Guest post by Steve Goddard
As reported here two weeks ago, April 30 is the last safe date to recover explorers from the Arctic. The people who rescued Pen Hadow from the Arctic in May, 2003 said this :
“People are at risk – the ice breaks and it shouldn’t really happen. No one should expect to be picked up from there later than 30 April … Going to the Pole this time of the year is a bit stupid and you put a lot of people’s lives at risk.”
In today’s Catlin update they say:
“The ice team are positioned in the path of a huge storm. Pen reported this morning that winds are picking up, and the Ops team can see that over the next 36 hours the team will experience blizzard conditions with winds of up to 40 knots and a strong possibility of heavy snowfall.”
By the time the storm is over, they will have reached what has been described by the experts as the last safe date for recovery, both for them and for the rescuers. They are still 542 km from the pole, which is 82 days away at their average rate of travel so far.
What is the sensible thing for them to do when the delayed Twin Otter plane (hopefully) arrives later in the week?
Keith (10:43:43) :
I also find it funny that they have kept changing the goal posts on this trip.
Initial starting point was supposed to be 80N, 140W, which would have put them right in the middle of the Beaufort Gyre (home of those playful, cuddly polar bears from the AIT video), in the midst of what has historically been an area dominated by first year ice.
Then they actually started close to 130W, so as to be “traversing through an area with more multi-year ice” even though this is still part of the Gyre, and the satellite images projected this area to still be predominantly first year ice.
They have now drift East more than 7 degrees, meaning they have traveled further East than North in this trip. Basically, they ignored the known ice drift pattern of the currents in the Gyre.
The Gyre’s currents rotate in a clockwise circle, taking the ice pack above it to the East and South, pushing the floes against the Northern Canadian coastline and breaking up the pack in the process. If they would just sit still, they would end up in Alert in a couple of months
Fine except they are not in the gyre! Sitting tight would likely take them out via the Fram Strait where they could be picked up by boat (like the Russian station NP-36 which is ahead of them). Here’s the current drift map with their approximate position on it (X). Rather than ignoring the drift they are making good use of it.
http://i302.photobucket.com/albums/nn107/Sprintstar400/Drift-1.jpg
I know this is “gallows humor” as our Teleprompter in Chief likes to use, but I have to point out that if they did die from exposure up there I think it would be extremely difficult to spin that outcome into a pro-AGW stance.
“They should get out before ice extent goes above the 1979-2000 mean.”
I’m supprised there hasn’t been any “improvemnts” made to the data/methodology
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
Couldn’t access the site on Sunday. I did wonder
They are down to the hard tack:
“Pen, Ann and Martin have now been patiently waiting at their runway strip for 5 days. This is a frustrating for the team. The bad weather must pass before the resupply plane can come in with the food and fuel the team need to progress north.
On a normal sledging day the team would consume up to 6000 calories. However, after studying the weather charts, a long delay for this resupply was anticipated and the team have now slashed their ration intake to 1000 calories per day, enabling them to last for a further 7 days”
Makes you wonder what they are hauling on those 100kg sledges. They can’t even eat the dogs.
This point may have been raised already re this chart: http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent.png. The melt rate looks to be fairly similar from year to year, as does the re-freaze rate, although this is a small time frame. Therefore the summer is not long enough to melt all the ice. To melt all the ice the maximum extent would need to reduce to around 8 million square kilometeres, or the summer melt would have to be extraordinarily rapid.
Brian (10:38:31) :
I have made a translation of the article.
Please send a copy to the NSIDC, the Catlin Team, Obama etc. and have mercy for the Polar Bears.
http://www.radiobremen.de/wissen/nachrichten/wissenawipolararktis100.html
Translation from German to English by Ron de Haan
Surprising results
Polar Ice thicker than expected
Research Aircraft Polar 5 in Bremerhaven.
The Research aircraft Polar 5 ended it’s latest Arctic Expedition today in Canada.
During this flight the researchers measured the actual condition of the Arctic Ice at the North Pole during which operation they flew over areas where no aircraft went before.
The result: the Polar Ic was much thicker than expected.
Under normal circumstances polar ice will reach a thickness of two meters after two years. “In this case however, ice with a thickness of up to four meters was measured”, according to the speaker of the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Ocean Research.
The thick ice conditions contradict the recent warming of the Arctic Ocean waters.
Besides the thickness of the ice, the composition and quality of the air was researched.
The researchers used a laser to measure the extend of pollution caused by emissions from the Industrial countries
The coming weeks will be used to evaluate the data.
About twenty scientists from the USA, Canada, Italy and Germany participated on this expedition.
End of article.
No doubt the reported blizzard is a result of Global Warming generating undue and unseasonal precipitation. Those poor people, caught in the vicious pincers of AGW. I hope they make it out alive and sell their data to the highest bidder.
Stephen Skinner (11:34:48) :
There is a certainty in this point of view that raises suspicions considering the nature of the ice cracks as shown in the photo. The Antarctic is moving further into Winter and getting colder by the day. What looks convincingly like structural failure is not even considered and does not even appear to have been explored?
It certainly has been and I have given references to it recently. Have you considered why the structural failure occurs? Thinning of the ice and separation from undersea pinning points are factors.
So Australia has landed an Airbus on the this ice shelf; http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/175767 and here is a video of a C17 landing on the same ice: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exR0-NSsM44&feature=PlayList&p=6B305E6C69C8FEFC&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=64
I sometimes wonder whether all the physical effort used to study the poles might be bringing about the very changes that that effort is trying to find.
Different place by a few thousand miles.
I can’t let such an inaccurate statement stand.
They are spelled “Mai Tais”.
Indiana Bones (11:31:35) :
There’s a photo today of Pen Hadow with a 12 foot ice drill in hand. Apparently the “unexpected lack of multi-year ice” has come to an end. And I found this quote from the Catlin site interesting:
“There’s no question that the Catlin Arctic Survey’s manual measuring techniques have the capacity to provide the first large scale direct measurements of ice thickness in the High Arctic,” says Seymour Laxon, from the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling at University College London. “Drilling holes might be the most basic method, but it’s also the most fundamental.”
Obviously Mr. Laxon has never heard of the Polar 5 Expedition that has just returned data questioning the Catlin claims.
Apparently they haven’t come across as thick ice as the Catlin expedition, surprising considering they focussed on areas where the thickest multiyear ice is (2 out of three areas).
I guess every religion needs its martyrs.
They are brought back and during debrief reveal that they are now skeptical of the causes of “climate change”. Prince Charles hears this from afar (those ears aren’t just for looks, you know), and scrambles to find a way to shuffle the three converted explorers into obscurity, claiming they must be quarantined due to “unknown pathogens”, or the like. A press conference is held and at the time Charles is waxing eloquent on how alarming the data is, Hadow bursts forth from behind the curtain shouting “LIES, ALL LIES, I’M TELLING YOU,…” His frostbitten fingers, blue and molting, and the facial bandages giving him a phantom countenance, all combine so you know he is telling the truth, ……………. ——————-Hey, a guy can hope, can’t he?
Maybe the Navy can send a submarine up to pick them up.
From the Catlin website I see that Prince Charles ‘for the sake of our children and grandchildren, prays that we heed the findings of the Catlin Arctic Survey’, and can only commend this project to us. Hmm they haven’t finished yet – their findings will be patchy indeed and probably have no credibility in the eyes of those of us not already brainwashed by AGW lunacy. Perhaps he has the help of Mystic Meg or some other soothsayer in his recommendation?
I take great pleasure in walking to my village store to buy the Sunday Telegraph each week so that I can read something sensible on the topic – the latest update by Christopher Booker – who also directed me to this site – Thanks Chris & Anthony!!
A comment on Steven Goddard (11:11:23) : “They should get out before ice extent goes above the 1979-2000 Mean” http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries
If you take the NSIDC data from the posted .txt files of all 30 years of Arctic and Antarctic monthly ice area data (~730 data points for both poles combined), here is what you get:
An absolutely flat trend line for GLOBAL ice over the entire 30 years (since November 1978) 0% per decade, every decade. Smoke that one Al Gore.
The Antarctic has faithfully offset any cyclic melting up north and some times vice-versa (such as years when the south pole actually was below average, but the north made up for it).
…and as I always chirp: why does the NSIDC keep throwing out the 2001-2008 data when calculating the average, as if 1979-2000 is a sacred reference marker ? That means they ignore 30% of the data points.
I think the Catlin folks have a few more weeks before they need to leave…seems like there is plenty of ice up north for the landing of a plane for a late spring rescue.
Steven G’s link regarding CO2 causing ocean acidification and sea life extinction:
I believe CO2 concentration has been much higher in past eras, so was there sea life extintion back then? I do not think so. Do these scientists not realize this or do they just ignore it? I wish I could contact them and ask.
The Darwin Awards might have some prime candidates.
While hands on science has many benefits, satellites might have been safer for measuring the thickness of the ice. Submarines would also have been a better choice.
To go down in history as dying for a belief in human caused global warming would be a really foolish accomplishment for the Catlin Survey.
Having lived in harsh winter conditions up in Edmonton in the 1970’s when it was frequently -30c to -45c for months at a time I learned to respect Nature’s fury of cold. But then these “scientists” of the Catlin Survey “believe” it’s warming up North… all those red colors on the computer generated maps must be having them think that they were headed to Costa Rica or some place actually warm rather than deadly cold.
Their stupidity is only exceeded by their irresponsible actions putting the lives of others, those that will attempt to save them, in danger. Criminal charges, of negligent homicide, should be brought against them should anyone perish (including in their own team). As they are likely within Canadian territory should a death result this outcome could occur.
In many places in Canada if you put yourself in danger in the wilderness and needed to be rescued you have to pay the full costs of the rescue.
They also warn us about going out onto the ice during winter. Sheesh any Canadian kid knows you risk a lot going on the ice that has water underneath it…
And for what? A couple of ice measurements that can just as easily be taken by satellite? Whacked in the head.
Sorry, I’m for smart science not science experiments that cost lives.
I would still go with the assumption that they got out when the biometrics stopped being updated in march. All they need now is a blizzard to hide their fake return/departure and they don’t have to admit defeat. They can also move out of the cosy log cabin in the Canadian mountains and back to the waiting media.
The latest update says:
“Pen, Ann and Martin have now been patiently waiting at their runway strip for 5 days.”
And yet over the last 5 days they also claim to have moved 18km nearer the pole!
They will be rescued by one of Prince Charles submarines!
Ecotretas
Not quite sure why the remarks by a carrier from a past trip — with no relationship to Catlin — are considered to be especially pertinent (even if everything the man says makes sense, which it does).
As many here know, I interviewed the Catlin director of communications a couple of weeks ago, and he said for the record that they had signed a contract with their air carrier for a final pickup date of May 25th.
The article is here:
http://talkingabouttheweather.wordpress.com/2009/04/09/205/
I completely concur that lives are being needlessly risked.
How do we evaluate the so-far anecdotal evidence of Arctic ice thinning from the Catlin team as compared with the presumably high quality data from the Germans?
That ice they’ve hunkered down on must really be moving on some powerful currents. They’ve managed to drift north another 6.65 km in one day.
So, suppose they tough it out and keep on trying for the pole. In the remaining 40 days, they’d have to average over 13 km each and every remaining day to reach their destination. That’s twice what they’ve managed to do so far in the first 60 days. Plus, they’ll probably have to add in an extra resupply flight in another 20 days. They have everything working against them, including a healthy dose of common sense.
They’ll never make it to the pole; they’ll be lucky to make it to 100 days. Let’s not have any martyrs to this fantasy cause. Hop aboard the resupply flight, take as much as you can with you and leave the rest behind before you risk any lives in this misbegotten adventure.
Steve (11:54:19) :
I wonder if they drilled holes in the ice of the plane runway to check the tickness and add a few more data point. For the runway to be flat, it must also be 1st year ice.
I think the pilot of the rescue aeroplane should have the only say in when they are lifted off the ice. He needs a margin of safety both in terms of weather and ice condition. Frankly if he has to rely on the three stooges to decide if the landing area is acceptable maybe he should just drop them a lifeboat and then Pen Hadow can do a “Shackleton” return. Some time in the next two years.
Or the Royal Navy can pop up and waste million of UK Taxpayers money on a Nuclear Sub rescue. Better still the Prince of Wails can use some of his surplus cash to fund their return. No prizes for the Arctic Heroes return I trust? Just Catlin bullsh*t to entertain us……….