From Spaceweather.com:
New sunspot 1302 has already produced two X-flares(X1.4 on Sept. 22nd and X1.9 on Sept. 24th), can another be far behind? NOAA forecasters put the 24-hour probability at 20%. The sheer size of the active region suggests the odds might be even higher than that:
Each of the dark cores in this snapshot from the Solar Dynamics Observatory is larger than Earth, and the entire active region stretches more than 100,000 km from end to end. The sunspot’s magnetic field is crackling with sub-X-class flares that could grow into a larger eruption as the sunspot continues to turn toward Earth.
=================================================
Here’s some interesting images, graphs, and movies of the flare. Of particular interest is the forecast animation which suggests Earth might get glanced by a large Coronal Mass Ejection on September 26th.
Saturday morning, Sept. 24th, behemoth sunspot 1302 unleashed another strong flare–an X1.9-category blast at 0940 UT. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:
This animated forecast track suggests Earth might get hit by a good sized CME on September 26th(click image if it does not animate). Note the center panel of the animation:
Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say the CME could deliver a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetic field on Sept. 26 at 14:10 UT (+/- 7 hours). Fortunately the bulk of this would be directed away from Earth, but the massive sunspot group can still produce more flares and CME’s as it rotates. It will be an interesting week of spaceweather
From the WUWT Solar page:
 |
|
Solar Dynamics Observatory – other image sizes: 4096 2048 1024 – Movie: 48 hr MPEG
SDO HMI Continuum: Greyscale images – 4096 2048 1024 – Movie: 48 hr MPEG (color)
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
As a ham radio operator, all I can say is IT’S ABOUT TIME! 🙂 28 Mhz (10M) was wide open for the first time in 5 or 6 years & I’m loving it! Talked to over 100 Europeans in a couple of hours – YAY!!!
M.A.Vukcevic says:
September 25, 2011 at 11:43 am
70 spot count of what?
Tell you what. Since the number of something is held in higher esteem than the size or worth of the item, how about you send me the US dollars in your wallet, and I’ll send you twice as many Pesos of the same denomination.
We’ll just call it the Solar Exchange Rate.
I guarantee you won’t buy it any more than I don’t buy the way the number of spots is bandied about irregardless of how weak they are.
rbateman,
WT fudge is your point?
Joe Bastardi says:
Joe,
Are you sure it was this site? There have been predictions all over the place on this site for the last four years, but I think the majority of the solar physicists that occasionally post here thought it would be a hypo cycle, not a hyper cycle. This site is certainly not a sounding board for NASA’s predictions, if that is what you were talking about.
“big sunspot rotating into view . . .”
Excellent. Time to break out the telescope and the solar filter this week.
Joe was referring to spaceweather.com , not Watts Up With That.
rbateman says:
September 25, 2011 at 12:45 pm
……………..
I am not competent to judge or even less to challenge the official numbers published either by NOAA or SIDC. I hear daily of scientists challenging various climate data, but I have not come across similar discontent, either among the solar scientists or actual professional observers, regarding the current sunspot count.
I have no quarrel with anyone’s opinion; I am just content to point out that numbers I calculated nearly 8 years ago are materialising. At the time Dr. Hathaway was predicting very strong SC24, and he personally some 5 years ago rejected my projections as nonsense. He may still come up trumps but I doubt it.
Don says:
September 25, 2011 at 1:00 pm
It should have been obvious, but nevertheless, once more:
You have 10 coins in your pocket. What is the total value?
a.) 10 cents
b.) 50 cents
c.) 10 pesos
d.) It depends on the face value (or measure) or each coins worth, and how it exchanges/compares with other coinage.
So, to say the SSN is 70 is comparable to a prediction, it is assumed that the relative sizes of the counted (not measured) spots are of a normal distribution.
So, if SC24 spots are significantly less than a normal distribution (in measured area) then to say the prediction is met is omitting relative factors.
It may be news to you that the effect of L&P is telling on the distribution of spot sizes (measured areas) in this Solar Cycle 24.
Is that clear enough for you?
Ray says at 9.45am: “It’s a respectable spot but it should not defined as a Behemoth…….” The area of this group today is about 1700 millionths of the sun’s visible hemisphere, corrected for foreshortening. This puts it just into the Greenwich catagory of a ‘giant sunspot’ – greater than 1500 millionths. The largest spot group on record in April 1947 was some 6000 millionths – i.e. nearly four times the size of todays group – that really was a Behemoth!
rbateman,
I completely ignored your second explaination because like the first it had no relevance to the point MA Vukecvic made and to which you referenced at the begining of your nonsense.
Is that clear enough for you???
Interesting… size does matter..
The average sun spot will deliver an average level of energy..
The question then becomes did this sun spot give us the average output or did its size increase that output and by how much.. and how much of that energy is actually absorbed by the earth? a short term shot to be sure but how will it affect the earths systems?
Many of the historical events that happened during a low solar output have signaled a shut down and rapid cooling of the sun.. I wonder if this is one of those events… looking at circulation patterns on the sun they are already slowing again. We are at or near solar maximum so this does not surprise me..
interesting times we live in…
Alchemy says:
September 25, 2011 at 10:53 am
Wasn’t it a month ago that the terms “new Dalton/Maunder minimum” and “quiet sun” were in play?
Wakee, bloody wakee, Polly.
I would suggest that not only is there much yet to be learned about sunspots and terrestrial climate change (or not), but also we don’t seem to have a predictive grasp on sunspot cyclicity, other than in the broad strokes of 11 year cycles.
____________________________________________________
Not so fast… It is not uncommon for a significant event and uptick to precede a fast cool down…
This is one I will let play out for a bit before making any predictions.. The overall makeup of this spot indicates a roll over of a large area of gas. This could grow or it could go cold quickly… we simply do not have enough information right now… give it a day or so…
Sunspots, X-flares, ” Earth might get hit by a good sized CME on September 26th”
That’s today!
We’re doomed.
@ur momisugly Henry P
“Has anyone here actually figured out yet what did cause the natural warming of the past 5 decades”
Mostly the mass of hot-air emanating from climate scientists.
Don says:
September 25, 2011 at 4:41 pm
rbateman,
I completely ignored your second explaination because like the first it had no relevance to the point MA Vukecvic made and to which you referenced at the begining of your nonsense.
Is that clear enough for you???
===============================
Nonsense? Who the hell are YOU…to ignore what?
I won’t end this post with the “is that clear enough for you” (which is weak by the way)…repeated in a red herring way the second (secondhander) time, because you don’t know what you are talking about in the first place and you are tangling with titans.
Keep squeaking. It’s entertaining.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
savethesharks says:
September 25, 2011 at 7:33 pm
Never a dull moment in a Solar Cycle thread.
Bill H says:
September 25, 2011 at 4:45 pm
At or quite near Solar Max, yes. Maybe a year left, but this is no normal cycle, we shouldn’t really expect normal progression. Remember that map of the currents below the surface that showed that SC25 hasn’t even seeded yet? Wonder if there’s an update.
Don may be sensitive to magnetic field weaknesses. I have noticed that strong magnetic fields seem to make most people feel good and weakened fields seem to make a lot of people grouchy. Just about the entire animal kingdom for that matter…
rbateman says:
September 25, 2011 at 2:56 pm
Don says:
September 25, 2011 at 1:00 pm
It should have been obvious, but nevertheless, once more:
You have 10 coins in your pocket. What is the total value?
——-
a.) 0, there’s a hole in your pocket
b.) 0, the Feds took ’em all
c.) 10 cents
d.) noncents
5.) blue, no wait, red!
8 – )
re post by: Don says: September 25, 2011 at 11:40 am
According to google scholar, that article was cited 125 times. It’s interesting that searching on the lead author’s name returns a second paper in a different journal that looks awfully similar. I suppose one would have to actually read both papers to see if they’re essentially the same work or if they are somehow different. Regardless, the same “we predict that cycle 24 will be 30%-50% stronger than the current cycle 23” claim is in it’s abstract too.
They weren’t the only ones predicting a large cycle apparently. The following article was cited 52 times.
Geomagnetic activity indicates large amplitude for sunspot cycle 24
[PDF] from nasa.govDH Hathaway, RM Wilson – Geophysical …, 2006 – solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/papers/hathadh/HathawayWilson2006.pdf
In which it was said: “…size of the recent maximum in this second component indicates that solar activity cycle 24 will be much higher than average – similar in size to cycles
21 and 22 with a peak smoothed sunspot number of 160 ± 25….”
Yet a year before either of those articles, Leif Svalgaard published:
Sunspot cycle 24: Smallest cycle in 100 years?
[PDF] from dtic.milL Svalgaard – 2005 – DTIC Document
http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA434948
I haven’t gone into each to get their actual prediction numbers & compare to observed data, but I’d think it probably safe to make a modest bet on who’s been closer at least.
Here’s the field of predictions:
http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24.html
Spector;
Though you may admire the sun’s flair, we’re talking about flares here. Please try to stay on topic.
>:(
>:p
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/satellite/
Forbush events
The theory goes something like this. If GCRs play a role in cloud formation, then when they decrease you should be able to detect an decrease in cloudiness or conversely an increase in solar radiation reaching the surface.
Rational Debate says:
September 26, 2011 at 12:37 am
…………….
It is this article
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2006/21dec_cycle24/
that prompted the correspondence with Dr. Hathaway. My graph
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NFC7.htm
(updated with SSN since) with the relevant formulae was forwarded, and Dr. Hathaway promptly declared it as a nonsense.
@ur momisugly Brian H – but as my boss (several decades ago) used to say, “Let’s not get pendantic about this …”.
(Nobody ever corrected him) 😉