Bishop Hill says-
Louise Gray has adopted the role of recruiting sergeant for the Balcombe protest camp, offering up helpful advice on what aspirant participants should bring along: http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2013/8/7/environmentalist-journalist.html
[That pretty much shreds Gray’s credibility – Anthony]
=============================================================
Lots of chatter about sea ice being higher than in many recent years:
Danish Meteorological Institute: Arctic Sea Ice Now 1.7 Million Square Kilometers Over Last Year!
That’s 19,000 Manhattans. Arctic open sea water is in a death spiral!
Source: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php
But I’m not convinced it will last, as trouble in the form of a polar storm is brewing on the horizon, which could break up sea ice as a storm did last year (despite the wailing from alarmists, it was weather, not climate):
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Powerline Blog: Green Weenie of the Week: The Weather
Okay, by now we’ve done to death all of the things caused by climate change (the Warmlist is up to 883 items now), but the newest claim is that global warming will increase the violent crime rate. From the Beeb:
Shifts in climate are strongly linked to increases in violence around the world, a study suggests. US scientists found that even small changes in temperature or rainfall correlated with a rise in assaults, rapes and murders, as well as group conflicts and war. The team says with the current projected levels of climate change, the world is likely to become a more violent place.
The crime rate in the United States has been falling steadily for the last 20 years, during which time, we are told daily, we’re notching the hottest years since Satan lit up his sulfur pits. Hmmm.
The best takedown of this so far comes from William M. Briggs
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Meteorologist Art Horn Letter to Connecticut State Dept. of Agriculture
Meteorologist, Art Horn, lays bare the nonsense about “extreme weather”, in a letter to the Connecticut Dept of Agriculture.
One of the reasons we teach people about history is to give them ability to place current events into their proper context. The same can be said about weather history. Those who do not know the history of weather do not know how to place current events such as hurricanes, tornadoes, snowstorms, floods, droughts, heat waves, cold waves and all other types of weather phenomena into their proper context. If one does not know weather history than that person might think that all “unusual” weather is new and unprecedented.
Meteorologist Art Horn Letter to Connecticut State Dept. of Agriculture
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NOAA Confirms Model-Defying Global Temperature Stagnation…2012 Was Among Coolest In 21st Century
The political beauty about climate data is that it can be easily manipulated in order to fool the public.
The National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently released its State of the Climate in 2012: Highlights. To no one’s surprise, the report gives the reader the impression that warming is galloping ahead out of control. But their data show just the opposite. http://notrickszone.com/2013/08/07/noaa-confirms-model-defying-global-temperature-stagnation-2012-was-among-coolest-in-21st-century/
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The waste is scandalous, even from the Coalition. We’re in deep deficit, which makes it even more insane to spend billions a year on making a difference to the temperature so immeasurably small that no party dares tell voters what it is.
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More polar bear boo hoos from the Grauniad:
Lots of questions about that “starved” 16-year-old polar bear
If it was healthy in April, can we just assume “from its lying position” that CO2 reduced it to skin and bones by July? What about the admission that “there may have been some underlying disease”–did anyone actually check? What did its teeth look like? How big a factor was old age? If pregnant female polar bears in Hudson Bay can fast for up to 8 months, how did CO2 cause this particular bear to starve so quickly?
After Ian Stirling found the animal dead in July, how did global warming activist photographer Ashley Cooper end up at the scene? What was the process of hyping this dead bear to the media? Didn’t thousands of polar bears end up looking like this well before the invention of the internal combustion engine?
Starved polar bear perished due to record sea-ice melt, says expert | Environment | The Guardian
Ice loss due to climate change is “absolutely, categorically and without question” the cause of falling polar bear populations, said Richardson, who cares for the UK’s only publicly kept polar bears. He said 16 years was not particularly old for a wild male polar bear, which usually live into their early 20s [or 15-18, who’s counting?]. “There may have been some underlying disease, but I would be surprised if this was anything other than starvation,” he said. “Once polar bears reach adulthood they are normally nigh on indestructible, they are hard as nails.”
A victim of climate change? Polar bear found starved to death looked ‘like a rug’ – World News
Ian Stirling, who has studied polar bears for nearly 40 years, told The Guardian newspaper that he found the animal on Svalbard in July.
“From his lying position in death the bear appears to simply have starved and died where he dropped,” Stirling said. “He had no external suggestion of any remaining fat, having been reduced to little more than skin and bone.”
The bear was examined by Norwegian scientists in April about 150 miles south and seemed to be healthy at that time…
Ashley Cooper, the photographer who took the picture, said the sight of the dead polar bear was “desperately sad.”
…
Cooper said the fate of the bear was “what [all] polar bears have got to look forward to over the next 10 to 20 years.”
“There isn’t a future for them unless we can very rapidly get on top of climate change,” he said.
…Ashley Cooper / Global Warming Images
The bear is thought to have been heading north in a desperate search for sea ice that would allow it to hunt for seals. Scientists believe the Arctic could be essentially free of sea ice in September by 2054. [So why will all polar bears starve within 20 years from now?]
Actionbioscience | Polar Bears and Climate Change
Pregnant female polar bears in Hudson Bay can fast for up to 8 months
Global Warming Images | Ashley Cooper’s website
Ashley Cooper has always been passionate about the environment and in recent years Global Warming, the affects of which he has been documenting for the last 8 years. His trips have taken him to many parts of the world with his particular interest being in capturing images that graphically demonstrate the impact of global warming, on people, places and wildlife.
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Assuming he means all polar beears currently alive, given the 15-18 years expected life span, then I guess he is almost definately right.
Ashley is a dude? Man, cruel parents…
As anyone who follows arctic ice knows, 2012 was doomed way before the storm. The culprit was a persistant + dipole anomaly of the kind that has appeared almost every year since 2007. It’s absence this year is a major reason for the massive recovery. the ice over the laptev and central basin is not the wispy, thin ice that last years storm finished off. This year we see large floes that indicate healthy, structurally sound ice that will weather the next few days just fine. What we actually have to worry about is the reappearance of said +DA for the next few days which will increase export out the fram, and blow ice out of the Beaufort Gyre. I predict a moderate drop in extent this week before the cyclone blows back towards the Canadian Archipelago, reversing the dipole and bringing the arctic into a deep-freeze. It’ll be kinda hard to melt ice with much of the basin below 0C as per model guidance.
“””””……MangoChutney says:
August 7, 2013 at 9:51 am
Pregnant female polar bears in Hudson Bay can fast for up to 8 months
Isn’t this a little bit of a red herring since to fast for 8 months the bears need to feast first?
If the dead bear was OK in April and dead 3 months later, there could be many reasons. Has an autopsy been carried out?……””””””
Nah, they did a necropsy instead. I think an autopsy is when you do it on yourself.
Could that bear have died from the tagging? There is a certain percentage of animals that die from the experience of being tagged. Wolf tagging in NE Oregon leads to a low percentage, but a percentage nonetheless, of healthy wolves simply dying from the experience of being tagged. It could be a case of three fingers pointing back at “him” regarding the death of this animal.
I made a forecast some months ago for the WUWT’s survey , no idea what it was; is it anywhere we can see how we are doing?
“what [all] polar bears have got to look forward to over the next 10 to 20 years.”
this top predator is for now surviving as a stable population on Spitsbergen, with anecdotal evidence hinting at a population increase, even.
http://www.aqua-firma.co.uk/polar-bear-spitsbergen-svalbard-arctic-wildlife/
“Scientists believe the Arctic could be essentially free of sea ice in September by 2054.”
I think they mean it as in… the earth’s atmosphere is essentially free of CO2 today!
It seems that the Guardian has a short collective memory, back in May they ran an article based on the booming polar bear population of Svalbard.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/may/16/svalbard-job-vacancy-polar-bear-spotter
When predator populations boom unchecked rapid die-offs are not untypical.
Re: Arctic Ice up:
This is indeed a serious problem. We have enough new ice for 19,000 Manhattans, but who’s going to supply the bourbon? We urgently need to redirect some of that biomass production back where it belongs: into Jack Daniels, or there could be serious consequences.
‘That pretty much shreds Gray’s credibillity – Anthony’…Hmmm. She hasn’t had much here in the UK for quite a long time. I’m sure she’s a very nice person but I have been thinking of her, in a kind sort of way of course, as ‘Loupy Lou’ for quite a long time now. We are still fools enough to subscribe to the Daily Telegraph, though probably not for much longer.
If I were to hazard a guess on this year’s Arctic sea ice minimum it would be at or near the 2000s mean value. Based on the most recent trend it may actually take a storm for that to happen. It would really have to fall a long way to catch up with last year.
***
OssQss says:
August 7, 2013 at 8:26 am
Hummm, an arctic storm could possibly stack and pack the ice as opposed to exporting it out. Subsequently increasing the multi year ice and making things less susceptable to future storms moving forward, No?
***
Yes. The rotten ice will become unrotten. Dead fish will spring back to life. Polar bears will guzzle Coke. 🙂
Methinks Arctic Ice minimum is going to be higher this year. I am going by the temperatures North of the 80 th Parallel. If they continue to be low that is.
Compare this years graph with that of last year and 2007.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
“Scientists believe the Arctic could be essentially free of sea ice in September by 2054.”
___
Must be a typo, obviously is should read 1934. As for ‘scientists believe’, is that all scientists? nice blanket representation of opinion there. A common irritation right up there with ‘unprecedented’.
@Vukcevic, here it is: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/06/sea-ice-news-volume-4-2-the-2013-sea-ice-forecast-contest/
I guessed 4.2 to 4.3.
Interesting news DMI has a new sea ice extent map. In there words: “The plot above replaces an earlier sea ice extent plot, that was based on data with the coastal zones masked out. This coastal mask implied that the previous sea ice extent estimates were underestimated. The new plot displays absolute sea ice extent estimates.” The new graph shows sea ice extent at roughly 8mill+ sqkm.
here’s the link:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
Denier says at August 7, 2013 at 10:32 am
I don’t approve of mocking a man for his name.
Certainly not when he has made a fool of himself anyway.
Besides my cousin is called Ashley and he’s alright… maybe this is a Transatlantic thing like the American inability to spell “colour”.
Bombing the rubble.
Who cares about a dead polar bear? Skin it and make a coat from it.
Someone cherry picked the ice page for the most favorable curve.
I don’t think it will last either once the Danes fix their measuring equipment.
“Scientists believe the Arctic could be essentially free of sea ice in September by 2054.”
———————————–
That date tells you a lot.
That means they think AMO is much more powerful than GHGs over the next 40 years and only at the very end of the next AMO halfcycle, additional GHGs or black soot will make the small difference of melting the little amount of ice left in September.
Of course they never frame their prediction that way.
Unfortunately, the warmists will just pull a 180, and say: “There may be more ice, but it isn’t as thick as it should be and that’s what’s really frightening. The extent of the ice doesn’t matter at all,” and they can continue with their propaganda unstopped. After all, they get away with it in Antarctica.
Perhaps the Polar Bear population increased so much that crowding is causing too much stress for the poor Dears.