Pielke Sr. The Westerlies Explain The Recent Extreme Winter Weather, Not “Global Warming”

Well if we are going to play bridge, I’m going to lay my hand on the table, if any of you can find things of value in the pile of accumulated ideas I remember from every thing I have seen and read over the past 50 years. First an over draft of how I think the picture on the puzzle box looks like.
All of the universe affects the rest of it, it all sits in a bowl of gravitational and magnetically driven mass of ions and regular atoms, that respond to the basic physics detailing the “normal rules or laws”. To think that there are voltages or ions that move with out magnetic fields attached violates first principals. The magnetically permeable inductive components of planetary bodies are susceptible to Ohms laws, and power equations apply to the full spectrum of from DC to most energetic particle seen.
So we should be able to figure forces at work when planets have synod conjunctions, by determining the shifts of flux of the magnetic fields, with the shifting density and speed of the solar wind. When the Ulysses satellite was on polar orbit of the sun “they were amazed that the patterns usually seen in the solar wind were still there, but also much stronger than they expected by several orders of magnitude.” To me this means that the main crux of magnetic connections between the planets is in the normal distribution of concentrations at the poles/apexes of lab magnets and the large sweeping fields are weakest along the circumference, neutral current sheet, or equatorial regions, and also not only flowing with the neutral sheet of the solar wind but focus concentrations down onto the poles of the planets, as evidenced by the polar Auroral displays from the much larger loops further off of the ecliptic plane.
The galactic magnet fields are also influenced by basic rules of action as well, which leads me to the conclusion that the interactions of the composite system from the rotation of the Galaxy, and the declinational movement of the solar system in that larger frame of reference, as well as the density waves that propagate around driving the spiral arm flux variances give rise to the longer cyclic term climatology of the Earth. Some have been found, other underlying cycles that as yet we do not have their specific drivers identified. (back to this point later)
The heliopause seems to have auroral knotted bands (recently spotted ribbons of ion activity) on its leading side as it progresses through the interstellar gases and dust clouds, the solar system passes through in its travels. I think that this is due to the conductance of the galactic fields into or through the heliopause, coupling through the polar regions of the sun and planets, at near equilibrium, or the balance felt as steering currents in the slow transition of the orbital slowing and swaying of the solar system as it winds its way through the gravitational and radiation gauntlet, shoved around ever so slowly by the rest of the individual stars.
So then as a result the makeup of the planetary interaction periods have become some what stable, and have formed harmonic coupled interactions between themselves, and the non-random long term slower periods. Not much is said about the tilt of the magnetic poles, of most of the planets and the sun from their spin axes. I think even this has something to add about long term climate effects. In the common hospital use of MRI scanners, the magnetic induction pulses are used to flip atomic spin axes in line with the dense fields momentarily formed with pulse current on, and watching the return to ambient spin axes when current goes off. (back to this point later) If people have learned to control the effects would not they also occur in nature if they are so predictable? If you apply the calculations with the right power increase needed to satisfy the balance of the equation, the same effects should occur with reference to stars and planets.
If all of the planets and the sun are running along, in near balance with changes in outlying fluxes upon the solar system, disruptions in the periodic patterns should be minimal, with much greater stability being found in the harmonic patterns in the interactions between the planets of the solar system, as a result milder climate with less wild extremes would dominate at times of stability.
Currently the magnetic poles of the sun are running ~12 degrees off of its vertical axes of rotation, with a period of rotation of 27.32 days, as a result the Earth and Moon themselves move above and below the ecliptic plane alternately, while the system barycenter scribes a smooth ellipse responding to the gravitational and tidal tugs of the outer planets as we pass them almost every 12 months plus a few days. The resultant periodic 27.32 day flux of the polarity of the solar wind as it passes the Earth creates and drives the declinational swings North and South in the two bodies, as a giant pulsed oscillator circuit, dampened by the tidal drag of the fluidity of the various parts of the Earth, small solid core, outer liquid core, fluid mantel, and fragmented floating crust, that is itself creeping along tectonically in response to the dance of the combination of the additions of the other planetary tidal, gravitational, and electromagnetic induction fluxes that keep the inner fluids warm.
The further off of vertical, and/or the stronger the total magnetic flux of the sun’s magnetic poles, the more energy available to be driven into the lunar declinational cycle balanced by the tidal dampening into the Earth, hence the greater the solar magnetic impulse input the greater the resultant tectonic turmoil, the more extreme the weather and climate. The weaker the magnetic fields of the sun relative to the near DC fields of the galactic background levels, and the more vertical the magnetic fields of the sun the less energy gets driven into the lunar declinational movement and resultant tidal dampening energy into the Earth.
As the spin axes and magnetic axes of the sun approach straight on alignment, the whole declinational drive component of the Moon orbital dynamic decreases, to maybe as little as a degrees either side of the ecliptic plane, changing to a more synergistic combination of the solar and lunar tidal effects at an angle of 23.5 +/_.5 referenced to the equator, keeping the atmospheric global circulation in the kind of high turbulence blocking pattern, sort of weather we have been having the past two years and the next two as well. When continued past the normal length of time (about 3 years on the down and up side) in the 18.6 year variation of the mechanism of transport of equatorial heat towards the poles, stalled in the most active section of atmospheric lunar tidal effects, coupled in sync to the solar tides as well, the long term trend then becomes a constant la nina, and an ice age sets in.
Just as in MRI scanning the initial pulsed spin flip is nearly instantaneous, and does not seem to affect the covalent bonds the atoms are part of, so maybe the solar magnetic orientation to polar axes of rotation, flip is hardly noticeable over 100 years or less, just as the wandering of the Earth’s magnetic field pole positions are hardly noticed by the public. The ongoing dampening of the tidal movement of the lunar declinational extent at culmination would regulate the dropping rate due to actual amount of tidal dampening load transferred to the Earth. As the declination off of the ecliptic plane drive energy lessens and becomes slowly coupled out by tidal inter action, and the Lunar orbital diameter expanded to compensate slightly. This would explain the rapid onset of ice ages, and then the re-flip to off axes solar magnetic polar alignment, renew the declinational driver system again and cause the pulsation type exit usually seen from ice ages.
The short term inter ice age, realistic application of these ideas is in the much more recent history (due to short instrument records) of the past three to five maybe (Ulric Lyons says 10 cycles works best because it = the 179.5 year cycle period.) Can be assembled in composite maps that use the 6558 day period of 240 declinational periods that shows analog synchronization of the inner planet harmonic effects on the weather, from just the past three cycles as seen on the daily maps here.
http://www.aerology.com/national.aspx
The problem left is that the outer planet have a set of harmonics of their own that induce the 179.5 years envelope on the 18.6 year mn cycle pattern that have in turn a finer 27.32 day oscillation imposed, so the complete long period of compounded modulation is as Ulric Lyons suggests 179.5 years long as the effects of the outer planetary returns driving the solar sunspot cycles due to SS Barycenter displacement due to Uranus Neptune synod conjunctions. The available data base gets extremely thin out ~180 year ago. Due to data limitations, I have so far stayed with just the last three cycles of 6558 days or ~17.95 years.
Tallbloke and several others on this blog are more concerned with the effects of the tidal and gravitational and maybe magnetic effects of the outer planets having an effect upon the sun via the displacement of the sun around the SS barycenter, which the inner planets seem to be bound to follow. I will leave that part to him to explain, I am more concerned with the inner planet harmonics. Below is but one illustration of how the Null hypothesis can be further defined.
On April 20th of 1993 we had the most recent synod conjunction of Neptune and Uranus, which the Earth passed on July 12th of 1993, presenting as an epic precipitation surge globally with heavy rains through the summer and massive flooding of several river system around the world. It is my contention that the increase in magnetic couplings through the polar magnetic field connections induces a homopolar generator charge increase at these times and a quick global discharge just after synod conjunction. The results of these increases in pole to equator charge increases drives positive ions off of the sea surface along the ITCZ, where by mutual static repulsion of the condensation nuclei inhibits cloud formation and precipitation, and at the same time allows more SW radiation to reach the tropical sea and land surfaces promoting rapid warming driving ENSO extremes, with the rapid precipitation that results on the global discharge side, post synod conjunction, also leaving clearer skies for additional warming after the flooding subsides.
The lunar declination phase of the 18.6 year mn cycle was in an increasing through 23.5 degree culmination angle at the same time, being in phase with the temperature increases. By early 2005 the declinational angle at culminations was at its peak extreme, and the distance between Uranus and Neptune was separating again to about 29 days apart August 8th of 2005 for synod of Earth and Neptune and September 1st of 2005 for synod conjunction of Earth and Uranus. The Southeast gulf coast was ravaged by Katrina and Rita as a direct result of these influences. Combining with the 27.32 day period lunar declinational tides culminations they rode in on, to produce the storm intensity that resulted.
As the outer planets Neptune and Uranus continued to separate and the declinational angle shifted past peak angle at culmination the resultant peak warming period shifted further into the late Summer and now is in the Fall in 2010. The reason I think the last season 2010 was so active but not as powerful in ACE production as 2005 was due to the addition of Jupiter in Synod conjunction on April 3rd in 2005 kicking things off, and on the 21st of September 2010 with Uranus on the same day, creating a late fast finish in 2010. But having a half hearted start of a season in 2010 as a result of the difference.
Over all the whole period of the close Neptune and Uranus synods in the mid to late summer allowed the extra clearing of clouds and resultant heating the last 15 years of the SST and ENSO intensity periods, CO2 just was in the air along for the ride. This is all part of the 60 year patterns in the weather cycles, and can be explained as such. Now that the outer planet synod conjunctions of the Earth with Neptune and Uranus are moving into the fall and early winter, we can expect them to produce the increased snowfall events and cold polar blasts being seen in both hemispheres.
Trying an experiment by using this natural periodicity of the repeating patterns of the composite effects of the inner planets and the Earth/Lunar/Solar 27.32 day harmonics as a natural analog showing a base length of the 6558 days repeated three times as an ongoing day to day forecast gives enough weight to the promise that natural variability is actually driving about 85% of the short term variability of the weather.
The longer cycles already identified with the progression of the Milankovitch Ice Ages orbital interactions, give me encouragement that the midterm length cycles associated with the outer planet Synod periods and possible effects on solar cycles will be fruitful as well. With all of the public grant funds going to the CO2 boondoggle, it is necessary that some funding be made available for the parts of the climate research endeavor that have been fruitful already, and form the basis of most of the accepted body of knowledge of how the null hypothesis works.
With the investigation of these methods of predicting the extreme effects of the weather patterns they produce, long range forecasts for both weather and climate will become possible. I am betting my life saving and the rest of the creative efforts of my life time on it.
The changes in the jet stream positions from the past three cycles in reference to this one, have shifted towards the equator about 200 miles as a result of the lower solar and geo-magnetic strength due to the current solar minimum, along with an additional 3 to 6 degrees of cooling bringing the freeze line down into the past precipitation patterns. Which has been resulting in the increased amount of snow in the Southern USA, for the past three years as well as the rest of the NH, that I do not have data for so cannot forecast at this time.

Eadler: “The shift in Westerlies has been shown by modeling to be a result of expanded cold air pockets in Siberia, which have warmed Canada and pushed polar air into the midwest of the US. This has shifted the prevailing Westerlies. This effect was predicted by Judah Cohen as a result of the warm water in the Arctic Ocean, which is thought to be an effect of Global Warming.”
—
Really you should learn about atmospheric circulation before quoting this claptrap…

Stephen Wilde says:
January 31, 2011 at 9:57 am
Reply; The natural ocean basin periods of oscillation are driven by the lunar tidal effects coupled with the outer planet synod passing modulations to develop the ENSO, SOI, PDO, NAO, etc. effects that everyone is so enamored with, as the internal forcings.
As long as the original drivers of the weather and climate are ignored and the focus is on their secondary effects, you/they will never get a good solution to the forecasting of the climate problem.
Please do not project the map that others are following onto my path, so far I am the only one to consistently forecast daily weather out YEARS in advance with a simple analog, beta testing has been profitable, and it is time for me to begin producing an improved model.
Richard Holle

sky, well Leroux’s patient work started with getting the African database. Hence the reason why the WMO at the time published his PhD and distributed it to all its members.

TomRude says:
January 31, 2011 at 10:22 am
Eadler: “The shift in Westerlies has been shown by modeling to be a result of expanded cold air pockets in Siberia, which have warmed Canada and pushed polar air into the midwest of the US. This has shifted the prevailing Westerlies. This effect was predicted by Judah Cohen as a result of the warm water in the Arctic Ocean, which is thought to be an effect of Global Warming.”
—
Really you should learn about atmospheric circulation before quoting this claptrap…
Mr Rude, what are your qualifications versus Judah Cohen’s?
He got his results using a weather model. He is a respected forecaster. He even predicted the results in advance, showing the location of the cold spot in Minnesota.
Can you supply any scientific information which contradicts his simulation and explanation of the results? If you can’t do this, you are talking through your hat.

Geoff Sharp says:
January 31, 2011 at 4:06 pm
Richard Holle says:
January 31, 2011 at 9:44 am
With such an inventive imagination perhaps your investments should be directed towards science fiction novels.
~
Me thinks Neptune and Urunas are busy enough. Their dipole position, tells us about the boundary layer, they are bound with. As you propagate outwards from the solar disk, layers of influence are produced.
We call Neptune and Urunas outerplanets for a good reason as the are more influenced by interstellar changes and influences.
Watch the video and read the NASA articles on what they have learned about outer planets and another similar system.

Dust Models Paint Alien’s View of Solar System
..Through gravitational effects called resonances, Neptune wrangles nearby particles into preferred orbits. This is what creates the clear zone near the planet as well as dust enhancements that precede and follow it around the sun.
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/solarsystem/features/dust-model.html
Warped Debris Disks Around Stars Are Blowin’ in the Wind08.28.09
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/universe/features/interstellar_wind.html
Hey Vuks got a holy grail, looks like a battering ram or focusing cone. HOw and where the cone is stoked dictates the reconnection mechanism with the sun. Models for dipolar reconnection one even showing a northern hemisphereic harmonic config showing the loss of reconnection in the southern hemisphere. I thought that last one pretty interesting. Also equatorial config model as well.
I can see an influence on solar cycle within this..Accretion, gains and losses, how it affects the layers of a solar system and the planets that orbit their particular layer.

If you scroll a bit further down in the pdf slides,
MHD SIMULATIONS OF THE
DISK DISK-STAR INTERACTION
http://www.iaus243.org/IMG/pdf/Romanova.pdf
We find another very interesting magnetic configuration of a star system reconnection – accretion model on page 43 called “Misaligned Dipole + Quadrupole.” This looks all to eerily familiar..

We know from the Voyagers that the heliopause near the dent region is moving in and out. Is that a horizontal piston, moving in and out out there. Might even be warping the whole HCS. Might even be a more warped response if your boundary layer is that of Neptune and Urunas on the shape of yur model.

One more thing for Vuks and Geoff, in the accretion-reconnection regime of layers and boundaries.
In the inner bounday layer of Saturn and Jupiter, tidal affects on layers propagating inwards to the inner reconnection solar layer above the corona and in the solar higher ionospheric like region of the solar disk.