The Arctic sea ice extent forecasting contest is on again. As before I’ll allow readers to submit their best estimates in a poll, and I’ll submit those results as we’ve done in the past two years. Last year, the forecast submitted by reader poll was a bit high, probably due to optimism that abounds here as opposed to the gloomy outlooks submitted by others.
This year, due to the near normal excursions, it might be tempting to again submit a significantly higher value than 5.0 million square kilometers, it might also be tempting to “pull a Zwally” and declare the sea ice will be gone entirely. I don’t recommend either forecast.
Here, you can read the post season summary from 2011.
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2011/summary
And here are the guidelines for 2012 submissions.
From http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/guidelines
The SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook organizers are now soliciting pan-arctic and regional outlooks for the 2012 season. We encourage past and new contributors to participate.
The 2012 Outlook season will be a transition year to an expanded Outlook in 2013; this year, we would like to focus on expanding discussion of ice thickness, expanding discussion of the relative performance of different Outlook techniques, and improving access to relevant outlook data (see “Data Resources” webpage at: http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/data.php). So in addition to the pan-arctic and regional outlook contributions, we invite any information or input to those topics as well.
JUNE REPORT (using May data). Deadline for contributions:
4 June. Publish reports online: 11 June.
JULY REPORT (using June data). Deadline for contributions: 2 July.
Publish reports online: 10 July.
AUGUST REPORT (using July data). Deadline for contributions: 2 August.
Publish reports online: 10 August.
SEPTEMBER REPORT (brief updates based on August data). Deadline for contributions: 4 September. Publish updates online: 10 September.
MINIMUM ANNOUNCEMENT. Based on the National Snow and Ice Data Center’s
(NSIDC) announcement for minimum.
POST-SEASON SYNOPSIS (exact dates dependent on when minimum is reached).
Deadline for contributions: early October. Publish post-season synopsis: late October.
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Consider and study the current situation at the WUWT Sea Ice reference page.
I’ll put up the poll in a few days for the June 4th deadline and WUWT readers can make the collective forecast then.
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>>it might also be tempting to “pull a Zwally” and declare the sea ice will be gone entirely. I don’t recommend either forecast.<<
Anthony, can you tell us why you think it's a bad idea to pull a Zwally?
wobble says:
May 23, 2012 at 10:14 am Why?”
Unless you have information that says otherwise, assuming regression toward the mean is a useful approach. So, in this case, picking the mean should work about as well as anything. But if you do have other information, please share!
“To avoid making wrong inferences, the possibility of regression toward the mean must be considered when designing experiments and interpreting experimental, survey, and other empirical data in the physical, life, behavioral and social sciences.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean
The “pull a Zwally” link above has trash at the end.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/05/12/the-arctic-ocean-could-be-nearly-ice-free-at-the-end-of-summer-by-2012/
Can we submit a negative sea ice forecast? 😉
Right now, the extent looks like another 2009, but the temperature above 80 °N seems like its going up fast. My bet is same as 2009 or slightly lower.
Mods, the link:”“pull a Zwally” and declare the sea ice will be gone entirely.” is not functioning
I think it is interesting that last year the average of the June forecasts was 4.7 million sq miles (msm). The July and August figures were both 4.6 msm. The actual value was 4.6 msm. So, maybe, just maybe, when it comes to June 11th 2012, and we get the first forecasts, we may have an idea of just how much ice there will be at minimum this year.
wobble says:
May 23, 2012 at 10:14 am
>>it might also be tempting to “pull a Zwally” and declare the sea ice will be gone entirely. I don’t recommend either forecast.<<
Anthony, can you tell us why you think it's a bad idea to pull a Zwally?
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Lol, I can't speak for Anthony, but I'm willing to bet a large amount of money that the arctic will not be ice free this year. Fact is, this melt season is going to be most interesting. I expect some different dynamics this year and the low should be more than last year.
I say the best bet is a forecast identical to last year’s minimum. 🙂
“The 2012 Outlook season will be a transition year to an expanded Outlook in 2013; this year, we would like to focus on expanding discussion of ice thickness, ……..”
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So, seeing as extent looks rather high, we should focus on another metric ?
Already ?
So where do I vote?
I think the sea ice will be cold. Did I win anything?
u.k.(us) says:
May 23, 2012 at 12:23 pm
More to the point, we should immediately switch to one you can’t just look at a picture and see. Far better that it be some derived value based on a host of modelled assumptions.
It will be somewhere in the 2006 2011 range. :0)
Why is it that the ice extent appears to be reducing much more quickly according to NSIDC than to the Danish Meteorological Institute.
Looking at Cryosphere Today’s comparison with 2007, it looks like it’s melting a lot faster this year!
I think the very high extents and cool SST anomalies in the Bering Sea will eventually play a role in slowing early season loss in the Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian Seas.
My money is on the 5.5 to 6 million sq km range.
The fact that it’s a Death Spiral means that every number greater than the 2007 minimum is wrong
The winds have not been favorable for the ice the last month and a half. If this keeps up we could see a new low minimum. Note that it has nothing to do with temperatures.
Based on the 2012 Requirements, that’s quite a few polls.
– what percentage of sea ice should we use as the lower limit for the estimates; 30%, 15%, all?
Looking at Dr Spencers site and the graph in the url I would say there is a way to go before we get to a recovery of summer ice extent to 1979 levels.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2012/03/could-arctic-sea-ice-decline-be-caused-by-the-arctic-oscillation/
I doubt 2012 will be as low as 2007 but lower than last year. Say 4.5
u.k.(us) says:
May 23, 2012 at 12:23 pm
“The 2012 Outlook season will be a transition year to an expanded Outlook in 2013; this year, we would like to focus on expanding discussion of ice thickness, ……..”
==========
So, seeing as extent looks rather high, we should focus on another metric ?
Already ?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
You know the drill….. either move the goal posts or just make up numbers….. or both. This year should be exceptional. I expect more of an increase in thickness than extent…. per se….. we’ll have to see where all the ice in the Bering Strait goes.
Obviously a floating number.
It seems odd that the area most different from “normal” is off the coast of Siberia. Could it be that the Russians are polluting the ocean causing the melt?
given last years min 4.6 and state of the ice…
take the under bet at even odds