From the University of Calgary Utoday:
Melting Arctic ice cap at record low – By Heath McCoy
Think of a poor hamster on a spinning wheel, caught up by momentum and unable to stop until it’s overwhelmed, sent tumbling, crashing out of control inside.
That’s the analogy John Yackel, head of the department of geography, makes when he considers the annual summer ice melt in the Arctic, which he’s been closely monitoring for the past 15 years – documenting the ice cover as it’s steadily shrunk in the wake of Arctic and global warming.
Thoughts of imminent crashes seem particularly ominous this year as last week marked the unofficial peak, or the end of the summer ice melt, with ice levels more dramatically diminished than at any time since satellite monitoring began 33 years ago.
The previous record low for Arctic sea ice extent, set on Sept. 18, 2007 with a 4.17-million sq.-km. ice cap, was already shattered by the end of August this year when it had melted to below 4-million sq. km.
“This is the smallest minimum ice extent we’ve ever had, and not just in the satellite record, but probably in the last million years,” says Yackel, a sea ice geophysicist and climatologist.
From the patterns he has observed, this year’s extreme melt could be the beginning of a frightening trend.
Yackel and the university-based Cryosphere Climate Research Group use satellite technology to research the physical properties of Arctic ice. As recently as the 1980s, most of the ice in the Arctic Ocean was “multi-year ice,” – thick ice that would remain throughout the summer. At that time, the split between multi-year ice and seasonal ice – ice that would melt away in the summer – was about 80 per cent multi-year and 20 per cent seasonal.
“In the last 20 years we’ve almost gotten to the point where we’ve reversed that ratio,” Yackel says, predicting the ice extent that covers the Arctic Ocean “is likely to be gone in the summers within the next 20 to 25 years, if not sooner.”
The depleting ice cover would have serious ramifications for the planet. Arctic ice acts as a reflector of sunlight, helping regulate the Earth’s temperature, cooling the climate.
“When there’s no longer that sea ice below the air mass and it’s just open ocean, that’s when more moisture off the ocean’s surface gets into the atmosphere and the water vapor in the atmosphere makes for more violent storms,” says Yackel.
“We can also expect to see an increase in storm frequency and storm intensity for most of the world’s populated places as the Arctic and Earth continues to warm.”
I’ve read several papers recently that have found that the arctic has been ice free several times in the last million years.
Surely, even in Canada, 4M sq. mi. is greater than 0 sq. mi.
I see many comments to the effect that ‘the winter ice is normal’. It is not.
In a system with random variations chaotic swings, one would expect “normal” to sometimes swing above average and sometimes swing below average. The truth is that the winter maximum has been “below average” for 9 straight years. 2003 was the last year that the winter ice maximum was about the mid-line http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.arctic.png .
The odds of that happening by random chance are 0.4%.
2-4 times in the last nine years, there have been a few weeks where the extend was “close” to normal during the winter. There were a couple times during that decade when ice peaked above “normal” very briefly at other times of the year. But during the majority of weeks during the majority of the years during the past decade the extend — summer and winter and spring and fall — were below average on the chart.
Now, you could argue that the record is very short in terms of climate and that such trends are not sufficient to say there is a long-term change. You can easily make a case for such an argument. But you can’t look at http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.arctic.png and conclude anything but that winter ice (and spring and summer and fall ice) continues to be unusually low compared to the ~ 35 year satellite record.
Hamster wheels are passe. Now they run around in clear plastic balls, going wherever they want in a random walk (run) until they bang into something. Which btw is a better metaphor for the arctic climate system — a more complex behavior with limits — than the cartoonish one presented by McCoy
I couldn’t find anywhere in the article where they discuss the record low extent of Antarctic sea ice to prove global warming. I also forget the right way to turn off the sarc command.
Otter says: “They do it constantly enough that we’re pretty sure they are just having fun.”
SasjaL says: “A good descripton of the AGW hysteria …”
P. Solar says: “evidence is mounting that AGW alarmists display the same behavioural patterns as hamsters.”
prjindigo says: “Hamsters with lofty aspiration towards lemminghood, it seems.”
More like aspirations toward Disney “science”:
http://www.snopes.com/disney/films/lemmings.asp
As with the lemming hoax, CAGW “scientists” put the story line above the truth.
dikranmarsupial says:
September 26, 2012 at 3:02 am
Roy, you do know that Arctic sea ice extent is shrinking *faster* than the climatologists models predicted, don’t you?
Nice that you point out climate models are almost completely worthless … but don’t worry, most folks here already knew that.
Tim Ball said:
It doesn’t matter for their PR though. They can just say anything they want laced with “alarmist speak”, and the ultra-liberal knowledge-hostile academic environment sops it up like a dry mop.
dikranmarsupial says:
September 26, 2012 at 2:53 am
Roy, you are aware aren’t you that Arctic sea ice extent has been shrinking much *faster* than in the model projections, see e.g.
—-
If the ice had melted because the Arctic is getting warmer, then you might have actually had a point.
“The beginning of the 14th Century is marked by one of
the great disasters of human history. The rain started in 1315, and
continued particularly in the summers for 7 years.”
———————————————-
That was ‘divine retribution’ for the execution of Jaques de Molay in 1314. This is why Friday 13th is still ‘unlucky for some’.
😉
.
His poor students. Trapped in a world of make believe.
“John Yackel, […] considers the annual summer ice melt in the Arctic, which he’s been closely monitoring for the past 15 years”
Maybe he thinks just constantly monitoring the extent anomaly is sufficient for research, rather than look elsewhere for more information.
It was good to see some real science though, like others I made the mental hypothesis that hamsters would not crash, but actual evidence showed the hypothesis was wrong. Climate science should take note.
Following this record low in Arctic sea ice, I predict the “Greatest re-freeze evah!” I further predict that this record-shattering event will get very little attention.
“This is the smallest minimum ice extent we’ve ever had, and not just in the satellite record, but probably since the MWP” says Yackel, a sea ice geophysicist and climatologist.
There, fixed it.
Chris B says:
September 26, 2012 at 12:43 am
Tiny Tim’s Global Sea Ice prediction circa 1960′s.
=============
It would appear that Hansen and Gore are simply echoing the predictions of Tiny Tim. However, unlike today’s climate fanatics, Tiny Tim saw it as a sign of our salvation. Here is the prediction from 50 years ago.
Tiny Tim The Other Side
One nigh is brown
the other is brown
I am a fish
I swim around
You say I’m lost
I disagree
The map has changed
and with it, me
Gliding through the seaweed
what strange things I see below
Cars are waiting
windshields wiping
Nowhere left to go!
Oh…
The ice caps are melting
Oh, ho, ho ho
All the world is drowning
Ho, ho ho, ho ho
The ice caps are melting
the tide is rushing in
All the world is drowning
to wash away the sin
The seagull flies
in search of land
The children hide
beneath the sand
As golden toys
come floating down
I play the fish
I swim around
Gliding through the seaweed
what strange things I see below
Cars are waiting
windshields wiping
Nowhere left to go!
Oh…
The ice caps are melting
Oh, ho, ho ho
All the world is drowning
Ho, ho ho, ho ho
The ice caps are melting
the tide is rushing in
All the world is drowning
to wash away the sin
Now everybody sing!
I tell you, my dear friend…
Oh how wonderful it is!
Know that whoever you are
we can all be happy and singing!
No matter if you’re out there parked to that car along the highway
Or whether you’re at home, sitting by the radio
Or whether you’re having them good meals
Or whether you’re by the TV set
Let everyone sing about those melting ice caps
how they’re coming down into the sea
and let us all have a swimming time, as we sing;
The ice caps are melting
Oh, ho, ho ho
All the world is drowning
Ho, ho ho, ho ho
The ice caps are melting
the tide is rushing in
All the world is drowning
to wash away the sin
I agree that the “million year” hyperbole was a mistake. There are traces of the Holocene Climate Optimum on the Arctic coasts which show that sea level was higher, (despite the fact in many places the land has risen due to Isostatic Rebound,) and geologists can see clear signs of shoreline features caused by surf and open water, which are quite different from the features caused by the wind-driven floes and grinding bergs of an ice-covered sea.
Add to that the fact the original pioneers of the Arctic,(the Independence I Culture,) heated and apparently built their homes of driftwood, and one gets the idea the shores of the Arctic Sea were littered with driftwood brought into the sea by Arctic rivers. In fact one stress that “might” have led to the end of that first culture may have been the simple fact they ran out of driftwood to burn. (Even in a warmer time the winter nights would have been very long and dark.)
The current situation in the arctic is very interesting, and will be fascinating to watch. There are all sorts of things to be in awe of and to wonder about. It seems silly to lower the discussions with a “million year” hyperbole that suggests a great lack of research.
re. Dikranmarsupial:
“Roy, you are aware aren’t you that Arctic sea ice extent has been shrinking much *faster* than in the model projections, see e.g. http://www.realclimate.org/images/seaice10.jpg, in fact the current sea ice extent is below the lower limit of the credible interval of the ensemble. Sea ice extent is an example where the models (and climatologists) are obviously unduly optimistic.”
I would change that last word to “unskillful”. Your takeaway point is that climatologists can’t model and forecast? And we should place credibility in them?
Salient:
===========================
SasjaL says:
September 26, 2012 at 12:12 am
Think of a poor hamster on a spinning wheel, caught up by momentum and unable to stop until it’s overwhelmed, sent tumbling, crashing out of control inside.
A good descripton of the AGW hysteria …
==================================
If you didn’t click on the Tiny Tim song, it certainly captures the spirit of unwitting self-parody.
Tim Folkerts says:
September 26, 2012 at 6:34 am
I see many comments to the effect that ‘the winter ice is normal’. It is not.
Explain “normal”, please.
Re: Jimbo 3:01 am
RE: Yackel’s: but probably in the last million years
Your two abstracts give an explaination to the “last million years”. The second abstract talks about probably for a millenium or more,
million years == millenium
Simple mistake. Anyone could do it. Either Yackel has to work on his handwriting, or learn to insist on reviewing PR pieces where he is quoted incorrectly.
Either way, Yackel probably has learned a lesson here.
And so have we. Yackel == Cackle
Think of all the whales and seals that will be saved by an ice free arctic. Otherwise, if the sea is covered with ice, they have to survive by breathing through holes in the ice. If these holes freeze over, they die from suffocation. Of course their cascaras sink to the bottom under the ice, so out of sight out of mind, folks only worry about the polar bears. Why isn’t Al out their campaigning to help the whales?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narwhal
Mortality often occurs when the narwhals suffocate after they fail to leave before the surface of the Arctic waters freezes over in the late fall.[9] Macdonald, D.W.; Barrett , P. (1993). Mammals of Europe. New Jersey: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-691-09160-9.
Looking at the charts, I see that there wasn’t anything particularly special about the 2012 sea ice extent until mid August this year. Is that really what we would expect from global warming? A sudden step-change in the level of ice over a matter of days? I think not. The storm on 1st August seems much more likely to be the culprit. I love the way Team AGW gets all excited about this kind of thing though – it clearly shows how vacuous their argument is or they’d have the wit to realise what utter tosh they are talking.
Some very scientific statements:
“we’ve reversed that ratio”
“… probably in the last million years”
“… is likely to be gone”
He needs to weight that evaporation against the sublimation that was happening and less sublimation that will happen due to the area of glaciers supposedly being reduced. Also it would depend on wind speeds. It’s certainly more complex problem than the article makes out.
“We have a clear strategic direction to become one of Canada’s top five research universities by 2016…”
“The University of Calgary will be a global intellectual hub….”
Good luck!
“…was about 80 per cent multi-year and 20 per cent seasonal. In the last 20 years we’ve almost gotten to the point where we’ve reversed that ratio…”
The 80 20 rule must also apply to reversing intellectual content emerging from U of Calgary.
Thanks for the great information. Can you now tell me what the cause[s] are for the shrinkage over the last 33 years odd years?