A refreshing change on sea level policy – use historical data rather than model projections

An update to what we reported here yesterday  – Science vs AGW Advocacy in North Carolina, from HamptonRoads.com:

N.C. Senate approves sea level calculation bill

The North Carolina Senate has approved a bill that ignores scientists’ warnings of rising sea levels.

Senators approved the bill on a 34-to-11 35 to 12 vote Tuesday. The measure received little fanfare and no senators spoke in opposition to the measure.

The bill now goes back to the House for a vote.

HB 819 says that only the N.C. Coastal Resources Commission can calculate how fast the sea is rising for state governmental purposes and those calculations must be based on historic trends, which are much lower than the science panel’s projections.

Full story here

UPDATE: John Droz reports that the story had the vote count wrong, I’ve corrected the text. He writes:

On 6/12/12 the NC Senate voted FOR this bill 35 to 12. The NC House will vote in the next day or so.

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June 13, 2012 8:08 pm

Good to see the government increasing regulation. We can all agree increased government regulation is a good thing with never an unintended consequence.

OssQss
June 13, 2012 8:13 pm

Just another day in the park for the models, until you look a little deeper into their accuracy.,,,,, Just don’t work historically speakin………

GeoLurking
June 13, 2012 9:00 pm

toto (June 13, 2012 at 11:12 am)
“Another glorious episode in the legislation of science, in the spirit of the the Indiana pi bill.”
And if you note… it was based on someones model rather than actual observation. The N.C. bill points to observations rather than models.

June 14, 2012 5:55 am

sceptical says:
Good to see the government increasing regulation. We can all agree increased government regulation is a good thing with never an unintended consequence.
As I’m reading it, this is increasing regulation ON GOVERNMENT.

ferd berple
June 14, 2012 6:42 am

Thomas Hale Streets described Kingman reef in the 1870s:
… It is entirely under water at high tide, and but a few coral heads project here and there above the surface at low water.
After 140 years of sea level rise:
There are two small strips of dry land composed of coral rubble and giant clamshells on the eastern rim with areas of 2 acres (8,000 m2) and 1 acre (4,000 m2)[4] having a coastline of 3 kilometres (2 mi).[2] The highest point on the reef is less than 5 feet (1.5 m) above sea level,[4] which is wetted or awash most of the time, making Kingman Reef a maritime hazard.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingman_Reef

Resourceguy
June 14, 2012 11:45 am

Be careful guys, models with small survey samples of household income assessments are used to determine money flow to states and local areas for socail programs. They can just nudge those models and punish you with less Federal largess by saying you are the 1 percent. Anyway, have a great time at the Dem convention in NC this year…..as soon as they shake down another industry to pay for it.

June 14, 2012 12:51 pm

Gunga Din says:
June 13, 2012 at 7:45 pm
Slightly off this specific topic, but I remember many months ago reading something about the SLR measurements being padded. I think it something to do with about a fingernail’s width being added each year to the actual measurement. The excuse given had something to do with compensating for the land springing back after the ice age. Does anybody else remember that?
==================================================================
I found the story. It’s about a year old.
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/06/17/research-center-under-fire-for-adjusted-sea-level-data/

June 14, 2012 6:58 pm

Oh, that’s good. Just pretend it isn’t happening. I thought Canute had that lesson covered a thousand years ago.
Some will ignore the problem.
Some will delay and deny.
Some will panic and despair.
Some will act selfishly.
Some will act altruistically.
Some will argue over differences of approach.
Some will collaborate effectively.
Some will show leadership.
NC is legislating to ignore the problem. They’re ignoring the disclaimer on investment advice — past performance is no indication of future performance.

Otter
June 15, 2012 1:52 am

mildaykerr~ they are pretending What isn’t happening? How can one ignore a problem that doesn’t exist?

BillD
June 15, 2012 4:03 am

As temperatures rise, ice melts faster and the volume of water also increases. With a temperature of 76oF in Greenland in this May, can we really be so sure that the ice won’t melt? All that computer models do is put our best understanding of a process in mathematical form and show the result by projecting into the future. I don’t really see how it will cost taxpayers on the East Coast more money if projections show that they should not build their homes and other structures on land that is likely to be flooded during storms.
Using a little caution may cost developers and current land owners, but it will save federal and state money in the longer term. Since insurance companies are following the science, perhaps lack of insurance will also help limit building in areas that are facing increasing risk of “recurrent flooding.”

Jim Ryan
June 22, 2012 7:52 am

Epilogue: I’d missed this story, until an MSNBC fan and friend of mine announced to me the other day that North Carolina had made it illegal to accept scientific evidence that the sea levels are rising.
Sigh.

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