This interesting article shows the information and perception gap between scientists that do helicopter surveys of polar bears and the native people who co-exist in their presence.
Excerpts:
In a news release issued after its conference last July, the PBSG concluded that only one of 19 total polar bear subpopulations is currently increasing, three are stable and eight are declining. Data was insufficient to determine numbers for the remaining seven subpopulations. The group estimated that the total number of polar bears is somewhere between 20,000 and 25,000. (Estimates of the population during the 1950s and 1960s, before harvest quotas were enacted, range from 5,000 to 10,000.)
…
Not so fast. According to a U.S. Senate and Public Works Committee report, the “alarm about the future of polar bear decline is based on speculative computer model predictions many decades in the future. Those predictions are being “challenged by scientists and forecasting experts,” said the report.
Those challenges, supported by facts on the ground, including observations from Inuit hunters in the region, haven’t stopped climate fear-mongers at the U.S. Geological Survey from proclaiming that future sea ice conditions “will result in the loss of approximately two-thirds of the world’s current polar bear population by the mid 21st century.”
…
Harry Flaherty, chair of the Nunavut Wildlife Management Board in the capital of Iqaluit, says the polar bear population in the region, along the Davis Strait, has doubled during the past 10 years. He questions the official figures, which are based to a large extent on helicopter surveys.
“Scientists do a quick study one to two weeks in a helicopter, and don’t see all the polar bears. We’re getting totally different stories [about the bear numbers] on a daily basis from hunters and harvesters on the ground,” he says.
…
The growing population has become “a real problem,” especially over the last 10 years, he says. During the summer and fall, families enjoying outdoor activities must be on the look-out for bears. Many locals invite along other hunters for protection.
Last year, in Pelly Bay, all the bears that were captured were caught in town, Nirlungayuk says. “You now have polar bears coming into towns, getting into cabins, breaking property and just creating havoc for people up here,” he says.
…
Flaherty and many others disagree with the official story. “We are aware there are changes in the weather, but it is not affecting the daily life of the animals,” he says. “Polar bears hunt in the floe-edge areas, on newly formed ice, and in the fiords in search of baby seals. They don’t hunt in the glaciers [areas of multi-year ice].
“We’re not seeing negative effects on the polar bear population from so-called climate change and receding ice,” he says. He is convinced that some scientists are deliberately “using the polar bear issue to scare people” about global warming, a view widely shared by many Nunavut locals.
…
Read the entire article here, it is quite enlightening
Gail Combs et al,
What I have to say here, although devoid of polar bear stuff, is not off-topic because it illustrates how opportunistic some animals can be, just like polar bears in extrapolation.
The example of Coyotes attacking humans is somewhat comparable to the Oz so-called native dog; the Dingo. (thought to be introduced by our aborigines).
Whilst in general, dingos are scared or very cautious with humans, in certain National Parks here, visitors have offered food to dingos despite the pleading from Rangers and warning signs not to do so. Consequently, they become almost tame in some places. Nevertheless, if a young child is left poorly attended with these same “tame” dingos, they may opportunistically try to eat him or her. There are several famous examples here.
Also, for example, we have a beautiful but ferocious pure carnivore here known as the spotted quoll, see photos:
http://www.arkive.org/spotted-tailed-quoll/dasyurus-maculates/image-G18251.html
Following some severe forest wildfires here a few years ago, there was some concern that the species was threatened in those regions because much of its usual arboreal prey, such as possums, had perished. No worries, (to use an Aussie expression); when researchers analysed their scats, (faecal matter), they found that the quolls had changed their diet to rabbits, which formerly they did not eat. I think it’s called adaptation, which is arguably similar to or the other side of the coin to opportunism.
Oh, and the introduced European red fox, is quite common within our cities and suburbs, where they raid various human discards and chickens etc. I saw a surprising TV doco, where foxes were stealing and running off with cultivated fallen apples. But then dogs and bears are actually omnivores, and posses intelligence, right?
DesertYote says: December 17, 2011 at 6:29 pm
Gail Combs says:December 17, 2011 at 5:45 pm
That’d account for the bull c**p and the ‘bear’ then.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Bulle_und_B%C3%A4r_Frankfurt.jpg
source:
The Frankfurt Stock Exchange is one of the (oldest &) largest stock exchanges in the world. It is owned and operated by Deutsche Börse, which also owns the European futures exchange Eurex and the clearing company Clearstream. http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2005-03/1877713-deutsche-boerse-withdraws-lse-offer-to-return-cash-to-shareholders-020.htm
The Polar Bears are NOT the problem-PEOPLE are the problem. The polar bears were here first, folks. If human beings were not encroaching on their homes either by warming up the Earth and melting their homes or by building, maybe polar bears would not pose such a “problem.”
Following the 127th comment I’ll add that I appreciate Dr. Bruno’s comments and his follow-ups. I live in coyote, cougar, and black bear country – and, while solo hiking, had a face-to-face encounter with a cinnamon colored black bear a few years ago. I’ll pass on the big white ones.
Thanks, Dr. Bruno and all the rest of you. Do stay polite.
John F Bruno says: (December 17, 2011 at 2:15 pm)
If the bears have difficulty in getting to the algae, can the be persuaded to eat some other Greens? 😉
Bernd Felsche @ur momisugly December 17, 9:26 pm
John F Bruno, please also note:
If you can believe Wikipedia on CAGW and environmental issues, the following extract on polar bears is interesting, with my bold:
QUOTE: On average, each litter has two cubs.[72] The family remains in the den until mid-February to mid-April, with the mother maintaining her fast while nursing her cubs on a fat-rich milk.[72] By the time the mother breaks open the entrance to the den, her cubs weigh about 10 to 15 kilograms (22 to 33 lb).[72] For about 12 to 15 days, the family spends time outside the den while remaining in its vicinity, the mother grazing on vegetation while the cubs become used to walking and playing.[72] Then they begin the long walk from the denning area to the sea ice, where the mother can once again catch seals.[72] Depending on the timing of ice-floe breakup in the fall, she may have fasted for up to eight months.[72]
Further my post above at 10:36 pm, might I add that not only has the mother survived up to 2/3 of a year without any food intake but she has typically produced two cubs totalling 30 KG, (66 pounds), in an inefficient energy transfer, whilst maintaining adequate body temperature for both herself and the cubs, in a sub-zero environment. Stunning!
Al Gored
December 17, 2011 at 6:02 pm
###
I hear that brown bear populations have maxed out, just like wolf populations, given the management tools the environuts allow to be used. I remember reading a while back about an increase in brown bear black bear conflicts, something that has always been quite rare.
Larry Fields
December 17, 2011 at 7:45 pm
DesertYote says:
December 17, 2011 at 6:29 pm
mentioned cougars.
Here’s a little-known act: If you hike alone in the Sierra Nevada foothills, you’re slightly less likely to be attacked by a mountain lion if you’ve included some meat in your breakfast. The big cats can smell what you’ve eaten recently. The lingering smell of that Big Mac that you ate for breakfast will tell the cougar that you’re a carnivore, and definitely not a soft target.
But what if you choose a bean burrito instead? Mua-ha-ha-ha!
###
Don’t need to be in the Sierra Nevada foothills to be in Cougar territory. When I lived in the North Bay, I would see a cat every few months on my walk to work. A couple of times I would see tracks on the dirt road in front of my house. People are so blind. They miss all the stuff around them.
BTW, I think most creatures would steer clear of me after I have had a been burrito …..
bear survival seems no problem. Bear births are frequently multiple, two or three, with a survival rate of 100% in many families which indicates that there is plenty of food available. Ice seems not to be in the calculations as far as the bears are concerned. And the species survived the Medieval WP and the Roman WP both warmer than today.
Dr (?) Bruno said “(bears need solid sea ice to hunt their seal prey)”
(I’m not a scientist.) Are you saying that, if there were no Arctic ice, the seals would live their
whole lives out at sea, while the bears would be stuck on land?
Gail Combs says:
December 17, 2011 at 5:17 pm
Steve from Rockwood says:
December 17, 2011 at 3:37 pm
—————————————————
Gail, scientists crying wolf over AGW is a serious problem. I think many fence-sitters are becoming “deniers” just because of warning fatigue.
I would also add that many of the northern native populations are growing rapidly and much of the population consists of young children. I’ve visited a few of these places myself and am always amazed at the number of young kids (under 10) playing around outside. These villages are cut out of true wilderness.
Sleepalot @345: The bears would indeed be stuck on land and unable to access their prey, but many seal species are also ice-dependent and are as threatened by warming and pack ice loss as polar bears are. Not all of course. Harbor seals don’t need ice and anecdotally seem to be increasing in Hudson Bay.
John Marshall @315: Where on earth did you get your (mis)information on polar bears?
Bob Fernley-Jones @ur momisugly 1054: It is stunning! What makes this possible (besides evolution) is all the calories she consumed the previous winter in the form of seals, that she stores as fat. No ice=no seals=no fat=no cubs.
Bob Fernley-Jones @ur momisugly 832 pm: Certainly bears and dogs are very intelligent and as a group are generally adaptable. And we all know that some species adapt to and benefit from human modification of the landscape; raccoons, rats, deer, some foxes, coyotes, pigeons, starlings, house sparrows, kudzu, etc. But isn’t it also obvious that not all species are so adaptable? There are both generalist and far more specialized and finicky plants and animals (as any gardener knows). Highly specialized species, generally speaking, don’t do well with environmental change, natural or otherwise.
Thanks Sparks @ur momisugly 534 pm: hypocrisy noted:) But you’ve gotta admit, those tundra buggies are so cool! They are custom built locally in Churchill.
On Saturday, Dec 6, 2008, someone videotaped polar bears in San Diego California. The high that day was 76degF. (according to wunderground.com)
“Since polar bears have evolved to live in the extreme conditions of the Arctic, even minor climate changes could profoundly impact the species.”
–earthjustice.org
> John F Bruno says: BioBob @1006: The two species can successfully interbreed but they are > morphologically and ecologically very different. Which is why you don’t see brown bears
> hunting for seals on the ice pack. Your argument is based on a very narrow definition of what a > “species” is – that is far too complex a discussion to get into here.
===========================================
My given definition of a species is a standard one and, in fact, probably the most generally employed one. However, only a species knows the limits of how it defines its’ species since all species are racists, LOL.
Lots of species have morphologically distinct sub-populations, It is the nature of the beast and in fact most species DO have morphologically and behaviorally distinct sub-populations that we call subspecies on the basis of the FACT that they interbreed on the species significant time-scale (the genetics mix enough so that interbreeding is possible). Ursus arctos is no different in that regard. It IS one species no matter how many tantrums you have, since polar bears decided that other populations of the species are suitable and successful mates. Polar bears don’t give a crap how you define their species and THEY get to decide, not you or any other human.
Assuming that the entire population of the polar bear subspecies is wiped out, it seems likely that Ursus arctos will re-invade that habitat once it becomes suitable/possible and found a new subspecies. THAT is the USUAL biological sequence. There is NOTHING sacred about any particular species and earth makes it so, since millions of species have come and gone as a matter of course. NOTHING WE DO CAN CHANGE THAT PROGRESSION. And it is my contention that attempting to do so is not only futile but supremely stupid and arrogant.
Keep in mind that “stupid and arrogant part” since it comprises the lethal error of most scientists since you too have come and WILL go. We ALL shuffle off this mortal coil.
John F Bruno @ur momisugly December 18, 6:19 am
Concerning evidence that pregnant females can fast for up to 2/3 of a year, whilst feeding cubs, and maintaining adequate body temperature for all, you wrote, with my bold:
You seem to contradict yourself, after also writing this:
Well putting aside that they are omnivores, as demonstrated by them having been filmed eating plentiful supplies of summer berries etc, there is also this from Wikipedia, my bold:
My word! You have declared some rather speculative beliefs, have you not?
Several years ago I did quite a bit of digging and discussed this topic with several individuals. Back then I recall there were 24 distinct polar bear populations. In recent years I have notice time and time again that while the polar bears as a whole are increasing the population groupings are being reduced.
Paul in Sweden @ur momisugly 6:43 pm.
I don’t know what to make of your comments that the number of population groupings has reduced whilst population totals have increased. Do you know if groups have merged or if there are areas formerly the range of a group, that are now devoid of bears?
John Bruno,
Further to my 1:31pm just above, that concluded with an observation on the “speculation factor” when biologists make their human assessments on what might prevail in other species with which we cannot communicate.
A good example of my issue is my recollection of a paper from a few years ago that contained an image of a polar bear gazing out to sea, with a caption something like; A polar bear waits for the sea ice to return. Well sorry, but is that speculation, dogma, or what? How long do you think the bear will stand there waiting and longing for it to happen, and why? Although I have a strong interest in wildlife, I’m not a biologist, but as an engineer, I deal with applied scientific logic, and avoid taking risky assumptions because in my field, they can result in disastrous consequences. (unlike in academia, usually).
Now let me suggest to you what I think is a more plausible guess as to what that bear was likely to be thinking: Hmm, after all those berries, I fancy a seaweed salad, to go with whatever else I can find on the seashore today. Or, I suppose I could go for a swim and sneak up underwater near a basking seal or under a paddling seabird. And, you never know, there may be a randy female out there to have fun and games with today. Don’t fancy clambering all the way to those bird colonies today!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I was also intrigued by your twice given assertion that polar bears like to rub their private parts or balls on the ice in order to avoid heat stress. I searched around for information on this, because I was highly entertained and wondered if polar bear testicles have much blubber and fur to protect them, and if it was geometrically possible for them to make contact with the ice. I also wondered if they remain descended at all times. Unsurprisingly there is a dearth of stuff on this wherever I looked, despite that I pursued it with some amused enthusiasm. Nevertheless, there was some other testicle and penis stuff of considerable OTHER interest, but meanwhile,would you please advise the basis of your assertions that these male bears rub their genitals on the ice to keep cool Then perhaps you could elaborate how female bears survive without such an ingenious cooling system?
BTW, you did not respond to my earlier question as to how you know that it is easier for marauding bears to find food in winter, and what choice they have other than seals. (as I understand it, there are fewer species available in winter)
John F Bruno, I have a couple of questions for you. What do you think about the shabby way that Mitch Taylor was treated by his fellow Polar Bear research ‘scientists’? Did you actively participate in the metaphorical tarring-and-feathering? Or did you sit on the sidelines, and clam up? Or did you have the cojones to speak out against it, thereby jeopardizing your research funding? If you choose not to respond, we’ll understand, and we’ll draw our own conclusions.
@Bob Fernley-Jones
You and me both. I really don’t know. The papers I have on the polar bears are archived on an old hard disk sitting on a shelf. I assumed that there must have been some reclassification or like you speculate, some polar bear populations were merged. I really have not a clue. It just continues to gnaw at me because that number 24 sticks in my head.
All I really know is that in North America by mid-May polar bears stop dying(end of polar bear hunting season in Canada….) and that today there are so many polar bears that we see them falling from the sky on TV.