We have about three hours to go for the expected arrival time of the CME at 0625 UTC/1025 PM PST. Proton flux remains high as do other indicators. Additionally another C class solar flare just occured.
This bulletin just in from NOAA SWPC:
2012-03-08 03:18 UTC Solar Radiation Storm Continues, Geomagnetic Storming Expected
The coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout event from 0024 UTC March 7 (7:24 p.m. EST March 6) is forecast to pass ACE early morning UTC on March 8 (start of day EST March 8). Geomagnetic storm periods reaching the G3 (Strong) level are likely as a result. Additionally, the Solar Radiation Storm levels remain above the S3 (Strong) threshold at this time. Region 1429 remains potent and subsequent activity is certainly possible. Updates here as conditions warrant.
UPDATE: 825PM
I’ll know more once the CME particles pass the L1 point where the ACE satellite is station-keeping, of course that only gives me a few light seconds warning…but the CME particles are moving much slower than lightspeed, it will be at least a few minutes depending on how fast they are traveling.
Since POES is down for terrestrial computer maintenace, I’m watching the OVATION aurora forecast model right now, but it doesn’t get very accurate until particles pass the L1 point and ACE relays the data…if the solar wind is too strong, ACE saturates the sensor and the forecast gets barmy. http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/ Image below updates every 10 minutes.
This is also useful to watch, when it spikes, CME has hit L1
And Leif recommends this plot, MAG- SWEPAM plasma:
UPDATE: 2012-03-08 15:03 UTC Geomagnetic Storm has Started, Solar Radiation Storm Continues
The coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout event from 0024 UTC March 7 (7:24 p.m. EST March 6) arrived at ACE at 1045 UTC today (5:45 a.m. EST March 8). So far the orientation of the magnetic field has been opposite of what is needed to cause the strongest storming. As the event progresses, that field will continue to change. Based on overall strength, the predictions for periods reaching the G3 level look justified. Additionally, the Solar Radiation Storm levels remain above the S3 (Strong) threshold at this time, with values rising momentarily with shock arrival. Region 1429 remains potent and subsequent activity is certainly possible. Updates here as conditions warrant.
Interesting stuff Leif!
_Jim says:
March 8, 2012 at 6:45 am
Jim,
I used the figures from the wiki link below…
(consider the source)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_flare
It sounds like a measurement of the total flare energy to me.
I was also very generous with 60 KWH per day per household to allow for 100% electric homes, and for Al Gore being a power pig. 1800 KWH per month is a bit much. Dividing that amount by a more standard usage would give a multiplier to the 6 years I estimated. It was a ballpark figure to give perspective. I see estimates anywhere from 500 to 900 KWH per month per household… except Al Gore’s homes use over 20 times the average. (Everybody is equal, but some are more equal than others… as they say.)
Using a double or triple, providing I didn’t lose a decimal point in my coffee somewhere… the 6 years of electricity for all US households could extend out to 12 or 18 years for the wiki described flare. That is impressive.
The amount of energy that actually hits the earth directly is suggested above by Leif Svalgaard which he says is a much tamer 3 Terawatts that affects the earth. Your calculations may vary.
I wanted a visual image of how much energy the flare represents. 10^25 is hard to register.
@Mark;
Depending on how far west you are, it would be better to fly into Winnipeg, Regina, or Edmonton. (Clear skies in the forecasts would be the thing to look for.) They are quite a bit further north. (In fact, the southern border of the western provinces is almost 3° latitude north of North Bay or Sudbury!) Then head for the northern edge of the urban areas, so your back is to the city lights.
kbray in california says:
March 8, 2012 at 10:59 am
The amount of energy that actually hits the earth directly is suggested above by Leif Svalgaard which he says is a much tamer 3 Terawatts that affects the earth. Your calculations may vary.
I wanted a visual image of how much energy the flare represents. 10^25 is hard to register.
Only a VERY small part of the flare energy hits the Earth. For a visual image, consider this: we get solar energy measured by the Total Solar Irradiance, TSI. When a major flare occurs, TSI goes up VERY little. In fact barely measurable: http://www.nature.com/nphys/journal/v6/n9/full/nphys1741.html
http://sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/~hhudson/presentations/soho23.090924/tsi_flares_poster.pdf
“Even the peak flux of the biggest solar flares contributes to less than 0.1 % of the TSI. Only one X17 flare (October 28th, 2003) has been unambiguously detected in any of the TSI measurements made to date”
“The amount of energy that actually hits the earth is a much tamer 3 Terawatts. ”
A lightning bolt can peak at 1 Terawatt.
3 lightning bolts directly into the power lines could get your attention.
4 million miles per second ?
MSM… again, consider the source…
Lots gets distorted there.
They must be in a hurry.
4 million miles per hour fits reality better.
Lisa C says:
March 7, 2012 at 11:40 pm
Just had a pretty decent power surge here in Honolulu around 2130 HST. Power is still ON.
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It’s probably raining on Oahu :).
Leif Svalgaard says:
March 8, 2012 at 11:11 am
Leif, I know that very little of the flare actually hits earth. I was interested in expressing the total energy of the flare off the sun in earth terms.
And 3 lightning bolts is not much either.
Rats! Just a bit too far north to be seen in Oslo where my son and DiL live. Alas!
I missed my heretofore only chance to see auroa when I was in Alaska in 2004. We got word that they were glowing one night we were there, but we were camping in a valley and couldn’t see. It was the only disappointing thing about that trip.
kbray in california says:
March 8, 2012 at 11:44 am
I was interested in expressing the total energy of the flare off the sun in earth terms.
How about the combined energy released by 100,000,000 earthquakes all of Richter scale 8 ?
Leif Svalgaard says:
March 8, 2012 at 11:51 am
How about the combined energy released by 100,000,000 earthquakes all of Richter scale 8 ?
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The Earth has a surface area of 196,939,900 square miles.
That would be a Richter 8 every 2 square miles of the entire surface of the planet including ocean floor. Intersecting shock waves would amplify each other.
That would certainly send us back to the stone age… brutal.
Thank you.
The next CME is about to hit. It is also a North-pointing one, so no big magnetic storm from that either.
kbray in california says:
March 8, 2012 at 12:15 pm
That would certainly send us back to the stone age… brutal.
Except that is for the flare as a whole. The energy is spread over about a 1/10 of the solar system, so the energy per square mile is VERY, VERY, VERY small.
Leif,
“rødgrød med fløde”
May you always be the real thing.
Best regards.
kbray in california says:
March 8, 2012 at 12:47 pm
Leif, “rødgrød med fløde”
May you always be the real thing.
I try 🙂
As ACE is down… http://umtof.umd.edu/pm/
Neutrons dropping off. Sure, the sun has no effect.
http://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/
Leif, don’t these plasma masses tumble or rotate as they travel through space? How can they be deemed “north-pointing” or “south-pointing”?
Another question (anyone knowledgeable about the physics):
The neutron monitors at the south pole show a spike in GCRs mid-day yesterday (Wednesday) prior to a precipitous drop-off. None of the other monitors show this spike.
http://www.bartol.udel.edu/~pyle/RTPlots.html
Generally, I understand the “shielding” of the earth’s atmosphere from solar radiation. Is there an easy way to understand the spike?
Bill Parsons says:
March 8, 2012 at 3:44 pm
Leif, don’t these plasma masses tumble or rotate as they travel through space? How can they be deemed “north-pointing” or “south-pointing”?
They do not tumble as they have their magnetic field lines still rooted in the Sun. North is the direction generally pointing perpendicular to the Earth’s orbit [more precisely to the plane that contains the Earth’s magnetic equator] to the Pole Star, south is the other way. If the solar wind magnetic field points in a northerly direction, we say it is ‘northwards’. The opposite for south.
Bill Parsons says:
March 8, 2012 at 3:44 pm
Leif, don’t these plasma masses tumble or rotate as they travel through space? How can they be deemed “north-pointing” or “south-pointing”?
They do not tumble as they have their magnetic field lines still rooted in the Sun [on their side]. A cut through the CME ‘flux rope’ may look something like this cartoon: http://www.leif.org/research/Sun-CME-Earth.png When the cloud reaches the Earth there will be a front anda back side with oppositely pointing fields. So since we have have northward fields for a while and the storm fizzled out because of that, we should now get the back side field which is southwards, so a magnetic storm may ensue.
Max Hugoson says:
March 8, 2012 at 6:50 am
Mike:
“I either read somewhere or had a hallucination that during these kinds of events, residents of orbiting space craft actually see flashes of light in their closed eyes as the hydrogen nuclei scintillate inside of the eyeball.”
Actually, the shell of the spaceship is pretty good shielding from the high energy protons. BUT, not against normal COSMIC rays. THEY can cause the flashes, at about any time..all the time. Typical exposure is about 10 to 100 mR per day, indicating that long term (2 to 3 year) stays will need more shielding for radiation health physics reasons! (Mars mission?)
I can’t imagine being violated by high energy protons, can’t be good for you DNA either.
Max, Now I’m really curious, because methinks a 100+Mev proton might have a chance to penetrate the shell of said spacecraft, I’m sure you’re correct vis a vis cosmic rays
Leif,
Thanks for your explanation regarding the plasma field’s polarity. Regarding my second question…
Was this what caused the neutron monitor spike in Antarctica mid-day yesterday (7th)?
Bill Parsons says:
March 8, 2012 at 8:53 pm
Was this what caused the neutron monitor spike in Antarctica mid-day yesterday (7th)?
No. Several stations had a spike, and some not. Space is a messy place. The solar wind is gusty and variable from place to place.
Here is a good overview of CMEs
http://www.issi.unibe.ch/workshops/CME/publication/HudBurBou/SSSI_21-02.pdf
M-class Xray event early this morning
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/Xray.gif