Guest post by Steve Goddard
As reported here two weeks ago, April 30 is the last safe date to recover explorers from the Arctic. The people who rescued Pen Hadow from the Arctic in May, 2003 said this :
“People are at risk – the ice breaks and it shouldn’t really happen. No one should expect to be picked up from there later than 30 April … Going to the Pole this time of the year is a bit stupid and you put a lot of people’s lives at risk.”
In today’s Catlin update they say:
“The ice team are positioned in the path of a huge storm. Pen reported this morning that winds are picking up, and the Ops team can see that over the next 36 hours the team will experience blizzard conditions with winds of up to 40 knots and a strong possibility of heavy snowfall.”
By the time the storm is over, they will have reached what has been described by the experts as the last safe date for recovery, both for them and for the rescuers. They are still 542 km from the pole, which is 82 days away at their average rate of travel so far.
What is the sensible thing for them to do when the delayed Twin Otter plane (hopefully) arrives later in the week?
Phil. (00:12:40) :
Phil,
Are you telling me that 2009 melt will surpass 2008 melt? Also, do you think Arctic ice is in a ‘death spiral’?
Alan the Brit (03:42:02) :
POI. Did you know, apparently the Arctic gets its name from the Greek word “arktos”, from my trusy 1925 Pocket English Dictionary, meaning, wait for it, “bear”!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Now not a lot of people know that! :-))
Good Michael Caine impression. 😉
It wasn’t a real bear though it was a mythological one, Zeus up to his tricks with the ladies again!
Dear Frank, I suppose you meant Klaus and not Havel. 😉 Havel is an alarmist of a sort. Still not quite sure who is your Roman.
Just Want Truth… (07:45:23) :
Phil. (00:12:40) :
Phil,
Are you telling me that 2009 melt will surpass 2008 melt? Also, do you think Arctic ice is in a ‘death spiral’?
I don’t see why that conclusion is drawn from my pointing out that last year there was 7m thick ice in one of the survey regions last March?
Given the strong outflow of MY ice through the Fram this year I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the 2009 melt comparable with the 2008 melt and maybe surpass it.
Strange thing, they are waiting now for 6 days,
“The Ice team have found a suitable runway (350m long x 100m wide x 100cm thick) and have spent the day preparing it in advance of the plane’s arrival later today.”
And the Total distance travelled is changing, how can that be?
Waiting for the resupply and travelling?
Phil. (09:15:45) :
Have you seen the graphs lately? Good luck with those hopes you have. You definitely need it.
JAXA
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
DMi
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
ROOS
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic
Catlin says it takes Pen Hadow 4 hours a day to drill the ice. Now they have stopped for some 6 days he can’t still be drilling, surely? Especially on 1000 calories. The polar Bears are probably hungry too. How quickly can one fire a gun with frozen fingers and a tricky safety catch?
Watching the almost 2 ton Walrus [Youtube] have its head nearly bitten off by a hungry Polar Bear would make me want a Gatling Gun, safety off! Plus lots of ammo!
Keep that gun handy Pen. You do have a gun?
Phil;-))
Thanks for that & makes sense!
AtB
Just Want Truth… (22:04:11) :
Phil. (09:15:45) :
Have you seen the graphs lately? Good luck with those hopes you have. You definitely need it.
What a lood of absolute tosh you write!
1. Have you thought that AMSRE from ijis may be on the new algorithm which will not jump at the beginning of june?
2. The variation in year to year variations from now until mid june are small.
and after mid june then the area STARTS to show the eventual minimum.
This is obvious from the AMSRE plots.
NB. I am making no prediction just stating that to make a prediction at this time is premature!!
Vinny (07:43:20) :
from APB:
“What is the sensible thing for them to do …?”
So far, I haven’t seen anything sensible out of this crew. Their methodologies are junk science at best, and their strategy sounds like something out of a sixth-grade science fair project.
Junk science – why? They seem to be using professional manual thickness measuring kit. They seem to be measuring close to ice ridges. They are making multiple measurements at different locations. Using this method I would assume an accuracy of much better than 10cm. This should be compared to the German plane giving proven inaccuracies of up to 1metre in 3metres and more generally 25cm.
Also what is their strategy for their science please as I have not seen it written down?
bill (04:34:47) :
Have a look–try to be unbiased in what you’ll be seeing :
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic
It’s ok to say 2009 is far behind 2008. And with all the extra cold we’ve been getting, the unexpected thickness of the ice,and with the sun still being so quiet, it will take a miracle for 2009 to surpass 2008. But who knows, maybe these flows Phil is talking about will carry that huge difference away, maybe that’s the miracle alarmists will be looking for…. 😉
Austin
“There is a point where physical decline hits an inflection point and mental capacity follows. I would not be surprised to see them die out there.”
If their mental capacity drops, bearing in mind how shambolic the whole thing has been from the start, we must be getting into negative territory!
Carlo (14:00:28) :
Strange thing, they are waiting now for 6 days,
“The Ice team have found a suitable runway (350m long x 100m wide x 100cm thick) and have spent the day preparing it in advance of the plane’s arrival later today.”
And the Total distance travelled is changing, how can that be?
Waiting for the resupply and travelling?
To paraphrase Galileo “E pur si muove” in this case it’s the ice that’s moving inexorably E.
The simplest solution is to airdrop a couple of kayaks and let them paddle the rest of the way. Make sure the young ladies have some bikinis so they can get a good tan. Don’t forget the sunscreen.