Note: See updates below for the ISON ISOFF ISON nature of this comet that has everybody guessing. Picture at right also updated to reflect the new “zombie” status of this comet.
Looks like ISON has disintegrated during its turn around the sun. Given the radiation (estimated temperature 5,000F/2,760C – hot enough to vaporize rock), solar wind, and the tidal-forces (even though smallish, thanks Gavin) associated with its proximity and nearly 800,000 mph speed around the turn about that time, I’m not surprised. Watch the second video below where it goes “poof” (h/t to reader “David”)
NASA’s spaceweather.com reports:
Comet ISON is making its closest approach to the sun, and evidence is mounting that the nucleus of the comet has disintegrated. Watch the head of the comet fade dramatically as it approaches the sun in this SOHO coronagraph movie:
(may take a minute to load)
![sundiver_anim3[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/sundiver_anim31.gif)
The movie spans a day and a half period from Nov. 27th (01:41 UT) to 28th (15:22 UT). In the early hours of the 27th, Comet ISON brightens dramatically, saturating the pixels in the digital camera of the SOHO’s coronagraph. By mid-day on the 28th, however, the comet’s head appears to fade. This is a sign that the nucleus has likely fallen apart. That would make ISON a headless comet–more appropriate for Halloween than Thanksgiving.
Researchers working with the Solar Dynamics Observatory report that they are seeing nothing along the track that ISON was expected to follow through the sun’s atmosphere.
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UPDATE: Watch it go “poof” here:
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UPDATE2: NASA JPL Insider Amy Mainzer tweets some last minute hope that ISON may be “undead”
http://twitter.com/AmyMainzer/status/406179229487742976
A zombie comet, how cool is that?
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UPDATE3: Now it seems back again, but looking entirely different than before. A number of astronomers indicate they don’t know what is left of it, maybe a chunk, maybe a smooshed drawn out nucleus or something else. Image from SOHO’s coronagraph:
By the hammer of Thor, is there really an outbreak of EU infection here?
There is no use trying to argue with them, they happily pick and choose things from the real world, ignore what we know about them, and then start screaming “ELECTRICITY DID IT” until you wish you could make a more Edison-like use of it and treat them like one of the poor animals he electrocuted.
French_Atkins says:
November 29, 2013 at 4:15 pm
In that case, why does every new observation (of comets, of course but of virtually every other heavenly object or phenomenon too) invariably elicit comments from astronomers and science writers whose allegiance to the MS is never in doubt such as:
“This is a surprising/amazing/ extraordinary finding”
Funding, my dear boy. Funding. And there is something to learn from amazing things. Of course, the EU cult already knows everything, so nothing is amazing to them and they don’t learn.
meemoe_uk says:
November 29, 2013 at 4:38 pm
The dust tail is acting like there’s no 3D view motion tricks
The dust tail(s) act differently from the ion tail for well-understood reasons. This whole subject has been understood for at least half a century.
u linked to a special relativity page, which isn’t relevant to ison kinematics,.
If you would care to look: http://www.spacetimetravel.org/aur/node3.html Figure 8 illustrates aberration.
As long as people know what radial alignment should look like they can see ‘the’ ion tail just hasn’t pointed in the right direction.
But you apparently don’t know.
French_Atkins says:
November 29, 2013 at 4:23 pm
Carla says:
November 29, 2013 at 3:55 pm
“Battams emphasizes that it is too soon to tell how big the remnant nucleus is or how bright the resurgent comet will ultimately become. “We have a whole new set of unknowns, and this ridiculous, crazy, dynamic and unpredictable object continues to amaze, astound and confuse us to no end. We ask that you please be patient with us for a couple of days as we analyze the data and try to work out what is happening.”
Nufsaid already, methinks. No translation necessary. Where is the “theory firmly based on observational evidence”?
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Theory.. IMHO…is in a constant state of flux..as in fluxuations…
The understanding of our solar astrosphere from Oort Cloud to solar disk is still evolving. Comet Lovejoy (Dec. 2011) and now ISON, are game changers as they blew the minds of lots of physicists around the world…We may have to change our understanding about somethings..ya think? Lovejoy emerged like it was boingking its way back forth between field lines. woweee..
Max™ says @ur momisugly November 29, 2013 at 5:35 pm
“By the hammer of Thor, is there really an outbreak of EU infection here?”
It is being contained rather effectively, but I get the feeling that the practitioners are completely unaware that they have been thoroughly fisked, again. I have dubbed the two of them: Captain Pompous and his Self-Winding Lackey.
Made my Mrs giggle uncontrollably for a spell.
ISON flies near the sun and there is an Sun Pole Reversal.
.
However much I love the fireworks and the title of this thread, looking at the video’s and images again and seeing other video’s with no “poof” when Ison gets to the black disk of the camera, I conclude there was no “poof” dissipating (parts of) Ison, it was the “loop trick” of the video.
As already indicated:
Gijs says:
November 28, 2013 at 1:09 pm
The CME isn’t the reaction of the nearby coming comet, it’s at the beginning of the sequence, at the start point of the movie where the comet is coming into picture at right. Butt still a magnificent sight!
Jurgen says:
November 29, 2013 at 6:57 pm
===============
Glad you viewed it, fresh eyes.
This looks like a good place to ask dumb questions: could the material from the CME have protected ISON in any way? Could it have obscured the observations? …and the wildest of all – could some of that CME material have altered/enhanced the nucleus? My best guess is no, yes, and no.
By calculating the velocity and direction of the remnant, and comparing that with the expected velocity and direction that was originally forecast for the comet, would it be possible to calculate the ratio of the mass of the remnant to the comet’s original mass?
littlepeaks says:
November 29, 2013 at 9:52 pm
By calculating the velocity and direction of the remnant, and comparing that with the expected velocity and direction that was originally forecast for the comet, would it be possible to calculate the ratio of the mass of the remnant to the comet’s original mass?
No, as we don’t know the force of the out-gassing jets. http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/~yelle/eprints/Yelle04a.pdf
French_Atkins:
Well, it’s good to make predictions. At the moment Karl Battams at http://www.isoncampaign.org/karl/a-trail-of-questions says that ISON is magnitude +5 and fading, which isn’t going to make for a truly Great Comet nor even a naked eye one. But if your electrical theory is right, perhaps it will brighten again? And the mainstream astronomers have confessed they were wrong about the demise, so there still can be a significant nucleus (indeed, like meemoe_uk I think there must be) in which volatile materials could still reside having been protected by outer layers during perihelion.
Rich.
I would like to thank Leif for the work that he does. I would like to admonish him for acting like a child. Many of his comments violate blog policy and it pains me to read his puerile insults.
Just my opinion.
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Brian-Whittaker-www-BrianWhittaker-com-no-ISON-2013-75-720px_1385815130_lg.jpg
So let me get this straight: first comet Ison goes “poof”. Then it comes out?
As our knowledge evolves on sun “escaping” comets it spills over into magnetic fields of the lower corona of our sun.
Probing the Solar Magnetic Field with a Sun-Grazing Comet
Cooper Downs1,*, Jon A. Linker1, Zoran Mikić1, Pete Riley1,
Carolus J. Schrijver2, Pascal Saint-Hilaire3
On 15 and 16 December 2011, Sun-grazing comet C/2011 W3 (Lovejoy) passed deep within the solar corona, effectively probing a region that has never been visited by spacecraft. Imaged from multiple perspectives, extreme ultraviolet observations of Lovejoy’s tail showed substantial changes in direction, intensity, magnitude, and persistence. To understand this unique signature, we combined a state-of-the-art magnetohydrodynamic model of the solar corona and a model for the motion of emitting cometary tail ions in an embedded plasma.
The observed tail motions reveal the inhomogeneous magnetic field of the solar corona.
We show how these motions constrain field and plasma properties along the trajectory, and how they can be used to meaningfully distinguish between two classes of magnetic field models.
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/340/6137/1196.short
Lots of info available on the last comet to escape the LOWER solar corona which was Lovejoy in Dec. of 2011. (outgassing and tensile strength)
And size must also matter as to whether it escapes..
size and composition of the comet
amount of outgassing
tensile strength
direction of travel into the corona (neutral line?)
field foot points
lucky stiff if it doesn’t get hit by a CME or some other interaction region
Max™ says:
November 29, 2013 at 5:35 pm
“By the hammer of Thor, is there really an outbreak of EU infection here?
There is no use trying to argue with them, they happily pick and choose things from the real world, ignore what we know about them, and then start screaming “ELECTRICITY DID IT” until you wish you could make a more Edison-like use of it and treat them like one of the poor animals he electrocuted.”
While scientists claim their model of comets as dirty snowballs is the real deal, they are constantly befuddled, amazed and baffled by what happens in the real world. LSvalgaard says they only pretend to be baffled for funding, in fact they knew all along what would happen due to their perfect theories.
So it’s a pity they cannot tell us what will happen before it happens because they need to lie for funding.
Given LSvalgaards admission of this strategy, I am more than willing to lend the EU people my ear, as they seem to be less corrupt.
“”The Great Comet of 1843 developed an extremely long
tail during and after its perihelion passage.
At over 2 Astronomical Units in length, it was the longest known cometary tail until measurements in 1996 showed that Comet Hyakutake’s tail was almost twice as long. There is a painting in the National Maritime Museum that was created by astronomer Charles Piazzi Smyth. The purpose of the painting is to show the overall brightness and size of the tail of the comet.””
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kreutz_Sungrazers
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/94/Great_Comet_of_1843.jpg
Well ya know, I had to find out what the heliospheric magnetic field strength was for 1843 after reading that little ditty on the “Great Comet of 1843.”
Now where might I find that information?..lol
Oh I know..lol
Page 30 of..
What Geomagnetism can Tell Us about the Solar Cycle?
Leif Svalgaard
Bern, 11 Nov., 2013
http://www.leif.org/research/What-Geomagnetism-can-Tell-Us-about-the-Solar-Cycle.pdf
Which now leads to..
Will we see more Kreutz family comets when the heliospheric magnetic field and cycle is at floor level?
Carla says:
November 30, 2013 at 8:11 am
Will we see more Kreutz family comets when the heliospheric magnetic field and cycle is at floor level?
Yet another puerile comment from me: no, as the magnetic field and cycle have nothing to do with comets coming and going.
Ruthless honesty is a necessary asset in science. This honesty may very well expand to social interaction, depending on the circumstances. That may look like being rude on the surface, but when it is done for the cause of science, and science is your real priority, you should have no difficulty in accepting it. Leif endures ad hominems towards himself patiently. There is a lesson here for some.
Pacman spits out the dot.
Jurgen: Big ditto. I MUCH prefer straightforward discussion. Leif is a master at it.
Sera says:
November 30, 2013 at 3:26 am
“I would like to thank Leif for the work that he does. I would like to admonish him for acting like a child. Many of his comments violate blog policy and it pains me to read his puerile insults.
Just my opinion.”
While I agree that Leif can be very blunt at times, I am sure that this stems from his countless hours on this blog dealing with the same faulty arguments by others (you all know the players), over and over and over again ad nausea.