Bishop Hill says-
Louise Gray has adopted the role of recruiting sergeant for the Balcombe protest camp, offering up helpful advice on what aspirant participants should bring along: http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2013/8/7/environmentalist-journalist.html
[That pretty much shreds Gray’s credibility – Anthony]
=============================================================
Lots of chatter about sea ice being higher than in many recent years:
Danish Meteorological Institute: Arctic Sea Ice Now 1.7 Million Square Kilometers Over Last Year!
That’s 19,000 Manhattans. Arctic open sea water is in a death spiral!
Source: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php
But I’m not convinced it will last, as trouble in the form of a polar storm is brewing on the horizon, which could break up sea ice as a storm did last year (despite the wailing from alarmists, it was weather, not climate):
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Powerline Blog: Green Weenie of the Week: The Weather
Okay, by now we’ve done to death all of the things caused by climate change (the Warmlist is up to 883 items now), but the newest claim is that global warming will increase the violent crime rate. From the Beeb:
Shifts in climate are strongly linked to increases in violence around the world, a study suggests. US scientists found that even small changes in temperature or rainfall correlated with a rise in assaults, rapes and murders, as well as group conflicts and war. The team says with the current projected levels of climate change, the world is likely to become a more violent place.
The crime rate in the United States has been falling steadily for the last 20 years, during which time, we are told daily, we’re notching the hottest years since Satan lit up his sulfur pits. Hmmm.
The best takedown of this so far comes from William M. Briggs
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Meteorologist Art Horn Letter to Connecticut State Dept. of Agriculture
Meteorologist, Art Horn, lays bare the nonsense about “extreme weather”, in a letter to the Connecticut Dept of Agriculture.
One of the reasons we teach people about history is to give them ability to place current events into their proper context. The same can be said about weather history. Those who do not know the history of weather do not know how to place current events such as hurricanes, tornadoes, snowstorms, floods, droughts, heat waves, cold waves and all other types of weather phenomena into their proper context. If one does not know weather history than that person might think that all “unusual” weather is new and unprecedented.
Meteorologist Art Horn Letter to Connecticut State Dept. of Agriculture
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NOAA Confirms Model-Defying Global Temperature Stagnation…2012 Was Among Coolest In 21st Century
The political beauty about climate data is that it can be easily manipulated in order to fool the public.
The National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently released its State of the Climate in 2012: Highlights. To no one’s surprise, the report gives the reader the impression that warming is galloping ahead out of control. But their data show just the opposite. http://notrickszone.com/2013/08/07/noaa-confirms-model-defying-global-temperature-stagnation-2012-was-among-coolest-in-21st-century/
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The waste is scandalous, even from the Coalition. We’re in deep deficit, which makes it even more insane to spend billions a year on making a difference to the temperature so immeasurably small that no party dares tell voters what it is.
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More polar bear boo hoos from the Grauniad:
Lots of questions about that “starved” 16-year-old polar bear
If it was healthy in April, can we just assume “from its lying position” that CO2 reduced it to skin and bones by July? What about the admission that “there may have been some underlying disease”–did anyone actually check? What did its teeth look like? How big a factor was old age? If pregnant female polar bears in Hudson Bay can fast for up to 8 months, how did CO2 cause this particular bear to starve so quickly?
After Ian Stirling found the animal dead in July, how did global warming activist photographer Ashley Cooper end up at the scene? What was the process of hyping this dead bear to the media? Didn’t thousands of polar bears end up looking like this well before the invention of the internal combustion engine?
Starved polar bear perished due to record sea-ice melt, says expert | Environment | The Guardian
Ice loss due to climate change is “absolutely, categorically and without question” the cause of falling polar bear populations, said Richardson, who cares for the UK’s only publicly kept polar bears. He said 16 years was not particularly old for a wild male polar bear, which usually live into their early 20s [or 15-18, who’s counting?]. “There may have been some underlying disease, but I would be surprised if this was anything other than starvation,” he said. “Once polar bears reach adulthood they are normally nigh on indestructible, they are hard as nails.”
A victim of climate change? Polar bear found starved to death looked ‘like a rug’ – World News
Ian Stirling, who has studied polar bears for nearly 40 years, told The Guardian newspaper that he found the animal on Svalbard in July.
“From his lying position in death the bear appears to simply have starved and died where he dropped,” Stirling said. “He had no external suggestion of any remaining fat, having been reduced to little more than skin and bone.”
The bear was examined by Norwegian scientists in April about 150 miles south and seemed to be healthy at that time…
Ashley Cooper, the photographer who took the picture, said the sight of the dead polar bear was “desperately sad.”
…
Cooper said the fate of the bear was “what [all] polar bears have got to look forward to over the next 10 to 20 years.”
“There isn’t a future for them unless we can very rapidly get on top of climate change,” he said.
…Ashley Cooper / Global Warming Images
The bear is thought to have been heading north in a desperate search for sea ice that would allow it to hunt for seals. Scientists believe the Arctic could be essentially free of sea ice in September by 2054. [So why will all polar bears starve within 20 years from now?]
Actionbioscience | Polar Bears and Climate Change
Pregnant female polar bears in Hudson Bay can fast for up to 8 months
Global Warming Images | Ashley Cooper’s website
Ashley Cooper has always been passionate about the environment and in recent years Global Warming, the affects of which he has been documenting for the last 8 years. His trips have taken him to many parts of the world with his particular interest being in capturing images that graphically demonstrate the impact of global warming, on people, places and wildlife.
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If the increase in Arctic sea ice was cooling in response to the solar cycle 24 change rather than just weather one would expect their would be cooling in the Southern Hemisphere.
There is cooling in the Southern Hemisphere.
http://joannenova.com.au/
http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/graphs/antarctic/antarctic-cea-ice-aug-4-2013.gif
In the past when there was a Maunder minimum the planet cooled.
How much cooling would one expect? Over what period would the cooling occur? Interesting questions. We should have observational data to answer them.
One problem with this new bunching of articles is that some get neglected, as people comment exclusively on others. “In the old days,” even if an article only got 20 comments, they tended to be on topic, (unless a thread-jacker appeared.) Now I feel like I’m jacking the thread, simply by staying on topic with one issue, as I know I am neglecting another. Still, “some is better than none,” and I am grateful WUWT gets so much news made public, that the mainstream ignores.
Regarding the starved polar bear: Two good points have been made. First, populations of predators rise and fall. When there are few foxes there are many rabbits, so the fox populations soars until they eat too many rabbits. Then the fox population falls. Why does it fall? They starve, basically. Starvation is never a pretty site. (Especially when it is humans in your neighborhood, but don’t get me started on that subject…) Second, I nearly killed one of my goats by giving it an injection to make it healthy. A gross abscess bulged, leading to a stinking discharge, even though I took all the steps to keep the injection clean. In the same manner, when you shoot a dart into a bear in April and it is dead by July, people ought at least consider infection could be the culprit.
Regarding the sea ice and the arctic storm: This storm is a really neat experiment devised by Mother Nature herself. We need to watch and learn. Personally, it will test my theory that the so-called “baby ice” has more pressure ridges, more “body,” and is stronger. I’m sure Steven Mosher is also interested, as his ideas are more along the line of thinning ice. However the important thing is to confess our less-than-perfect knowledge, and to be students. Nobody likes a know-it-all, (naming no names.)
a) Bear dies from lack of tourists. Guilt trip!
b) If it looked like a rug maybe that’s because it was a rug. After all you don’t want to return from that Guardian financed trip empty handed.
David Albert says:
August 7, 2013 at 9:02 am
The best reason I can think of for the rapid decline of this bear is an infection, Possibly they did a poor job when they darted him for testing in April.
David,
I had similar thoughts! I have some small experience ‘darting’ domestically raised deer and similar critters on licensed game ranches, when less intrusive measures of capture (corraling, netting, etc) had failed. Using anesthesia delivered from a special ‘hypodermic rifle’ was our last resort capture method.
The anesthesia dose was estimated based on prior experience with that particular species/subspecies, the animals size, overall health, and (gu)estimated age. Some care had to be exercised while loading the anesthesia into the dart and loading the dart into the gun, to keep the ‘needle’ end clean and uncontaminated during handling. The ‘needle’ of the darts were considerably larger diameter than those used on humans, to allow a rapid delivery of the anesthetic into the hip muscle (usually) upon impact. The dart tip often dragged some of the animals hair into the wound. After the animal succumbed to the drugs and laid down, we would take care to remove such contaminants from the wound and swab the area with alcohol, before moving the prostrate animal as needed and observing its eventual recovery. An additional hazard was the relatively long/slow time of flight for these darts. A small movement by the animal just as the dart was fired could place the dart in a ‘less than optimal’ location. There was also a lot of variability in how individual animals responded to the anesthesia as well. One animal would quickly succumb to the dose, yet a nearly identical animal (size, weight, age) given an identical dose would remain on their feet and capable of significant ‘resistance’ to capture. Do you ‘dart’ them again,…. or are they slowed enough that you can get a net over them, wrap them up and carry them out? A struggling animal makes cleaning a ‘dart’ wound much more challenging. As I said, this was our ‘last choice’ method for animal capture.
These are a few of the ways ‘darting’ animals for examination or capture can go wrong. That old boar bear could easily have picked up an infection from less than stellar preparation of the dart and/or inadequate cleaning of the wound by the capture crew….
MtK
André Rieu wants to make music with the locals of the Arctic, the Eskimo’s and the Laplanders. The world famous violinist and orchestra leader wants to give a concert with the Eskimo’s and Laplanders who will be playing their own traditional instruments, he said Thursday. Next summer Rieu aims to give a concert in the Arctic. He wants it to draw attention to the melting of the ice caps and the climate change. The musician is already preparing for what will be an expensive and complicated operation.
“We will go there with two icebreakers, and a public of one hundred”, says Rieu. “For the public, we will look for a couple from every nation in the world.”
http://harmonyparlor.blogspot.com.es/2009/08/andre-rieu-wants-to-make-music-at-north.html
The concert is scheduled for August 18, 2014. Tickets will cost 35,000 euros each.
http://www.telegraaf.nl/prive/21794469/__Reis_Rieu_Noordpool_nabij__.html
ponysboy says:
August 7, 2013 at 1:44 pm
CT’s area metric for Aug 6 (the most recent value while I’m writing this) has 2013’s area higher than any year since 2006. It’s value is a little closer to 2009 than 2006, but halfway between is a fair estimate. And the area for 08/06 is about 1.15 million km^2 for this year than for last. The difference in extent is expected to be larger than the difference in area BTW. Given that, maybe you should contact UIUC and ask them to fix their measuring equipment. Actually, IIRC, they use the same equipment as NSIDC, so please contact them too.
For the record, I’m guessing we’ll end up somewhere between the minima of 2009 and 2010. It’ll be interesting to see what this storm does to the ice.
-Scott
That very symmetrical cyclone over the North Pole looks very much like the beautiful spiral galaxies Messier 99 http://gallery.rcopticalsystems.com/gallery/m99.html and its twin NGC 1566, The Spanish Dancer galaxy http://www.capella-observatory.com/ImageHTMLs/Galaxies/NGC1566.htm . Nature at work on different scales!
That polar vortex has been forming for about three or four weeks. It has simply become strong enough to now coalesce into an organized storm. The biggest give away was the rapid temp drop at the surface about that time and the lowering of barometric pressures. Been watching this for weeks. The cold oscillations should keep ice break up to a minimum and that which does will become stacked. The natural process of ice build up has begun. IMHO
Bruce Cobb says:
August 7, 2013 at 1:07 pm
…….
Thanks, I am well of the mark with 3,75., doesn’t appear to be likely, but as a conciliation prize here in England we have one of the best summers in years.
“Ashley is a dude? Man, cruel parents…”
Ashley is a boy’s and a girl’s name. Became popular as a boy’s name from the second main male character in Gone With The Wind.
Having raised livestock and knowing the number of bears has dramatically increased, My first guess would be PARASITES. Parasites can easily kill especially the very young or the accumulative damage can kill an older animal if stressed. I have seen a well cared for 3 year old Morgan mare drop dead when she started training. The Necropsy reported massive damage due to internal parasites even though she and all the animals on the farm were routinely wormed and very well cared for. (Stalls and buckets cleaned every day, hay racks and feed buckets to minimize fecal contamination of food.)
Coccidia are particularly bad news in livestock and can kill up to 50% of the young stock and can cause long lasting damage and unthriftiness no matter how much the animal is fed.
There is some cross over in Coccidia and other parasites between sheep and goats because they are closely related species.
Without a necropsy cause of death can not be determined although warm wet weather will make some parasites more active.
@ur momisugly M Courtney says: August 7, 2013 at 1:21 pm
I personally know of no male Ashleys, but there is a very famous one for those who love great literature. Ashley Wilkes, and he was from this side of the pond!
And yes, us Colonialists have an aversion to the French Spelling of words. 😉
Robertv says:
August 7, 2013 at 5:53 pm
“André Rieu wants to make music with the locals of the Arctic, the Eskimo’s and the Laplanders.”
Hope his dozens of young female violinists that he carries around with him on his own buses will not be underdressed.
If one clicks through the monthly maps of Arctic sea ice extents, Svalbard was essentially ice free from July 2012 through January 2013 and the majority of the summer ice extent anomaly has been on the North Atlantic side of the Arctic above Scandinavia during the 2013 melt season. Whether one accepts AGW as the cause or not, it’s absurd to think this wouldn’t distress the polar bear population in that region.
philjourdan says at August 8, 2013 at 4:46 am
Ah, we imperialists have no problem with exploiting the convenient bons mots from wherever we have bought, conquered or subtly subverted.
It makes the subjects feel quite “cool”.
M Courtney says: August 8, 2013 at 2:06 pm
And as my granddaddy says – never try to out snooty an Englishman! 😆
Mark B says: @ur momisugly August 8, 2013 at 7:10 am
If one clicks through the monthly maps of Arctic sea ice extents, Svalbard was essentially ice free from July 2012 through January 2013 and the majority of the summer ice extent anomaly has been on the North Atlantic side of the Arctic above Scandinavia during the 2013 melt season. Whether one accepts AGW as the cause or not, it’s absurd to think this wouldn’t distress the polar bear population in that region.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Then how come the polar bear populations are INCREASING? Newsbytes: Polar Bear Population Growing Despite Declining Sea Ice
Besides this was a 16 year old bear and that is OLD for a wild polar bear.
“Today bears are now far more common in Spitsbergen and the other islands of Svalbard. They are more common all over the Arctic than 33 years ago. The US Fish and Wildlife Service estimated in 2008 that the polar bear population was at a historic high of 20,000-25,000 bears, up from as low as 5,000-10,000 bears in the 1960s. The International Union for the Conservation of Nature estimated in 1966 that there were 10,000 polar bears in the world; in 2006, the same source estimated 20,000-25,000 bears. Just last May the IUCN Polar BearSpecialist Group concluded there has probably been no drop in the numbers since then.”
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/the-polar-bear-problem.aspx
See also :
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/14/a-must-watch-greening-the-planet-dr-matt-ridley/
Then how come the polar bear populations are INCREASING? Newsbytes: Polar Bear Population Growing Despite Declining Sea Ice
Besides this was a 16 year old bear and that is OLD for a wild polar bear.
I’m confused by your question. In the thread you linked did you yourself not identify hunting restrictions imposed circa 1970 (1973 in Svalbard) to be obvious factor dominating increasing bear populations?
Regardless, that reduced sea ice extent in the area will reduce the capacity of the region to support the current bear population seems a pretty reasonable supposition. It also makes sense in a distressed population the most frail individuals (old and/or diseased) would be the first to go. I’m not dismissing the notion that other factors may have contributed to this particular animal’s death, but let’s not pretend that the obvious difference in habitat over the past year doesn’t matter.