around to always experience the “perfect temperature”.
I was told that Charles II while he founded the Royal Society was obliged to do some original research and present it for “peer review” so he could qualify to be a Fellow. His subject was this very question.
He collected weather data from all over the known world and his analysis showed that the English climate was the optimum, as a man could work outside for more days in the year than in any other country.
So if the climate is good enough for Charles II FRS, and does not seem to have changed very much since his time … then England’s climate is the one to aim for.
[PS I heard Bing Crosby being interviewed on why he liked coming to England for his golf … and he said “it’s the weather .. England is the only place in the world where you can experience all four seasons in one day”]
Like Monty Python’s dinosaur theory: Hot in the middle and cold at each end.
Cooler than it was in most of the US in February, since the anomoly was still positive
At which layer?
Actually, this is easy. Start with the human population of earth and divide by the distance from the deepest part of the oceans to the upper portion of the stratosphere in ft, Divide this again by the circumference of the Earth in miles, This will give us roughly 1,65 C or 55.77F….
Now, if we take into consideration all the uncertainties, the lack of data and the gaps in knowledge, this should bring us to approximately 68.36 F. The perfect GAT.
Here it is again, but certainly on topic here, and always a good read:
The accepted ‘mean global temperature’ of the historic past has apparently changed markedly over the last few decades:
In 1988: the average global temperature was said to be 15.4°C
Der Spiegel, based on data from NASA.
http://wissen.spiegel.de/wissen/image/show.html?did=13529172&aref=image036/2006/05/15/cq-sp198802801580159.pdf&thumb=false
1990: it was 15.5°C
James Hansen and 5 other leading scientists claimed the global mean surface temperature was 15.5°C. Also Prof. Christian Schönwiese claimed the same in his book “Klima im Wandel“, pages 73, 74 and 136. 15.5°C is also the figure given by a 1992 German government report, based on satellite data.
1999; 14.6°C
Global and Hemispheric Temperature Anomalies – Land and Marine Instrumental Records Jones Parker Osborn and Briffa http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/jonescru/jones.html
2004: 14.5°C
Professors Hans Schellnhuber and Stefan Rahmstorf in their book: “Der Klimawandel”, 1st edition, 2006, p 37, based on surface station data from the Hadley Center.
2007: 14.5°C
The IPCC WG1 AR4 (pg 6 of bmbf.de/pub/IPCC2007.pdf)
2010: 14.5°C
Professors Schellnhuber and Rahmstorf in their book: Der Klimawandel, 7th edition, 2012, pg 37 based on surface station data.
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/jonescru/jones.html
2012 14.0 °C
Press Release No. 943 World Meteorological Society Globally-averaged temperatures in 2011 were estimated to be 0.40° Centigrade above the 1961-1990 annual average of 14°C. http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/pr_943_en.html
2013 Wikipedia: 14.0°C
Absolute temperatures for the Earth’s average surface temperature have been derived, with a best estimate of roughly 14 °C (57.2 °F).[11] However, the correct temperature could easily be anywhere between 13.3 and 14.4°C (56 and 58 °F) and uncertainty increases at smaller (non-global)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record
http://notrickszone.com/2013/04/21/coming-ice-age-according-to-leading-experts-global-mean-temperature-has-dropped-1c-since-1990/
I’m with Prof Dyson on the validity (or lack therof) of a “global average temp”. That said I’ll be happy with anything that keeps us
A) Out of another ice age.
B) Not destroying agriculture
Now ice ages do a lot more damage than warmth to agriculture but if you look at the eras when plant and animal life abounded the average was substantially higher (20+ C instead of our current 14 C) so just to be safe lets pick a number in between as it is as valid a SWAG as anything else. 17 C it is. This is subject to change as the science improves.
What was the average temp in 1979? That seems to be the point of all origin.
been asking warmenists this for years ” What is the “Right” average temperature of the Earth, and when have we ever been that temp for more than a Decade? … you know, I never get a clear answer to that.
The question is pertinent and ridiculous all at the same time. It’s ridiculous that it has to be asked.
The perfect temperature would be the temperature it was at the time of taking it.
And the perfect climate would be the range that includes all anomolies.
Averages i’m uncertain about…it’s like my car averaging 20MPH while not moving.
Thanks for the interesting articles and comments
Another question could be, “How does one go about calculating the Earth’s current temperature?” We’ve see plenty of statistical gymnastics to calculate an average temperature, but how does that number relate to actual observed temperatures around the planet?
Paul,
That’s my response as well.
The answer seems to be: The “Average temperature of the Earth” is a meaningless crock.
That number could be calculated so many ways, with infinite possibilities for fraud and faking (as we’ve seen), that it is totally meaningless.
I’m sure Robert B. meant the average temperature of the earth (currently estimated at ~15C after Hansen reduced it to 14C for early 20th century to show greater warming). Assuming the goal posts don’t get shifted again, we can make the green movement stop clambering for taxing carbon (dioxide) if we chop off the 0.7C we’ve experienced since the 19th C. Yes, this is what all the fuss has been about, the reason globe graphics are all orange and red. Maybe they could be made to be happy if they could be convinced to accept the flat temps of the last 1/6 of a century – it would be a relief to their anguish over it and probably a relief to their spouses and small pets (borrowed from remark a few years ago by a commenter – IIRC it was gunga din).
I think “perfect temperature” is dependent on ones position. If your a CAGW nut then it will always be higher and the taxes your forced to pay (to make you feel good) will be 100%. You make it we take it, as long as it is those who dont believe in CAGW who are the ones taxed to death and you receive a hand out.. CAGW’ers are all about taking from others to support themselves with no change in their lifestyles.. Stalin, Mao, Marx, Hitler all had similar versions of this same tactic as it was never about the earth but whom they could control. Ottmar Edenhofer pulled back the curtain for us all.
” But one must say clearly that we redistribute de facto the world’s wealth by climate policy. Obviously, the owners of coal and oil will not be enthusiastic about this. One has to free oneself from the illusion that international climate policy is environmental policy. This has almost nothing to do with environmental policy anymore,”
Opp’s i forgot attribution for Edenhofer’s remarks: http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2010/11/18/u-n-official-admits-we-redistribute-worlds-wealth-by-climate-policy/
Tim Ball says:
March 7, 2014 at 5:44 pm
“Nobody asked it because it is a stupid question. ”
It is nevertheless the question that the warmists must answer. They claim that more than a 2 deg C rise (from here? from a 30 year average?) must not be exceeded. Fine. Let’s have the exact absolute temperature and make the IPCC declare it as the desired perfect temperature of the planet; 2 deg C above which lies thermal runaway and the end of all lifeforms.
Gary Pearse says:
March 8, 2014 at 8:30 am
“I’m sure Robert B. meant the average temperature of the earth (currently estimated at ~15C after Hansen reduced it to 14C for early 20th century to show greater warming). ”
You are off by 1 deg C… Hansen DID cool the past much more; because we are ALLEGEDLY now at…
14 deg C…
Absolute temperature of the earth
http://notrickszone.com/2013/04/21/coming-ice-age-according-to-leading-experts-global-mean-temperature-has-dropped-1c-since-1990/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/26/why-arent-global-surface-temperature-data-produced-in-absolute-form/#comment-1550024
Our global temperature is often depicted as an ‘anomaly’ ie +0.7 C …. so much above or below the mean global temperature: 2012 Press Release No. 943 World Meteorological Society. Globally-averaged temperatures in 2011 were estimated to be 0.40° Centigrade above the 1961-1990 annual average of 14°C.
But, the accepted ‘mean global temperature’ has apparently changed with time: From contemporary publications:
1988: 15.4°C
1990: 15.5°C
1999: 14.6°C
2004: 14.5°C
2007: 14.5°C
2010: 14.5°C
2012 14.0 °C
2013: 14.0°C
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/11/
“Global Highlights
The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for November 2013 was record highest for the 134-year period of record, at 0.78°C (1.40°F) above the 20th century average of 12.9°C (55.2°F).”
So we were at 12.9+0.78 = 13.68 deg C in NOV 2013.
So NCDC admits that in NOV 2013 the globe was coolest since beginning of Global Warming Research.
This Global Warming is sure a wicked thing.
1988: 15.4°C
Der Spiegel, based on data from NASA.
http://wissen.spiegel.de/wissen/image/show.html?did=13529172&aref=image036/2006/05/15/cq-sp198802801580159.pdf&thumb=false
1990: 15.5°C
James Hansen and 5 other leading scientists claimed the global mean surface temperature was 15.5°C. Also Prof. Christian Schönwiese claimed the same in his book “Klima im Wandel“, pages 73, 74 and 136. 15.5°C is also the figure given by a 1992 German government report, based on satellite data.
1999 14.6°C
Global and Hemispheric Temperature Anomalies – Land and Marine Instrumental Records Jones Parker Osborn and Briffa http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/jonescru/jones.html
2004: 14.5°C
Professors Hans Schellnhuber and Stefan Rahmstorf in their book: “Der Klimawandel”, 1st edition, 2006, p 37, based on surface station data from the Hadley Center.
2007: 14.5°C
The IPCC WG1 AR4 (pg 6 of bmbf.de/pub/IPCC2007.pdf)
2010: 14.5°C
Professors Schellnhuber and Rahmstorf in their book: Der Klimawandel, 7th edition, 2012, pg 37 based on surface station data.
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/jonescru/jones.html
2012 14.0 °C
Press Release No. 943 World Meteorological Society Globally-averaged temperatures in 2011 were estimated to be 0.40° Centigrade above the 1961-1990 annual average of 14°C. http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/pr_943_en.html
2013 Wikipedia: 14.0°C
Absolute temperatures for the Earth’s average surface temperature have been derived, with a best estimate of roughly 14 °C (57.2 °F).[11] However, the correct temperature could easily be anywhere between 13.3 and 14.4°C (56 and 58 °F) and uncertainty increases at smaller (non-global)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record
http://notrickszone.com/2013/04/21/coming-ice-age-according-to-leading-experts-global-mean-temperature-has-dropped-1c-since-1990/
Apparently the correct answer is whatever the global temperature estimate was for 1950, since that’s what we keep comparing to to show how bad things are getting.
Sparks says:
March 7, 2014 at 11:47 pm
Well, thank you belatedly, although I’m not sure if you’ve just fixed my informal language or if you reject my boldness and ambition to also demand the proper administration of solar activity and Earth orbit.
The perfect temperature would be the one that maximizes the growth of good plants but minimizes the growth of bad plants, it would leave only thick old good ice but never thin fragile bad ice, glaciers would all be healthy and growing, not sickly and shrinking, and obviously would minimize the need for energy so that all carbon foot-prints would be minimized because Carbon is a pollutant. Oh, and the correct temperature would keep bad diseases contained in the south so they can’t spread to the north, and all ski resorts would have lots of snow, and there will never be droughts or storms ever again… I think that is the perfect temperature…yup.
(I still do not get what a “carbon foot-print” is, but its really important)
for the warmists temp is linked to rise in sea levels so they would ask how much higher do u want your sea level? 5M? so easy question for them to dodge
If you don’t like the temperature, just adjust the temperature data. Much easier to do. (just in case it is not understood, sarc)
You are welcome; but seriously, you laid out some thought provoking mental images of climate comfort and exhilaration.
Definitely supports those mental images! And yes, sigh!
Did a bonefish trip to the Bahamas; there is something otherworldly about wearing shorts and short sleeves in pleasantly warm winter nights, pleasantly warm days, short periods of warm heavy rain followed by warm sunshine. ;->
Not a skill, perhaps a little knowledge; but orchids are generally tough buggers and greatly appreciate being left alone, perhaps even ignored. Those growers who dote on their plants with frequent water and fertilizer are the ones who have difficulty with orchids. Nothing kills many orchids quicker than an over attentive water can wielder.
That and knowing which orchids will not like your home climate/environment. I mainly stick to the Cattleya tribe with a few phragmipediums and paphpedilums thrown in.
Now my fruit trees are suffering from a lack of attention…
Nah, won’t work. My wife’s feet are also cold until the temperature is 90F or higher.
We bought those buckwheat pillows that you hit with a dose of microwave energy and they exude warmth for a long time. They’re a modern version of the coal pan bed warmer or hot water bottle. We often joke about making some buckwheat boots for her. She has a couple pair of Ugg wool boots that she wears darn near all year. It does make setting the A/C temperature somewhat exciting at times. Did I mention she is a redhead?
Robert of Texas says:
March 8, 2014 at 9:24 am
I know what it is and you are right, it is important. I was burning slash once as part of fire mitigation on our property. I needed something from the house and left carbon footprints all over the floor. Also, our dog did it later that day. I remember we were both talked to about these incidents.