Our resident solar expert, Dr. Leif Svalgaard, sends word of this new discovery.
Stanford solar scientists solve one of the sun’s mysteries
The sun’s magnetic field can play havoc with communications technology. Stanford scientists have now described one of the underlying processes that help form the magnetic field, which could help scientists predict its behavior.
By Bjorn Carey
Stanford solar scientists have solved one of the few remaining fundamental mysteries of how the sun works.
The mechanism, known as meridional flow, works something like a conveyor belt. Magnetic plasma migrates north to south on the sun’s surface, from the equator to the poles, and then cycles into the sun’s interior on its way back to the equator.
The rate and depth beneath the surface of the sun at which this process occurs is critical for predicting the sun’s magnetic and flare activity, but has remained largely unknown until now.
The solar scientists used the Stanford-operated Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) – an instrument onboard NASA’s Solar Dynamic Observatory satellite – to track solar waves in much the way seismologists would study seismic movements beneath the surface of the Earth. Every 45 seconds for the past two years, the HMI’s Doppler radar snapped images of plasma waves moving across the sun’s surface.
By identifying patterns of sets of waves, the scientists could recognize how the solar materials move from the sun’s equator toward the poles, and how they return to the equator through the sun’s interior.
“Once we understood how long it takes the wave to pass across the exterior, we determined how fast it moves inside, and thus how deep it goes,” said Junwei Zhao, a senior research scientist at the Hansen Experimental Physics Laboratory at Stanford, and lead author on the paper.
Although solar physicists have long hypothesized such a mechanism, at least in general terms, the new observations redefine solar currents in a few ways. First, the returning currents occur 100,000 kilometers below the surface of the sun, roughly half as deep as suspected. As such, solar materials pass through the interior and return to the equator more quickly than hypothesized.
More startling, Zhao said, is that the equator-ward flow is actually sandwiched between two “layers” of pole-ward currents, a more complicated mechanism than previously thought, and one that could help refine predictions of the sun’s activity.
“Considered together, this means that our previously held beliefs about the solar cycle are not totally accurate, and that we may need to make accommodations,” Zhao said.
For example, some computer models projected that the current solar cycle would be strong, but observations have since showed it is actually much weaker than the previous cycle. This inconsistency could be due to the previously unknown inaccuracies of the meridional circulation mechanism used in the simulations.
Improving the accuracy of simulations, Zhao said, will produce a better picture of fluctuations of the sun’s magnetic field, which can interfere with satellites and communications technology on Earth. The sun’s magnetic field resets every 11 years – the next reset will occur sometime in the next few months – and there is evidence that changes in the meridional flow can influence how the magnetic field evolves during a particular cycle.
“We want to continue monitoring variations of the meridional flow,” he said, “so that we can better predict the next solar cycle, when it will come and how active it will be.”
The report was published in the online edition of The Astrophysical Journal Letters. It was co-authored by three other researchers at the Hansen Experimental Physics Laboratory – senior scientists Rick Bogart and Alexander Kosovichev and research associate Thomas Hartlep – as well as NASA senior scientist Tom Duvall. Phil Scherrer, a professor of physics at Stanford, is the principal investigator of the HMI project and supervised the study.
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Leif adds an excerpt from the paper in an email:
Meridional flow inside the Sun plays an important role in redistributing rotational angular momentum and transporting magnetic flux, and is crucial to our understanding of the strength and duration of sunspot cycles according to flux-transport dynamo theories. At the Sun’s surface and in its shallow interior to at least 30 Mm in depth, the meridional flow is predominantly poleward with a peak speed of approximately 20 m/s.
The poleward plasma flow transports the surface magnetic flux from low latitudes to the polar region, causing the periodic reversals of the global magnetic field, a process important to the prediction of the solar cycles. The speed and variability of the meridional flow also play an important role in determining the strength and duration of the solar cycles, and the unusually long activity minimum at the end of Solar Cycle 23 during 2007–2010 was thought to be associated with an increase of the meridional flow speed during the declining phase of the previous cycle. Therefore, an accurate determination of the meridional flow profile is crucial to our understanding and prediction of solar magnetic activities.
Although the poleward meridional flow at the solar surface and in shallow depths has been well studied, the depth and speed profile of the equatorward return flow, which is expected to exist inside the solar convection zone to meet the mass conservation, largely remains a puzzle. It is generally assumed that the return flow is located near the base of the convection zone, although no convincing evidence had been reported.
The continuous Doppler observations by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager onboard the recently launched Solar Dynamics Observatory mission (SDO) allow us to measure and detect the long-sought equatorward flow. Our analysis, which takes into account the systematic center-to-limb effect that was recently found in the local helioseismology analysis techniques, gives a two-dimensional cross-section picture of the meridional flow inside the nearly entire solar convection zone, and reveals a double-cell circulation with the equatorward flow located near the middle of the convection zone.
Figure 1 shows the new picture suggested by the HMI data.
This new picture of the solar interior meridional circulation differs substantially from the previously widely believed picture of a single-cell circulation with the equatorward flow near the bottom of the convection zone [the Conveyor Belt Model]. Through removing a systematic center-to-limb effect that was only recently identified, our analysis corrects and improves the previous solar interior meridional flow profile given by Giles (1999) using a similar analysis procedure.
The new meridional circulation profile poses a challenge to the flux-transport dynamo models, but provides more physical constraints to these models creating a new opportunity to further understand how magnetic field is generated and how magnetic flux is transported inside the Sun. Past dynamo simulations have already demonstrated that a meridional circulation profile with multiple cells might not be able to reproduce the butterfly diagram and the phase relationship between the toroidal and poloidal fields as observed, unless the dynamo model was reconsidered. However, on the other hand, solar convection simulations have shown the possibility of multi-cell circulation with a shallow equatorward flow (e.g.,Miesch et al. 2006; Guerrero et al. 2013), demonstrating that our analysis results are reasonable.
Moreover, a recent dynamo simulation, with the double-cell meridional circulation profile incorporated, showed that the solar magnetic properties could be robustly reproduced after taking into consideration of turbulent pumping, turbulent diffusivity, and other factors (Pipin & Kosovichev 2013). All these studies, together with our observational results, suggest a rethinking of how the solar magnetic flux is generated and transported inside the Sun.
Abstract: http://iopscience.iop.org/2041-8205/774/2/L29
pdf here: http://www.leif.org/EOS/ApJL-2013-Meridional-Flow.pdf

LEIF, some of the solar predictions were good but as the article points out many predicted based on some computer models that this current solar cycle would be strong..
Infact many more from the mainstream(not all however) approach were callng for this cycle to be strong, then those who subscribe to the angular mometum theory.
Arthur you are so correct. After the fact they change the story ,just like AGW theory.
Arthur, Leif made some predictions here they are
solar flux for rest of this year 120, next year 120, year 2015, 115
ap index for the rest of this year 10, next year 9 and year 2015, 12
Top cell’s 15m/s velocity as quoted gives 1.2 solar circumference for 11 year cycle, which appear to be far [too] fast.
Velocity of about 6m/s (~0.5 of solar circumference) would be of right order for generating 11 year sunspot cycle ( for 22 year magnetic cycle about 3m/s).
That said, if the above meridional flow hypothesis explains solar magnetic cycle, it still doesn’t tell anything about sunspot generation and even less about such important matter as the Grand minima. I expect further progress, but until then I’ll stick with ‘magnetospheric feedback’ hypothesis for the solar magnetic cycle:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC2.htm
which gives both magnetic cycle and the forthcoming Grand minimum. I am sure none of the experts in field will agree, but again the sun wouldn’t care too much about that.
“For example, some computer models projected that the current solar cycle would be strong,”
Not again, please. That was a prediction, surely. A failed one, but prediction nevertheless. The term “projection” was used only in climate science so far, with no definite meaning, to muddy the water, no doubt.
Dr. Svalgaard,
Thanks for the reply. As I said, I’m not saying the sun is powered by recombination. I just want to build a model of a star powered by recombination to see what the results would be. Recombination is not covered in the plasma textbook I have and I’ve had little success in tracking down online papers covering recombination.
Again, thanks for your reply and thanks for sharing the article about new information about the sun with us.
Arthur says:
August 29, 2013 at 12:11 pm
Now that its half over and significantly lower than what was projected 10 years ago I find it difficult to understand how you Dr, Svalgaard can still defend that position
I think the prediction of 10 years ago is holding up quite well: 75+/-8, or 68% chance that the value would be in the range 67-83, or 95% chance that it would be in the range of 59-91: http://www.leif.org/research/Cycle%2024%20Smallest%20100%20years.pdf
You personally may not have predicted an active cycle 24 but many other solar scientists did.
So what? they all agree now that mine is what counts 🙂
Salvatore Del Prete says:
August 29, 2013 at 12:13 pm
some of the solar predictions were good but as the article points out many predicted based on some computer models that this current solar cycle would be strong..
See above.
those who subscribe to the angular momentum theory
are nuts, as far as I am concerned, because that ‘theory’ violates the laws of physics: http://www.leif.org/EOS/Shirley-MNRAS.pdf
Leif Svalgaard says;
‘on the other hand there may be readers that need a suitable warning about the spreading of this kind of stuff.’
You are perfectly correct. I, at least, who visit here regularly need rubbish exposing as, rubbish as my science education is often inadequate to pick out the untruths. Thank you.
vukcevic says:
August 29, 2013 at 12:21 pm
I’ll stick with ‘magnetospheric feedback’ hypothesis for the solar magnetic cycle:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC2.htm which gives both magnetic cycle and the forthcoming Grand minimum.
You are one of those who pollute these pages by spreading garbage.
I am sure none of the experts in field will agree, but again the sun wouldn’t care too much about that
nor about your nonsense.
Henry says
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/29/a-new-understanding-of-the-solar-dynamo-published/#comment-1403047
Interesting, from simple trend analysis I think I can estimate the error in the readings 1904-1927 with reasonable certainty.
Applying the correction, it gives me
Average annual SSN 1904-1927
62
In terms of the 88 solar / weather cycle it is important to understand where we are in history (droughts coming up 2021-2028).
rgbatduke says:
August 29, 2013 at 11:09am and 11:32 am
Good insights, rgbatduke!
From a (mental) polar view, I could visualize the constrained in-flows and rotational distortions you described. Thanks!
And Thanks to Dr. Svalgaard. for the informative responses!
MtK
Leif Svalgaard says:
August 29, 2013 at 10:40 am
“Bart, we are trying to discuss science here.”
You try, I succeed.
HenryP says:
August 29, 2013 at 11:59 am
“@Bart
Don’t let these so called professionals here intimidate you! Just keep following your own results.”
Thanks but, don’t worry. Eventually, he will either learn how it works and realize that it’s been staring him in the face all along, or someone else will. Anyone with a moiety of skill in the appropriate subjects will recognize what this means.
Bart says:
August 29, 2013 at 12:46 pm
“Bart, we are trying to discuss science here.”
You try, I succeed
Looks very much like a case of the Dunning-Kruger syndrome http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
You have joined the merry band of polluters.
.
Let us see what the temperatures do going forward and how the sun behaves going forward and if any correlations come about as a result, and then take it from there.
I want to see results not talk which is all we are getting.
Make the predictions and stand by them, a study or talk without being backed up by predictions, is meaningless.
Put the money where the study is and make the prediction and stand by the prediction.
I hate excuses and changes once a prediction is made. Don’t make it if you can’t stand by it.
Salvatore Del Prete says:
August 29, 2013 at 12:52 pm
I want to see results not talk which is all we are getting.
Most of the ‘talk’ comes from you [with contributions from the usual polluters].
rgbatduke says:
August 29, 2013 at 11:32 am
There’s a source of serious turbulence right there, especially when one has to factor in magnetohydrodynamics and this motion occurs in a magnetic field.
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Lorentz force on sodium and chlorine ions in a salt water solution flow under a transverse magnetic field:
http://iopscience.iop.org/0143-0807/30/3/004
Leif Svalgaard says:
August 29, 2013 at 12:51 pm
“Looks very much like a case of the Dunning-Kruger syndrome.”
Indeed. As I stated, anyone with a moiety of skill in the appropriate subjects will recognize what this means. D&K had you pegged.
Question.
If I were “standing” on the “surface” of the sun, how much would I weigh ?
(assuming 160lb of mass).
I know, but what would be the potential ?
This (magnetic properties of the sun)is all a simulation… It only explains how it “might” work.
And how does the surface of the sun work again??
I find it amazing that there is a layer of neutral iron and a layer of neutral nickle that HMI can use to determine the surface magnetic field… And they can do this at the micro nm scale of measurement. The surface of the neutral layer give enough resolution for 100’s of feet of motion…..
Above this layer the temp rises quickly to thousands of degrees… That would indicate the presence of a electric field accelerating the plasma from 0 to to a couple of million degrees by the time it reaches the corona…
Nobody has explained how this is so…..
“””””……Stanford solar scientists solve one of the sun’s mysteries……””””””
“Solve” ??? I couldn’t find that in my compendium of weasel words.
Damn nice to see an announcement, where the informants, have confidence in the correctness of their new(er) model.
I’ve been there and done that (in a much more minor situation) and it is always a thrill, to be able to say with confidence; “We figured this thing out correctly.”
It’s not too often that Dr Svalgaard asserts that the sun is actually doing something; so this must be the real thing. Izzat a sort of solar “Hadlee Cell” thing Leif. (except in a layered direction) ? Seems like there must be some sort of angular momentum value, that suddenly got itself adjusted to a new value. Darned if I can guess whether up or down though.
Some apparently think putting emphasis on results is somehow offensive.
All I have called for is back up a study /conclusions with a prediction.
I believe Anthony Watts, and others base their conclusions on such an approach, as do I.
I will admit to wrong,if the sun is either much more active then I expect or if the sun is quiet and
the temperatures fail to go down.
Leif Svalgaard says:
I think the . (Dr. Svalgaard’s) prediction of 10 years ago is holding up quite well: 75+/-8….
…….
You are . (Vukcevic) one of those who pollute these pages by spreading garbage.
Hey Doc
Are you worried that my ‘garbage’ produces superior results to the Stanford science?
Let’s see, your hypothesis is based on the PF max time which was not reached until 2006 Your paper http://www.leif.org/research/Polar%20Fields%20and%20Cycle%2024.pdf
is also dated 2006, so you could not make prediction in 2003, the PF was 3 years off its maximum
I wrote the equation in the early part of 2003 (published 8th January 2004)
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC2.htm (indicated by red arrow) when it was not known future course of the PF, while Hathaway and Dicpati were talking large numbers.
Equation has proved itself up to date, may fail in the future but that remains to be seen. You may call it garbage but so far so good.
Thanks much for your comments, Leif, and contribution to this board.
“””””…..Arthur says:
August 29, 2013 at 12:11 pm
There were may solar scientist who thought Solar Cycle 24 was going to be very active,
Now that its half over and significantly lower than what was projected 10 years ago I find it difficult to understand how you Dr, Svalgaard can still defend that position, You personally may not have predicted an active cycle 24 but many other solar scientists did……..”””””
Isn’t that the process that one is supposed to follow in science ?
If you make predictions on the basis of your (current) model, and then new lines of evidence suggest that a different model is more accurate; this is like having your foot on the gas, and suddenly realizing there’s a concrete wall in your way. Common sense dictates that you at least take your foot off the gas, and preferably steer in a different direction that is more likely to succeed.
I don’t see any contradiction to complain about. If you realize that the flow has a different structure from your previous models said; well you shift horses to what your evidence tells you is a more real model or structure.
Quite often, the most valuable research discovery, is the discovery that you have no business continuing down the previously preferred path, and should shift to a new one.
Bart says:
August 29, 2013 at 1:01 pm
D&K had you pegged.
Apart of the D&K syndrome is that you don’t even know it.
u.k.(us) says:
August 29, 2013 at 1:02 pm
If I were “standing” on the “surface” of the sun, how much would I weigh ?
27 times as much as you would weigh on the surface of the Earth.
Brant Ra says:
August 29, 2013 at 1:08 pm
I find it amazing that there is a layer of neutral iron and a layer of neutral nickle that HMI can use to determine the surface magnetic field
Actually no ‘layers’ just iron and nickel atoms springled among the overwhelming bulk of Hyrogen and Helium.
That would indicate the presence of a electric field accelerating the plasma from 0 to to a couple of million degrees by the time it reaches the corona…
If there was such an electric field it would be neutralized by the plasma, so no electric field.
george e. smith says:
August 29, 2013 at 1:10 pm
Damn nice to see an announcement, where the informants, have confidence in the correctness of their new(er) model.
We are actually talking about obervations and measurements. It is an extra bouns that they also agree with some models.
Izzat a sort of solar “Hadley Cell” thing Leif. (except in a layered direction)?
More or less, and probably also caused by some temperature difference, but the ‘layered’ puzzles me. The Hadley cell is also ‘layered’.
vukcevic says:
August 29, 2013 at 1:21 pm
Equation has proved itself up to date, may fail in the future but that remains to be seen. You may call it garbage but so far so good.
Apart from your ‘history’ being wrong, we have gone over this too many times to be worth repeating. Garbage it was and still is.
Time will tell. This decade is going to very interesting.