Guest post by Robert Phelan
One of our commenters last week was going on about how the Northwest Passage was opening up and ships were making the passage… there is a website which tracks world wide shipping…. So my question was, “gee, how many ships are using this nifty new passage?”
http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shiplocations.phtml
West of Greenland, there appear to be only three manned vessels, the Russian tanker Volgoneft-131, which has been making it’s way south at about three or four miles per day for the last week ( http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=UFTA ), the French yacht Vagabond (call sign FLAO http://www.damocles-eu.org/press/Images_from_the_polar_yacht_Vagabond_85.shtml ) which has been anchored in Jones Sound off Ellesmere Island for the last week, and the Royal Arctic Line container ship Irena Artica ( http://www.ral.gl/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=215&Itemid=192&lang=en ) crawling up the west coast of Greenland in Baffin Bay.
The answer seems to be “none”. Only those three north of 70N. WUWT?
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From Günther on July 11, 2012 at 10:22 pm:
http://barentsobserver.com/en/arctic/northern-sea-route-without-murmansk-06-07
Starting next year, you’ll have to specify if you’re making comparisons to the old or the new Northern Sea Route.
And the Russians are assuming greater control of the area? Yeah, that’ll make the route much more popular. Or not.
Does anyone know if the gps constellation is reliable in the arctic ocean?
My take on this is to change the titles of the elements that conspire to forward UNFCCC conform claims only.
Social climate scientist, social journalist, social science magazine, social news media, etc etc
?
Here in France they just keep prattling on in the daily weather forecast at every weather event about ‘le rechauffement climatique’ It’s like nothing ever happened the last decade. In France it’s real and no MSM ever questions it.
No wonder there are a lot of ‘stupid’ reporters around. If you don’t look for it yourself you won’t find anything saying otherwise. And since most Frenchies consider English the language of the devil they have precious little alternate sources.
http://barentsobserver.com/en/arctic/best-bidder-gets-nuclear-icebreaker-deal-03-07
Didn’t they get the memo about the soon-to-be “ice free” Arctic? Why do they want these newer and better icebreakers that will soon become irrelevant, except perhaps in winter?
Looks like Russia is planning for much more ship traffic by planning on reducing much more thick solid ice into broken-up slush.
The vessel St Roch that Robert E. Phelan mentions is housed in the Vancouver Maritime Museum:
http://vancouvermaritimemuseum.com/main.jsp?page=216
The London Times had a full page advert for a luxury cruise through the NW passage in August this year. That’d probably be one.
Commercially, I’d have thought that the NE passage is simpler. Far fewer narrow channels to navigate.
Anyone asked the Russian naval services how many commercial vessels plan on going through this September???
Robert E. Phelan says: July 11, 2012 at 10:43 pm
… Jesse seemed unaware of a number of things about the Northwest Passage, including that it was navigated by a wooden-hulled RCMP schooner, the St. Roch, in 1942. And here we are, half-way through the melt season, and the traffic is sparse.
######## ######
That’s only half of the truth:
The schooner St.Roch made the passage travelling from 1940 until 1942: thus they needed three melting seasons. This gives an different impression than than Robert’s statement.
Anybody remember the Australian couple attempting the Northwest Passage from last year ?
http://www.nunatsiaqonline.ca/stories/article/65674australian_explorers_attempting_to_sail_the_northwest_passage/
It looks like they have just resumed their journey a few days ago:
http://www.yachtteleport.com/
Mark T says (July 11, 2012 at 6:53 pm): ‘I think those “dark ships” are sometimes referred to as “nuclear submarines.”’
That raises an interesting point. Is the northwest passage navigable by submerged submarines? If so, is it shorter than the polar route?
St Roch:
“•First vessel to complete the Northwest Passage in one season (1944), also making it the first to use the more northerly, deeper route and to complete the Passage in both directions”
http://www.vancouvermaritimemuseum.com/page216.htm
steve r asks
Does anyone know if the gps constellation is reliable in the arctic ocean?
it is pinpoint accurate at 70 degrees, and reliable too.
The Volgoneft-131 doesn’t seem to be traveling through the “northwest passage,” so much as “sitting in the middle of an icepack, hardly moving at all.”
I have a feeling that it’s out there for some other reason – it’s a tanker (and a small one at that), so I’d be looking at it more like a support ship. What is it refueling?
Walter H Schneider and jbird – totally agree – but the problem is, these morons are on the TELLY so everyone (apart from us, of course) thinks they must be telling the truth..!
This reminds me of a saying in my world (Information Technology) ‘Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.’
MFKBoulder says: July 12, 2012 at 12:55 am
As near as I can tell, you are correct. The first St. Roch voyage was 1940-1942, and though wooden-hulled she was built for arctic conditions. In 1944 the St. Roch made the return voyage in a single season. My point, however, is that this is not the first time such a voyage was possible – and just how possible is open to debate, apparently. The ship-location-tracking sites don’t seem to have a fix on everyone, everywhere, all the time, but there doesn’t seem to be any traffic now.
cirby says: July 12, 2012 at 4:37 am
I had the same thought: “Why is a small tanker moving south out of the pack ice?” As Robert Service put it: “There are strange things done in the midnight sun…”
Robert E. Phelan says:
July 12, 2012 at 7:52 am
MFKBoulder says: July 12, 2012 at 12:55 am
As near as I can tell, you are correct. The first St. Roch voyage was 1940-1942, and though wooden-hulled she was built for arctic conditions. In 1944 the St. Roch made the return voyage in a single season. My point, however, is that this is not the first time such a voyage was possible – and just how possible is open to debate, apparently. The ship-location-tracking sites don’t seem to have a fix on everyone, everywhere, all the time, but there doesn’t seem to be any traffic now.
It’s happening every year now, multiple yachts etc. in both directions, although being smart they don’t usually try until the time when the Passage actually opens (the last part to clear is usually north of Gjoa Havn around early August). Last year a yacht completed the circumnavigation of the Arctic in one season leaving Norway and sailing the NE passage along the Russian coast, crossing the Bering Strait and then sailing through the NW passage.
You can lead a whore to culture, but you can’t make her think.
~~~~~~~~~~~
By the way, I think those ship tracker web sites, of which there are a number, are connected to the companies which provide the equipment on the vessels. As such, no site is likely to show all the vessels in any area.
Be Nice!
They were taking about the OTHER Northwest Passage 🙂
Such was just like the other ‘FAIL’ narratives I wrote about last month at my American Thinker article (which linked to a WUWT blog piece as one bit of my evidence): “Global Warming’s Killer: Critical Thinking” http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/06/global_warmings_killer_critical_thinking.html
PhilMB says:
July 11, 2012 at 7:47 pm
Zooming into the Bearing Sea is a China cargo carrier “XUE LONG” heading up and around to Iceland.
Where did you get the idea it’s a cargo vessel?
Ship Type: Research/survey vessel
Year Built: 1993
Length x Breadth: 167 m X 25 m
Gross Tonnage: 14997, DeadWeight: 8759 t
Speed recorded (Max / Average): 12.4 / 10.8 knots
Flag: China [CN]
Call Sign: BNSK
IMO: 8877899, MMSI: 412863000
It’s not due in Iceland until 15 August 2012 at 10am so its got plenty of time and an ice breaking capability to get there so it can go via the North Pole if they want it to.
http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/showallphotos.aspx?imo=8877899#top_photo
When I looked it was heading NW at 2.7kts – not really likely to be taking cargo anywhere, is it?
Are you in the misinformation business?
Steve R says:
July 11, 2012 at 11:58 pm
Does anyone know if the gps constellation is reliable in the arctic ocean?
Too late late to ask now, you should have thought of that before planning your expedition:
http://www.arcticrow.com/
🙂
Seriously, it is the Global Positioning System and the satellite orbits are designed to allow a minimum of 4 simultaneously in view with adequate geometry for accurate fixing anywhere on the surface of the earth.
Short answer = yes it is reliable anywhere on earth.
I don’t understand the point of this posting. There is no point in considering the busyness of the NWP until it gets close to opening, just as you don’t look for people in the vicinity of a pub an hour before opening time. Keep an eye on the Sea Ice Reference page and you can judge when it’s getting close. It probably will open this year, but it’s not a done deal. I would guess that adverse winds would have the ability to keep the western end blocked. Perhaps someone knows more about that consideration than a guess 🙂
Rich.
Ship tracking websites in general display only ships that have their AIS transponder on, and have an AIS recieving station within range (up to 50 nm) to pick up the signal. Coverage along the NW passage is poor to nonexistent.
Shipping through the NW passage is nonetheless very, very sparse. I did not find fresh stats but abt. 30 ships a year is a good guess. I live by the Northern Baltic Sea myself and we have more ships going by every afternoon.
Billy Liar says:
July 12, 2012 at 12:54 pm
“Are you in the misinformation business?”
My apologies All – I misinterpreted what I saw on the map, ’twas not my intent to mislead.