Above: note the four separate events in the last two days – from the WUWT Solar Page
(From NASA’s Spaceweather.com) When the week began, the sun hadn’t unleashed an X-flare all year long. In only two days, sunspot AR1748 has produced four. The latest X-flare from this active sunspot occured on May 15th at 0152 UT. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the extreme ultraviolet flash:
Although the sunspot is not directly facing Earth, this flare might have produced a CME with an Earth-directed component. We are waiting for coronagraph data from SOHO and the twin STEREO probes to check this possibility. Stay tuned for updates.
In summary, AR1748 has produced an X1.7-class flare (0217 UT on May 13), an X2.8-class flare (1609 UT on May 13), an X3.2-class flare (0117 UT on May 14), and an X1-class flare (0152 on May 15). These are the strongest flares of the year, and they signal a significant increase in solar activity.
lsvalgaard says: May 15, 2013 at 9:17 am
………
Hi Doc,
Nice to see you back.
Your link
http://www.leif.org/research/Even-Odd-Dst.png
445 storms during even cycles
374 storms during odd cycles
since 1905
is an excellent proof of what I meant when I said
CMEs in the even-numbered solar cycles (as is current one SC24) tend to hit Earth with a leading edge that is magnetized north. Such CMEs open a breach and load the magnetosphere with plasma starting a geomagnetic storm. In that respect the Earth’s magnetic field response to the even and odd numbered cycles is slightly different...
Since 1905 there were 5 odd numbered cycles (15, 17, 19, 21 &23) and say 5 even cycles (1/2 of each 14 and 24, then 16, 18, 20 & 22).
So what do we have as average
445/ 5 = 89 storms/ even cycle
374/5 = 74.8 ~ 75 storms/ odd cycle
which makes it on average 18% more storms during even than odd cycles.
Since both SC14, and SC24 are the weakest cycles in the period, one could take a rough rule that since 1905 we had 20% more geomagnetic storms during even cycles.
Thanks for the info.
Back to LOD (length of day) variability:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SSN-LOD.htm
During even cycles (more storms and stronger solar pressure on the magnetosphere) LOD increases up to 0.5ms, i.e. Earth’s rotation slows down and vice versa, during odd cycles (less storms and less solar pressure on the magnetosphere) the LOD decreases by 0.5ms, i.e. Earth’s rotation accelerates. From my link above it can be seen that rotation acceleration and de-acceleration starts with the SC maxima.
Notes on DST – Disturbance Storm Time
It is negative DST which is of consequence (see Dr. S’s link above), it is an indication of the ring current around earth caused by CMEs protons and electrons. This current produces magnetic field of opposite polarity to the Earth’s, temporarily reducing its strength by a fraction of a percentage point
Solar induced ring currents’ magnetic field acts as a magnetic brake on the Earth’s rotation rate !
Perhaps a mechanism not known previously ?
Paper on solar storms etc. without complicated maths
http://www.breadandbutterscience.com/SSTA.pdf
p.s. it was 5cm of snow today in the west of England.
vukcevic says:
May 15, 2013 at 10:31 am
445 storms during even cycles
374 storms during odd cycles since 1905 is an excellent proof of what I meant when I said
Nonsense, it is an excellent proof of confirmation bias. A CME always causes a magnetic storm, no matter what the cycle and what the polarity. The Sun was just a bit more active in even cycles which influences the number of CMEs. The Earth’s response to a CME is the same in even and odd cycles as the Figure shows.
Huh…..
Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the magnetosphere, Old Sol throws four X-treme e-missy fits in a row! He does seem to have a flare for that, doesn’t he?
MtK
lsvalgaard says: May 15, 2013 at 10:40 am
……..
Hi again
Well, never mind, it was a logic escalator exercise, however I would appreciate link to the data you used for your graph:
http://www.leif.org/research/Even-Odd-Dst.png
Thanks.
vukcevic says:
May 15, 2013 at 11:04 am
Well, never mind, it was a logic escalator exercise
No logic there, just false assumptions and wrong physics.
however I would appreciate link to the data you used for your graph:
http://www.leif.org/research/Even-Odd-Dst.png
There are two datasets:
1) a list of Sudden Storm Commencements e.g. http://isgi.latmos.ipsl.fr/source/indices/ssc/
2) Dst (from J. Love). A very large file on my server. If I have some time in a bit, I’ll make it available
lsvalgaard says:
May 15, 2013 at 11:17 am
2) Dst (from J. Love). A very large file on my server. If I have some time in a bit, I’ll make it available
http://www.leif.org/research/dst-love.txt warning 19 Mb.
A watched pot never boils but an unwatched pot boils over.
So let’s all keep an eye on the sun shall we.
Dr.S.
Downloaded. 19MB ends 2004,12,31,23, 10.9,
thanks
(if takes too much room you can remove it)
vukcevic says:
May 15, 2013 at 11:47 am
Downloaded. 19MB ends 2004,12,31,23, 10.9,
You can find newer data for both lists on the web if you want to [I did that for the Figure].
vukcevic says:
May 15, 2013 at 11:47 am
Downloaded. 19MB ends 2004,12,31,23, 10.9,
You can find out how geomagnetic activity works here: http://www.leif.org/research/NASA-SP366.pdf [big]. The paper is 40 years old, but nothing has really changed.
I’ve got copy of your old ‘typewriter technology’ paper
Geomagnetic Response to Solar Wind
I occasionally look at it, but I am slow learner.
(btw your link doesn’t work)
vukcevic says:
May 15, 2013 at 12:18 pm
I occasionally look at it, but I am slow learner.
(btw your link doesn’t work)
I put the typeset published version on the site now. Try that. It is easier to read and better suited for slow learners. Look at page 133ff on Geomagnetic storms. Thinking back on my children, I note that low motivation is often the excuse for slow learning. Perhaps try to be a bit more motivated.
Reblogged this on The Next Grand Minimum and commented:
I signed up for the Spaceweather.com Text Alert for X-Class Flares. Might give me time to put the vulnerable comm devices in the metal safe or my garbage can faraday cage vault.
…exchanges like these are why I keep coming back to WUWT time and again! Thanks, Lief!
CRS, Dr.P.H. says:
May 15, 2013 at 10:33 pm
…….
….or you’ve got nothing better to do.
CRS, Dr.P.H
there is strong Aurora during next 3-4 days
http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/images/Ovation_USA.png
note that it is not cantered on the ‘magnetic pole’ but on the ‘geomagnetic pole’
http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/images/polesfig1.jpg
perhaps Dr.S can elucidate so your visit was even more rewarding.
SC24 is heading for the second peak.
Yesterday NOAA’s daily count was 186 (SIDC equivalent around 130) , if I am correct, that would be the highest since 2011/11/09, when the daily NOAA count was 208.
vukcevic says:
May 15, 2013 at 11:14 pm
note that it is not cantered on the ‘magnetic pole’ but on the ‘geomagnetic pole’
This is because the magnetic pole is determined by small-scale features of the magnetic field. These fall off so strongly with altitude that they are not present in the magnetosphere where the aurorae come from.
vukcevic says:
May 16, 2013 at 1:39 am
SC24 is heading for the second peak.
And after that there will be a third peak and a fourth, etc…
Martin says:
May 15, 2013 at 5:18 am
Dell from Michigan – it’s a bit more complicated than that. Here in London the temperature has plunged and we’re back to winter temperatures after a week of warm sunny spring. So yes, coincidence.
I think you spoke too soon the temperature has just started to shoot up!
Hi Dr.S.
For 1905 to 2012 sum of all SSN annual numbers for odd cycles appears to be about 13% greater than the sum for even cycles, while the number of geomagnetic storms is reverse with 18% difference.
NASA says:
Raeder explains: “We’re entering Solar Cycle 24. For reasons not fully understood, CMEs in even-numbered solar cycles (like 24) tend to hit Earth with a leading edge that is magnetized north. Such a CME should open a breach and load the magnetosphere with plasma just before the storm gets underway. It’s the perfect sequence for a really big event.”
Sibeck agrees. “This could result in stronger geomagnetic storms than we have seen in many years.” (magnetised north= Bz vector pointing south)
I think this is important.
?
Sorry I forgot explanatory link
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/odd_even.gif
Leif, do you have an opinion on planetary secular resonance having an effect on the solar dynamo causing a possible solar tachocline induction?
vukcevic says:
May 16, 2013 at 8:19 am
Sibeck agrees. “This could result in stronger geomagnetic storms than we have seen in many years.” (magnetised north= Bz vector pointing south)
I think this is important.
Except that if one actually looks at the data, there is no difference between even and odd cycles:
http://www.leif.org/research/Even-Odd-Dst.png so you can stop speculating. Now, take the opportunity to learn.
Such a CME should open a breach
Is from a press release dumbed down beyond the facts. There is no ‘breach’. The magnetosphere is open at all times and the solar wind is magnetically connected to the Earth’s field at all times somewhere on the magnetosphere [proof of this is that the Svalgaard-Mansurov effect is always present].
Sparks says:
May 16, 2013 at 1:21 pm
Leif, do you have an opinion on planetary secular resonance having an effect on the solar dynamo causing a possible solar tachocline induction?
There is no such effect.
Leif,
Can there be an effect on the suns magnetic fields interacting with secular resonance?
lsvalgaard says: May 17, 2013 at 8:30 am
…………….
In your graph
http://www.leif.org/research/Even-Odd-Dst.png
I assume you plotted DST
Blue – average of 445 storms for even cycles
Magenta – average for 374 storms for odd cycles
Is that correct ?