I don’t know if this is a record or not for Christmas coverage, but it is certainly reminiscent of the winter of 1977-78 where we had similar bouts of cold and snow. About 99% of Canada has snow cover also, with some parts of the Pacific Coast excepted, and it appears that all of Canada’s Lakes are frozen as indicated by the “yellow ice” in the photo. Here is the latest (Updated for 12/25/09) from NOAA:
From the National Operational Hyrdologic Remote Sensing Center here is the satellite snow depth map and the hard data on coverage:
December 25, 2009
| Area Covered By Snow: | 63.0% |
| Area Covered Last Month: | 10.4% |
| Snow Depth | |
|---|---|
| Average: | 5.0 in |
| Minimum: | 0.0 in |
| Maximum: | 889.2 in |
| Std. Dev.: | 7.0 in |
| Snow Water Equivalent | |
| Average: | 0.9 in |
| Minimum: | 0.0 in |
| Maximum: | 437.5 in |
| Std. Dev.: | 1.5 in |
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=12&fd=23&fy=2007&sm=12&sd=25&sy=2009
sorry, here’s the map
rbateman (16:45:12) :
An interesting NOAA reference. thank you.
I suggest one should rely on UAH or RSS Lower Troposphere (LT) temperatures to make any assessment of relative global temperatures, and these satellite-based LT’s only exist since 1979.
Alternatively, one could try to use Surface Temperatures (ST) from Hadley or others, but would have to adjust for the warming bias in ST, which I have calculated (for Hadcrut3 vs UAH) to be ~0.07C per decade for the past three decades.
One could assume, with some uncertainty, that this ST warming bias correction can be applied to previous decades as well.
Ever notice that when we have record cold temperatures, that is “weather”, but when we have record warm spells, that is “climate change” or “catastrophic global warming”?
Remember the great 1998 El Nino scare (“Earth has a fever – we’re all gonna burn up!)?
Then Earth cooled rapidly, and that was just… “weather”.
The map must be off a little. Here in Southeast Michigan we only had rain. It melted most of the snow and ice from past weeks.
HMMMM! Knock on wood!
ShrNfr (17:09:45) :
> Ah yes, 1978. I remember it well. My snowblower was able to go about 15 feet before it blew a chain link to the auger in the “Blizard of 78″ in Boston.
Best storm in my memory – best drive in the snow, best (most dangerous) walk into work, best (only) slip and fall off a highway rock cut. From my point of view it can’t be improved on.
See http://wermenh.com/blizz78.html
———————
I’ve updated http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/ with links for all WUWT articles in December (so far) and notes on editing markup for WUWT comments. New title too since it has more than Tables of Contents.
Enjoy!
– Ric
Answering my own question from above…
“DirkH (15:54:14) :
[…] I would like to know the probability of a ray to get through all this CO2 containing atmosphere unscattered”
i found this article on WUWT from july:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/07/15/9373/
Funny. Whenever i manage to think of an intelligent question somebody has already published an answer.
Glenn-just last week our local NWS office in Pendelton,Or, was gave an extended
that made it sound like:”Get out the Sunscreen and Bermudas” Right.This seems to be the 70’s all over again….
Overall the SSTs are still quite high. As long as that continues the global temps are going to remain above average.
It will be interesting to see what happens when they start droppping.
This El Nino is not classic by any means. Peruvian current strong, PDO just not wanting to go positive, AO been in the tank, and the NAO saying negative. Maybe I missed some other O’s, but there are negatives against the positive 3.4 region. Keeps the pot nice and stirred up for some rather interesting weather. Probably helping keep the Sat anomalies from hitting the roof. Gotta love the Oldman upstairs. He knows how to keep hotheads humble to some extent, even in His weather/climate.(And that goes for both sides. Pride goeth before the fall, and everyone will get a taste that aren’t careful. We’ve seen that already.)
This decade(and the previous one) has been one long El Nino for the most part. But the reverse is coming down the pike. That’s just the way it is PERIOD!
Hope everyone had a good Christmas!
Glenn, with James Hansen predicting the warmest winter on record, I suspect that NOAA record WILL show what the NOAA scientists are predicting.
But really, the ice in the Canadian lakes is first year ice and besides it is all rotten
Allan M R MacRae (18:22:08) :
The NOAA page is simple enough for all to grasp. The Air temps and all those strata start jumbling around. I’m sure that’s what got those IPCC polyboffin all worked up and the MSM doing tropical raindances.
So, the only really hot anomaly right now is the unending halitosis of premature El Nino Alarms with limburger flavored jalapeno sauce on a sesame seed bun.
The MSM should take note to watch out for the brainy stuff, and stick to the basics to weigh out who’s explaining and who’s spinning yarn. Wouldn’t want to have a herd of reporters looking like Dan Rather’s Last Stand.
I could see God not liking Bush so he kinda roasted us but…
What does Obama have in common with Jimmy Carter that would make God freeze our butts off?
@ur momisugly Glenn The guys that make their living issuing forecasts for the people who trade futures have this as a cold winter in New England at a minimum. Unlike the guys who are at NOAA, these guys got to get it right or they get fired. I planned on a warm winter with the El Nino this year and ordered 3 tons of wood pellets to use for heating. (I also have backup circulating ng fired hot water to supplement stuff when it gets real cold). After I heard their forecast I got another 3 tons. I have gone through the better part of a ton already and it is not even Jan 1 yet.
NOAA tries hard, but there is no negative utility function for them if they screw up. Personally, I would tie their salary to the accuracy of their forecasts. Your compensation for the year goes down by X$multiplied by Abs(Tobs-Tpredicted) and Y$ multiplied by Abs(Precipobs-Precippredicted).
Betcha we would get more accurate long term forecasts. To make it more game theoretic you could do something like up Z$ when Abs(Tobs-Tpredicted) (Tobs-Tpredicted)<beta and down by X$ when it is over beta. Integrated over a given interval and then done. An escape clause for a volcano or asteroid hit has to be in there for fairness, but I think you get the idea.
This kind of game theoretic stuff is what the for fee forecasting services basically do. If you are real good you can charge more. If you are so-so you can't charge a lot. If your forecasts suck, you get fired. When you trade millions of dollars on commodities, you are merciless with the quality of forecasts. Getting left with a wad of fuel oil in storage (which costs you money) after a warm winter does really lousy things to your P&L.
If it is really cold here, (US) then it is slightly warmer somewhere else on the globe. The monthly average temperatures have some variation but normally on the order of ±0.4 C. So if we are a few degrees below normal for the month someone else is a few above normal. Green Christmas for us here in VA
Wally (20:30:00) :
If the Global Temperature is a constant, yes.
So, if we are in a warm climate, a warm anomaly will look hot, but a cool anomaly would never get past the long term baseline.
On the other hand, a warm anomaly in a cool climate won’t get higher than the long term climactic baseline, but a cool anomaly will make for something like a Little Ice Age.
If one does not have a firm grip on what the current baseline is, one is playing a very dangerous game when attempting to bet it all.
Light snow was falling in southern New Hampshire this evening, and it made a pretty ending to a peaceful Christmas day, on the quiet edge of a huge storm.
The storm in the center of the USA is a beauty. Even though it now seems it is past it’s peak, (and central pressure had risen from 985 to 990 mb last time I looked,) its swirl of clouds extends from Maine to Montana. The “moisture loops” are especially impressive, if you can get an animation for the last 48 hours.
Also, if you can get an animation of the surface temperatures for the past 48 hours, it is pretty incredible how much warmth this storm sucked up into its warm sector, and then gobbled up as the warm sector occluded.
There are times to drop all the politics and side-taking and blame-laying, and just marvel at what is. This is one of those times.
Not that it isn’t good to fight against “adjusted data,” and take a stand for Truth, but if you really feel Truth is a good thing then perhaps it is a good thing to leave the sewer of politics and just vacation in Truth. A vacation restores you. Once in a while it is good to just gaze at the clouds. In a way it is being as spiritual as a yogi, without the bother of having to breathe funny, and the pain in your knees from sitting cross-legged, and needing to go way up into the Himalayas and find yourself a cave.
I have a feeling we will all need such reinvigoration, in the months ahead, because politics is a dreary and somewhat disgusting avenue to walk, yet it is likely we’ll have to do it. We’ll have to take a stand for Truth (and also Justice and the American Way,) because such things are threatened.
If you take the time to just gaze at Truth, you’ll discover it is a restorative.
Of course, one reason I didn’t become a meteorologist was because I spent so much time studying clouds I flunked Algebra. However Truth had a hand in that. If Truth wanted me to be a meteorologist then the Truth would have had my seat closer to the blackboard and farther from the window. However that wasn’t the Truth, (which some call “fate,”) and the Truth is I am not a meteorologist. However I do know a thing or two about clouds.
One thing I know is that clouds are chaotic systems. However the study of chaos makes one aware of things called “Strange Attractors.” It’s a great pity we did not invest a tenth as much money in the study of “Strange Attractors” as we did in the fraud called “Climate Science,” because the truth of the matter is that, when you look at the beautifully organized storm in the center of the USA right now, you are seeing chaos create a “Strange Attractor.”
If you look at a still shot, you’ll notice the clouds are shaped a bit like the shell of a snail. It is interesting that the shell of a snail is another “Strange Attractor” which appeared out of the swirling chaos of evolution.
Science cannot yet explain how it is that such order can come out of chaos. The dismal fact of the matter is that, if you attempt to see things through Newton’s or even Einstein’s laws, order is highly unlikely. The sheer kinetic, frenetic hecticness of rebounding atoms tends to make order disintegrate into chaos. Chaos ought get worse and worse, but when you face facts and look at the Truth, you see beautiful organized swirls come out of chaos, (like the storm in the center of our country, or the galaxies springing from the Big Bang.)
There are some who look at the current state of my homeland’s American democracy and see only chaos, and feel the only way to achieve order is to abolish Truths, including those Truths my forefathers held to be self-evident. However such people have lost faith in Truth as a power which can restore, revive, refresh, and recreate.
A healthy democracy, where people truly behave as if “all men are created equal,” is a sort of “Strange Attractor” which appears over and over in the history of mankind’s chaotic behavior. It has no respect for those who may think they have the money and power.
Right now the storm in the center of the USA has all the power, but watch it over the next few days. It will continue on as a mere shadow of it’s former self.
Around 1480 Venice and the Ottoman Empire had all the money and power, because they controlled the spice trade. Spain and Portugal were little no-account nations on the very edge of civilization. However within a century the Pope had decreed the entire world was divided between Spain and Portugal. At that time England was a little no-account nation on the very edge of civilization, yet within a hundred more years England could make both Spain and Portugal tremble in their boots.
If you focus too much on money and power, you miss the Truth. What’s more, you may fall from money and power.
So what is the Truth?
Look at the clouds, and see for yourself.
Sightly OT (maybe)…Old Sol was spotless yesterday.
Correction…Old Sol was spotless today; not yesterday.
Wally (20:30:00) :
“If it is really cold here, (US) then it is slightly warmer somewhere else on the globe. The monthly average temperatures have some variation but normally on the order of ±0.4 C. So if we are a few degrees below normal for the month someone else is a few above normal. Green Christmas for us here in VA”
There HAS been regional “climate change” on the coast of VA over the past 40 years.
You mention the “green xmas” even though most of the state still has some snowcover (!). And this is from a record-breaking, pre-solstice snowfall.
True…the warming we have seen regionally cannot be explained totally by the oscillations of the AMO. Definitely warmer here.
However….you have to balance that against all-time snow records in OK City and the record “snowfalls” in Houston and the white Christmas Eve in Dallas.
And ETC.
Hmmmm. All time cold records.
Perhaps it is because the jet stream has shifted on a multi-decadal level. Certainly might mirror the possibility that the Gulf Stream seems to have shifted too.
Maybe? Maybe not. But things have changed.
But its not like there are not anomalous snowfall events this year so far in unexpected locations.
Something is going on and it is not business as usual.
We need to study the weather and figure out where it is taking us.
My take is: Fear the ice, not the fire.
Chris
Norfolk “No-Snow” Virginia, USA
Caleb (21:36:55) :
Light snow was falling in southern New Hampshire this evening, and it made a pretty ending to a peaceful Christmas day, on the quiet edge of a huge storm.
The storm in the center of the USA is a beauty. Even though it now seems it is past it’s peak, (and central pressure had risen from 985 to 990 mb last time I looked,) its swirl of clouds extends from Maine to Montana. The “moisture loops” are especially impressive, if you can get an animation for the last 48 hours.
It really is, Caleb. An upper level cyclone controlling the weather for the entire country. Fantastic.
Those moisture fetches that spiral in for 1000 to 2000 miles are nothing short of spectacular.
And this storm brought a record heavy snow burst to the big D!
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Caleb: If you focus too much on money and power, you miss the Truth. What’s more, you may fall from money and power.
So what is the Truth?
Look at the clouds, and see for yourself.
Tremendous post, Caleb. The entire post. I only quote a bit of it here but you are ON POINT.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Just thought that you folks in the north might like to know that it was 32 C for Christmas Day in Dunedin, NZ. The national high.
Last year it was half:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/25/half-of-the-usa-is-covered-in-snow/
This year it’s two thirds.
2010… 80% ? 😉
Glenn (17:23:40) :
Speaking of forecasts and El Ninos,
“Expected El Niño impacts during December 2009-February 2010 include…
Below-average snowfall and above-average temperatures are most likely across the northern tier of states (excluding New England), while below-average temperatures are favored for the southeastern states.”
Glenn,
In a typical Nino, that would be the case. The odd luck this year is that the arctic oscillation (AO) has hit record low December levels possibly due to a solar signal. The AO is highly correlated to the NAO signal, which promotes high latitude blocking and cold invasions into the USA and Europe. This is the first year ever recorded where we had a strong Nino AND severe blocking. It appears the AO is trumping the strong Nino at this time, and so any forecasts for pronounced warmth are likely doomed.
Tom
Most of the Hudson Bay took little more than a week to freeze over.