From Spaceweather.com:
New sunspot 1302 has already produced two X-flares(X1.4 on Sept. 22nd and X1.9 on Sept. 24th), can another be far behind? NOAA forecasters put the 24-hour probability at 20%. The sheer size of the active region suggests the odds might be even higher than that:
Each of the dark cores in this snapshot from the Solar Dynamics Observatory is larger than Earth, and the entire active region stretches more than 100,000 km from end to end. The sunspot’s magnetic field is crackling with sub-X-class flares that could grow into a larger eruption as the sunspot continues to turn toward Earth.
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Here’s some interesting images, graphs, and movies of the flare. Of particular interest is the forecast animation which suggests Earth might get glanced by a large Coronal Mass Ejection on September 26th.
Saturday morning, Sept. 24th, behemoth sunspot 1302 unleashed another strong flare–an X1.9-category blast at 0940 UT. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:
This animated forecast track suggests Earth might get hit by a good sized CME on September 26th(click image if it does not animate). Note the center panel of the animation:
Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say the CME could deliver a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetic field on Sept. 26 at 14:10 UT (+/- 7 hours). Fortunately the bulk of this would be directed away from Earth, but the massive sunspot group can still produce more flares and CME’s as it rotates. It will be an interesting week of spaceweather
From the WUWT Solar page:
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Solar Dynamics Observatory – other image sizes: 4096 2048 1024 – Movie: 48 hr MPEG
SDO HMI Continuum: Greyscale images – 4096 2048 1024 – Movie: 48 hr MPEG (color)
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Is there a correlation between Sunspot size and the magnitude of the 10.7cm Flux??
rbateman says:
September 25, 2011 at 10:25 am
Richard111 says:
September 25, 2011 at 8:54 am
Nothing in the southern regions?
You got it. In fact, I would say that the northern region is a fraction of where it should be in a normal cycle.
~
I still have to wonder if this is an Interstellar Magnetic Field (ISMF) issue.
We know that the polarity of the solar Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) affects the amount of geomagnetic activity here on Earth’s field, so why wouldn’t the ISMF affect the IMF activity of the solar field.
Wonder if solar cycle 25 will have more southern hemisphere spots. That would be interesting or atleast provide some clues..
Earlier today Spaceweather.com showed a proton spike of 30 whoa..where did it go..
Anyone know if the solar system on its travels, bobs up and down the galactic magnetic fields equator?
“Alchemy says @ur momisugly September 25, 2011 at 10:53 am
Wasn’t it a month ago that the terms “new Dalton/Maunder minimum” and “quiet sun” were in play?
Wakee, bloody wakee, Polly.”
A grand minimun is about the number of sunspots NOT the number of solar flares. Flares are expected during the max peak of a solar cycle. So all this flare tells us is that we are nearing the peak of solar cycle 24.
Straight from NASA: http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/06may_carringtonflare/
“”What Carrington saw was a white-light solar flare—a magnetic explosion on the sun,” explains David Hathaway, solar physics team lead at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama.
Now we know that solar flares happen frequently, especially during solar sunspot maximum. Most betray their existence by releasing X-rays (recorded by X-ray telescopes in space) and radio noise (recorded by radio telescopes in space and on Earth).”
Not only that but the Carrington Event occurred during a similar weak solar cycle.
Again from NASA:http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/29may_noaaprediction/
“”If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78,” says panel chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.
It is tempting to describe such a cycle as “weak” or “mild,” but that could give the wrong impression.
“Even a below-average cycle is capable of producing severe space weather,” points out Biesecker. “The great geomagnetic storm of 1859, for instance, occurred during a solar cycle of about the same size we’re predicting for 2013.”
Throwing out unsupported statements without doing your homework may work elsewhere but not here…
M.A.Vukcevic says:
September 26, 2011 at 4:28 am
My graph with the relevant formulae was forwarded, and Dr. Hathaway promptly declared it as a nonsense.
And he was right. You can turn out to be correct [as several other low-ball predictions from before 2005] for the wrong reason.
Carla says:
September 26, 2011 at 5:55 am
so why wouldn’t the ISMF affect the IMF activity of the solar field.
As I have explained to you many times before, the solar wind prevents the ISMF from entering the heliosphere.
Well I came here hoping to gain a little knowledge and too see what all this solar flare talk was about and only learned that I have found yet another site with a bunch of people who act like morons. Even if the arguments were validated, they could have been done in a more mature fashion. Grow up! How do you expect anybody to take you seriously when you act like my three year old without a nap?
I see that Goldman – Sachs is down for “70” as well as “200”.
Leif Svalgaard says:
September 26, 2011 at 9:15 am
Carla says:
September 26, 2011 at 5:55 am
so why wouldn’t the ISMF affect the IMF activity of the solar field.
As I have explained to you many times before, the solar wind prevents the ISMF from entering the heliosphere.
~
But there are gaps and bumps in the IMF. And yes stuff does get upwind. Just ask IMAGE and LENA and IBEX. And how bout a heliospheric bow shock producing fermi accelerated particles to 1AU ..
One last thing. Earth’s field is embedded in the IMF. The solar IMF is embedded in the ISMF.
Maybe it ISMF is fragmented in this neck of the Local interstellar neighborhood. Something to do with cloudlett boundaries..
And one day we find out that all this accretion and reconnection played a significant, primary role in the solar cycle with its variations.
rant off.
Just a few months ago we were shown incontrovertable evidence that following the last 2 weak cycles 23 and 24, there will be no cycle 25. There were three independent lines of evidence, the poleward movement of sunspots, the magnetic field decline, and one other that I cant remember.
This is pretty significant in the solar discussion. One and possibly two cycles are going to drop out, just as in some previous major solar minima.
So why now try to talk up a solar flare or two into some sort of trend? Do we have the memory span of goldfish in a bowl?
Leif Svalgaard says:
September 26, 2011 at 8:55 am
And he was right. You can turn out to be correct [as several other low-ball predictions from before 2005] for the wrong reason.
Hi doc
Nice to see you are back.
Perhaps it is better to be correct for the wrong reason, then to be wrong for the right reason.
But as you say: If correlation is really good …..
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC2.htm
Dr. Lurtz says:
September 26, 2011 at 4:54 am
Is there a correlation between Sunspot size and the magnitude of the 10.7cm Flux??
Debrecen Obs. Sunspot size data:
http://fenyi.sci.klte.hu/DPD/index.html
Penticon Flux data:
ftp://ftp.geolab.nrcan.gc.ca/data/solar_flux/daily_flux_values/fluxtable.txt
That’s going to be a lot of work, if someone hasn’t already gone there, done that.
Bill H says:
September 25, 2011 at 5:00 pm
From the looks of the SDO 195 AIA and STEREO AHEAD & BEHIND EUVI 195’s, it does look like the Sun is cooling back down. It’s recharging the shocker for another big blast, maybe even a Carrington-level event. – clear! – bzzaapp!
Many people are preparing for such affects from solar activity with Faraday cages and bags. The current that flows from a CME can damage most electronics. I got some Faraday bags from techprotectbag.com. They are rated with a military specification so I think they will work.
” Douglas DC says: September 25, 2011 at 9:31 am
The Carrington Event of Sept. 1,1859- was during a relatively shallow cycle as I recall…. ”
Which makes me wonder if the largest flares occur during the shallow cycles all the time? Does the same amount of energy get released by the sun each cycle? If so then during cycles with low numbers of events all the excess energy gets expunged in one big one?
If so I hope it isn’t aimed at us.
Carla says:
September 26, 2011 at 12:46 pm
And yes stuff does get upwind. Just ask IMAGE and LENA and IBEX.
Neutral particles can go upstream. Magnetic fields cannot, and do not.
M.A.Vukcevic says:
September 26, 2011 at 1:55 pm
But as you say: If correlation is really good …..
Except it is not. Fails when you go back in time. As you well know.
rbateman says:
September 25, 2011 at 8:57 pm
At or quite near Solar Max, yes. Maybe a year left, but this is no normal cycle, we shouldn’t really expect normal progression. Remember that map of the currents below the surface that showed that SC25 hasn’t even seeded yet? Wonder if there’s an update.
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No information available… everything i have looked at shows that SC25 has not even created enough under tow to bee seen. given the low noise threshold that SC24 is giving, the inability to see SC25 is truly scary… it could be 1/2 or lower of the current cycle..
I think Brrrrrrrrrr will be a commonplace word soon… with Multi-decadal oscillations all cold were in for a significant cool down… despite what our alarmist friends think..
rbateman says:
September 26, 2011 at 2:40 pm
From the looks of the SDO 195 AIA and STEREO AHEAD & BEHIND EUVI 195′s, it does look like the Sun is cooling back down. It’s recharging the shocker for another big blast, maybe even a Carrington-level event. – clear! – bzzaapp!
_____________________________________________________
Potential for a nice healthy zap to the earth is there…. no doubt about it..
I see that 1230 is already dropping off and beginning to diminish. if we get that Carrington Zap, expect the sun to cool rapidly and our move into the down side of this cycle will be swift. I’m just looking to SC25 and it doesn’t look pretty.. flat line… comes to mind…
Yeah the Carrington event thought crossed my mind too. It reminds me of a sawtooth wave from a capacitor charge circuit. We just had another xray event just now:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/Xray.gif
Anthony,
if you ground short a capacitor it changes the molecular bond of the plates…. if you think about the sun as a huge capacitor, a Carrington event is that ground short… it then takes time for a new charge to develop.. it must first overcome the molecular change.. return the Ions and protons to their proper orbital state. on the sun that can take years.. it also explains why the sun rapidly slows its spot formation after an event..
just waiting for that huge CME to happen… i hope we are not in the line of fire… something about power lines melting just doesn’t strike me as fun…
Re: Joe Bastardi,
About the LIA I’m more into this as cause & effect. http://m.sciencemag.org/content/206/4425/1402