Solar storm continues, geomagnetic storm and auroras expected

We have about three hours to go for the expected arrival time of the CME at 0625 UTC/1025 PM PST. Proton flux remains high as do other indicators. Additionally another C class solar flare just occured.

This bulletin just in from NOAA SWPC:

2012-03-08 03:18 UTC  Solar Radiation Storm Continues, Geomagnetic Storming Expected

The coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout event from 0024 UTC March 7 (7:24 p.m. EST March 6) is forecast to pass ACE early morning UTC on March 8 (start of day EST March 8). Geomagnetic storm periods reaching the G3 (Strong) level are likely as a result.  Additionally, the Solar Radiation Storm levels remain above the S3 (Strong) threshold at this time. Region 1429 remains potent and subsequent activity is certainly possible. Updates here as conditions warrant.

UPDATE: 825PM

I’ll know more once the CME particles pass the L1 point where the ACE satellite is station-keeping, of course that only gives me a few light seconds warning…but the CME particles are moving much slower than lightspeed, it will be at least a few minutes depending on how fast they are traveling.

Since POES is down for terrestrial computer maintenace, I’m watching the OVATION aurora forecast model right now, but it doesn’t get very accurate until particles pass the L1 point and ACE relays the data…if the solar wind is too strong, ACE saturates the sensor and the forecast gets barmy. http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/ Image below updates every 10 minutes.

This is also useful to watch, when it spikes, CME has hit L1

And Leif recommends this plot, MAG- SWEPAM plasma:

UPDATE: 2012-03-08 15:03 UTC  Geomagnetic Storm has Started, Solar Radiation Storm Continues

The coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout event from 0024 UTC March 7 (7:24 p.m. EST March 6) arrived at ACE at 1045 UTC today (5:45 a.m. EST March 8).  So far the orientation of the magnetic field has been opposite of what is needed to cause the strongest storming.  As the event progresses, that field will continue to change.  Based on overall strength, the predictions for periods reaching the G3 level look justified.  Additionally, the Solar Radiation Storm levels remain above the S3 (Strong) threshold at this time, with values rising momentarily with shock arrival.  Region 1429 remains potent and subsequent activity is certainly possible. Updates here as conditions warrant.