Guest post by Steven Goddard
Click for a larger map – ice extent overlay provided by Catlin KML file, annotated map by Anthony Watts from data provided by the Catlin Arctic Survey
According to the people who rescued Pen Hadow from his earlier polar near-misadventure in 2003, the latest safe date for recovering people from the North Pole is April 30. The team is currently 683 km away from the pole, which means that they would need to cover 32km per day – an increase of 5X over their average rate so far. That might prove difficult with an exhausted, hypothermic, frostbitten team walking over broken ice and dragging heavy equipment at -34C.
May 28, 2003
Steve Penikett, of Kenn Borek Air, based in Calgary, which completed the mission, said: “I wish it hadn’t taken place at this time of the year. This is the latest we have ever done a pick-up. Landing on the North Pole at this time of the year is not the brightest thing people can do because of the weather and ice conditions.
“People are at risk – the ice breaks and it shouldn’t really happen. No one should expect to be picked up from there later than 30 April … Going to the Pole this time of the year is a bit stupid and you put a lot of people’s lives at risk. If you are going to put yourself into a spot like this … it really does need to be thought through.”
h/t to Pkatt for finding this information. More from Anthony and The Times:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article1136134.ece
May 26, 2003
Polar Pen waits for new airlift as temperature falls
THE temperature at the North Pole has plummeted to minus 25C as the explorer Pen Hadow ekes out his meagre food rations waiting for clouds to clear so he can be airlifted back to civilisation.
After one attempt to pick him up failed, a new plan has been hatched to improve the chances of a successful recovery by aircraft in worsening Arctic weather conditions. Visibility has diminished so far at Hadow’s base camp at Eureka in Canada that pilots could not take off to fly to the pole even if it were safe to land.
As of today, the Catlin web site is showing
| Total distance travelled | 241.13 | km |
|---|---|---|
| Average daily distance | 5.88 | km |
| Estimated distance to North Pole | 683.39 | km |
| Time on ICE | 41 | days |
This is interesting because they also say :
As we approach the half way point of the expedition, the Ice Team are currently just 10 miles below the 85°N line of latitude. During the time Pen, Ann and Martin have been on expedition, the ice has been particularly dynamic, with refrozen leads and huge pressure ridges experienced on a daily basis. The team have managed to navigate their way around open water, and so far have not had to don their immersion suits and swim.
In this next stage of the expedition, we are starting to see the temperature rise from its recent -35C to -45C, thereby allowing the team to focus on something other than sheer survival. However, from satellite pictures we receive in the Ops Room, we can see that once the team cross the 85th degree of latitude, the condition of the ice deteriorates rapidly. Large fissures of open water running east to west for several hundred miles currently scar the ice imagery. So, whilst on the one hand the weather conditions should start to improve, on the other hand the team will now face the new challenge of navigating stretches of open water. So, it is with immersion suits and flotation devices ready that the next phase of the expedition begins.
They are only a little more than 1/4th of the way to the North Pole. Does this imply that they are not planning on completing their North Pole trek?
Will the 2009 ASMR-E Sea Ice Extent fall, or will it cross over 2008 and 2003 by the end of April?
Mike
If we want to save polar bears then we need build a dam across the Bering Straits to block the warm Pacific water from entering.
Just kidding Anthony, but this might be cheaper then CO2 taxes.
If they need several hours of boiling water in the morning to heat their batteries and several hours of cooking in the evening for their evening meal, how much time each day are they walking? Have they mentioned how long they spend preparing breakfast?
bill (17:02:45) :
GREAT LINK Bill!
Thank you!!
Has anyone else noticed the lack of Pro AGW comment on the Catlin Threads?
They seem to be avoiding the topic like the plague.
George Gillan (18:41:06) :
“However, from satellite pictures we receive in the Ops Room, we can see that once the team cross the 85th degree of latitude, the condition of the ice deteriorates rapidly. Large fissures of open water running east to west for several hundred miles currently scar the ice imagery.”
Is this true?
Check out this, particularly at 500m scale, top left.
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?2009101/crefl2_143.A2009101143500-2009101143959.4km.jpg
Phil… I cannot see any fissures of open water. Ice dunes only… 🙂
Phil. (17:31:16) :
George Gillan (18:41:06) :
“However, from satellite pictures we receive in the Ops Room, we can see that once the team cross the 85th degree of latitude, the condition of the ice deteriorates rapidly. Large fissures of open water running east to west for several hundred miles currently scar the ice imagery.”
Is this true?
Check out this, particularly at 500m scale, top left.
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?2009101/crefl2_143.A2009101143500-2009101143959.4km.jpg
I think you are in the wrong place. Overlay the red grid box on the globe with
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/route_globe.aspx
Looks to me like Catlin would be somewhere to the right and down from the top left. With all the clouds it’s hard to tell if these fractures are open water or mostly ice filled, but open water without cloud cover would show up as black. There doesn’t appear to be any remarkable increase in fractures in the area for this time of year, though.
The bottom middle of this map looks like the area where they started from
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?2009101/crefl2_143.A2009101144000-2009101144459.500m.jpg
No.
Large fissures of open water
How does that happen at -35deg, or is it simply the movement of the ice temporarily exposing water that will shortly freeze?
I enjoy this web site for the alternative view it brings to the debate (which is not over). However, I hope you will forgive me for mentioning that your attention upon the fate of Catlin Arctic Survey Team seems “off mission.” It may be getting a little bit macabre.
Wayne Conrad (09:32:17),
Is attending to the Catlin Survey “off mission”?
Those who would engage in any significant struggle meaningfully & successfully, will fight the fight that is in front of them … as opposed to some other fight that they might prefer to fight, i.e., one that is more seemly, dignified, or worthy (by some preconceived but irrelevant and ulitmately diverting sensibility).
If it’s ranked Red Coats with muskets, then that’s what it is (regardless how quaint it sounds today). If it’s terrorists merged invisibly with passerby on the sidewalk – deal with it (not something else). If it’s the Soviets, it’s the Soviets; if it’s Hugo Chavev and Pakistan, there ya go.
The Catlin Survey is a Public Relations maneuver, with overtones of a Trojan Horse. This isn’t a group of 3 testing themselves against Nature. It’s a Hollywood movie set, recording footage for a narrative aiming to win friends & influence enemies by the 10s of millions. With a message that many here oppose categorically.
Their message is that industrial civilization should be dismantled, here & now, that capitalism should be ham-strung and left to founder in the ditch. Those (nearly all the citizenry) who happen to depend on these system – through no ‘fault’ of their own … well, ain’t that just too bad.
All the members of the Catlin Survey donned their armor and hoisted their weapons, marched out onto their ersatz movie set with full deliberation and aforethought. If the action gets a little rough … I would not be the slightest bit surprised.
The Catlin Survey should continue to receive critical scrutiny.
They need to stop. If this were my expedition, we would give up. There comes a point where a good expedition leader decides that throwing away lives needlessly is immoral.
James P (09:05:30) :
Large fissures of open water
How does that happen at -35deg, or is it simply the movement of the ice temporarily exposing water that will shortly freeze?
Yes the ice opens up forming leads which at this time of year freeze over. However that ice is inches thick rather than feet thick so it might as well be open water if you’re trying to cross it.
This has to be in line for the most deserved Darwin Award of all times.
http://www.darwinawards.com/