Large sunspot Group AR1520, seen below just right of center, was pointed directly at Earth when the flare occurred.
The GOES Xray Flux spike hit X 1.4, just barely an X-class:
From Spaceweather.com
Big sunspot AR1520 unleashed an X1.4-class solar flare on July 12th at 1653 UT. Because this sunspot is directly facing Earth, everything about the blast was geoeffective. For one thing, it hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) directly toward our planet. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will hit Earth on July 14th around 10:20 UT (+/- 7 hours) and could spark strong geomagnetic storms.
The explosion also strobed Earth with a pulse of extreme UV radiation, shown here in a movie recorded by NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory:
The UV pulse partially ionized Earth’s upper atmosphere, disturbing the normal propagation of radio signals around the planet. Monitoring stations in Norway, Ireland and Italy recorded the sudden ionospheric disturbance.
Finally, solar protons accelerated by the blast are swarming around Earth. The radiation storm, in progress, ranks “S1” on NOAA space weather scales, which means it poses no serious threat to satellites or astronauts. This could change if the storm continues to intensify. Stay tuned.
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As solar storm go, this is a moderate one. Judging from the magnetic field in the photosphere the orientation of the field in the CME magnetic cloud seems to be pointing North at its front. This is another hint of only a weak geomagnetic storm. But we shall see.
Thanks Anthony,
Curious : how strong is this Solar flare compared to some other ones we experienced over the past year ?
Also, (how much) is solar irradiance (total solar output) affected by flares like this ?
Ohno! Nekked protons! They’ll eat all our spare electrons! Flee! Fly! Flow!
What Flum?
Here is #1520 (and its companion group, #1519) setting with the sun into Demir Dagh Ridge, near Mosul, Iraq.
http://www.tuxedo-mines.com/DSC09129.JPG
Does that mean I will have to take extra proton pump inhibitors or my heartburn will get worse?
Computer modeling would be so much easier if the Sun would just remain constant. Now we have to add a solar fudge factor.
To hit the earth it needs to pointed at where the earth will be a few days from now, doesn’t it? Pointed directly at us today means the earth will have moved out of the way by the time it arrives sort of like failing to lead the clay pigeon in a skeet shoot.
SO, impact on Sunday?
Thanks for the news and analysis.
Rob Dekker says:
July 12, 2012 at 10:56 pm
Also, (how much) is solar irradiance (total solar output) affected by flares like this ?
VERY little. We can hardly measure how little. Only for flares ten times as strong is the a measurably effect: http://spot.colorado.edu/~koppg/TSI/ “While flares are readily detectable at short wavelengths, where the Sun generally has relatively low signal, their contribution to the entire energy output from the Sun is almost negligibly small, making them extremely difficult to detect in TSI”
John Doe says:
July 13, 2012 at 4:13 am
To hit the earth it needs to pointed at where the earth will be a few days from now, doesn’t it?
No, as the Earth moves rather slowly, approximately one degree [seen from the Sun – in one year, 365 days, the Earth covers a full circle, 360 degrees]. It takes the CME four days [at most] the travel from the Sun to the Earth. The CME is wide, some 50 degrees, so that the earth has moved 4 degrees out of the 50, doesn’t matter.
Strange the MSM has not catch in on this one, as this one is directed at Earth.
The clarity and resolution of the recording of that event is stunning. With multiple space-born scientific observation platforms, we’re poised to learn more – and more quickly – than we ever have before. What a fascinating area of science Leif Svalgaard gets to explore. I envy you.
So in a day or so, we won’t experience something similar to the final scene of that god-awful movie “knowing”…
http://youtu.be/c6jP-2x6Y6Y
will this intensify the northern lights?
Jim murphy says:
July 13, 2012 at 11:28 am
will this intensify the northern lights?
Yes, some, but not spectacularly, such as moving the northern light down to very low latitudes.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/solar-storm-incoming-federal-agencies-provide-inconsistent-confusing-information/2012/07/13/gJQAkm06hW_blog.html
Notice how NOAA and NASA can’t seem to agree on the severity or even the arrival time of this CME???
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/solar-storm-incoming-federal-agencies-provide-inconsistent-confusing-information/2012/07/13/gJQAkm06hW_blog.html
NOAA and NASA cant seem to agree on this flare’s severity or even when the CME will arrive at Earth…
Hey, I am heading for the top of the continental divide with my Nikon just on the outside chance something interesting might happen. I had an alpine start planned for a hike with a friend tomorrow anyway. What the heck, you never know.
Computer modeling would be much easier if you just put the electro back into magnetic. Even your very first graph says it all.
Love the video too, very electricity like isn’t it
Actually, it’s a good excuse to check your survival preps for storms like the one that hit DC a week ago. Don’t expect to actually need anything, but if a big one ever happens, and you are prepared, you’ll be glad.
Never having heard of the movie knowing I decided to watch the youtube clip. You owe me ten minutes.
Steven says:
July 13, 2012 at 3:51 pm
Computer modeling would be much easier if you just put the electro back into magnetic. Even your very first graph says it all.
The effect of the CMEon the Earth is caused by its magnetic field reconnecting with the Earth’s. The resulting magnetic configuration is unstable and will eventually break down, creating electric currents that light up the sky.
This situation of extreme earth facing events on the Sun (significant active Regions /Coronal Holes) just preceding extreme weather events ~13-14.5 July (ie 14/15th) on Earth was predicted by WeatherAction in forecasts issued end June
http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=472&c=5
Piers Corbyn