Reactions are coming in worldwide worldwide to figure 1.4 of the IPCC AR4 draft report. and the revelation that climate sensitivity is lower by aerosol analysis than the IPCC officially projects. Hotheads are blowing gaskets because the hot air just went out of their cause. William Connolley (with an e) gets the “blown head gasket award” for this round, see below.
First some op-eds:
Washington Times: EDITORIAL: Chilling climate-change news
New leak shows predictions of planetary warming have been overstated.
Forbes: Climatologist Dr. Pat Michaels: The UN’s Global Warming Forecasts Are Performing Very, Very Badly
Investors Business Daily: Climate Change Draft Undermines U.N.’s Claims
PowerLine: Climate Alarmism: The Beginning of the End?
Climate scientist Richard Betts thanks Nic Lewis for “constructive contribution” to climate sensitivity debate. http://t.co/TU02i5rf
http://twitter.com/mattwridley/status/281706335320555521
Media Matters: WSJ’s Climate “Dynamite” Is A Dud (citing the duds dudes at “Skeptical Science”)
The Telegraph, Delingpole: Global Warming? Not a snowball’s chance in hell
Tom Nelson points out this fun exchange between Matt Ridley and William Connolley (with an e) via James Delingpole:
Twitter / JamesDelingpole: Climate troll and banned …
Climate troll and banned Wikipedia tinkerer William Connolley bursts a sphincter at Worstall’s place http://timworstall.com/2012/12/19/is-climate-change-really-a-damp-squib/ …
[Connolley comment] Anyone saying “trust me, I’m an IPCC expert reviewer” is a cretin. *Anyone* can be an “expert reviewer” just by asking to see the draft. It doesn’t mean the IPCC have vetted you in any way.
Is climate change really a damp squib?
[Matt Ridley’s sane, measured response] …I have since gradually come to the view that the extra feedback necessary to make CO2 warming dangerous is increasingly implausible, though still possible, and that the measures we are taking to cut carbon emissions are doing and will do more harm especially to poor people than warming itself. I may be wrong in this, but it’s not unreasonable to debate this possibility — and nor is it outside the scientific consensus, by the way.
I bring to the subject the same technique that I bring to all the topics I cover as a journalist. (Only on climate (and religion) am I told that my credentials disallow me from even having a view.) I read both sides of the question, I challenge assumptions and I listen to arguments. In this case reputable climate scientists like Judith Curry and Richard Betts agree that Nic Lewis has made a good case and deserves to be considered and debated. Would that Dr Connolley would show the same open-mindedness.
Over at Tamino’s place, Tamino is his usual self, calling other people and their conclusions “fake” while oblivious to his own use of a fake name.
Next, Tamino will call Nature itself “fake” for not cooperating at the correct pace. He seems to conveniently forget all the adjustments (all upwards) that been applied to the surface temperature record this past decade. No matter, as long as the adjustments fit his conclusion. /sarc
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Peter C,
Good points, Nor will the hardcore alarmist public likely ever admit to being wrong. You’d think they’d be happy things clearly look to be far from catastrophic. I swear to God, many of them woul drather we all fry just so they can say they were right…
Carter says:
December 20, 2012 at 9:34 am
Interesting question, Carter, but I’ll let you consider two experiements:
Take a large metal bucket of water and place it in your kitchen overnight to equilibrate temperature with the kitchen. Take a thermometer and submerse it in the bucket of water.
Borrow your wife’s hair dryer and, using the high temperature, blow it on the surface of the water in the bucket (avoid hitting the sides of the bucket, of course). Do this for 5-10 minutes.
Check out the temperature of the thermometer in the bucket and see if you detect any increase in temperature of the water. (As a corrollary, heat the sides of the bucket with the hair dryer and see what happens).
(So in this “sea” as you call it: Is the water warming because of the hot air above it, or does the water warm because of the solar energy it absorbs in the top layer (usually called the “photic zone”, with thickness dependent on the depth to which the sun’s rays penetrate)? )
In experiment 2, spend some time in the desert on a hot, sunny, summer day–determine which is warmer, the surface material of the desert, or the air above it.
(Wouldn’t you agree if the rock is hotter than the air, it warms the air; if the air is warmer than the rock, it warms the rock. )
Then return and report on these two experiements.
Hey, here’s a happy thought. Desperation leads to desperate measures. Maybe one or two alarmists will even agree to a debate. Wouldn’t that be tasty….:-)
I’ll tell you what scientists should be worrying about right now, and not just climate scientists. A lot of politicians and media figures have endorsed CAGW and they will look very foolish if it turns out to be a crock. They will do whatever it takes to save face, and that means finding a scapegoat. They will blame client scientists, and science in general, to save themselves.
Has anyone read what Tamino says?
He says: “What should be done is to offset the observations so that the hotter-than-average 1990 really is hotter than average. When I offset the observations by 0.1 deg.C, we get more realistic comparison of observations to projections:”
then says: “It turns out that observed global temperature has gone “right down the middle” of the IPCC projections. But, fake skeptics want you to believe otherwise”
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2012/12/20/fake-skeptic-draws-fake-picture-of-global-temperature/#more-6082
I don’t quite follow his logic.
While it would have been proven a fallacy eventually a big round of applause for Mr Watts, M & M and all the others who have been speeding up the process. The scientific method will triumph eventually but it is nice to see it happen in my lifetime (on this issue I had my doubts). Although we are far from over this is a huge blow to the anti-scientific method crowd.
Cheers and keep up the great work.
Mr. Ridley: “Only on climate (and religion) am I told that my credentials disallow me from even having a view.”
Doesn’t he realize they are now one and the same?
“ANYONE can be an expert reviewer just by asking to see the draft. It doesn’t mean the IPCC have vetted you in any way.”
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Am I supposed to be surprised about this?!
margaret berger says:
December 20, 2012 at 8:41 am
Those young earnest believers who are saving the planet will allow the parasites to milk this farce longer as they will be lost without a noble cause.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The big problem/question is what is the next Cause De Jour in the pipeline. (Ocean Acidification?)
The professional astroturf establishment is not just going to go away, it will find another Chicken Little Scare to use to milk the masses. This has been going on since the first elder figured out he could use his knowledge/experience as a lever to extract tribute/wealth from the rest of the tribe and avoid being sacrificed when the food got scarce. Thus was the first shaman born.
This also goes for the scientists/universities who have been living high on the hog thanks to CAGW and all the little students with their hot new degrees in various green technofuzzy studies.
I can not find anything on the number of students graduating with green degrees such as ‘Sustainable Energy Management’, ‘Environmental Earth Science’, ‘Sustainable Energy’, ‘Windmill Technology’ ‘Environmental Management & Policy’ ‘Environmental Management’, Sustainable MBA Degree, and what ever else colleges and universities have dream up to entice students infected with the Bambi Syndrome and Climatitisis.
However as this news story shows those degrees are popular. All the students we used to see go into English, Biology, and history degree programs and even those in chemistry, physics or engineering are going to flock to the new green degrees with their high school counselors egging them on.
However just like those useless degree like ‘Women’s Studies’ are the graduates going to find jobs out there now or a few decades or more from now? Without tax payer support I would say no and with a financial cliff facing many countries what support there is will be going away soon.
As long as the IPCC’s projections continue to diverge from observations then the end has to come sooner or later. It may come in the form of more and more scientists gaining in confidence and speaking out openly.
Anthony, why don’t you consider getting together with other AGW sceptical scientists to put out a press release at the same time as the IPCC publishes the official report in 2013? At least you have something to work on now.
Connolley with an (e) the climate science luddites,luddite…still missing the gravy train no doubt LOL
Never mind Wil wait long enough and another scare will be along soon, this time remember to be at the right station and to get on the train earlier LOL LOL LOL!
The house of cards is falling down. Now let us hope that awareness of the very real threat posed by killer cold can be addressed. The current interglacial is a gift and the current warm period within it is icing on the cake. What goes up, must come down.
jorgekafkazar says: December 20, 2012 at 8:57 am
” RMB says: “Its dead simple, surface tension blocks heat. The atmosphere can’t heat the ocean.”
Do you have any proof of this premise, other than your frequent assertions? Calculations? References? Experiments? Anything? ”
@jorge
Try heating the water in your bathtub by turning on the heater in your bathroom. Keep me posted!
I am puzzled by allegations of fake by Tamino (Grant Foster)
Tamino is the prince (and hero) in the opera The Magic Flute
His paypal button sends a donation to
“Peaseblossom’s Closet” …. Peaseblossom is the fairy servant to Titania in Midsummer’s Night Dream.
http://www.etsy.com/shop/mistletoesquest
He posts as Tamino and Grant Foster here as a member of a Celtic duo “Bedlam Boys”
https://groups.google.com/forum/?fromgroups=#!topic/alt.fairs.renaissance/ioWyR6xiZFQ
Bedlam Boys … http://www.allmusic.com/artist/bedlam-boys-mn0001861724
They play at Renaissance festivals (no artist picture).
OK, so I know this may sound like an ad hominem. Of course, the first thing thrown at serious posters at WUWT is they don’t have “climate expertise” (i.e. a degree).
But I am curious. It’s one thing that there is no “About” on his website so no way to determine his background. But the first article he publishes is on red variable stars:
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/full/1997ESASP.402..269M
but he’s only listed as a member of American Association of Variable Star Observers (http://www.aavso.org/) … a professional AND amateur association.
His affiliation is listed as Tempo Analytics, 303 Campbell Road, Garland, ME 04939, USA
[Mistletoe Hook – A Division of Peaseblossom’s Closet is in Portland, ME]
So does anyone know what kind of degree Grant Foster has and from where?
Personally, I have no problem with a “Renaissance Man” who has an Open Mind about “Science, Politics, Life, the Universe, and Everything”. You think he might have an Open Mind enough to mention who he is, and what his background is.
Regards,
Bob
P.S. I’m not a regular poster… so feel free to dump this or edit it. I teach chemistry at OSU and am always impressed by the level of scientific expertise that you attract.
P.P.S. I think Connolley must be mad because he didn’t get his Noble Prize Certificate like Mann.
“Phyllograptus says:
December 20, 2012 at 7:40 am
There is evidence based decision making & decision based evidence making. Guess which none the IPCC has been using”
Very Clever and to the point!
A warmer atmosphere may or may not be able to warm the oceans, however a warmer atmosphere does make it harder for the oceans to transfer the heat the sun is putting into it up to the atmosphere.
So in the end, the result is the same.
James at 48 says:
December 20, 2012 at 12:08 pm
The house of cards is falling down. Now let us hope that awareness of the very real threat posed by killer cold can be addressed. The current interglacial is a gift and the current warm period within it is icing on the cake…..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Unfortunately the very real threat posed by killer cold is treated openly as a ‘conspiracy theory’ even here on WUWT.
Is the Climate going to cool? Eventually since we are towards the end of this interglacial. Are we going to see cooling in the next few decades? I think so but there are plenty of people who would call me nuts. Unfortunately while warming and an increase of CO2 are not a threat cooling is and because the Climastrologists have been dicking with the temperature record we really have no idea whether or not it is actually cooling. Dr Spencer’s data is the closest we come to un-mucked up data.
For what it is worth this is what I am watching
graph
graph
What frightens the dickens out of me is the way the Ag Cartel ably aided by politicians is messing with the food supply but that is 11 pages just to hit the highlights. (The USA grows ~ 25% of the world’s grain and no longer has strategic grain reserves and my state just made it illegal for me to give neighbors my homegrown veggies.)
Many in the global warming community have crawled so far out on that limb that there is no way they can crawl back and keep their reputations intact at the same time. There only hope is to tough it out and hope that they can keep the scam going until it’s time for them to retire.
Water is opaque to infrared i.e., greenhouse gas radiation. See the absorbency spectrum of water. SST is totally unaffected by the greenhouse effect. Sea surface temperature is determined by insolation in the short wave spectrum i.e., visible light. This is one of the earth-sized holes in AGW theory.
—
Half right.
Water temperature is determined by energy in vs energy out. Solar insulation counts for most of the energy in, however the temperature of the atmosphere directly affects the rate at which energy can leave the oceans. So a warmer atmosphere will result in a warmer ocean, because less energy is escaping rather than more energy entering.
How many errors can you find in his ranting about the temp for the last 3 years using HadCruT GISS and NCDC:
“Although all three trend lines slope upward, their slopes aren’t statistically significant. But that doesn’t mean they’re not upward. It just means that there’s not enough data in 16 years to tell for sure, statistically speaking, which way they’re going. That always happens — always — when the time span is short.”
And he is suppose to be an educated man?
Opps 16 years.
mpainter says:
December 20, 2012 at 10:11 am
Carter says: December 20, 2012 at 9:24 am
=======================================
Water is opaque to infrared i.e., greenhouse gas radiation. See the absorbency spectrum of water. SST is totally unaffected by the greenhouse effect. Sea surface temperature is determined by insolation in the short wave spectrum i.e., visible light. This is one of the earth-sized holes in AGW theory.
NO I DIDN’T! What are doing, making up statements in a most obvious way, it seems!!! Well what can you expect from people like you?
Carter says:
December 20, 2012 at 9:24 am
FAO RBM
I’m with jorgekafkazar on this
‘Do you have any proof of this premise, other than your frequent assertions? Calculations? References? Experiments? Anything?’
Take a look and check!
It’s not over by any means, but as it becomes ever more obvious that the IPCC has been exaggerating more and more scientists will be jumping ship to protect themselves. Once the rush for the exit starts in earnest, watch out below.
—-
The problem is that there are a number of prestigious “scientists” and “scientific organizations” that have bet there entire career on pushing this scam. They can’t back out now without completely losing their credibility and quite possibly, jobs. These people and groups will continue to fight a rear guard action for as long as they can. They have to milk enough out of thise before it collapses to ensure they can live comfortably in retirement.
FAO RockyRoad
‘Borrow your wife’s hair dryer and, using the high temperature, blow it on the surface of the water in the bucket (avoid hitting the sides of the bucket, of course). ‘Do this for 5-10 minutes’ seems like a flawed experiment to me! Where what is the control? How does a hair dryer equate to the Sun and a bucket of water to an Ocean?
Carter, @ur momisugly where he comes unglued above.
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Golly, how excitable you are. What you see on my comment is a standard convention. All below the hatched line is my response to your comment at the time given above it.
Please pardon my attempt to enlighten you.It won’t happen again, I promise.