Above: note the four separate events in the last two days – from the WUWT Solar Page
(From NASA’s Spaceweather.com) When the week began, the sun hadn’t unleashed an X-flare all year long. In only two days, sunspot AR1748 has produced four. The latest X-flare from this active sunspot occured on May 15th at 0152 UT. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the extreme ultraviolet flash:
Although the sunspot is not directly facing Earth, this flare might have produced a CME with an Earth-directed component. We are waiting for coronagraph data from SOHO and the twin STEREO probes to check this possibility. Stay tuned for updates.
In summary, AR1748 has produced an X1.7-class flare (0217 UT on May 13), an X2.8-class flare (1609 UT on May 13), an X3.2-class flare (0117 UT on May 14), and an X1-class flare (0152 on May 15). These are the strongest flares of the year, and they signal a significant increase in solar activity.
If you have ever paid much attention to water boiling in a pot, you may have noticed that when you allow it to cool down from a hard rolling boil the bubbles get larger. I think this is because the turbulence decreases and the bubbles are able to adhere to the bottom of the pot and grow before detaching.
I wonder if we are seeing a phenomenon like this with the sun. Turbulence is decreasing and the flares get larger.
I thought a watched pot never boils, so I don’t watch.
Interestingly, after a fairly cool spring, with wide spread record breaking cold temps the past week, we are seeing a massive heatwave coming a few days after these massive solar flares.
Coincidence?????
Or could it be that fluctuations of energy coming from that big giant orb of energy up there in the sky, has a greater affect on Earth’s temps than a 1/100th of 1% increase of the level of CO2 in the atmosphere?
Well l hope these flares help to push the jet stream northwards here in the UK.
Otherwise it looks like we are in for a other cool wet summer.
Dell from Michigan says:
May 15, 2013 at 4:53 am
Ask Piers Corbyn
lowercasefred 4:38am and Bill_W 4:45am:
So does this mean that if we stop watching the sun it’ll boil? Oh my God it’s worse than we thought and it’s All Our Fault!
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif
Massive, just “massive” I tell you!
Dell from Michigan says: Interestingly, after a fairly cool spring, with wide spread record breaking cold temps the past week, we are seeing a massive heatwave coming a few days after these massive solar flares.
Should be interesting to see whether there is any detectable influence in Arctic ice coverage. A strong event after a quiet start may show something if there’s a linkage.
Dell from Michigan – it’s a bit more complicated than that. Here in London the temperature has plunged and we’re back to winter temperatures after a week of warm sunny spring. So yes, coincidence.
If anyone is interested, you can receive notice of such events in real time.
https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov/LoginWebForm.aspx?ReturnUrl=%2fproductsubscriptionservice%2f
Has anyone notice over the past few days a phenomenon when the sky is cloudy the clouds seem to glow an intense greyish-yellow color? I’ve only seen this during years when solar maxim is occurring or when large Flares occur.
Here’s is a heliocentric view of the solar system from May 15, about the time the X-class flares took place, to give an Idea of the direction.
http://thetempestspark.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/may-15-2013.jpeg
This is what I have been working on, the orange line is a plot with physical parameters.
http://thetempestspark.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/solar-activity-mod-1.gif
Dell from Michigan says:
May 15, 2013 at 4:53 am
Interestingly, after a fairly cool spring, with wide spread record breaking cold temps the past week, we are seeing a massive heatwave coming a few days after these massive solar flares..
Pretty much same here east central Wisconsin. Joke in these parts is.. from Winter to Summer again..
If Dr. S. is lurking, some good articles left over on the “Open Thread Sunday” thread. (related to northpole, north magnetic pole, north geomagnetic pole etc..) might could be some good extracurricular reading for you, with your background already..just want to make sure you stay rounded and diverse.
Did the Voyager 1 get shrunk out of the heliosphere bubble twice? How much do the boundaries fluctuate during minimum periods such as this?
here is another view
NASA movie
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/LATEST/current_c2.gif
there is an object shooting ‘towards’ the sun most likely meteor or may be another satellite
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/LATEST/current_c2.gif
appears at 2013/05/11 21.12 till 2013/05/12 02.36 (clock face location 6.30)
Are the hard X-ray flares recorded in the TSI? The energy of these flares would pass through most detectors without being recorded. The TSI reading are sufficiently detailed that these flares should show as some sort of spike in the readings.
Retired Engineer John says:
May 15, 2013 at 6:45 am
Are the hard X-ray flares recorded in the TSI?
Even if they do, too short in duration to make any lasting difference, but there are some other important aspects:
Solar coronal mass ejections – CMEs (accompanying a flare) in the even-numbered solar cycles (as is current one SC24) tend to hit Earth with a leading edge that is magnetized north.
Such CMEs open a breach and load the magnetosphere with plasma starting a geomagnetic storm. In that respect the Earth’s magnetic field response to the even and odd numbered cycles is slightly different.
Does this matter? maybe, maybe not.
Do we have any evidence? Some evidence is found in Jackson (ETHZ) and Bloxham (Harvard) calculations, they found the lengh of day – LOD changes as inferred from the Earth’s magnetic dynamo, as I illustrated here
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SSN-LOD.htm
Is the LOD change caused by solar activity? known unknown .
What about climate change? that is even a greater known unknown, but if you are curious enough, one could speculate:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/EarthNV.htm
Hi Mod,
I inserted ‘b’ instead of ‘i’. my apologies.
1phobosgrunt says: May 15, 2013 at 5:42 am
…………..
Ms C, you are a mischievous lady.
I’d be interested to know into how much extra ionising radiation on earth (milliSievert) this translates. Not that I am affraid of it, but it’d be nice to know for instance how this compares for instance to the fallout of Hiroshima or other large radiation events.
lowercasefred says:
May 15, 2013 at 4:38 am
” cool down from a hard rolling boil”
————————————————————————
I thought the same thing many years ago , as I`ve observed that on a much larger scale , 2 tonnes of liquid 30 carbon steel in an induction furnace , back the power down , the smooth churning action slows down and there`s a brief period where there is “blooping” and spitting , looking at what looked like a big shiny molten yellow disc from above the furnace , it was hard not to compare it with the big shiny molten yellow disc looking thing in the sky exhibiting similar behaviour but I suspect that the mechanism could not be that simple with such vast differences in heat , substance , scale , shape and even gravitational intensity at play
I recall the high solar peak(s) in the mid to late 1950s. We used Motorola mobile phones with a squelch in our pickups to reach the base station. I was an electrical troubleshooter in the West Texas oilfields. When we would have a lightening storm, the trouble calls would start coming in from throughout the Permian Basin. The dispatcher would give you a list of 4 or 5 problems to start on in a general area. When you had the electricity back on and the wells back to pumping, you would normally call in to get more problems to fix, but the static was so bad in the late 1950s that you had to go somewhere and use a land phone to call back in if you were much over 10 to 20 miles away. Blown up transformers were fairly common. The shielding is much better these days so I wouldn’t expect as many difficulties as then, but the problems lasted a few years and were a real nuisance.
The temperatures would go above 105F in summer for several days in a row. In normal times the summertime temperatures would be 102-104 F peak. We are in the same part of the PDO cycle currently as we were back then. We attributed the hot summers to the sun in those days since we knew nothing about PDO or other natural cycles.
I wish one of them could get politicians to see the light. Hekla, Elbrus, etc concern me more.
vukcevic says: May 15, 2013 at 6:58 am
Retired Engineer John says: May 15, 2013 at 6:45 am
Are the hard X-ray flares recorded in the TSI?
“Even if they do, too short in duration to make any lasting difference, but there are some other important aspects:”
From reading your answer; I gather that they are not recorded. The GOES15 data could be added to make the record complete. I realize that they are small compared to the total energy coming from the Sun, but to make the record complete, they should be included. I asked the question because I could not see any indication of flare energy in the TSI traces.
Sparks says:
May 15, 2013 at 5:25 am
Has anyone notice over the past few days a phenomenon when the sky is cloudy the clouds seem to glow an intense greyish-yellow color? I’ve only seen this during years when solar maxim is occurring or when large Flares occur.
—–
That’s usually occurs before severe thunderstorms. Green and purple shades can also be seen sometimes.
vukcevic says:
May 15, 2013 at 6:58 am
starting a geomagnetic storm. In that respect the Earth’s magnetic field response to the even and odd numbered cycles is slightly different.
No, it is not: http://www.leif.org/research/Even-Odd-Dst.png
Retired Engineer John says:
May 15, 2013 at 9:02 am
I could not see any indication of flare energy in the TSI traces.
The energy from flares is so minute that they are not detectable in TSI, with the exception of superflares which make a VERY small [barely there] blip in TSI: http://sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/~tohban/nuggets/?page=article&article_id=10