It is still quite cold in the Arctic, with below normal air temperatures and sea surface temperatures surrounding the ice pack between around 2-4°C. Much of that has to do with meltwater. I’ve added this image to our new WUWT Sea Ice Page tonight.
Source: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/satellite/index.uk.php
But looking at another product from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) there’s an indication of even colder temperatures, now hitting the freezing line in the middle of the Arctic summer.
While this most certainly could be a temporary blip, it seems the temperature in the arctic above 80°N as calculated by DMI has steadily declined and hit 0°C a bit early (just past midway) in the Arctic melt season.
See the graph below:
Source: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Here’s the 3x magnified view of the top of the graph:
Much of the melt season so far has been below the green “normal climate” line. While it is just another data point (i.e. weather) , it is a curious and interesting development worth watching. The past few days melt has been accelerating, a bit, but with a dropping Arctic core temperature it would seem to suggest perhaps this is limited to some traditional melt zones for this time of year, such as near the Chukchi sea.
Look for more in WUWT Sea Ice News #15 this weekend.
h/t to WUWT reader phlogiston
Interesting, but in the big picture, the decline of Arctic sea ice extent seems pretty consistent:
Jan: -3.2% per decade.
Feb: -2.9% per decade.
Mar: -2.6% per decade.
Apr: -2.6% per decade.
May: -2.41% per decade.
Jun: -3.5% per decade.
Jul: -6.1% per decade.
Aug: -8.7% per decade.
Sep: -11.2% per decade.
Oct: -5.9% per decade.
Nov: -4.5% per decade.
Dec: -3.3% per decade.
None of those negative trends show any sign of changing, as far as I can tell.
Wait — the Arctic is *cold*? Has anyone told GISS, so they can stop killing all those poor, innocent, red pixels?
Temperatures are quite warm over the East Siberian Sea, which is where most of the melting is occurring now. We may see an increase in the rate of ice extent loss later this week.
Look at the NOAA forecast for both poles this winter. Bastardi has said:
http://pgosselin.wordpress.com/2010/07/08/noaa-forecasts-great-drastic-cooling/
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/glbT2mSea.gif
…and yet, despite all the candid observations noted above, despite all the rational, real time discussion and exploration of scientifically recorded fact….we have the Daily Telegraph publishing this only a short while ago…..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/7899939/World-on-course-for-hottest-year-since-1880.html
Time to crank up the “Truth Machine” a few further gears whilst the Institutional warmistas are on the ropes.
Icarus says: July 20, 2010 at 3:09 am
“Interesting, but in the big picture, the decline of Arctic sea ice extent seems pretty consistent”
8,000 years ago Toronto, Canada was covered by a one km thick slab of ice; one km is about twice the height of the CN tower.
Clearly the ice has been receding since that time, but has slowed its retreat in the last few hundred years.
A one km thick slab of ice covering all of Canada is just as normal and just as natural as fruit trees, grasses and furry woodland creatures on Elsmere Island.
It has all happened before and it will all happen again, it is normal, it is natural.
Warmer is better
PS.
Interesting, but in the big picture, the cycle of Arctic sea ice extent seems pretty consistent.
Joe Bastardi
MONDAY 11:30 PM
GLOBAL TEMPS GO BELOW LAST YEAR!
For the first time this year, the global temps have retreated below last years level.
REMEMBER WHERE YOU HEARD ABOUT GLOBAL COOLING.
For quite a while now, I have doing a lot to show how the models are now seeing what I started forecasting several months ago, as far as the La Nina and the coming global cooling. Well I see a former employee here is now blogging on AOL about the same thing.
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather
I looked at the latest forecast, and NCEP is forecasting above normal temperatures for the East Siberian Sea and Chukchi Sea for most of the next two weeks.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZqLo4VKgCE]
Andrew30: If only normal and natural factors were involved (i.e. no human influence), we would expect the continuation of a long and gentle decline in temperatures, but this is not what we see –
http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2009/images/Fig.final_11.jpg
There is no reasonable doubt that this anomalous and dramatic recent warming is due to human activity since the industrial revolution.
I’m a not-a-clue amateur here, but i managed to google this gif animation of the ice temperature according to DMI between 1952 and 2009:
http://www.warwickhughes.com/agri/arctic52.gif
I think zero degree C has not been hit this early between 1958 and 2009. As I watch the animation also my impression is that the summers of 72, 76, 78, 00, 05, 06 and 07 were “quite cold”.
Dave from the “Hot” North of Scotland
July 20, 2010 at 3:53 am
Interesting article from the Daily Telegraph. I wonder what Goddard’s take is on this:
“World on course for hottest year since 1880
Arctic ice cover – another critical yardstick of global warming – had also retreated more than ever before by July 1, putting it on track to shrink beyond its smallest area to date, in 2007.
I hope this becomes “snowfalls are just a thing of the past.”
Here’s the link to Daily Telegraph
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/7899939/World-on-course-for-hottest-year-since-1880.html
O/T:
From the following BBC news report they don’t back up the Global Warming claim, I wasn’t aware that there was any proof that global warming was causing a meltdown on the mountain.
Sherpas tackle Everest ‘death zone’ rubbish dump
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-10691316
“The team filmed its expedition before showing footage to the Nepalese Tourism Board, to illustrate how junk is becoming exposed as global warming causes snow to melt.”
(Correction: gif-animation starts at 1958, not 1952.)
I think it is worth noting that salt water has a lower freezing point then fresh water, that means somewhere below zero., minus 3-4C I belive it is. So the focus on zero degrees is misplaced.
At the same time, as we have seen, the ice does not melt due to an average temperature, but melt accrding to local temps, wind, sun, clouds, currents (as water has higher density, I would suspect that the temp of the seawater and currents play a greater role than say air temps).
Rgds
Troels
Global temperatures often go below the previous year, as a result of ocean circulation, the solar cycle and so on – i.e. natural interannual fluctuations which happen all the time. This is superimposed on the current anthropogenic warming trend of ~0.2°C per decade. You can easily see this short-term variability here.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/satellite/index.uk.php
Switch it to anomalies and suddenly goddard’s analysis doesn’t make sense. Why didn’t you show the anomaly map instead of the absolute temperature map. Is it because one shows warmth in the arctic and the other gives the impression of cooling?
Anthony, Steven,
Many factors have to be looked at to find out what is actually happening with the warming and cooling effects generated by the sun.
Density of molecules would inhibit more sunlight from travelling through than less densite molecules through refraction.
With sunlight, the further the object, the less molecules of sunlight concentrations as they are dispersed.
Tilting of sun’s axis would be extremely important to our planets position as with this planet, the equator would output more energy than if the sun was tilted slightly.
Studying rotation has shown how the different densities on this planets surface has generated the wobble that science has yet to figure out. The mechanics of rotation actually shows that planet and suns were infused with energy and the slowing of planet is the natural use of the energy and not the moon slowing the planet like science figures now due to the moons distruption of the atmosphere and ocean surface.
Mechanics is the last thing science wants to look at as it crosses too many areas of study and would interfere with the grants all these scientists are recieving.
Jimbo says:
July 20, 2010 at 4:04 am
Bastardi has nailed this all along.
I would have to say it is going to get colder.
correction, watts not goddard
If this is cooling, it can be caused by some extensive wind pattern. That means it could also warm up some more before continuing to drop.
Icarus says:
July 20, 2010 at 3:09 am
Interesting, but in the big picture, the decline of Arctic sea ice extent seems pretty consistent
It’s easy to talk about a “decline” when your starting point happens to be a time of relatively high extent. Say you’ve climbed a hill, and have started down. Now, technically, you would still be at a higher point than you were when you started, and technically, you could speak of an overall upward “trend”, if you wanted to deny the reality that you were, in fact going down the hill. I think they have pills for that.
Sorry to go off topic but there are two real warmist articles on the current Daily Telegraph site in the “Earth section”
“World on course for hottest year since 1880” Quotes from UEA and the Met office so no bias there then…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/7899939/World-on-course-for-hottest-year-since-1880.html
“Britain at risk of being left behind in low carbon future” conclusion … more taxes needed
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/7898979/Britain-at-risk-of-being-left-behind-in-low-carbon-future.html
No Northwest Passage For You!
I seem to recall lots of discussion last year about boats sailing through the Northwest Passage.
Has this stopped this year, or am I just missing the sailing of the flotillas?
Chuck Wiese says:
July 19, 2010 at 11:20 pm
Where is all that CO2 downwell radiation when you need it?? 😀
Good idea. That could make it colder. 🙂