From the Rice University Spaceweather listserv
Our space weather alert system is in level yellow, and the CME input of energy to the Earth’s magnetosphere still continues.
So, if you live in northern latitudes, go out and look for auroras tonight!
If this level of input continues, the auroras may be seen at lower latitudes, even the US/Canadian border or below.
To get your own alert messages, send an email to spacalrt-subscribe@mailman.rice.edu
To see our predicted space weather page, go to
http://mms.rice.edu/realtime/forecast.html
If we go “red” the auroras will be much lower latitude.
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Spaceweather.com writes:
Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say the CME impact caused a strong compression of Earth’s magnetic field, allowing the solar wind to penetrate all the way down to geosyncronous orbit for a brief period between 19:06 UT and 19:11 UT. Earth-orbiting spacecraft could have been directly exposed to solar wind plasma during that time.
Update #2: Strong ground currents have been detected in Norway.
Leif Svalgaard says October 25, 2011 at 10:15 am
Reference 6 in the above has some interesting timeline perspectives. Found a copy here:
http://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/sspvse/posters/DF_Smart/poster.pdf
Thanks Anthony and Leif for this extremely interesting thread.
AJB says:
October 25, 2011 at 4:54 pm
What rules out the sector structure being due of external attenuation that results in longitudinal organization of the field?
What rules it in?
Reference 6 in the above has some interesting timeline perspectives. Found a copy here:
http://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/sspvse/posters/DF_Smart/poster.pdf
Both Don [Smart] and Peggy [Shea] are good friends of mine and their stuff is always interesting. BTW, Ed Cliver and myself note that very large [technologically dangerous] events may be more frequent with a less active sun: http://www.leif.org/research/Cycle%2024%20Smallest%20100%20years.pdf
paragraph [10]: “Average space weather might be ‘‘milder’’ with decreased solar activity, but the extreme events that dominate technological effects are not expected to disappear. In fact, they may become more common. Two of the eight strongest storms in the last 150 years occurred during solar cycle 14 (Rmax = 64) [Cliver and Svalgaard, 2004], while three of the five largest 30 MeV solar energetic proton events since 1859 [McCracken et al., 2001] occurred during cycle 13 (Rmax = 88).”
Leif Svalgaard says October 25, 2011 at 7:33 pm
What rules it in?
Timing (e.g. the late Timo Nimora’s observations) and associated “cyclomania”. Possibly a wider approach than “cyclopsmania” but no closer to a mechanism of course 🙂
AJB says:
October 25, 2011 at 11:27 pm
What rules it in?
Timing (e.g. the late Timo Nimora’s observations) and associated “cyclomania”. Possibly a wider approach than “cyclopsmania” but no closer to a mechanism of course 🙂
What timing explains a 27-day organization?
Perhaps Chicken Little has cried ‘The Sky is Falling’ too many times; the ppl no longer take any ‘warnings’ with any seriousness, plus, it isn’t a ‘draw’ for ratings and still competes with other events (editors must make decisions regarding content and allocation of staff resources to cover same).
The observed effect from Texas last night was a ‘dead’ (weak) 80 Meter band (weakened Ionospheric propagation) …
.
Leif Svalgaard says October 26, 2011 at 5:19 am
Unless in my ignorance I’ve thus far misconstrued the seeds you’ve thrown out (in which case please explain) I’d venture that it’s derived from the rotation of the Sun itself as at the radiative interior, being the dominant frequency if we’re contemplating some form of resonance effect.
One might equally ask why it varies at all or why we see uneven leading and trailing edges on the 27-day peak and harmonics in the power spectrum on your Sector Structure Slide 12. At first blush the spread around the main peak looks oddly like the 0.75/1.15 Jovian year ratio that Timo Nimora hypothesized. But I’m still trying to get my head around the concepts and what you’ve said in Echer and Svalgaard 2004 (plus references). There’s a truck load of meat in there to throw at imaginary tigers in the grass.
Or after a few beers one could ponder what caused these oddly timed inflections in not enough data:
http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/407/onesi.png
… and too much information:
http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/7549/twoz.png
… only to idly muse on what might happen next, now that the red booster has crowed at ‘sundown’ instead of ‘sunrise’. What will those earth based interference patterns on IMF polarity rotation plots look like from here on I wonder? We can only wait and see I guess, mindful that from real science “very large [technologically dangerous] events may be more frequent” as you carefully phrase it.
Hope that book is coming soon BTW, all this digging is getting time consuming 🙂