David Archibald has written a new book. In short: Baby boomers enjoyed the most benign period in human history: fifty years of relative peace, cheap energy, plentiful grain supply, and a warming climate due to the highest solar activity for 8,000 years. The party is over—prepare for the twilight of abundance.
Archibald provides this overview.
The book’s preface provides a taste of the contents and gives some background to it.
Preface
This book had its origins back in 2005, when a fellow scientist requested that I attempt to replicate the work a German researcher had done on the Sun’s influence on climate. At the time, the solar physics community had a wide range of predictions of the level of future solar activity.
But strangely, the climate science community was not interested in what the Sun might do. I pressed on and made a few original contributions to science. The Sun cooperated, and solar activity has played out much as I predicted. It has become established—for those who are willing to look at the evidence—that climate will very closely follow our colder Sun. Climate is no longer a mystery to us. We can predict forward up to two solar cycles, that is about twenty-five years into the future. When models of solar activity are further refined, we may be able to predict climate forward beyond a hundred years.
I was a foot soldier in the solar science trench of the global warming battle. But that battle is only a part of the much larger culture wars. The culture wars are about the division of the spoils of civilization, about what Abraham Lincoln termed “that same old serpent that says you work and I eat, you toil and I will enjoy the fruits of it.” This struggle has been going on for at least as long as human beings have been speaking to each other, possibly for more than fifty thousand years. The forces of darkness have already lost the global warming battle—the actual science is “settled” in a way quite different from what they contend, and their pseudo-science and dissimulation have become impossible to hide from the public at large—but they are winning the culture wars, even to the extent of being able to steal from the future.
The scientific battle over global warming was won, and now the only thing that remained to be done was to shoot the wounded. That could give only so much pleasure, and the larger struggle called. So I turned my attention from climate to energy—always an interest of mine, as an Exxon-trained geologist. The Arab Spring brought attention to the fact that Egypt imports half its food, and that fact set me off down another line of inquiry, which in turn became a lecture entitled “The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse”. Those apocalyptic visions demanded a more lasting form—and thus this book.
While it has been an honor to serve on the side of the angels, that service has been tinged with a certain sadness—sadness that so many in the scientific community have been corrupted by a self-loathing for Western Civilization, what the French philosopher Julien Benda in 1927 termed “the treason of the intellectuals.”1 Ten years before Benda’s book, the German philosopher Oswald Spengler wrote The Decline of the West.2 Spengler dispensed with the traditional view of history as a linear progress from ancient to modern. The thesis of his book is that Western civilization is ending and we are witnessing the last season, the winter. Spengler’s contention is that this fate cannot be avoided, that we are facing complete civilizational exhaustion.
In this book I contend that the path to the broad sunlit uplands of permanent prosperity still lies before us—but to get there we have to choose that path. Nature is kind, and we could seamlessly switch from rocks that burn in chemical furnaces to a metal that burns in nuclear furnaces and maintain civilization at a level much like the one we experience now. But for that to happen, civilization has to slough off the treasonous elites, the corrupted and corrupting scribblers. Our civilization is not suffering from exhaustion so much as a sugar high. This book describes the twilight of abundance, the end of our self-indulgence as a civilization. What lies beyond that is of our own choosing.
It has been a wonderful journey of service and I have had many help me on the way. They include Bob Foster, Ray Evans, David Bellamy, Anthony Watts, Vaclav Klaus, Joseph Poprzeczny, Marek Chodakiewcz, Stefan Bjorklund, and the team at Regnery. Thanks to all.
I will give a bit further background to the book. Thanks to an introduction from James Delingpole, I had a meeting with the publisher, Regnery, in Washington in October 2012. At that meeting, the chief editor asked me,”Mr Archibald, what do hope to achieve with this book?”
I replied,”This may sound a bit whacko, but when I started out in climate science in 2005, I thought that if I get to the US Senate, that is as far as I could ever hope to get and I will be happy. I got to the US Senate in 2011 (I gave a lecture on climate in a US Senate hearing room thanks to Myron Ebell of the Competitive Enterprise Institute). With this book, I will write a strategic energy plan for the United States. That is step one. Step two is to implement the plan.”
If I can make it to the US Senate in six years from a cold start and 20,000 km away, anything is possible. So why not aim high?
This is the take-home message of the book: Humanity is in for a rough patch but we can come out the other side in decent shape if we have an eternity of low cost power from thorium molten salt reactors.
Once again, thanks very much to Anthony. I volunteered as his sidekick on his Australian tour a few years ago. I was invited back to Capitol Hill in September last year to give a lecture entitled Our Cooling Climate in a Congressional hearing room. The speaker’s notes are here.
One further thing. If you like the book and think that civilisation would be advanced by other people reading it, please put a review on the book’s Amazon page and that will contribute to how Amazon rates it.
Twilight of Abundance, now shipping on Amazon.
It’s difficult to predict the future.
Thanks to the Russian intervention in Ukraine we have more information about the zealous actions of the EU, the UN, the IMF and the global pact of bansters and that will provoke a lot of thinking among people who long surrendered to the concept of the EUSSR and the Globalist dream.
The first cracks emerged recently when against all odds at this very blog an article was published from our champion elite Bill Gates who cliaimed the world hasn’t been in a better shape than it is now.
Globalist. read centralist concepts always looked nice on paper and many salon socialist was able to win the dispute of the evening but in practice they have all failed.
Thanks to the web we are taking out “The Eternal Middleman” on any level of the economy leaving former powerhouses without any income.
This is causing an enormous power shift.
Not unmentioned should be the role of the Bitcoin which as many people believe is not a replacement for money but a complete digital finaccial infrastructure that will make the old system completely obsolete.
The bitcoin will make an end to central banking and therefore central control.
This means that the banksters will be out of control before they reach their Globalist objecives.
I really am an optimist and see the current hectic as the end of an era which without any doubt will be followed by a much better era.
The current establishment is trying to control progress, reduce consumption and hike energy costs based on lies and that for sure is going to hit the wall.
You can’t stop progress and development.
Human civilization, It’s unstoppable.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-05/warning-americans-money-root-all-evil
R. de Haan says:
March 6, 2014 at 11:37 am
“I reject any malthusian predictions, especially about our energy resources.”
Thank you for posting the Ted Talk by Matt Ridley. I wrote my comment above before I saw your post and the video. The video strengthens my optimism about humanity, but I still worry about the pessimism of Western Civilization. The first few minutes of Mr. Ridley’s presentation are spot on concerning the remarkable global improvements humanity has enjoyed in his life time, yet the majority of people in the West seem to believe just the opposite. Bjorn Lomborg was nearly crucified for pointing out similar optimistic trends in 2001. The notion that we are doomed, despite all evidence to the contrary, is so pervasive, I fear that it is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
<b.China accelerating nuclear
China Moves Forward with New Nuclear Reactors
Whaaaaaaaa, whaaaaaaa, whaaaaaaaaaa. I want my global warming back. I don’t like this cold stuff. Time to move to Cali or Florida. I wonder if Tom or Antony are renting? Hmmm.
Well Dr Libby’s work from the 1970s still stands as the longest running “accurate” prediction of climate. I’m afraid we’re all due some “cold time”. Please don’t let this be the end of our inter-glacial period.
_Jim says:
March 6, 2014 at 8:12 am
re: Convention of the States:
Thanks for the link.
TRM says:
March 6, 2014 at 1:07 pm
” Time to move to Cali or Florida. I wonder if Tom or Antony are renting? ”
No but the house across the street from me is for sale at a great price. 2 bedroom, 2 bath, nice yard on a nice quiet street with a park at the end. About 8 mins to Manasota Beach, has been upgraded, was owned by a nice guy who did home improvements. His cousin came into big bucks and bought them a huge house in a gated community in Orlando, fully furnished along with a new car. Asking $100,000 (no I am not on commission or have anything to do with this sale)
Jim Clarke says:
March 6, 2014 at 12:32 pm
R. de Haan says:
March 6, 2014 at 11:37 am
“I reject any malthusian predictions, especially about our energy resources.”
Thank you for posting the Ted Talk by Matt Ridley. I wrote my comment above before I saw your post and the video. The video strengthens my optimism about humanity, but I still worry about the pessimism of Western Civilization. The first few minutes of Mr. Ridley’s presentation are spot on concerning the remarkable global improvements humanity has enjoyed in his life time, yet the majority of people in the West seem to believe just the opposite. Bjorn Lomborg was nearly crucified for pointing out similar optimistic trends in 2001. The notion that we are doomed, despite all evidence to the contrary, is so pervasive, I fear that it is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
No, I don’t think so.
People already see how silly they look driving their kids around in trike bikes and they also have seen their electricity bills go through the roof despite the solar panels on their homes.
They only have to get through the phase where they are mad at themselves for being so stupid.
I visited a party where people discussed a ban on plastic bags. I asked them what’s the trouble was with plastic bags. Well they said, the stuff ends up in the ocean.
I said that’s true but not our bags. We have the best disposal system of the world and the best thing we can do is introduce our disposal system but also our sewage and plumbing system and export it to those countries who don’t have any.
They all agreed that was the best idea.
So I think the spell has been broken.
This is the internet age you know.
Instant news about most complex events as they happen.
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=84766
R. de Haan says: @ur momisugly March 6, 2014 at 1:48 pm
“I reject any malthusian predictions, especially about our energy resources.”….
They only have to get through the phase where they are mad at themselves for being so stupid.
I visited a party where people discussed a ban on plastic bags. I asked them what’s the trouble was with plastic bags. Well they said, the stuff ends up in the ocean.
I said that’s true but not our bags. We have the best disposal system of the world and the best thing we can do is introduce our disposal system but also our sewage and plumbing system and export it to those countries who don’t have any…..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Yes most people who do not have a hidden agenda will embrace a reasonable solution to a problem. I have done the same.
As far as pessimism and energy, humans will figure out another source if the regulators and parasite will get off their backs. I believe in human ingenuity it is the blasted government and parasites that I have problems with. They are the ones that have kept us chained to the earth when we could be ranging the solar system.
As for Spengler I really love his sharp pen and can’t say he writes things that are not true, at least for the moment but he too is someone with a Malthusian view and this incredible fixation on problems which were a problem 50 years ago but never materialized.
Just ignore the Malthusian view and the world is in a much better shape.
Maybe we only have to ban gray sunglasses and replace them for yellow and orange colors to tip the balance.
Really.
A friend of mine was suffering from depressions.
When he changed the color of his sunglasses his problems were gone.
We now have people worrying about healthcare.
Well, let me tell you about healthcare.
The problem with healthcare is not a lack of knowledge or innovation but fear for the future.
It could very well be we will see a rise of cots triggered by the old baby boomer generation but the coming years we will see a steep decline in traffic accidents thanks to remote sensor technology. Cars can no longer collide and even drive fully autonomous leaving the driver at the back seat. New medication, therapies and diagnostic systems will revolutionize health care where personal medication thanks to bio markers will start a new revolution. Currently we have 5.400 completely new new therapies underway. At the same time we have the introduction of apps which not only help a healthcare professional but also create new means of self diagnostics. A smartphone with an App help you to diagnose skin cancer. I know it doesn’t work 100% yet but the technology is quickly improving. We all know that early diagnoses reduces treatment costs. Other developments come from the field of food technology. Not only the quality of food will become better but also the ways we produce fresh vegetables and fruits all year around no matter the location will make us completely independent of the weather or the environment.
The ability to couple databases and make analysis is not new but when they were applied to GPS Data from from ambulances and hospital and insurance reports they found that a single traffic marker to separate approaching traffic on a bike lane was resppnsible for 1.500 one sided accidents with bikers over a period of 12 months who simply hit the traffic marker and broke bones in their feet, their legs, their collar bones, arm, wrist injuries and head injuries.
Nobody ever got the idea to remove the traffic marker and remove the cause of so many accidents.
We slowly make our civilization better and every step since the 60’s of the passed century has proved Mathus wrong.
Let’s keep it this way.
Sorry for the typo, That was Malthus of course.
Here’s another story with the potential to break the flood of alarmist reporting coming from our media. Follow the money: http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=84760
R. de Haan says:
Here is a great news story my Hubby mentioned this morning New drug could cure nearly any viral infection: Researchers at MIT’s Lincoln Lab have developed technology that may someday cure the common cold, influenza and other ailments.
(Hubby used to work for Lincoln Lab)
Gail Combs says:
March 6, 2014 at 2:32 pm
R. de Haan says: @ur momisugly March 6, 2014 at 1:48 pm
“I reject any malthusian predictions, especially about our energy resources.”….
They only have to get through the phase where they are mad at themselves for being so stupid”.
Yes most people who do not have a hidden agenda will embrace a reasonable solution to a problem. I have done the same.
As far as pessimism and energy, humans will figure out another source if the regulators and parasite will get off their backs. I believe in human ingenuity it is the blasted government and parasites that I have problems with. They are the ones that have kept us chained to the earth when we could be ranging the solar system.”
I agree, we’re wasting time but it will happen.
If the govenments think it’s no longer worth the effort, private initiative will pick up the challenge.
This is another example how the internet is empowering individuals and their idea’s.
I only have one problem with the lates Mars initiative offering the astronauts a single ticket.
That’s something completely against every fiber in my body.
I think we can turn that into a two way ticket very soon and we have to.
Those who settle for a one way ticket are not fit to go if you know what I mean.
David L. Hagen says:
March 6, 2014 at 12:40 pm
<b.China accelerating nuclear
China Moves Forward with New Nuclear Reactors
China has a sense of urgency that is not felt elsewhere, and for good reason. Its cities are choked in smog, and aside from needing more electricity capacity to power its growing economy, it also needs to find cleaner sources of power and shut down some coal plants. Thus, China has ambitious plans for nuclear power. While China only has 14.6 gigawatts of nuclear capacity as of 2013, it plans to scale up nuclear reactors to a combined installed capacity of 58 GW by 2020. It then hopes to nearly triple that figure to 150 GW by 2030. It has 31 reactors under construction and about 8.6 GW are expected to come online in 2014."
China's problems with smog is the open fire and the household stove all fired by coal
In 20 years [their] problems will be gone.
their problems, sorry.
john says (March 6, 2014 at 8:14 am): “This sounds a bit like Paul Ehrlich/John Holdren lite. The Club of Rome report from the early 1970s, lite.”
I followed the link to his lecture “The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse”. The title for slide 59 is “The Limits to Growth: not discredited, just 40 years early”.
That’s typical of doom-and-gloom predictions: The soothsayer uses the latest technology (animal entrails, astrology, computers) to construct a surefire rock-solid indisputable prediction of apocalypse which turns out to be, er, “ahead of its time, but just you wait, yessiree, you’re doooooomed…eventually!”
Gary Hladik says: @ur momisugly March 6, 2014 at 4:23 pm
john says (March 6, 2014 at 8:14 am): “This sounds a bit like Paul Ehrlich/John Holdren lite. The Club of Rome report from the early 1970s, lite.”….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The actual limits to growth are government regulation.
As E.M. Smith said There is no shortage of stuff. Aside from a few molecules lost to outer space nothing leaves the earth so the “Using up resources” is hog wash.
If you really dig you find the whole problem is the Elite fear the challenge to their position, power and authority by having a middle class. They want to reduce everyone else to serfdom. That is why they are anti-capitalism/private property and pro-socialism/big government. They want to protect the status quo with them on the top of the heap.
They have done a bang up job of it too.
Allan M.R. MacRae says on March 6, 2014 at 10:36 am
You did well Leif.
NASA not so much – as recently as 2006? NASA said SC 24 would be robust.
lsvalgaard says on March 6, 2014 at 10:40 am
A mark of good and honest scientists is that they admit and correct their mistakes. Hathaway [not NASA’s official prediction – they don’t do any] has seen the light years ago and should not be faulted for that old prediction. It is a mark of science to be falsifiable and Hathaway certainly deserves that mark.
Allan again:
Wow Leif, talk about damning with faint praise…
Kudos to Hathaway for being totally wrong in his chosen specialty, but at least he was falsifiable.
I prefer to be correct.
I tried being wrong once and found it totally unsatisfying and have not tried it since – I was very young at the time.
Best regards, Allan 😉
Allan M.R. MacRae says:
March 6, 2014 at 6:21 pm
Kudos to Hathaway for being totally wrong in his chosen specialty, but at least he was falsifiable.
Kudos to Hathaway for admitting he was wrong, or rather that theory he was using was too simplistic. He learned something, and we learned something, namely that that approach didn’t work. Isn’t that what progress in science is all about: learning what works and what doesn’t work. The latter is just as important as the former.
ferdberple says:
March 6, 2014 at 5:58 am
Gail Combs says:
March 6, 2014 at 4:35 am
the sun is constant and has very little to do with the earth’s climate.
================
It is strange however that the Milancovitch cycles provide no explanation for the Little Ice Age, and the Sun has shown itself to be quite variable when it comes to its magnetic cycle.
If the sun is constant, why does the solar (magnetic) cycle length vary? Why does the sunspot count vary? Why does the solar wind strength vary? This does not provide assurance that the Sun is constant, only that certain measures of the Sun are relatively constant.
Climate Science assumes that Climate is drive by watts/meter squared. Since this varies only slightly based on a very limited period of space-based observation of the Sun, it is assumed that the Sun has limited effect on climate.
However, assumptions in science have a very long track record of being proven wrong in the long run. Nature almost always surprises us in ways we never imagined.
For example, there are many observations that suggest there is a 1000-2000 year cycle in climate. Even under the assumption that climate is driven by w/m2, would we be able with modern technology to detect such a long cycle variation in the Sun against the background noise of the solar cycle? I expect not. The sampling period is much too short.
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A nice and very cogent set of statements. Thank you. Your posts are very thought provoking and help us skeptics, be skeptical –which is a good thing! I tend to feel that significant variations in the sun’s output have effects that we do not fully understand and should not be rejected because we can not quantify their effects. I hope in the coming years, we can use observations to find out more… If it cools, it could be coincidence, or it could entice people to find out more!
We live in exciting times indeed.
lsvalgaard says:
March 6, 2014 at 6:54 pm
Allan M.R. MacRae says:
March 6, 2014 at 6:21 pm
Kudos to Hathaway for being totally wrong in his chosen specialty, but at least he was falsifiable.
Kudos to Hathaway for admitting he was wrong, or rather that theory he was using was too simplistic. He learned something, and we learned something, namely that that approach didn’t work. Isn’t that what progress in science is all about: learning what works and what doesn’t work. The latter is just as important as the former.
+++++++++++
Kudos to you Leif! (and many other kudos for your patience with me/us. We learn more by being wrong than by being right, I often say. Having an intellectual humbleness opens up opportunities for learning.
I wish David Archibald success with his new book. I will probably buy it because he has many interesting things to say based on much experience. It will of course go through my filter – and hopefully give me pause to think about the science!
I commented without subscribing… so I’m just subscribing here.
Many people believe that because the weapons have become mass destructive (supposedly, able to bring on doomsday), because there has been so much commerce and interconnection, and because of the UN, we will never repeat the mistakes of the mid 20th century. And I have a bridge to sell you.