About the same time I had opened my browser window a week ago for this post on Bertrand Russell’s Liberal Decalogue from 1951, I had opened a page at The Inconvenient Truth by Guy McCardle on quotes that represent the very best aspects of skepticsim. It has taken me this long to get back to it.
This one in particular, strikes me as highly prescient:
A thing is not proved just because no one has ever questioned it. What has never been gone into impartially has never been properly gone into. Hence skepticism is the first step toward truth. It must be applied generally, because it is the touchstone. – Denis Diderot
The short version takeaway is:
Skepticism is the first step toward truth –Denis Diderot
Given what we’ve seen in professional climate circles these past two weeks, I think that makes a great motto. Here’s the rest.
Since these are public domain quotes from multiple people, I’ve reproduced it in entirety here. Please give props to Guy McCardle at The Inconvenient Truth for collecting them.
Critical Thinking
Skepticism is the first step toward truth. –Denis Diderot
The difficulty lies not so much in developing new ideas as in escaping from old ones. – John Maynard Keynes
He that will not reason is a bigot; he that cannot reason is a fool; he that dares not reason is a slave. –William Drummond
The important thing is not to stop questioning. Curiosity has its own reason for existing. — Albert Einstein
Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn’t go away. –Philip K. Dick
A thing is not proved just because no one has ever questioned it. What has never been gone into impartially has never been properly gone into. Hence skepticism is the first step toward truth. It must be applied generally, because it is the touchstone. – Denis Diderot
Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity. – Martin Luther King Jr
The first principle is that you must not fool yourself – and you are the easiest person to fool. –Richard Feynman
A scientist seeks the truth, wherever that may lead. A believer already knows the truth, and cannot be swayed no matter how compelling the evidence. – Author Unknown
But what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away. – McDonald/Loggins
Ridicule may lawfully be employed where reason has no hope of success . –Ed Brayton
If fifty million people say a foolish thing, it is still a foolish thing. –Anatole France
That is the essence of science: ask an impertinent question, and you are on the way to a pertinent answer. – Jacob Bronowski
Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd. – Voltaire
It is impossible to reason someone out of something that he did not reason himself into in the first place. – Jonathon Swift
Doubt grows with knowledge. – Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
Most people would die sooner than think; in fact, they do so. – Bertrand Russell
I do not feel obliged to believe that the same God who has endowed us with sense, reason, and intellect has intended us to forgo their use. – Galileo Galilei
You can fool too many of the people too much of the time. – James Thurber
That which can be destroyed by the truth, should be. –P. C. Hodgell
It is better to ask some of the questions than to know all the answers. –James Thurber
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts. –Bertrand Russell
The curse of man, and cause of nearly all of his woes, is his stupendous capacity for believing the incredible. –H. L. Mencken
The hard but just rule is that if the ideas don’t work, you must throw them away. Don’t waste any neurons on what doesn’t work. Devote those neurons to new ideas that better explain the data. Valid criticism is doing you a favor. – Carl Sagan
For, to speak truly, that superstition has extended itself through all nations, and has oppressed the intellectual energies of all men, and has betrayed them into endless imbecilities. –Cicero (106 BC – 43 BC)
Learning without thinking is useless. Thinking without learning is dangerous. –Confucius
What is wanted is not the will to believe, but the wish to find out, which is the exact opposite. – Bertrand Russell
Broad-minded is just another way of saying a fellow’s too lazy to form an opinion. –Will Rogers
Not to be absolutely certain is, I think, one of the essential things in rationality. – Bertrand Russell
For it is the natural tendency of the ignorant to believe what is not true. In order to overcome that tendency it is not sufficient to exhibit the true;it is also necessary to expose and denounce the false. –H. L. Mencken
Evidence
A habit of basing convictions upon evidence, and giving to them only that degree of credibility which the evidence warrants, would, if it became general, cure the world from most of the ills from which it is suffering. –Bertrand Russell
For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. – Carl Sagan
In science, ‘fact’ can only mean ‘confirmed to such a degree that it would be perverse to withhold provisional assent.’ I suppose that apples might start to rise tomorrow, but the possibility does not merit equal time in physics classrooms. –Stephen Jay Gould
That which can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence . –Christopher Hitchens
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored. –Aldous Huxley
When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir? – John Maynard Keynes
It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong. –John Maynard Keynes
The correct scientific response to something that is not understood must always be to look harder for the explanation, not give up and assume a supernatural cause. – David Attenborough
It is wrong always, everywhere and for everyone to believe anything upon insufficient evidence. –W.K. Clifford
It is undesirable to believe a proposition when there is no ground whatsoever for supposing it is true. –Bertrand Russell
Not until the empirical results are exhausted need we pass on to the dreamy realms of speculation . –Edwin Hubble
If we take in our hand any volume; of divinity or school metaphysics, for instance; let us ask, Does it contain any abstract reasoning concerning quantity or number? No. Does it contain any experimental reasoning concerning matter of fact and existence? No. Commit it then to the flames: For it can contain nothing but sophistry and illusion. – David Hume
A wise man proportions his belief to the evidence. – David Hume
No testimony is sufficient to establish a miracle, unless the testimony be of such a kind that its falsehood would be more miraculous than the fact which it endeavours to establish. –David Hume
Errors using inadequate data are much less than those using no data at all. – Charles Babbage
The general root of superstition is that men observe when things hit, and not when they miss, and commit to memory the one, and pass over the other. –Francis Bacon
The enemy of knowledge and science is irrationalism, not religion. – Stephen Jay Gould
To treat your facts with imagination is one thing, but to imagine your facts is another. – John Burroughs
When I see a bird that walks like a duck and swims like a duck and quacks like a duck, I call that bird a duck. –James Whitcomb Riley
The better a man knows the truth, the less he is likely to condemn. – Sebastian Castellio
The sciences do not try to explain, they hardly even try to interpret, they mainly make models. By a model is meant a mathematical construct which, with the addition of certain verbal interpretations, describes observed phenomena. The justification of such a mathematical construct is solely and precisely that it is expected to work. –John von Neumann
Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones. – Bertrand Russell
On Sciences
Science is organized knowledge. – Herbert Spencer
I maintain there is much more wonder in science than in pseudoscience. And in addition, to whatever measure this term has any meaning, science has the additional virtue, and it is not an inconsiderable one, of being true. – Carl Sagan
Truth in science can best be defined as the working hypothesis best suited to open the way to the next better one. – Konrad Lorenz
[Science is] a series of judgements, revised without ceasing. –Pierre Emile Duclaux
Science is nothing but trained and organised common sense differing from the latter only as a veteran may differ from a raw recruit; and its methods differ from those of common sense only as far as the guardsman’s cut and thrust differ from the manner in which a savage wields his club. –Thomas Henry Huxley
True science teaches, above all, to doubt and to be ignorant. –Miguel de Unamuno
[Science is] the desire to know causes. –William Hazlitt
[Science is] the knowledge of consequences, and dependence of one fact upon another. –Thomas Hobbes
It is a good morning exercise for a research scientist to discard a pet hypothesis every day before breakfast. It keeps him young. –Konrad Lorenz
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the latter ignorance. – Hippocrates
The great tragedy of science – the slaying of a beautiful hypothesis by an ugly fact. –Thomas Henry Huxley
Science is the disinterested search for the objective truth about the material world. – Richard Dawkins
The scientist is not a person who gives the right answers, he is one who asks the right questions. –Claude Levi-Strauss
Education is when you read the fine print. Experience is what you get if you don’t. – Pete Seeger
Science can only ascertain what is, but not what should be, and outside of its domain value judgments of all kinds remain necessary. –Albert Einstein
The most beautiful thing we can experience is the mysterious. It is the source of all true art and all science. He to whom this emotion is a stranger, who can no longer pause to wonder and stand rapt in awe, is as good as dead: his eyes are closed. –Albert Einstein
Science is the great antidote to the poison of enthusiasm and superstition. –Adam Smith
The compass that today guides this timeless endeavor is scientific inquiry. It is science that gazes outward, providing the grand questions that challenge us to journey farther and farther from home. But it is also science that peers inward, exploring previously inaccessible areas of the Earth, and asking the practical questions that help us to make Earth safer, protect our citizens, and expand our economy. –NASA Roadmap “Exploring our Planet for the Benefit of Society”, 2005
Science is the only way of knowing – everything else is superstition. –Robert Park
Perfect as the wing of a bird may be, it will never enable the bird to fly if unsupported by the air. Facts are the air of science. Without them a man of science can never rise. –Ivan Pavlov
Thought-provocation
So you’re offended. So fucking what? – Stephen Fry (talking about religious objections to free speech)
Never argue with an idiot. The best outcome you can hope for is that you won an argument with an idiot. –Anonymous
I would rather have a mind opened by wonder than one closed by belief . –Gerry Spence
In the final tolling it often turns out that the facts are more comforting than the fantasy. – Carl Sagan
Every man is guilty of all the good he didn’t do. – Voltaire
Give to us clear vision that we may know where to stand and what to stand for – because unless we stand for something, we shall fall for anything. – Peter Marshall
Whoever is still seeking for miracles so that he may believe is himself a wonder, who does not believe while the world around him does . –Saint Augustine
If you don’t think too good, don’t think too much. –Yogi Berra
Sit down before fact as a little child, be prepared to give up every preconceived notion, follow humbly wherever and whatever abysses nature leads, or you will learn nothing. –Thomas Henry Huxley
Faith is believing what you know ain’t so. – Mark Twain
The only good that I can see in the demonstration of the truth of “Spiritualism” is to furnish an additional argument against suicide. Better live a crossing-sweeper than die and be made to talk twaddle by a “medium” hired at a guinea a séance. – Aldous Huxley
The true mystery of the world is the visible, not the invisible. – Oscar Wilde
When you have no basis of argument, abuse the plaintiff . –Cicero (106 BC – 43 BC)
The opposite of the religious fanatic is not the fanatical atheist but the gentle cynic who cares not whether there is a god or not. – Eric Hoffer
There’s a sucker born every minute. – Joseph Bessimer (not Phineas T. Barnum)
Heathen, n: A benighted creature who has the folly to worship something that he can see and feel. –Ambrose Bierce
It is a far, far better thing to have a firm anchor in nonsense than to put out on the troubled seas of thought. –John Kenneth Galbraith
It is harder to conceal ignorance than to acquire knowledge. – Arnold Glasgow
Never give in – never, never, never, never, in nothing great or small, large or petty, never give in except to convictions of honour and good sense. Never yield to force; never yield to the apparently overwhelming might of the enemy. –Winston Churchill
Our grand business is not to see what lies dimly at a distance, but to do what lies clearly at hand. –Thomas Carlyle
There is nothing worse than aggressive stupidity . –Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
Bigotry dwarfs the soul by shutting out the truth. –Edwin Hubbell Chapin
You have enemies? Good. That means you’ve stood up for something, sometime in your life. –Winston Churchill
There is nothing more frightful than ignorance in action. –Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
“Faith” is a fine invention When Gentlemen can see - But Microscopes are prudent In an Emergency. –Emily Dickinson
I think that in the discussion of natural problems we ought to begin not with the Scriptures but with experiments and demonstrations. –Galileo Galilei
This is my simple religion. There is no need for temples; no need for complicated philosophy. Our own brain, our own heart is our temple; the philosophy is kindness. –Dalai Lama
A man ceases to be a beginner in any given science and becomes a master in that science when he has learned that he is going to be a beginner all his life. – Robin G. Collingwood
Other
Heaven wheels above you displaying to you her eternal glories and still your eyes are on the ground. – Dante Alighieri
We must not forget that when radium was discovered no one knew that it would prove useful in hospitals. The work was one of pure science. And this is a proof that scientific work must not be considered from the point of view of the direct usefulness of it. It must be done for itself, for the beauty of science, and then there is always the chance that a scientific discovery may become like the radium a benefit for humanity. –Marie Curie
You never see animals going through the absurd and often horrible fooleries of magic and religions. Only man behaves with such gratuitous folly. It is the price he has to pay for being intelligent but not, as yet, intelligent enough. –Aldous Huxley
Some people are like Slinkies. Not really good for anything but they bring a smile to your face when pushed down the stairs. –Anonymous
Man masters nature not by force but by understanding. This is why science has succeeded where magic failed: because it has looked for no spell to cast over nature. –Jacob Bronowski
Truth exists. Only lies are invented. –Georges Braque
I am among those who think that science has great beauty. A scientist in his laboratory is not only a technician: he is also a child placed before natural phenomena which impress him like a fairy tale. Marie Curie
Eternal vigilance is the price of freedom. No, not Thomas Jefferson – it was John Philpot Curran
The mob has no ruler more potent than superstition . –Quintus Curtius Rufus
There is no nonsense so gross that society will not, at some time, make a doctrine of it and defend it with every weapon of communal stupidity. – Robertson Davies
Every great advance in science has issued from a new audacity of imagination. –John Dewey
Truth is so rare that it is delightful to tell it. –Emily Dickinson
Men talk of heaven, – there is no heaven but here; Men talk of hell, – there is no hell but here; Men of hereafters talk, and future lives, - O love, there is no other life – but here. – Omar Khayyám
Man will never be free until the last king is strangled with the entrails of the last priest. –Denis Diderot
I would like to be remembered as a person who made trouble where trouble was needed. – Studs Terkel
I have always observed that when people are interrupted in the performance of some egregious stupidity their feelings are hurt. – Anthony Trollope
We are all born ignorant, but we must work hard to remain stupid. – Benjamin Franklin
Four stages of acceptance: i) this is worthless nonsense, ii) this is an interesting, but perverse, point of view, iii) this is true, but quite unimportant, iv) I always said so. –J.B.S. Haldane
A man should never put on his best trousers when he goes out to battle for freedom and truth. – Henrik Ibsen
I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it. –Thomas Jefferson
The mind of the bigot is like the pupil of the eye; the more light you pour upon it, the more it will contract. –Oliver Wendell Holmes
Ridicule is the only weapon which can be used against unintelligible positions. – Thomas Jefferson
Morality & Ethics
Moral certainty is always a sign of cultural inferiority. The more uncivilized the man, the surer he is that he knows precisely what is right and what is wrong. All human progress, even in morals, has been the work of men who have doubted the current moral values, not of men who have whooped them up and tried to enforce them. The truly civilized man is always skeptical and tolerant. –H. L. Mencken
Do not be too moral. You may cheat yourself out of much life, so aim above morality. Be not simply good; be good for something. –Henry David Thoreau
The darkest places in hell are reserved for those who maintain their neutrality in times of moral crisis. – Dante Alighieri
There are causes worth dying for but none worth killing for. – Albert Camus
The time is always right to do what is right. – Martin Luther King Jr
In the name of noble purposes men have committed unspeakable acts of cruelty against one another. – J. William Fullbright
Prejudice is opinion without judgment . –Voltaire
You measure a democracy by the freedom it gives its dissidents, not the freedom it gives its assimilated conformists. –Abbie Hoffman
Give to every other human being every right that you claim for yourself. – Robert Ingersoll
There is nothing more unequal, than the equal treatment of unequal people. –Thomas Jefferson
Science has proof without any certainty. Creationists have certainty without any proof. – Ashley Montague
In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock. –Thomas Jefferson
Think for yourselves and let others enjoy the privilege to do so too . –Voltaire
All it takes for evil to prosper is for good men to do nothing. – Edmund Burke
I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it. – Evelyn Beatrice Hall, writing in a biography of Voltaire
Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities . –Voltaire
Indifference to evil is more insidious than evil itself. It is a silent justification affording evil acceptability in society. –Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
Prejudices are what fools use for reason . –Voltaire
We should therefore claim, in the name of tolerance, the right not to tolerate the intolerant. –Karl Popper
Alternative Medicine
Penicillin cures pneumonia even if you’re in a coma, but alternative medicine only seems to work when you are awake. – R. Barker Bausell
I suffered from chronic hypochondria for years. Eventually I went to a naturopath and was cured with a course of broad-spectrum placebos . –M. Cullen
There must be some limit to the thing. It cannot go on to infinity. (Es muss ein Ende geben, es kann nicht bis ins Unendliche weitergehen). – Samuel Hahnemann (to Dr Schreter, Sept 13th 1829, Writing about Homeopathic Dilutions)
The orthodox doctor treats what you have, and the alternative practitioner says you have what she treats. – Rose Shapiro
Chuck says:
February 25, 2012 at 8:28 am
”I have seen much “alternative” medicine work, and work completely, where everything else has failed, and failed badly, for years.”
To Lucy and others advocating “alternative” medicine therapies: Alternative medicine is called “alternative” because no one knows if or how it works.
Wrong. To claim that ‘no one knows if or how xyz works’ he must have knowledge and a proof that no one know. But this is impossible. It may be that the claimer has no knowledge how xyz works, but that is a personal problem. An alternative is in general one or one of more than one different ways to go, as the claimed one way. This claim is not a valid scientific claim, because in fact other alternatives exist or can exist. It is a fallacy called Argumentum ad verecundiam (Appeal to authority). The Appeal to Authority uses admiration of a famous lobby to try and win support for an assertion.
You need to use science to determine exactly how it works.
Maybe wrong again. One of the best methods of science is empery. If you empirical find out that a special (poison) herb (Fumaria officinalis) cleans the skin, you do not need to use chemical science do determine exactly how it works. It is an option but not a prerequisite. It works well without the knowledge how it works.
I’m not dismissing alternative medicine out of hand, but if you can’t show the mechanism by which a treatment works, then you really don’t know anything. .
This is not only wrong, this is a claim called absolutism claim knowing the other have no knowledge in general. Not on his apartment number, not on his name, no knowledge where the bathroom is, etc. Claimer of this kind of proud never have explained how or if or since when they exist prior to their birth using science. If they have come out of nothing this seems not to be a science based argument. If they have existed some years prior their birth it seems that they can give proof of it. And if they ‘work’ but can’t show the mechanism by which they work it seems to me that they really don’t know anything about their existence.
If you can scientifically demonstrate how an alternative technique works, then it will become part of the scientific medical knowledge base.
If you can scientifically demonstrate, how your existence works prior, while and after you are not triggered to breath, then I think your understanding of science is knowledge based.
Alternative medicine is not science
Sayings without valid arguments meet not the science of logic.
V.
Leon M Lederman
“If the Universe is the answer, what is the question?”
“· .. what I really would enjoy is teaching physics to young liberal arts students because they are skeptical. They’re not a captive audience. My goal would be to convince them that science is part of a liberal arts education.”
For any who’ve never read him: http://history.fnal.gov/lederman_quotes.html
That which can be destroyed by the truth, should be. –P. C. Hodgell
Not necessarily. For example, civilization may be built upon myth, necessary untruths. If the untruths are eliminated, there is no guarantee the civilization built upon them will persist.
What is ‘truth’? Who can with any certainty state what is ‘truth’? The best we can do is make a reasonable argument and call it truth. That is destinguishable from actual Truth, which may not be knowable, at least not yet. The ‘truth’ of one day is replaced by a better, more useful ‘truth’ another.
All ‘truths’ depend on making a set of assumptions. Are these assumptions questioned? Some of these may be unknowable, and yet useful. Some assumptions may be essential for certain purposes even if they are wrong.
Here is an example of a dilemma, there is no right or wrong answer. There is no example of a civilization persisting in the world at any time in history in which homosexual marriage was accepted. The major religions do not support such marriages. That constitutes a historical and cultural assumption such marriages are wrong. Is this assumption a founding principle of civilization? Can civilization persist if the assumption is argued away by judicial logic?
Similarly, is the notion of rights being given by God necessary to support free civilization? Even if there is no God, are rights innate, or are they given to us by the State? Or, what about a person’s willingness to die for a higher cause? That behavior may be driven by arguably false beliefs, and yet, they may be essential for the survival of civilization. The fear over the existence of a divine watcher who will punish the wicked may be an essential lie.
Smart people are capable of making solid arguments to support almost any position. Judicial rulings seem to be increasingly self-consistent logic run amok, disconnected from reality. Instead of attacking founding assumptions of civilization based on judicial reasoning, perhaps legal opinion should bend to benchmarks of civilization that have stood the test of time. Otherwise, there is no limit to where their legal arguments may take us.
Beware seeking perfect Truth, at least for everyone. Try it for yourself first and see how it works out before trying to make everyone else see your truth. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be judgmental. In fact, judging is a very important task. It is the basis of evolution, whether you choose to believe in that or not.
My point here is truth may not be for everyone. Some lies may be necessary for other purposes. In other words, some lies may be needed for many, if not most people. We need to be careful about idealism. It’s another reason why we should not impose top-down compliance with laws or beliefs. We don’t really know what the consequences are when we change how people interact. If one country fails, that may be unfortunate (e.g. Greece), but civilizaiton will go on. If we force everyone behave the same and believe the same things, and the whole world goes down, it would be an utter catastrophe.
DirkH says:
February 25, 2012 at 10:58 am
“c) Energy leaves only to space.
By controlling c) they control the temperature of the model.”
And thanks to Babsy to mention the missing heat, that fits perfectly to how the CO2AGW vs. 1.0 models failed. It left to space – but in the pre-2000 runs of the GCMs it wasn’t allowed to so the heat content of Sim-Earth went up faster than it really did, and, I don’t know, did nobody tell Kevin? Is he still looking for it?
They should really communicate that to the inmates.
By that logic, aspirin should have been excluded from medicine until the 70s (or whenever it was that its mechanism was discovered).
Hoser says:
February 25, 2012 at 12:04 pm
Ok, so I sell your “civilization” a million calculators that have 2+2= 5 on some days, and on other days it is 7 and on other days it is the square root of pi…
And you would buy those calculators because….??
Sheesh.
I hope you’re not running for president of your “civilization”. (Better yet, define for me a civilization that would last in a highly complex technical world with calculators like that–and that’s just a minor example of letting myth trump truth.)
I suppose you could always pine away for the Dark Ages where myth held sway.
A physicist says:
February 25, 2012 at 10:53 am
No, A… that’s not it at all. It is:
“First, Tell the Truth”.
You sound like it’s a race to come up with the “truth” when in fact lots of what you say isn’t necessarily so. Simple as that. First, tell the truth. A wonderful first axiom. Unless you do, nothing else matters–truth isn’t relative.
Now, we could drag Jones, Mann, Gore and a whole lot of other AGW Control Freaks into this little discussion, but they aren’t very good examples of the first and foremost axiom, are they?
No, they aren’t.
The truth shall make you freek.
[snip – growing tired of this – stop trying to hijack threads for your own purposes – Anthony]
dcfl51 says:
February 25, 2012 at 11:20 am
My aplologies. I was being obscenely sarcastic and I should have noted that for civilization. As for the trolls, well, they can all rot…
Exp,
Turning to your comment at 9:53 am, “What experiment can be proposed and done…” to see whether climate sensitivity > 3 degC, it is generally accepted that the no-feedbacks climate sensitivity is about 1 degC. ( IPCC says 1.2 degC.) Sensitivity over 3 degC requires strong positive water vapour feedbacks. Experiments have already been going on for years, measuring changes in atmospheric humidity, temperature, outgoing radiation, sea surface temperature, etc in order to try to quantify the feedbacks. This is ongoing work, but all I can say is that so far the results are pretty disappointing for your side of the argument.
We can also hindcast a high sensitivity model and see how it compares to actual temperatures over the last 150 years. If you visit this site regularly you will know that temperatures should have already risen much higher than they actually have, according to the hindcasts.
Also, Mother Nature has been conducting an experiment for the last 4.5 billion years. We have masses of data showing that the earth has had significantly higher CO2 levels and temperatures in the past. If the climate were as sensitive to CO2 as the models assume then the oceans would have boiled away in the past and we wouldn’t be sitting here talking about it. The climate didn’t start in 1970, you know !
You have mentioned that 30 years of non-rising temperatures would make you change your mind. Exp, the debate is not about climate change – it is about catastrophic man-made climate change. To say that you want evidence that the climate is not changing before you will believe that climate change is not primarily anthropogenic is illogical. Unfortunately, warmists do tend to promote the idea that any evidence of climate change is, ipso facto, evidence of catastrophic man-made climate change. I don’t know whether this is through a lack of ability to think logically or whether it is because they know their case is so weak.
Regarding Alternative vs Conventional Medicine, I believe the following core principles of Conventional Medicine do show it to be far superior:
1)Treat the symptom, not the cause.
2) For every symptom or ailment, there’s a drug, or set of drugs.
3) Never mind preventive medicine like proper diet, exercise, and taking vitamins. Simply wait ’til you’re sick, then see #2.
4) Even if you aren’t sick yet, there are drugs for you to take to help keep you from getting sick.
5) Drug manufacturers do their own rigorous studies. They do this out of the goodness of their hearts, and for science, not the money.
6) If drugs fail, there’s always surgery.
/sarc
Anthony, are all posts that differ from your views intrinsically “tiresome”? Like this one, which (for me) is indeed “A Relevant Quote on Skepticism” …
On any forum — whether skeptic-leaning or consensus-leaning — censorship of the strongest criticisms can serve no good purpose … for the common-sense reason that the strongest skepticism and the strongest science recognize one another not as enemies, but rather as the most natural of allies.
The too-common practices of censorship, personal abuse, cherry-picking, astro-turfing, and legal bluster all seek to obstruct the natural union of strong skepticism with strong science … yet over the long run, they are entirely helpless to prevent it.
In this regard, Anthony, please let me commend to your attention and consideration the core USMC/Army principle that “All force activity is wrapped in a blanket of truth.”
The practices of censorship, personal abuse, cherry-picking, astro-turfing, and legal bluster amount to “loopholes in the blanket of truth”, and that is the simple reason why these practices must be foresworn.
REPLY: Read my policy page. You are in my home on the Internet, and quite frankly I should have shown you the door long ago for your constant and condescending lecturing. Not only are you tiring me, but all the other guests as well. And that bit about military truth? You can’t even put your own name to your words while lecturing us about honor. So please, stop embarrassing yourself with pronouncements about honor and truth when your deeds say otherwise. The issue here is off-topic threadjacking, something I snipped you for and admonished you for earlier. It has become your signature here and I’m tired of it. I have only so much tolerance.
I remind you of your own words, written on 2012/01/27 at 1:34 pm
“Should you ever observe that I (or for that matter any WUWT poster) am mainly criticizing persons, rather than opinions, then it would be fully appropriate to require that personal criticism to appear under my own name, or not at all.”
So in this case, you are criticizing me, directly. You’ve had 408 posts here at WUWT, most of them like the one above. Unless you want to adhere to your own stated principles, and put your name to your direct criticisms of me, please see the door at the end of the hallway that says “EXIT” over it. – Anthony
‘a physicist’:
What branch of the military did you serve in?
I’m a busy guy, Exp. I’m willing to be convinced about AGW. I’m not willing to be hectored. Computer models may help scientists DISCOVER facts, but by definition they can’t PRODUCE facts. The burden of proof is on your side. You want more people to believe? Then note: every time a ‘climate scientist’ or fellow-traveller uses the word ‘denier’, that person asserts that the science isn’t good enough, and that ad hominem will have to do.
A physicist says:
February 25, 2012 at 1:31 pm
“The practices of censorship, personal abuse, cherry-picking, astro-turfing, and legal bluster amount to “loopholes in the blanket of truth”, and that is the simple reason why these practices must be foresworn.”
How about memetic carpetbombing.
dcfl51,
Don’t disaree with too much you have said.
It’s not about proving catastrophic climate change – suspect the best we will ever be able to do is estimate the chances and the risks – until its too late.
And, if it’s not man-made, what is it?
Despite claims to the contrary here, you are putting forward an hypothesis and it’s not the “null hypothesis” that you need to prove, it’s the “something else other than man hypothesis”. If you think there’s big holes in the man-made hypothesis, seems like there’s nothing but air comprising the other.
“If the climate were as sensitive to CO2 as the models assume then the oceans would have boiled away in the past”
Ah, I call BS on that one.
(I originally posted this on Judith Curry’s blog here)
“a physicist”:
It is your choice to pursue The Big Lie technique as your primary method of communication.
However, a moderator removing your non-topical, dishonest, defamatory statements from the comments section of a blog is no more “censorship” than removing penis enlargement spam from the comments section would be.
And the penis enlargement spammer has the virtue of not trying to wrap its fantasy claims in the mantle of honor and integrity of the armed forces.
Your behavior makes you a less appealing ally than a penis enlargement spammer would be. Perhaps you should reflect on that, “a physicist”.
Chuck said @ur momisugly February 25, 2012 at 8:28 am
What twaddle! Allicin for example, (a constituent of garlic and onions) is a well-known anti-bacterial and anti-fungal agent. To support your contention, you need to explain why it does not have these properties while part of the garlic or onion plant, but magically does have these properties when removed and placed in a container for sale at your local pharmacy. Ditto for salicylic acid in apples, alantoin in comfrey, thymol in thyme.
I could give many more examples. Suffice it to say there are many pharmaceuticals in my garden and they are a lot less expensive than purchasing them from the pharmacy.
[snip]
Some of the Git’s favourite quotes:
The more we learn about the world, and the deeper our learning, the more conscious, specific, and articulate will be our knowledge of what we do not know, our knowledge of our ignorance — the fact that our knowledge can be only finite, while our ignorance must be infinite. — Sir Karl Popper
Unless the mind is capable of coming into contact with reality, then all thought is equally worthy and equally worthless. It doesn’t matter what you believe as long as you’re sincere. No normal person honestly believes that. For one thing it’s unhealthy. If you split your mind into two halves, a discursive half and a practical half, and give them radically incompatible things to believe the outcome is going to be stress and inner conflict. It’s also illogical. Is the thought that no thoughts are true, itself true? Is the statement that no statement is unbiased, itself unbiased? If we answer Yes, we contradict ourselves. For if all thoughts are untrue, then this thought is untrue. If all statements are biased, then this statement is biased. There’s no question therefore of a total scepticism about human thought because it can only be formulated by making a tacit exception in favour of the thought we are thinking at the moment.
Authority may be a hint as to what the truth is, but is not the source of information. As long as it’s possible, we should disregard authority whenever the observations disagree with it. — Richard P. Feynman
The masses have never thirsted after truth. They turn aside from evidence that is not to their taste, preferring to deify error, if error seduces them. Whoever can supply them with illusions is easily their master; whoever attempts to destroy their illusions is always their victim. — Gustave Le Bon
Men will always be mad and those who think they can cure them are the maddest of all. — Voltaire
Exp says:
February 25, 2012 at 9:53 am
One almost sensible go so far:
Your proposal amounts to what I think the position of most “sceptics” really is: I’ll believe it when I see it: I need to see signs of catastrophic warming.
REPLY
Ignorance doesn’t get you anywhere. Why not look at the real problems pro CAGW face and the real reason supporting the sceptics.
http://mises.org/daily/5892/The-Skeptics-Case#.T0eUhlmYO74.email
Unless you think CAGW will just come out of thin air instantly, there needs to be signs it is already building up to be a problem. Changes in water vapor and global temperatures at the surface, troposphere and stratosphere say no. It is not to do with we’ll believe it when we see it, it has to have observations that the planet can demonstrate this will happen in future. Anything else is just based on faith and therefore religion/agenda, not science. The rate of warming and water vapor needs to double/triple from the 1980’s and 1990’s values to support any possible CAGW. Yet we have been at a stable rate now for over a decade, so this changes to a rate triple/quadruple. This rate needs to get bigger the longer global temperatures remain stable.
One big problem here is more water vapor, more lower based clouds = negative feedback. With cloud albedo increasing over recent years it is no wonder we are not warming. This also therefore provides scientific evidence that the sceptics view on water vapor is correct and the pro CAGW view false. (see above link too regarding this)
“History is a set of lies agreed upon.” Napoleon Bonaparte
It seems that this may apply to many aspects of modern culture, possibly even aspects of modern science.
“Even if there is only one possible unified theory, it is just
a set of rules and equations. What is it that breathes fire into
the equations and makes a universe for them to describe?”
Stephen Hawking
The Pompous Git says:
February 25, 2012 at 2:10 pm
What twaddle! Allicin for example, (a constituent of garlic and onions) is a well-known anti-bacterial and anti-fungal agent. To support your contention, you need to explain why it does not have these properties while part of the garlic or onion plant, but magically does have these properties when removed and placed in a container for sale at your local pharmacy. Ditto for salicylic acid in apples, alantoin in comfrey, thymol in thyme.
I could give many more examples. Suffice it to say there are many pharmaceuticals in my garden and they are a lot less expensive than purchasing them from the pharmacy.
What has been found, for example with aspirin, is that the plant also contains something which prevents the effects of upset stomach which appears among those who regularly take aspirin, say for blood thinning. One has to bear in mind that pharmaceutical companies need to ‘isolate’ or somehow change the natural combination to have a product to sell.
And they are very busy trying to destroy the herbal remedy market, while pilfering the knowledge of them…, as they’re now attacking the vitamin supplement market. Far as I recall, they began by getting comfrey banned from general sale – by force feeding it in huge amounts to rats or something and then claiming it damaged the liver.
We could do with a pithy saying to encapsulate the need to be sceptical of advertising claims from pharma against something or for their claims about their own products – and this can get rather dark, there was a patent taken out for swine flu vaccine two years before swine flu appeared. Just cause they’re wearing a white lab coat doesn’t make them scientists.