Offline much of today and this week as I’m doing a special project that will have me offline a lot. Guest posters feel free to jump in. Details below.
Those that wish to write guest posts can compose them and submit via the newly created Submit Story submission form. For image insertion into posts, may I suggest the free www.tinypic.com which Bob Tisdale regularly uses?
Posts don’t have to be long. They can be short news blurb summaries of about 150-250 words, much like is done at slashdot.org or they can be full fledged posts with embedded data and images.
Those of you that have guest author privileges – you know what to do.
– Anthony
UPDATE: Apologies – the Submit Story feature got hidden yesterday by an errant goof by one of our moderators who marked the page as “private” – fixed now – Anthony
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http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/the-dangers-of-boneheaded-beliefs-20110602-1fijg.html
Oh here we go. McKibben calls for civic disobedience.
http://www.commondreams.org/view/2011/05/30-5
Published on Monday, May 30, 2011 by TruthDig.com
The Sky Really Is Falling
by Chris Hedges
“It goes far beyond party affiliation or ideology,” he said. “Fossil fuel undergirds every ideology we have. Breaking with it is going to be a traumatic and difficult task. The natural world is going to continue to provide us, unfortunately, with many reminders about why we have to do that. Sooner or later we will wise up. The question is all about that sooner or later.”
“I’d like people to go to climatedirectaction.org and sign up,” McKibben said. “We are going to be issuing calls for people to be involved in civil disobedience
I would like people to demonstrate their solidarity with people all around the world in this fight. The next big chance to do that will be Sept. 24, a huge global day of action that we’re calling ‘Moving Planet.’ It will be largely bicycle based, because the bicycle is one of the few tools that both rich and poor use and because it is part of the solution we need.
“I wish there was some easy ‘end around,’ some backdoor through which we could go to get done what needs to be done,” he said. “But that’s not going to happen. That became clear at Copenhagen and last summer when the U.S. Senate refused to take a vote on the most mild, tepid climate legislation there could have been. We are going to have to build a movement that pushes the fossil fuel industry aside.
“At least they knew they were going to win,” he said of the civil rights movement.
We’ve got to win quickly if we’re going to win. We’ve already passed the point where we’re going to stop global warming. It has already warmed a degree and there is another degree in the pipeline from carbon already emitted. The heat gets held in the ocean for a while, but it’s already there. We’ve already guaranteed ourselves a miserable century. The question is whether it’s going to be an impossible one.”
They just cant help themselves – every click is killing the planet:
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Could%20killing%20planet%20search%20time/4891461/story.html
@Kim Øyhus — Please explain what you mean by “absence of evidence”.
If you mean “no evidence exists” then your proof is correct, but it is meaningless as we can never be sure that no evidence exists.
If you mean “no evidence has been observed” then the proof is flawed. Evidence may exist, but we are yet to find it.
Perhaps you have some other definition that I am not aware of.
By the way, Merriam Webster redirects “evidences” to “evidence”.
The noun “evidence” does not have a separate plural. The same word is used.
However the verb “evidence” has “evidences” as a transitive form. e.g. the arrival of swallows evidences the approach of spring.
c.s.
I took a look at the vid’s you posted. There is a lot of guilt by association going on in the first which I don’t find very effective or useful – but no matter.
The second vid is more interesting. I think they make an effective point that sea ice extent is an important indicator. I also think they dissemble making their argument about percentages. There is some validity in the point they make, but their suggestion doesn’t improve on the matter because they don’t point out that they have used different divisors in the percentages they compare. If they go the route they suggest they should have the same divisor in the percentages -in other words Arctic ice/total ice versus Antarctic ice/total ice. Using Arctic ice (current)/Arctic ice(past) versus Antarctic ice(current)/Antarctic ice(past) buries in the percentages the fact that there is much more Antarctic ice than Arctic ice. Most interesting of all is the following vid by the same group or person:
In this vid it is stated that there is a bipolar seesaw as regards to temperatures, and that most current climate scientists accept this . If I believe in the bipolar seesaw (which I may not) I would expect the total sea ice to be the important number and NOT the Arctic ice alone. They themselves argue “when one part of the planet warms, another cools at the same time.” They are doing this because they are uncomfortable Dansgaard-Oeschger events as reflected in Greenland ice cores – claiming that D-O events are regional not global. One thing I require of my sciences are that they be consistent. Don’t tell me on Monday that temps at opposite poles are regional but then on Friday argue the opposite.
Michael J, nice to see someone actually check a word in Merriam-Webster. You deserve an answer. I use language to convey information, not to follow rules.
I thought the examples on the proof page would be sufficient, but many people have the same problem as you, so perhaps they are not.
So, evidence for a murder would be a dead body, blood spatter, a smoking gun.
If any of these evidences are not there, they are absent, and the probability of murder is less.
Rabbits leave rabbit tracks. (A lot of people had problems understanding that the tracks that rabbits leave are rabbit tracks.) If there are fewer rabbit tracks, then there are fewer rabbits, because rabbits make rabbit tracks. The rabbit tracks are evidence for rabbits, and when rabbit tracks are absent, there is less chance of meeting a rabbit.
Kim Øyhus says:
June 6, 2011 at 9:12 am
If you don’t follow the rules, then you convey no information.
Kim Øyhus says:
June 6, 2011 at 9:12 am
Michael J, nice to see someone actually check a word in Merriam-Webster. You deserve an answer. I use language to convey information, not to follow rules.
I thought the examples on the proof page would be sufficient, but many people have the same problem as you, so perhaps they are not.
So, evidence for a murder would be a dead body, blood spatter, a smoking gun.
If any of these evidences are not there, they are absent, and the probability of murder is less.
Rabbits leave rabbit tracks. (A lot of people had problems understanding that the tracks that rabbits leave are rabbit tracks.) If there are fewer rabbit tracks, then there are fewer rabbits, because rabbits make rabbit tracks. The rabbit tracks are evidence for rabbits, and when rabbit tracks are absent, there is less chance of meeting a rabbit.
__________
I like the Rabbit track analogy with respect to trying to follow your thought process in this thread. Kinda like a fox chasing a zig-zagging rabbit through a field………
@Kim Øyhus — OK, Kim. Now you are talking about probability; “likelihood” perhaps. This is a different situation from logical proof.
If you cannot see any rabbit prints, then the likelihood of rabbits is certainly lower, but it is not zero. Maybe the ground is hard, or the wind covered the prints. But probably there are no rabbits.
You started with “Absence of evidence is evidence of absence.”. Given the context of this site, I read “evidence” as “scientific evidence”; i.e. “proof”. I think that maybe you intended it as “hints”. Is that correct?
The phrase is sometimes used about Global Warming, and in that context I do not think it is true. There is so much that we do not know about the climate that there could easily be evidence in front of our noses, and we might not see it.
Obviously, a long absence of evidence of disastrous AGW will give us a degree of confidence, but it is definitely not proof.
Regarding “evidences”, I did not complain about your language. Your meaning was clear and that is enough. I only commented when you were arguing the point with another commenter. From your name, I am guessing that English may not be your first language. Anybody who can communicate in multiple languages has my great respect. I speak only one language, and I am still trying to master it. 🙂
“Steve Oregon says:
June 6, 2011 at 7:47 am
Oh here we go. McKibben calls for civic disobedience.”
What distant planet is McKibben talking about? There has been some violent weather last year. And the year before that, and the year before that and before that as far as we can collectively recall. So a couple of quick questions: What is different and how on Earth is Mankind responsible for the non-difference? Global warming? A little I suppose; but the temperature record itself is dubious and shows little, very little change. Nothing catastrophic or even very interesting (oh heresy!) outside a relatively small group of technical specialists, scientists, and interested educated laymen. How oh how is this a crisis?
Oh, now I remember, it isn’t this planet McKibben is talking about; he’s actually talking about a planet he invented in his poetic disaster-pornography novel “Eaarth”.
World’s first solar power station that *LEGITIMATELY* makes electricity at night.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1393879/Gemasolar-Power-Plant-The-worlds-solar-power-station-generates-electricity-NIGHT.html
Occupying 185 hectares (457 acres, 0.714 sq miles, 1.85 sq kilometers) in southern Spain with 2650 mirrors (heliostats), sunlight is focused on a central tower, where molten salts are heated, then the salts are stored and can generate electricity for up to 15 hours on a full charge, for overnight or when there is no sunlight.
The pics must have been taken during a “testing phase,” in the 2nd one I can only count 6 panels that look aimed at the tower with 3 panels to the far left in differing positions.
Wow, those other renewable energies must be rather pathetic. So what happens for the maximum 95 days of the year when this power station ain’t producing?
During a full 365 day year, that averages as 502 watts per hour. Might be enough for some CFL’s, but my coffeemaker uses twice that amount. Going by that stated 270 days of generation at minimum, that’s a whopping giant average 679 watts per hour. Great, you can have a few CFL’s on while waiting for your hot water to be generated at half the rate of a common coffeemaker. Good thing that in the Andalucia region they don’t need electricity for air conditioning and refrigeration, let alone heating and cooking, as opposed to other regions of Spain where they do use electricity for those purposes.
Note: This is as opposed to non-legitimate solar power generation at night, as previously mentioned here when done in Spain (same country as above, amazingly enough):
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/04/13/the-insanity-of-greenery/
This is also as opposed to the many other residential and otherwise “solar stations” that already “generate electricity at night” by converting the energy stored in solar-charged batteries into normal household-type AC current, since apparently they don’t count. ☺
The author Clive Cussler had an international criminal try to blow up a Mississippi levee
and cause the river to change course and leave the Port of New Orleans high and dry. Suppose that a massive ice age flood did the same thing? Good by Midwestern economy.
One might reformulate Kim’s proof: Each time we fail finding evidence for A, the likelihood or probability for (not A) rises.
People, first find out about conditional probabilities and the rules that apply to them before bashing Kim because his proof looks perfectly fine to me.
@ur momisugly Kim Øyhus: my head already aches from trying to get around your suggested Bayesian definition of “causation” for your supposed proof that “correlation is evidence of causation” – though the evidential value of any such correlation (as we lawyers tend to put it) is unknown and unquantifiable, and all one can truly conclude is that any instance of non-correlation conclusively proves non-causation.
You are doing the same again here: purporting to define concepts such as “evidence” and “absence” in terms which are actually just meaningless riddles – as is the conclusion you draw from them, which also lacks any evidential value.
I think you made your position amply clear in your posting to tAV as below:
http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2011/04/23/reply-to-a-believer/#comment-49714
kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:
June 6, 2011 at 11:44 am
“World’s first solar power station that *LEGITIMATELY* makes electricity at night.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1393879/Gemasolar-Power-Plant-The-worlds-solar-power-station-generates-electricity-NIGHT.html
”
Going by the numbers in the article, assuming a value of 5 Eurocent/kWh, and (ignorantly) assuming 1 GBP=1 EUR (sorry, i’m lazy) they will recoup the money in 130 years (assuming an inflation of zero %). That’s a world record…
DirkH says:
June 6, 2011 at 1:11 pm
“Going by the numbers in the article, assuming a value of 5 Eurocent/kWh, and (ignorantly) assuming 1 GBP=1 EUR (sorry, i’m lazy) they will recoup the money in 130 years (assuming an inflation of zero %). That’s a world record…”
Ohh, sorry, that was TOO lazy; 260mill / 5.5mill yearly value gives 47.27 years… sorry i take it all back and i’m not sure whether they still qualify for the world record of slowest ROI ever.
Steve Oregon says:
June 6, 2011 at 7:47 am
Oh here we go. McKibben calls for civic disobedience.
‘“At least they knew they were going to win,” he said of the civil rights movement.
We’ve got to win quickly if we’re going to win.’
I wonder who he sees in the role of Dr. MLK, Jr.? Who in the role of the people who sat illegally at lunch counters in Birmingham in 1963? What will be the act of disobedience? Maybe drinking Starbucks and smoking dope on the DC Mall?
This article is good for a few laughs:
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Could killing planet search time/4891461/story.html
the Internet is destroying the climate!
California’s Protected Golden Eagle dying in large numbers to green windmills according to the Daily Mail.
“California’s attempts to switch to green energy have inadvertently put the survival of the state’s golden eagles at risk.
Scores of the protected birds have been dying each year after colliding with the blades of about 5,000 wind turbines.
Now the drive for renewable power sources, such as wind and the sun, being promoted by President Obama and state Governor Jerry Brown has raised fears that the number of newborn golden eagles may not be able to keep pace with the number of turbine fatalities.
The death count along the ridgelines of the Bay Area’s Altamount Pass Wind Resource Area has averaged 67 a year for three decades.
The 200ft high turbines, which have been operating since the 1980s, lie in the heart of the grassy canyons that are home to one of the highest densities of nesting golden eagles in the US.
‘It would take 167 pairs of local nesting golden eagles to produce enough young to compensate for their mortality rate related to wind energy production,’ field biologist Doug Bell, manager of East Bay Regional Park District’s wildlife programme, told the Los Angeles Times. ‘We only have 60 pairs,’ he added.
Nationwide, about 440,000 birds are said to be accidentally killed at wind farms each year, as well as thousands more bats. With the government pushing for more wind energy farms, that statistic is likely to rise.”
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1394945/The-green-killer-Scores-protected-golden-eagles-dying-colliding-wind-turbines.html#ixzz1OXqOcOJY
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Could%20killing%20planet%20search%20time/4891461/story.html
Anyone know how many episodes of Happy Days were made after Fonzie jumped the shark?
Smokey… thank you for sharing the link to Barrett’s Privateers sung by the original writer, Stan Rogers. I have a version by The Corries that I have always loved.
Here is a song that, for sheer clever wordsmithing, can’t be beat! (you can skip the little intro but you will enjoy the song!)
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ukvBRKiYcr0&w=480&h=390%5D
When I was a young apprentice
and less than compos mentis
I took leave of all my senses
with a maid I fell in love.
Her ringlets so entwined me
Aphrodite’s smile did blind me
Cupid’s arrow struck behind me
and her father owned a pub.
It was there I met my nemesis
in her father’s licensed premises
Like the Seraphim of Genesis
sat Mary Anne Maguire.
Arrayed in fine apparel
astride a porter barrel
She looked the kind of girl that
would fill you with desire.
All the turtle doves were cooing
as I took to my wooing
Her Loveliness pursuing
in the springtime of that year.
But she thought I should be older
and more gallant and much bolder
In the uniform of a soldier
’tis then she’d hold me dear.
In extremis and euphoria
I joined with Queen Victoria
For a spell of death or gloria
a-fighting with the Boers.
To the wind I threw all caution
I’ll return with fame and fortune
And together make a portion
of matrimony’s chores.
On the gravestone of her mother
she swore she loved no other
But I was to soon discover
that she played me for a berk.
For lady-luck had beached me
and intelligence had reached me
Whilst I’d been overseas she
had married to a Turk.
Well me, I then deserted
for to find the girl who’d flirted
Back to Ireland I reverted
for my jealously was roused.
In Maguire’s Pub in Derry
I found him making merry
With his arms around my Mary
as together they caroused.
So I took my time and waited
until his thirst was sated
And home he navigated
through the streets of Derry town.
At his lodgins he stood knocking
and whilst they were unlocking
I put a stone into a stocking
on his head I brought it down.
‘Twas then the night’s serenity
was rent with loud obscenity
And Ottoman profanity
that I couldn’t understand.
With an oath he made to grab me
with full intent to stab me
But as he tried to kebab me
I was screaming up the strand.
All around the town’s perimeter
he chased me with his scimitar
A powerful passion limiter
to an errant in his pride.
Through the waterside he chased me
to the Bridge of Foyle he raced me
And at Derry Quay he faced me
so I jumped into the tide.
Sure bravery’s no virtue
when some heathen’s trying to hurt you
And all noble thoughts desert you
when you see his curly knife.
For there’s many things worth trying for
and occasionally worth lying for
But there’s bugger-all worth dying for
so I’ll stick to the soldier’s life.
Joanie,
Thank you for that link, very entertaining. Having grown up in an Irish neighborhood I’m well aware of their musical gift.
[The link I gave for Barret’s Privateers was sung by the Irish Descendants, not by Stan Rogers. Here is the tune sung by Stan, his brother [with the long hair] and friends.]
What’s that blasted Sun up to these days?
For one, the area of umbra in spots is lacking:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/TempGr/uSC24vs13_14.GIF
Compared to 1901-5, it’s looking like a bit weaker than that cycle. Also, the flux shoots up when new spots appear, but stays up there as the spots shrink. Most puzzling.
Secondly, a lot of the spot groups appear to be short lived and lacking in umbra:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/TempGr/uvp2324a.PNG
The L&P effect holds to base course. Meanwhile, the southern part of the cycle makes no move towards the equator. The northern band of spots looks to hit the Solar Equator mid-2012. I’m half-heartedly expecting the Max to consist of a mess of weak spots, which would be par for SC24 behavior. It has yet to do anything normal, why change oars now?
What is really interesting (and rather unexpected) is the re-emergence of the Northern Solar Polar Cap.
http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/beacon/latest_256/ahead_euvi
Not entirely ‘there’ yet, but it’s working on it.
SC24: the asthmatic cycle that keeps right on sputtering, and sputtering, and sputtering…
http://www.weiner.house.gov/news_display.aspx?id=1386
Anthony Weiner:
“As President Obama challenges world leaders to join the United States and address the impacts of climate change; New Yorkers should pay close attention. New York has a unique opportunity to lead a green revolution in our economy and create thousands of high paying jobs, generate millions in investment to grow small businesses and put hard working middle class New Yorkers back to work.”
DirkH, you obviously understand the proof. What you learn from this discussion is how incompetent and arrogant people really are, confusedly bashing something they do not understand, but which intelligent rational people find quite obvious. This is the reason I seldom believe what people claim anymore, unless they have proven their veracity.
TimC, you seem to me to be a representative sample of lawyers, if you truly are a lawyer, as your sentences are long and convoluted while totally missing the meanings, facts and logic.
MichaelJ, my proof is about conditional probabilites. It states that clearly.