Guest post by Steve Goddard
As reported here two weeks ago, April 30 is the last safe date to recover explorers from the Arctic. The people who rescued Pen Hadow from the Arctic in May, 2003 said this :
“People are at risk – the ice breaks and it shouldn’t really happen. No one should expect to be picked up from there later than 30 April … Going to the Pole this time of the year is a bit stupid and you put a lot of people’s lives at risk.”
In today’s Catlin update they say:
“The ice team are positioned in the path of a huge storm. Pen reported this morning that winds are picking up, and the Ops team can see that over the next 36 hours the team will experience blizzard conditions with winds of up to 40 knots and a strong possibility of heavy snowfall.”
By the time the storm is over, they will have reached what has been described by the experts as the last safe date for recovery, both for them and for the rescuers. They are still 542 km from the pole, which is 82 days away at their average rate of travel so far.
What is the sensible thing for them to do when the delayed Twin Otter plane (hopefully) arrives later in the week?
Monarchy, shivers….
PaulM (13:09:56) :
The latest update says:
“Pen, Ann and Martin have now been patiently waiting at their runway strip for 5 days.”
And yet over the last 5 days they also claim to have moved 18km nearer the pole!
——————–
You know, that was a method that was tentatively used to get to the North Pole by early explorers. They would get as far as possible and get the boat to freeze up on the ice. They figures that since the ice are still moving, they would eventually get there. The early trials had the boats crushed and they then used boats with an egg-shaped hull so that the ship would get lifted as the ice froze. But even after being caught on ice for many years, I don’t think they ever made it there that way.
Guys (and gals):
WordPress is chopping the end off all these looooong URLs. Try using the TinyURL facility instead.
Thanks,
George M.
An interesting paper just from the title of it: Disproving AGW written by Dr. Leonard Weinstein. Have not yet read it, but thought I would post it for those who care to enjoy.
http://docs.google.com/Doc?id=dnc49xz_5gdnpxsdr&hl=en
Northern sea ice filtered plots are here
http://www.gpsl.net/climate/data/sea_ice/ijis-np-sea-ice-parallel-2009-04-28a.png
http://www.gpsl.net/climate/data/sea_ice/ijis-np-sea-ice-2009-04-028a.png
*rubbing hands with eager anticipation*
Will Prince Charles’s comments to the MSM about the success of the Catlain scientific expedition be even more stupid than Waxman’s recent quote.
Maybe just maybe Charlie boy will also see a photo opportunity flying the royal airliner to meet the Catlain crew upon their return from the ice.
Regarding the Arctic Bali Hai Cruise….
“The Catlin team deserves the Knucklehead award of the year.”
Looks to me like they are working to retire the Darwin awards.
I hope they don’t take any heroes with them.
Wow trying to survive on only 1000 calories per day in such cold temperatures would be really difficult – and dangerous! They better hope the weather clears and they are able to get supplies in quickly or else they are in serious danger.
If they run out of food, I wonder if they will choose the Donner Party option?
This trip is over. One cannot survive in those temps very long at 1000 Calories per day let alone begin a trek again after starving themselves.
Anthony is right, they need a rescue flight ASAP, not a resupply flight. Their Otter does not have the range without several refueling points and those are affected by the blizzard also.
It’s bad enough that these folks are completely off base but you have to ask why they would risk their lives to prove a flawed theory. Narcissism and ego projection has to be the answer. They are so driven to be right and project their own very personal importance for the cause of AGW that they are risking their lives? They may be remembered posthumously as just being very foolish.
I have been tracking their progress using my own spreadsheet. They moved 7.5 km at a heading of 354 degrees which is almost due north. Since they are camped, this means that the ice has moved this much in the past day.
The continuous kml data at http://www.solaradata.com/Solara.kml shows that they have moved another 6.3 km at at heading of 320 degrees since the last lat lon of 85° 11’ 36” N, 124° 02’ 29” W. The ice is moving.
Their batteries may also be running out along with their food, but this is speculation.
” They believe the world’s oceans are becoming more acidic because of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and they are predicting the end result could be a massive extinction of sea life.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/8022194.stm ”
For the oceans to become MORE acidic, wouldn’t they have to at least BE acidic first?
The oceans are alkaline. If anything, increased CO2 capture would make them LESS alkaline, moving them closer to being neutral (at pH 7). But it’s apparently not scary enough to say that the oceans might be moving closer to neutral… no, better for the propaganda campaign to conjure up mental images of vats of bubbling acid eating away at the frail ocean.
Gimme a break! The studies can’t even agree as to whether higher dissolved CO2 leads to less calcification in various marine life, or more calcification!
Last year we had the kayak guy – this year it’s the Caitlin team. These people are giving British explorers a bad name! As a Briton I can only apologise, but seeing how the once proudly sceptical scientific institution, The Royal Society, is now heavily politicised I can’t promise that this will be the last stupid exploration with pre-conceived ideas and aims.
I’ll be the one to say it: I hope they die so that their deaths will draw attention to the truth of this issue. If they succeed, then it will be just another propaganda piece. With their deaths, they can bring actual change by allowing the world to industrialize and bring energy, clean water, and all sorts of modern, life-saving services to the poor across the globe.
I know it sounds harsh, but their goal is to, unintentionally perhaps, do the opposite of that and is a tremendous irony that we should all consider.
(this piece written in the form of “A Modest Proposal” type satire, but is definitely a relevant talking point.
Kenn Borek Air is reportedly going to evacuate these adventurers. All in a day’s work for Borek – I hope it goes well. They’ll need to adjust their altimeter though – that ice is a bit thicker than expected…
Here is some of the Borek story:
Tuesday, 24 April 2001
Dr Ronald S Shemenski, doctor at the Amundsen Scott–South Pole station is the only physician among 50 researchers working at that research station. He recently suffered a gall bladder attack and has been diagnosed with the potentially life–threatening condition known as pancreatitis.
An eight–seat, twin–engine plane fitted with skis for landing gear is now scheduled to fly as early as Wednesday from the Rothera research station on the Antarctic peninsula and pick up the 59–year–old doctor. The plane arrived at Rothera last week after a flight from Punta Arenas, Chile, accompanied by a backup aircraft.
Flights to the South Pole station are normally halted from late February until November because of the extreme winter cold and darkness. But the rescuers are worried that Shemenski’s condition could worsen in the coming months, when an airlift out of the South Pole would be virtually impossible.
“The wind’s blowing like hell. We’re getting reduced visibility and blowing snow. If the winds calm down and there’s less cloud cover, we’ll get better visibility,” said Steve Penikett, general manager of Kenn Borek Air Ltd, the Canadian airline company leading the evacuation for the doctor.
Aviation experts say this would be the first time a plane has attempted a landing at the South Pole during the polar winter, where temperatures are now 75 degrees (–59 Celsius) below zero – 143 (–97 Celsius) below with the wind chill – and skies are nearly pitch–black some 20 hours of the day.
*******************
P.S. They made it- the first time it’s ever been done.
Stan,
you forgot to mention the next British team on their way to the pole:
– 1 x physiotherapist
– 1 x landscape gardener
– 1 x skipper
“As well as drawing attention to green travel by avoiding planes, they plan to take air temperature, wind speed and snow depth measurements”.
All above data I can get live from several web sites with a couple of clicks. And of course they are dragging 100 kg of supplies on sledges.
I guess the next UK expedition will include:
– 1 x pub landlord
– 1 x aromatherapist
– 1 x lorry driver
They could drag a some sort of measurement instrument on the ice as well. Thermometer?
RE: Chemist (16:48:18)
Although I understand the sentiment let’s not wish for anyone to shuffle off this mortal coil unnecessarily even if spoken satirically.
Unlike those in the green movement who wish for massive depopulation by any means I value all human life, even those that appear foolish. Who knows one day they may change.
Kind Regards
Michael
Why would anyone wish for bad things to happen to the Catlin Crew? They obviously believe very strongly in what they are doing, and are suffering immensely for their beliefs.
Not everyone has the presence of mind to question authority.
The question was asked about why they use 1979-2000 as the base line for their average. They answer that question by saying that to do so would create a moving average which would confuse people. Ya right.
At least they will not catch the Mexican Swine flu up there.
Down to 1000 calories a day in that hardship area.
Are there any dietitians out who can give us a precis diagnosis of their health predicament?
While the team have been resting and waiting resupply for 5 days now, I thought I’d track the location and distances from the website.
28/4 midday: 85deg 7′ 34″N, 123deg 57′ 42″ W, dist travelled=382.25, distance to pole=542km, avg daily distance=6.59
29/4 midday: 85deg 11′ 36″N, 124deg 2′ 29″ W, dist travelled=388.9, distance to pole=535.6km, avg daily distance=6.6
So they’re not travelling, yet moved 6.4km closer to the pole, which is faster than the daily average. Is that just drifting ice causing this or something else? Anyone else been tracking positions?
Unfortunately I’ve only started looking at the position from yesterday, but I’ll continue now!
The 3 Icekateers are in deep trouble.
If the storm behaves like those around here, it will stall.
The email I received from Caitlin Exp. stated that the 3 were fully aware of the risks, and so it seems Exp. HQ is good with that.
I just watched Ann’s latest video, 04/28, and for the first time I felt true compassion for these misguided people. She’s got real pluck and believes in her cause – “to provide knowledge to the world”.
Curiously, she says that she doesn’t know why (given the ‘torture’ she’s endured) she doesn’t quit. Then she reflects and says that she doesn’t want to teach her kids to be quitters when the going gets rough.
Seems to me her kids would be better off with their mum at home, not risking making them orphans by indulging a fantasy that her torture will save the planet.
On the subject of idiots and carbon dioxide, this is classic:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUKTRE53R1PO20090428
So CO2 really is dangerous – if you are stupid enough to freeze it and then put it in an airtight container!
Obviously, the Catlin team’s measurements show that the ice is so thick, it will be perfectly safe to wait until June to leave the Arctic. Onward! Excelsior!
“…Pen Hadow, by the faithful hound,
Half-buried in the snow was found,
Still grasping in his hand of ice
That banner with the strange device:
Cee-Oh-Two, Bad!”
(Apologies to Longfellow)
Seriously, may they all return in good physical health. In good mental health would be way too much to ask for.