Reader Psalmon writes:
Nenana River ice breakup nears top three latest dates in 97 years of contest
It may have escaped notice, but this last Saturday the locals in Nanana, AK hooked up the clock to determine the breakup and winner of the annual Nenana Ice Classic. Further ice measurements were apparently suspended last Thursday with the last measurement of 40 inches (just).
If you think May 11 seems late for starting the countdown, it is.
After the fourth earliest breakup in 2012 (April 23), as of this afternoon on May 14th, the tripod still stands, making 2013 the fourth latest breakup in the 97 years of the contest. Only 1935 (May 15), 1945 (May 16), and 1964 (May 21) still rate longer.
It’s hard to forget geophysicist Martin Jeffries at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks saying in 2009,
The Nenana Ice Classic is a pretty good proxy for climate change in the 20th century.
Sage insight.
More here:
FYI – some of the far reaching effects of the late cold pool in AK:
ANOTHER SWING IN TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED AS AN UNUSUALLY COLD SYSTEM
DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA (INTERESTING NOTE, THE SYSTEM IS ORIGINATING
IN ALASKA AS A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKS AWAY FROM A VERY LATE SEASON
STORM). 850 MB TEMPS WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND 2C BY THURSDAY.
This set up is a cold record setting set up for CA. When it happens near the Winter Solstice the results can be striking. Witness the late Dec 1990 / Early Jan 1991 outbreak, which happened shortly after all time records being set up in Fairbanks.
Latest report: (May 16, 2013)
The second latest ice breakup was 1945 May 16th at 0941 (Alaska Standard Time). The Tripod cam says 2013-05-16 AKDT 17:09:30. Or something like that – the digits have a partial white border and the sky is overcast so they’re hard to read. At any rate, we’re past the 2nd latest time, but a little less than four days for the record.
The direct link to the latest photo is http://www.nenanaakiceclassic.com/icecam/icecamsvga.jpg
Jack Hydrazine says:
May 15, 2013 at 9:48 pm
> What if the ice doesn’t completely melt? Who will be declared the winner?
It’s a river. All it has to do is push ice far enough downstream to pull the cable off the clock. That will happen long before all the ice melts. They call it “ice breakup”.
Pradagirl says:
May 16, 2013 at 12:32 am
> What will happen if no one win this year does the pot will add for next year guessing?
I think the award goes to those with the closest estimate. There are probably several bets on June just in case. Over 100,000 tickets appear to have been sold, I’m sure a lot of people were betting on outlier dates and hours to avoid the crowds in the middle. (The time slots bet on are all one hour long.)
@Jack Hydrazine
Are each of the bets a full hour in length?
The theory seems good, but needs data for strength
The tickets have places to put in the minute
It seems that it’s “closest” — one ticket will win it:
This is from a reporter … they’re frequently wrong
But it matches what I’d seen, and seems pretty strong.
===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle
“The Nenana Ice Classic is a pretty good proxy for climate change in the 20th century.”
===========================================================================
He said 20th century … and he will likely stick with what he said.
The 21st Century … now that is a whole nuther story that we will need to make up as we go along. (pretty soon though, the “data anomolies” are going to beat the hell out of the AGW proxies).
@ur momisugly Chuck Nolan…a guy has to start somewhere when trying to predict. Having a correct prediction right off the bat can aid in future predictions. So I picked an easy one.