It is still quite cold in the Arctic, with below normal air temperatures and sea surface temperatures surrounding the ice pack between around 2-4°C. Much of that has to do with meltwater. I’ve added this image to our new WUWT Sea Ice Page tonight.
Source: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/satellite/index.uk.php
But looking at another product from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) there’s an indication of even colder temperatures, now hitting the freezing line in the middle of the Arctic summer.
While this most certainly could be a temporary blip, it seems the temperature in the arctic above 80°N as calculated by DMI has steadily declined and hit 0°C a bit early (just past midway) in the Arctic melt season.
See the graph below:
Source: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Here’s the 3x magnified view of the top of the graph:
Much of the melt season so far has been below the green “normal climate” line. While it is just another data point (i.e. weather) , it is a curious and interesting development worth watching. The past few days melt has been accelerating, a bit, but with a dropping Arctic core temperature it would seem to suggest perhaps this is limited to some traditional melt zones for this time of year, such as near the Chukchi sea.
Look for more in WUWT Sea Ice News #15 this weekend.
h/t to WUWT reader phlogiston
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Hmmmm…
In the absence of heat ice tends to melt very slowly. This is going to be hard to explain. Watch for the big blank from MSM.
I think we should collect a lot of firewood this summer. If Bastardi is right, this winter will be very cold and snowy 🙂
I’ve noticed this, too. If temperature in the Arctic will decrease below 0°C before August, that would be an interesting development, indeed. Ice melt could practically stop prematurely.
As Pink Floyd used to whisper: “Set the Controls for the Heart of the Sun…”
Arctic is still science enigma .
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NFC1.htm
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/Arctic-factor.htm
Where is all that CO2 downwell radiation when you need it?? 😀
Hmmm…our friends at NSIDC say this on their current website posting for July 6, 2010:
“Average June ice extent was the lowest in the satellite data record, from 1979 to 2010. Arctic air temperatures were higher than normal, and Arctic sea ice continued to decline at a fast pace. June saw the return of the Arctic dipole anomaly, an atmospheric pressure pattern that contributed to the record sea ice loss in 2007.”
Like, WUWT?? Inland temps in Alaska were a bit higher than normal, but the Arctic seemed to be doing just fine, and judging by this latest data, should result in a nice consolidation of the ocean ice mass.
Just in time to cause a lot of red faces in many university offices, I might add! To quote Trenberth: “The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.”
Alexander Feht says: “…If temperature in the Arctic will decrease below 0°C before August, that would be an interesting development, indeed. Ice melt could practically stop prematurely.”
Very unlikely. About as likely as your glass of iced tea dropping below zero. Melting ice absorbs heat, lowering adjacent air/water temperatures. The blip could just be a temporary shift in radiative relative to convective heat transfer due to Arctic wind patterns or cloud cover.
Premature chill in the Arctic?
Due to the AO which would also account for, at least in part, temperatures in New York and elsewhere?
How does DMI’s data collection for sea-ice extent differ from the rest? It seems the only one that has taken a severe u-turn in the last few weeks..
I am somewhat concerned that this situation (if it continues) will affect the health and wellbeing of all those scientists who’s models contradict this trend. Once again AGW (as predicted) is becoming a health hazard.
Hopefully, the scientists will be able to manipulate, (oops i mean adjust) the temperature, in order to minimise the risks to the health of the overwhelming majority of scientists for whom, the science is settled.
Note to Dr Pachouri:
I sincerely hope that this trend is temporary but in the event that it persists, GET WELL SOON
The air temperature difference between 2 °C and 0 °C (or a summer average of 1 °C) will hardly affect the ice much. The differences are ten times bigger during the winter, and even then temperature is only one factor determining ice cover and thickness. The other main factors are wind and currents.
Interesting, in 2007 there was also a sudden dip in temperature around the same time as this one. WUWT?
Goes along with the recent happenings in S. America and Antarctica.
What do your instincts tell you? A big Cold One coming on?
Theres still a fair amount of ice to be lost in the East Siberian Sea and when it goes it normally goes quite quickly. Most other areas outside of the Arctic basin have either already lost their ice or at least lost as much as theyre likely too. The Arctic Basin doesnt normally lose ice as fast as outer areas.
I can see ice loss being fairly high for the coming week but will slow down again towards the end of the month.
have thay told the polar bears yet, I think thay would like to know
The Danish Meteorological Institute Polar Temperature graph in the right hand navbar used to give access to a very interesting comparator with previous years going back to the sixties. Since the new Sea Ice page was created we no longer have access to that and have to manually go to DMI to get it. Could someone take a look at fixing this?
REPLY: The link is available on the sea ice page, in links at the bottom there’s nothing to “fix”. But, you can also now click on the temp graph inside the sea ice page. – Anthony
Is Stephen Schneider dead?
http://www.noteviljustwrong.com/blog/general/464-stephen-schneiderdeath-of-an-unrepentant-hypocrite
Looks like it
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/19/AR2010071905108.html
REPLY: In questions like this, it is always useful to visit the front page of WUWT first and use the amazing tool called the scrollbar. – Anthony
Off topic news
NGO promotes ducks as solution to global warming, rice insufficiency
CAGAYAN DE ORO CITY—While the world’s leaders are scratching their heads and expensive think tanks wrack their brains trying to find answers to global warming and food security, a nongovernment organization here is propagating a solution that hit these two problems at one go, but has not talked much about its successes.
Instead, the Philippine Agrarian Reform Foundation for National Development (Parfund) Inc. is letting its ducks do all the “quacking.”
Through its Rice-Ducks Integrated Farming System (IRDFS), Parfund is slowly spreading the gospel that rural Filipino rice farmers can feed the nation with its staple diet and help save the planet from the effects of global warming.
“The Integrated Rice-Duck Farming System is a proven organic-farming technology that is being propagated by Parfund to improve rice-production performance and ensure rice self-sufficiency in the country,” said Jose Noel “Butch” Olano, Parfund executive director.
http://businessmirror.com.ph/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=27825:ngo-promotes-ducks-as-solution-to-global-warming-rice-insufficiency&catid=53:agri-commodities
?!?WHAT?!?
And meanwhile people are beiing killed by the cold in South Amerika, see: http://www.bluewin.ch/de/index.php/26,298668/Kältewelle_fordert_in_Südamerika_viele_Todesopfer/de/news/vermischtes/sda/
Very tragic global warming!
Please add this map of NHemi SAT from ESRL website:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/sfctmp_01.fnl.gif
The area with SAT (Surface Air Temperature) below freezing is nearly two times greater than it was several days before.
Regards
REPLY: Thanks, added to the Sea Ice Page – Anthony
Just reported on the evening news. Charlotte Pass in OZ had the third lowest reading since settlement of -20C. But it is only weather, sorry for the excitement.
regards
Welcome to the wonderful world of latent heat.
It was latent heat released by freezing ice, which caused the arctic temps during early last winter to stay relatively high until around soltice, when the real cold finally set in.
Now, it’s again the latent heat needed to melt the ice, which is responsible for cooler temps in the Arctic.
All this leads to one, and only one, viable conclusion: Substantial cooling has set in and will continue, as well as deepen, for a long time to come.
The temps in the northern Hemisphere will continue to drop not in a straight line, but in steps. But each new year will be a little colder than the year before, now – moderated by the storing and release of latent heat in the slowly growing arctic sea-ice cover.
Time to start knitting warm socks and pullovers, folks!
Once more me.
Two more maps would be of interest to WUWT readers. First is Jet Stream map
http://squall.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_norhem_00.gif
which clearly shows how continental heat air is reaching Arctic region.
The second map (two “submaps”) proves the first one and shows daily prevailing winds:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/WINDS/AVHRR/windsAVHRR_N_N15.html
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/WINDS/AVHRR/windsAVHRR_N_N16.html
What I suggest is to show not only resulting maps but causing factors as well.
There was a lot of discussions going here recently talking over the Arctic Sea Ice from nearly all points of view. It should find its presentation on the famous yet(?) “Sea Ice Page” page I think.
Any short descriptions linking the atmospheric and oceanic phenomena (plus NHemisphere indices) influencing present Arctic Sea Ice conditions would be advisable.
Best regards
All this is very interesting but it’s not what the models are telling us, so how can it be true?