UPDATE: 7PM EDT MONSTER TORNADO on LIVE WEBSTREAMING near Norman OK
Update by Ryan Maue
A Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) tornado watch (#356) has just been issued for Central Oklahoma and North Central Texas including DFW and OKC.
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER... THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
Tornado likelihood is very high… SPC Convective Outlook:
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A VIGOROUS AND PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED THIS EVENING. LATEST TCC PROFILER DATA SHOWS 90+ KNOT FLOW AT 6KM...INDICATIVE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX THAT WILL NOSE INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE... SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TX...OK...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KS. BY MID AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS INTO WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. STRONG HEATING AND RICH MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH NEAR DRY-ADIABATIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL YIELD AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 4000-4500 J/KG. PRESENT INDICATIONS AND LATEST OPERATIONS/MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE KS/OK DRYLINE BY MID AFTERNOON AND MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. EARLY IN THE EVENT...THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE OVER KS AS STORMS INTERACT WITH PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...CONTINUED HEATING AND LARGE SCALE LIFT DUE TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MAY LEAD TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO TRACK ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA DURING THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRENGTHENING...WITH ALL CONDITIONS FAVORING THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACKED STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL OK...AND CENTRAL KS
Real-time Forecast Links:
Tornado Probability -- Outlook issued 1625z May 24, 2011 NCEP 4-km Radar Forecast from two versions of the WRF model (ARW and NMM cores): 48-hour animation initialized at 12:00z on May 24, 2011 (from Ryan Maue’s FSU website)
============================================================== UPDATE: I’ve added my own radar product for people to watch, click the image to animate it:
If you want to track storms at the local level, download a free copy of StormPredator
Can’t buy a freaking break this year.
Anthony, do you really think this is happening? I’m in the middle of it, and I just aint seeing it. Of course, bad things can happen fast. I’m keeping my eyes (and ears) open.
[ryanm: yes, keep an eye to the skies]
Not good. Not good at all…
We’re all holding our breath in SE KS and SW MO. Here’s to hoping these models are just as effective as most climate scientists’.
P.S. Anthony, you got the link messed up to Ryan’s site, you put the “r” on the other side of the forward slash.
The cold pool conveyor belt just keeps on giving. The Joplin storm was our storm from mid week last week. Today’s dirty weather is the wave that came through late in the week. The storm that will hit us tomorrow will be a real trouble maker in the S. Plains. There is another one for Memorial Day weekend and another early the following week. No end of pain in sight.
Anthony or Ryan, I’ll add that our local weathermen (who are among the best in the world for these situations) are still warning strongly, though odds are only around 50/50. Still, this from one local: “wind gusts of 55 to 75 mph and nearly baseball-sized hail.” Still, from what I see so far, I’m optimistic that it will not get bad. (But what do I know. I’m a metallurgist, not a meteorologist.)
Lets pray that people are given enough time to cover and few people injuried.
Noticed that; I’m in the SE corner of that PDS watch box too.
The corresponding, preceding Mesoscale Discussion issued at 12:18 PM CDT:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0925.html
AREAS AFFECTED…NW TX…WRN AND CNTRL OK
CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 241718Z – 241845Z
STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN OK AND NW TX OVER THE NEXT HOUR. SUPERCELLS SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED BY 18Z.
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 997 MB LOW IN THE NRN TX PANHANDLE WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS FAR WRN OK INTO WEST TX. THE DRYLINE IS STARTING TO ADVANCE EWD WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN EXPANDING FIELD OF CUMULUS FROM I-40 IN WRN OK SWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO IN WCNTRL TX. AS FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CAP WEAKENS … RAPID CELL INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. AS THIS OCCURS…A 50 TO 65 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTING NEWD TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS WILL CREATE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. AS STORMS INTENSIFY … VERY LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BECOME LIKELY. IN ADDITION … A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS IN PLACE ACROSS NW TX AND WRN OK. AS THIS FEATURE STRENGTHENS…LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES INCREASING INTO THE 450 TO 600 M2/S2 RANGE … LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
..BROYLES.. 05/24/2011
.
Also, the 1633z / 1:33 PM CDT surface map: http://oi53.tinypic.com/11gsz2f.jpg
Dew points round about 70’s throughout the corridor defined for the watch …
.
I should’ve been a storm-chaser.
Keep your heads down guys, Climate change may or may not kill your grandchildren but you’ve got to live long enough to have them!
Looks like it is starting.
Any tornado is bad, don’t get me wrong, but we really need to catch a break with these awful F3+ long duration storms. It is one thing to hunker down in an inner room or hallway when a “little” (Heh, the only little tornadoes are ones you are not in…) one hits, (been there done that, no scars except on my psyche…;-) ) but these huge half mile+ wedge tornadoes are simply not survivable in many cases as we have sadly seen.
If you are under the gun, good luck and stay close to a basement somewhere!
From OKC, it has begun. Pop-ups increasing west of Lawton and north, both sides of I-40. We could be in for a bumpy ride.
Current Radar with Warnings, from Ryan. CLICK for last two-hour animation of radar + warnings
Best real-time source:
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap
And … we have ignition along the dryline in Oklahoma –
Visible sat image 1915z / 2:15 PM CDT – http://oi51.tinypic.com/jauayp.jpg
.
This is not looking good…the only thing I think OK, SW MO and SE KS can hope for really at this point is that the tornadoes do what they did in St. Louis and skip the killing and just destroy property. That or land somewhere where people are not at…..
For Central Oklahoma, these guys are what I depend on:
http://www.news9.com/category/167025/weather-storm-tracker
http://www.4warn.com/
Thanks Ryan M.
Right now (2:40 CDT) it’s warm (82°F), windy (25 mph), humid (69%), and the pressure (29.60 in.) is falling. Everything’s right for thunderstorms and tornadoes.
I’ve been keeping up with the radar at:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=TLX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Wish I had Athony’s weather app (http://www.stormpredator.com/index.htm). And a TV to run it on.
OK S.
Ryan, maybe my Java needs to be updated, but I am not getting your links to work.
19:37z / 2:37 PM CDT Fredrick (FDR) .5 deg 124 nmi WSR-88D image:
http://oi53.tinypic.com/w8tkld.jpg
I see T-storm ignition has taken place in Texas on this one too …
Things are heating up.
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php
The upside is, Mark, “We’ve got rain!” (we’ve been in a bit of drought for awhile in Tejas)
.
13:54 mountain time Dodge City Ks radar is showing some 68-70 dbz cells, one is tracking just south of Garden City. Looks like there will be some healthy storm development if they are getting returns like that this early in the day.
There are another pair of strong cells that on their current track (if they live that long) will track through the Wichita Ks area.
Eastern Colorado has a strong group of storms near the Colorado Kansas border.
It looks like the severe storms folks will have a busy day.
Current storm tracks are from the south west to the north east. Current development is in the west end of Oklahoma, Kansas area and the extreme east part of Colorado.
Larry