The WUWT Hot Sheet for Wednesday October 23

WUWT_hot_sheet2

Gore’s 24 hours of climate reality gets panned by greens and scientists alike.

Mr. Gore bases his activism on several key points, all of which are either wrong or unknown. The red text in the boxes below summarizes positions taken by Mr. Gore. The corrections of ICSC scientists follow each box. More.

Al Gore’s “24 Hours of Reality” is backwards | Scoop News

ICSC Energy Issues Advisor Bryan Leyland of New Zealand said, “Gore says we must focus on reality. Reality says that the world has not warmed for the last 17 years even as carbon dioxide, the gas Gore blames for climate disruption, has risen 8%. Reality says that we are near a record low for hurricanes, and other extreme weather is not generally increasing in severity or frequency.”

Leyland concluded, “ICSC scientists explain here that Gore’s claims about science are either wrong or unknown.”

Dr. Ryan Maue:

http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/392721996938633216

And it seems they are playing fast and loose with viewer stats like they did last year…

…when numbers magically jumped. 

As for me, I forgot it was even on yesterday. That and lack of notice in the media shows just how much Gore’s shine has dulled. Oh and then there’s this:

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Awww…

Emotional letter from Greenpeace protester tells of rotting in Russian cell | Environment | The Guardian

It’s very cold now. It snowed last night. The blizzard blew my very poorly insulated window open and I had to sleep wearing my hat. I’m nervous about spending winter here. I have a radiator in my cell but it’s the Arctic breeze that makes the place very cold. I heard that from December Murmansk is dark for six weeks. God, I hope I’m out by then.

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Maybe his earlier work was a crock too?

A paper under open review for Climate of the Past reconstructs summer [June, July, August [JJA]] temperatures in Sweden and Finland over the past ~2,200 years and finds temperatures during the Medieval Warm Period 1,000 years ago and the Roman Warm Period 2,000 years ago were about the same as at the end of the 20th century. The paper also shows excellent agreement between the instrumental record since 1800 and the proxy reconstruction, unlike Michael Mann’s hockey stick “trick to hide the decline” in proxy temperatures after 1960. The paper adds to the published papers of over 1,200 scientists finding non-hockey sticks demonstrating that the Medieval Warm Period was global and as warm or warmer than the present.

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/10/new-paper-finds-summer-temperatures-in.html

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Dan Tauke writes: A great article in the Economist last week regarding research papers often being wrong and the process not being self correcting – something that we have in spades in the climate arena: http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21588057-scientists-think-science-self-correcting-alarming-degree-it-not-trouble

Key takeaway paragraph here but good detail on the statistical errors in the article:

“Various factors contribute to the problem. Statistical mistakes are widespread. The peer reviewers who evaluate papers before journals commit to publishing them are much worse at spotting mistakes than they or others appreciate. Professional pressure, competition and ambition push scientists to publish more quickly than would be wise. A career structure which lays great stress on publishing copious papers exacerbates all these problems. “There is no cost to getting things wrong,” says Brian Nosek, a psychologist at the University of Virginia who has taken an interest in his discipline’s persistent errors. “The cost is not getting them published.” “

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Larry Ledwick writes: New modeling initiative by National Science Foundation to produce “reliable climate predictions”

http://www.nsf.gov/funding/pgm_summ.jsp?pims_id=503399

The long-term goals of this solicitation are to improve on and extend current Earth System modeling capabilities to:

Achieve comprehensive, reliable global and regional predictions of decadal climate variability and change through advanced understanding of the coupled interactive physical, chemical, biological, and human processes that drive the climate system, including as they pertain to agriculture , forestry or land cover/use.

Quantify the impacts of climate variability and change on natural and human systems, and identify and quantify feedback loops.

Maximize the utility of available observational and model data for impact, vulnerability/resilience, and risk assessments through up/downscaling activities and uncertainty characterization.

Effectively translate climate predictions and associated uncertainties into the scientific basis for policy and management decisions related to human interventions and adaptation to the projected impacts of climate change.

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Tony Abbott accuses UN official of ‘talking through her hat’ on climate change

Prime Minister Tony Abbott has dismissed a UN assessment that the New South Wales fires are linked to climate change, accusing a senior UN official of “talking through her hat”.

Earlier this week, the executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, Christiana Figueres, said the fires proved the world is “already paying the price of carbon”.

She also criticised the Abbott Government’s direct action plan to tackle climate change as being potentially “much more expensive” than the carbon pricing scheme that it is moving to dump.

But Mr Abbott argues that “fire is a part of the Australian experience” and not linked to climate change.

“The official in question is talking through her hat,” he told 3AW.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-23/tony-abbott-fires-climate-change-rfs-un/5039932

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Bill Marsh
Editor
October 23, 2013 9:30 am

Of course its about instituting a carbon tax. Gore stands to make millions from it.

pat
October 23, 2013 9:31 am

Sometimes people who talk to themselves really are crazy.

George Lawson
October 23, 2013 9:56 am

Mr Gore must be one of the most disgusting men who nearly became president.

October 23, 2013 10:00 am

On the topic of Climate Disruption in the media: In the wee hours this morning here in the USofA I happened to hear a story about the wild fire in Australia on BBC. Normally they never miss an opportunity to beat the AGW drum. Non-scientists impacted by the fire were allowed to express contrary opinions. None of them thought CO2 had anything to do with the event. A pleasant surprise.

Henry Galt
October 23, 2013 10:00 am

Notes to ‘protester’: Piracy is not cool. It is illegal all over the world. Russia got fed up with your idiocy. Don’t do the crime if you can’t do the time.

October 23, 2013 10:02 am

“human interventions and adaptation to the projected impacts of climate change.”
http://climal.com/Environmental-Adaptation-Through-Technology.php

3x2
October 23, 2013 10:11 am

100% of content is about instituting carbon tax. Nothing else.
Shocked I tell you. Gore pushing carbon trading while buying up beach front property and consuming more ‘dirty’ power in one speaking tour than a typical (out in the sticks) African village manages in ten years – whatever next?
Remind me again to search google for the “Chicago Climate Exchange”. Seem to remember that a lot of current, and ex, politicians lost a lot of money on that one. Scamming %astards.

policycritic
October 23, 2013 10:21 am

The NYT unmasked Gore and his interests in this article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/03/business/energy-environment/03gore.html

Mickey Reno
October 23, 2013 10:34 am

Jailed Greenpeace activist Ted: Dammit, Robert, you promised you’d get me out of here.
Greenpeace Supervisor Robert: I assure you, Ted, that I’m doing my utmost to free you.
Ted: It’s cold. The wind blew my cell window open last night. I had to sleep with my hat on.
Robert: Oh, no, Ted. I assure you that it’s very warm up there right now. Haven’t you been reading your own organizational literature?
Ted: What? You’re telling me it’s warm? That I’m warm?
Robert: Yes, you should be warm… that’s why all the ice is melting up there.
Ted: Robert, what kind of a effing idiot are you?….
Robert: Ted, I’m beginning to feel like you’re not a true Greenpeace player. Do you want to be known as a denier?
Ted: Eff you, Robert. You get me out of here, NOW and when I get back, I’m done. I’m finished doing your stupid pranks.
Robert: I’m sorry to hear that, Ted. I thought I could count on you. By the way, the Russians consider what you did piracy on the open sea. I wish it was seen as just a “prank.”
Ted: Eff me, what have I done…

October 23, 2013 10:59 am

Larry Ledwick writes: New modeling initiative by National Science Foundation to produce “reliable climate predictions”

NSF says,
“The long-term goals of this solicitation are to improve on and extend current Earth System modeling capabilities to:
Achieve comprehensive, reliable global and regional predictions of decadal climate variability and change through advanced understanding of the coupled interactive physical, chemical, biological, and human processes that drive the climate system, including as they pertain to agriculture , forestry or land cover/use.
. . .”

– – – – – – – –
Thank you, Larry Ledwick, for calling attention to the NSF article of solicitation.

The NSF says in the lead paragraph of their solicitation,
“The consequences of climate variability and change are becoming more immediate and profound than previously anticipated. Over recent decades, the world has witnessed the onset of prolonged droughts on several continents, increased frequency of floods, loss of agricultural and forest productivity, degraded ocean and permafrost ecosystems, global sea level rise and the rapid retreat of ice sheets and glaciers, loss of arctic sea ice, and changes in ocean currents. These important impacts highlight that climate variability and change can have significant effects on decadal and shorter time scales, with significant consequences for plant, animal, human, and physical systems.”

So, the NSF has not acknowledged having critically reviewed the IPCC’s AR5 and has not acknowledged having monitored critical commentary in the science community and in the media. They are not recognizing the models broad based falsification nor the modeling failure to date as the basis of new modeling efforts.
Congress should sequester all model funding until the NSF explicitly acknowledges existing model falsification and generic failure to date and the incorrectness of the general findings of the AR5. There should not be continued ‘as usual’ modeling efforts.
John

October 23, 2013 10:59 am

Russia has dropped the piracy charges and refiled as ‘hooliganism’.

GlynnMhor
October 23, 2013 11:04 am

Where did that GreanPeacer think he’d end up?
In some tropical paradise like Guantanamo Bay?
Only the US treats prisoners so nicely.

Steve C
October 23, 2013 11:04 am

Sad news.
Just heard on the BBC news that the Greenpeace idiots will not now be charged with piracy, but instead with the lesser charge of hooliganism. It seems that we may now only hope for 7-year sentences.

October 23, 2013 11:07 am

I hope someone tells Alexandra Harris that the cold and deprivation she is experiencing is the known outcome of not having cheap, reliable energy, such energy only made possible by the very thing she was protesting. Maybe Green Peace can send solar cells and a wind turbine to her to see how effective they are in that climate versus fossil fuels.

October 23, 2013 11:15 am

Gore has an ad on yahoo finance banner currently which has a video feed with all sorts of disasters & the banner of “the cost of carbon”.
I guess there were never disasters before we started burning hydrocarbons /sarc
Seriously, he underestimates the intelligence of society to think we will fall for this.

The Sage
October 23, 2013 11:16 am

There was one field of endeavour conspicuously absent from that Economist article about corrupted science, despite its track record of unverifiable modelling and spectacularly falsified prognostications.

Adam Gallon
October 23, 2013 11:44 am

The Ruskis have downgraded the charges from Piracy, to hooliganism. That’s only a 7 year stretch in a Gulag!

October 23, 2013 11:45 am

To Greenpeace – if you can’t do the time, don’t do the crime.

October 23, 2013 12:04 pm

“… a senior UN official of “talking through her hat”.
Uh, was she sitting on her hat at the time?
🙂

October 23, 2013 12:06 pm

“Al Gore” = 6 letters
“Stupid” = 6 letters
Hmm… an inconvenient truth if there ever was one.
🙂

wws
October 23, 2013 12:07 pm

Trying to come inbetween Vladimir Putin and his income stream ranks as one of the all-time brain dead activist moves of all time. They really thought he would play by western rules?
hint: a sufficiently large payment, call it a “fine” and don’t dare use the word “ransom”, will spring them. That’s how this game works.

October 23, 2013 12:09 pm

” New modeling initiative by National Science Foundation to produce “reliable climate predictions”
What?
Producing unreliable climate predictions isn’t lucrative enough?
🙂

October 23, 2013 12:17 pm

‘A paper under open review for Climate of the Past reconstructs summer [June, July, August [JJA]] temperatures in Sweden and Finland over the past ~2,200 years and finds temperatures during the Medieval Warm Period 1,000 years ago and the Roman Warm Period 2,000 years ago were about the same as at the end of the 20th century. ”
so whats the position on publishing papers openly for review?

Madman2001
October 23, 2013 12:57 pm

I have such mixed feelings concerning the Greenpeace folks. I feel bad for them being stuck in a Russian prison in Murmansk with winter closing in.
But what were they thinking? Did they think that boarding the oil rig would have ANY effect on anything? Did they really think, particularly after the P. Riot trials, that the Russians would just politely tell them to leave?
And what kinds of people have enough time and money to head up to the Russian Arctic for a stupid stunt like that?

milodonharlani
October 23, 2013 1:02 pm

Madman2001 says:
October 23, 2013 at 12:57 pm
Good question. Among the 30 “arrested include American, Argentinian, Australian, Brazilian, British, Canadian, Danish, Dutch, Finnish, French, Italian, New Zealand, Swedish, Swiss, Polish, Russian, Turkish and Ukrainian citizens.”

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