Heidi Cullen at Senate EPW: ‘73% increase in heavy downpours’ not supported by data

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While watching her handwaving argument on the webcast with Senator Vitter, I was easily able to find data contradictory to her statement in Dr. Roger Roger Pielke Jr. submitted testimony.

What the data says:

5. Floods have not increased in the US in frequency or intensity since at least 1950.

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Figure 5. One measure of flood frequency from the USGS, percent of US streamguages above “bankfull streamflow.” The USGS explains: “The bankfull streamflow is defined as the highest daily mean streamflow value expected to occur, on average, once in every 2.3 years.”

Xiaodong Jian, David M. Wolock, Harry F. Lins, and Steve Brady, Streamflow of 2012—Water Year Summary, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia, May 2013.

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page488
July 19, 2013 8:56 pm

Oh, my – Heidi has resurfaced. At least she’s still gone from the Weather Channel.

Robertv
July 22, 2013 7:08 am

Only the Sun can warm (penetrate) the oceans, so the Sun is now heating up the deep oceans but cannot heat up the land and ocean surface. ??????????

Michael Jankowski
July 23, 2013 9:53 am

Funny how its “downpour events.” The report Heidi refers to includes snowfall. I’ve never heard of a “downpour” of snowfall. And aren’t heavy snowfalls supposed to be a thing of the past thanks to global warming?
The “events” compiled in the report Heidi referred to were 24-hr events. My perception of “downpour” is a heavy rain intensity, typically over a relatively short interval of time – certainly far less than 24 hrs. Big 24 hr events are often tied to tropical storms/hurricanes, stalled fronts (such as the Nashville storm in 2010), etc.
It would be interesting to see how much peak 1hr, 2hr, 6hr, etc, storms have changed over the years since those are what I’d consider “downpours.” I’m not sure why they weren’t studied along with the 24 hr events…makes me wonder if they were but just didn’t produce the desired results.

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