Guest post by Steven Goddard
Click for a larger map – ice extent overlay provided by Catlin KML file, annotated map by Anthony Watts from data provided by the Catlin Arctic Survey
According to the people who rescued Pen Hadow from his earlier polar near-misadventure in 2003, the latest safe date for recovering people from the North Pole is April 30. The team is currently 683 km away from the pole, which means that they would need to cover 32km per day – an increase of 5X over their average rate so far. That might prove difficult with an exhausted, hypothermic, frostbitten team walking over broken ice and dragging heavy equipment at -34C.
May 28, 2003
Steve Penikett, of Kenn Borek Air, based in Calgary, which completed the mission, said: “I wish it hadn’t taken place at this time of the year. This is the latest we have ever done a pick-up. Landing on the North Pole at this time of the year is not the brightest thing people can do because of the weather and ice conditions.
“People are at risk – the ice breaks and it shouldn’t really happen. No one should expect to be picked up from there later than 30 April … Going to the Pole this time of the year is a bit stupid and you put a lot of people’s lives at risk. If you are going to put yourself into a spot like this … it really does need to be thought through.”
h/t to Pkatt for finding this information. More from Anthony and The Times:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article1136134.ece
May 26, 2003
Polar Pen waits for new airlift as temperature falls
THE temperature at the North Pole has plummeted to minus 25C as the explorer Pen Hadow ekes out his meagre food rations waiting for clouds to clear so he can be airlifted back to civilisation.
After one attempt to pick him up failed, a new plan has been hatched to improve the chances of a successful recovery by aircraft in worsening Arctic weather conditions. Visibility has diminished so far at Hadow’s base camp at Eureka in Canada that pilots could not take off to fly to the pole even if it were safe to land.
As of today, the Catlin web site is showing
| Total distance travelled | 241.13 | km |
|---|---|---|
| Average daily distance | 5.88 | km |
| Estimated distance to North Pole | 683.39 | km |
| Time on ICE | 41 | days |
This is interesting because they also say :
As we approach the half way point of the expedition, the Ice Team are currently just 10 miles below the 85°N line of latitude. During the time Pen, Ann and Martin have been on expedition, the ice has been particularly dynamic, with refrozen leads and huge pressure ridges experienced on a daily basis. The team have managed to navigate their way around open water, and so far have not had to don their immersion suits and swim.
In this next stage of the expedition, we are starting to see the temperature rise from its recent -35C to -45C, thereby allowing the team to focus on something other than sheer survival. However, from satellite pictures we receive in the Ops Room, we can see that once the team cross the 85th degree of latitude, the condition of the ice deteriorates rapidly. Large fissures of open water running east to west for several hundred miles currently scar the ice imagery. So, whilst on the one hand the weather conditions should start to improve, on the other hand the team will now face the new challenge of navigating stretches of open water. So, it is with immersion suits and flotation devices ready that the next phase of the expedition begins.
They are only a little more than 1/4th of the way to the North Pole. Does this imply that they are not planning on completing their North Pole trek?
M White (03:26:38) :
“For the UK and much of western Europe temperatures are likely to be near average”
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/creating/monthsahead/seasonal/2009/summer.html
Issued 31 March
I checked a similar seasonal forecast from met.no (Meteorological Institute) here in Norway (known to be rater AGW friendly). http://retro.met.no/sesongvarsler/index.html
Google and I cooperated in translating it into English: “Seasonal prediction for temperature in the period April 2009 – June 2009 shows temperatures around normal for the entire country. There is a slight tendency to a negative anomaly for the middle parts of Scandinavia, while there is a tendency towards slightly higher temperatures than normal in the North-east Norway. ‘Normal’ as we are comparing with is for the period 1961-1990. This period was somewhat colder than the last few decades have been. This means that the upcoming three-month period is expected to be slightly colder than average for the last few years. It is important to note that the values shown on the map are means over three months. So it says nothing about the values the individual months in the period. For example, a month should be warmer than normal, the next colder, while the third can be normal.”
I would say this is interesting, as they explain that they expect the coming few months will be “slightly colder than average” and at the same time they stress that the reference period 1961-1990 “was somewhat colder than the last few decades have been”.
Guess this is high season in the Arctic.
http://thethreepoles.com/blog/?paged=5
“Lonnie – Team Leader – sent this dispatch:
Today [5th March] we departed Resolute Bay at about 8:30 EST (Eastern Standard Time) in a turbine DC3 aircraft – a remnant of WWII still commonly in use in remote locations.
We landed on Eureka at the weather station about 1 hour 40 minutes later to meet a waiting Twin Otter aircraft piloted by one of the finest pilots in the Arctic, Troy of Kenn Borek Air. ”
Think Kenn Borek Air is quite busy at the moment.
http://www.borekair.com/index.php?cat=gallery
B Kerr (04:26:21) :
Shades of Scott and Amundsen. This seems more and more like Sam Branson’s arctic kayak stunt of last year. Well thought out expeditions are making this group look like a Monty Python skit. The only problem is that this group will use the excuse that they were stopped by “thin ice”.
BarryW (05:43:25) :
“The only problem is that this group will use the excuse that they were stopped by “thin ice”.”
I take your point the media will say that they were stopped by thin ice caused by run away global warming.
Yet the other groups that are heading to the North Pole are not being stopped by thin ice, in fact the ice appears to be very good and they are skiing.
1. John Huston and Tyler Fish (USA)
2. Lonnie Dupre, guide, (USA), Max Chaya (Lebanon) and Stuart Smith (USA)
3. Keith Heger (USA) and Sebastian Copeland (France/USA)
“Day 36 – Mile Wide Lead, 4/6
Posted by: vnorthpole09 in Untagged on Apr 07, 2009
Date: April 6, 2009
Location: N86° 30.177′ W074 57.139′
Time Traveled: 10 hours
Distance Traveled: 9.7 nautical miles
AM Temperature: -22°F
PM Temperature: -20°F
sunny all day but hazy, light undefined cloud cover 210 nautical miles to North Pole”
Joe Miner (19:44:04) :
Maybe a contest is in order, guess the end date to this farce.
And another contest to guess the name of the inevitable made-for-TV movie starring Valerie Bertinelli as Ann Daniels.
Barry W. In case you missed it a previously posted Monte Python skit showing British humour at it best:
“in a turbine DC3 aircraft”
A jet Dakota??
Was it dated April 1st??
bill:
Who are all those contributors that ‘continually wish death/loss of limbs?’ [emphasis on “continually.”]
Or did you just make that up for dramatic effect?
These people were very unprepared. They have a pre-conceived agenda. Their minds were made up well before they started. They repeatedly engage in fraudulent claims, then make up pathetic excuses when they’re caught. They are no more competent than the Three Stooges hanging wall paper, and many commenters have said they should get out while the getting’s good.
But continually wishing them death and loss of limbs?? Who is saying that?
.
[And we’re still waiting for a credible explanation for why we can not see any condensed breath, when Hadow is outside and speaking to us at minus 40°. Maybe you could tell us why that is.]
Regarding the open water and fissures, are there strong currents/tides in these? I can’t imagine their pace is going to be any quicker with an immersion suit on, much less dragging all the equipment in flotation devices. Can anyone else here picture how this will work on the water? Did they bring their own boat ramp to get all the heavy equipment into and out of the water, or are they just going to walk around until they find a nice beach area to offload? When they say fissures it makes me picture some significant dropoff from the ice to the water. I hope they have a crane in their equipment set which can lift their junk up out of the water.
Thing is they may die before the “thin ice” ego kills-get them out.
As far as I know,human sacrifice in Europe ended when Christianity
displaced the druids.Now in the name of the Profit and Gaia?…
Things we do for publicity sometime bite us in the Arse….
B Kerr (06:02:12) :
BarryW (05:43:25) :
Yet the other groups that are heading to the North Pole are not being stopped by thin ice, in fact the ice appears to be very good and they are skiing.
This group appears to be having similar problems to the Catlin group.
“We are experimenting drying out different pieces of gear which are icy with condensation.
Stuart is presently skiing with his parka stretched over his sled and if it dries sufficiently we will try this with our sleeping bags.
Today we encountered a few more leads, but nothing as big as the other day. On one lead both Stuart and Lonnie stepped through some unconsolidated ice getting one foot wet, but they quickly recovered.”
“On the wider lead we were able to find ice that covered most of the lead, but not all of it. For the remaining 35 feet or so, we used a combination of dry suit and catamaraning our sleds to get across. This provided quite a bit of excitement, but hopefully we won’t see too many more!”
“We encountered big pans of ice followed by short bouts with zones of intense rubble, which take a lot of time and energy to overcome.”
“Despite the unusual conditions, we progressed past several open leads which we had to detour around. These are the first significant open water leads that we have encountered. One lead in particular took almost 2 hours to get around.”
Can we have any hope that the data these people are collecting has not or will not be tweaked by Hansen and the Government?
Speaking as an ‘Evil denier’ one can only hope that the Catlin expedition gets pulled off the ice soon – for their own safety. Watching three people voluntarily(?) freeze to death for an unproveable premise has the air of a freak show.
jack mosevich
That utube is great, I never laughed so hard! LOL
Sandy (06:33:48) :
I’m no airplane historian, but I think I understand what you’re saying and what the answer is.
The DC3 originally came, of course, with piston engines. However, fans of the plane refuse to let them retire and among the many updates are turboprop engines. They weigh so much less that the cargo capacity is significantly increased.
Steven Goddard (05:39:05) :
It’s wrapping with no content:
How much did you pay the Met for that?
Compare that with the Kotzbach/Gray hurricane forecast (which is also calling for a near normal Atlantic season).
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2009/april2009/apr2009.pdf
bill (03:27:02) :
It seems “some what over the top” for contributors to this blog to continually wish death/loss of limbs on these people who at least are making manual measurements over 200km of ice, which no buoy has managed.
I receive biometric data, analyze those data according to the present scientific knowledge and emit my conclusions. If they die or no, it’s not of my incumbency; simply, I see that those data are not real, are incongruous and, according to those data, they may already be dead. How would you interpret an internal human body’s temperature of 33 °C (Pen’s core temperature), if the human body dies when its temperature drops down to 35 °C?
Appologies posted on wrong thread:
bill (06:37:27) :
ralph ellis (05:29:21) :
If the thickness of Arctic ice were really the Global problem that these people make out, the US navy could do the measurements in a couple of weeks – from below.
To surface a sub in the Arctic, the boat needs to measure the thickness of the ice (presumably by sonar, or perhaps radar). If they have this kind of capacity, they could traverse much of the entire Arctic sea in a few weeks and accurately measure the entire damn area
http://www.damocles-eu.org/research/A_large_pool_of_freshwater_building_up_in_the_Arctic.shtml
Recent observations of Arctic Ocean outflow in the Fram Strait suggest that freshwater is piling up in the Arctic Ocean. A change in wind direction could release the largest amount of freshwater through Fram Strait ever recorded.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas
Causes of the Younger Dryas
The prevailing theory holds that the Younger Dryas was caused by a significant reduction or shutdown of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to a sudden influx of fresh water from Lake Agassiz and deglaciation in North America.[12] The global climate would then have become locked into the new state until freezing removed the fresh water “lid” from the north Atlantic Ocean. This theory does not explain why South America cooled first.
Why doesn’t the navy publish their thickness records if they have them – I have not seen recent results?
Bill
Appologies posted on wrong thread
bill (06:48:32) :
Jack Green (05:36:56) :
This is how the Catlin group should have conducted their study.
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/2003Reports.html
!!!!!!!!hang about!!!!!!!!! from the log
5/7 – Helo Ops – Twin Otter Hydro at station 5, problems with winch gearbox/motor, but successfully complete station. Repair winch at night.
5/8 – Helo Ops – Twin Otter Hydro Station 6 – Twin Otter makes afternoon evening flight to deploy fuel cache
5/9 – Helo departs – Twin Otter CTD -Hydro at Station 1 (North Pole) and Station 2 (60 miles south). Stops at fuel cache coming and going, arrive home at midnight, pack all night.
5/10- Finish pallet load and fly to Edmonton via Eureka, Resolute, Cambridge Bay, Yellowknife
So these people have forced the pilots of kenn borek air (and others) to fly where they should not, well into the melt season. Despicable!
Bill
Apologies posted on wrog thread
bill (08:04:02) : Your comment is awaiting moderation
Smokey (06:37:40) :
Who are all those contributors that ‘continually wish death/loss of limbs?’ [emphasis on “continually.”]
the comment referred to contributors plural. ie. there are continual references made by many contributors not just one contributor.
OK here are some of the nasty comments. Cannot be bothered looking for others (one I remember hoped they would loose their legs)
& some may have been pulled or snipped.
mojo (07:19:03) :
Even people who do foolish things do not deserve to die.
Since when? Ever hear the phrase “Hold my beer and watch THIS!” ?
Mike Lorrey (00:00:29) :
While I would like to hope they come off the ice alive and in one piece, frankly given the damage they and their kind are doing for the sake of an agenda, I don’t.
Jack (04:29:43) :
Stupid is as stupid does.
Or in this case, ~snip~ idiots. At least they didn’t force a well prepared guide to die with them.
Ethan (23:46:43) :
I hope they don’t give up. Imagine the headlines…People trying to prove the Pole is warming up er freeze to death! Rumours of AGW proved to be codswallop.
Oh yes ..well worth the cost. Freeze you [snip]s!
April E. Coggins (21:23:39) :
I hate the part of myself that looks forward to the demise of stupidity
philincalifornia (20:16:05) :
Don’t die Pen. It’s not worth it. If you do, the Guardian, the inbred pseudoscientist Prince, and the BBC will deny and/or cover up that you and your ill-fated expedition ever existed.
But we won’t, ha ha ha ha
Robert Wood (15:29:13) :
These people expected to be warm in the Arctic winter????
Cold-bloodilly, I say, let them live or die; it’s their choice, I don’t care for these worthless nitwits. They are fools; allow Darwin his due.
Adolfo Giurfa (11:05:30) :
If some of these guys dies, I am sure his or her death would be utilized by “The Prophet” himself for his cause.
Steve in SC (10:33:07) :
They are idiots pure and simple.
Perhaps they will reap the benefits of their folly.
My sympathies are extremely limited.
Bill
REPLY: Bill can you maybe learn to make shorter/not dups posts? Quite a bit of recent posting you are doing. – Anthony
“..If the thickness of Arctic ice were really the Global problem that these people make out, the US navy could do the measurements in a couple of weeks – from below..”
They’re British – they should ask the Royal Navy to do it for them. As you say, it can’t be difficult – it’s a simple navigation exercise for a couple of hunter-killers, perhaps with a specialist sonar device mounted on the conning tower.
I suspect, however, that a sensible expedition would neither give them the publicity nor the answer that they are looking for…
” The team have managed to navigate their way around open water, and so far have not had to don their immersion suits and swim.
However, from satellite pictures we receive in the Ops Room, we can see that once the team cross the 85th degree of latitude, the condition of the ice deteriorates rapidly. Large fissures of open water running east to west for several hundred miles currently scar the ice imagery. So, whilst on the one hand the weather conditions should start to improve, on the other hand the team will now face the new challenge of navigating stretches of open water. So, it is with immersion suits and flotation devices ready that the next phase of the expedition begins. ”
The preceding post does not seem to be found on the Catlan site any longer. Could it be that they have been notified that the satellite view shows NO broken ice or open water between them and the pole? Someone please correct me here if I am missing something. On April 23, I am presenting a talk on global warming fraud, and I plan to use this quote, along with a blow-up of the 4/9/09 cryosphere satellite photo I am a graduate student and my Professor is a vehement AGW proponent (and very sharp) and I do not want to get my keister shot off in front of my peers. Please comment, and if you have any good ideas for me to add to my presentation, let me know. I am already pointing out the recent rash of “the ice is melting even faster than expected” articles.
BTW, I told him in class Thursday that the Antarctic ice sheet is increasing in mass, and he responded “You must be reading different stuff than I am.”
Hopefully, I have read this man correctly, and he will not penalize me academically for challenging his beloved beliefs.
Speaking of polar bears:
If I’m not mistaken the team is British and the Brits have more or less given up the right to own guns. So I’m just wondering if the team has a plan for the possibility of an encounter with a polar bear with a bad attitude or a good appetite.
Sandy,
“in a turbine DC3 aircraft”
A jet Dakota??
Was it dated April 1st??
There are actually turbo prop DC3s around, they replace the piston engines, but since the engines are quite a bit longer, they have to add a section to the fuselage to put the GC back where it belongs. It is an FAA approved modification, not done in somebody’s hanger way up in Canada. It increases the payload, range and reliability quite a bit.
On submarines, everyone is encouraged to take the basic diver-training course, and to then expand into as many specialties and get as wide a range of diversified practice as possible.
As a boat prepares to surface either through the ice or in a lead in the Arctic icepack, all the divers onboard are milling around excitedly, dressed in their diving gear (or skivvies, waiting their turn), reviewing the various exercises, maneuvers and operations they might get a chance to take formal training in, or gain practice with.
There are a lot of complicated aspects to swimming and diving in the ice. It is by no means obvious that swimming across leads or from floe to floe could be relied upon as a means to help maintain expeditionary progress. In some situations, yes, but in many others, no. Not by ‘swimming’. Even highly ice-experienced Navy SEAL special forces, and even more experienced divers/swimmers based in the Antarctic, are quite restricted & limited in what they can achieve in the way of cross-pack mobility.
No, what Pen Hadow and the Catlin expedition need to get across inconvenient open water is not some type of special swim-suit, but rather a small inflatable raft. Or, a nifty inflatable skirt that goes around a tub-shell designed toboggan, converting it & all their gear into a small ferry. Even a tiny internal combustion or electric motor & prop would be an enormous asset – quite possibly essential.
This is what the high-north maritime Natives do, to travel on iffy ice: they just load their gear into a lightweight boat and scoot it across the ice & snow. Come slush or ponds or open leads, they jump in & paddle. Large leads (miles across, often), they fire up the Evinrude.
Swimming is a poor, slow, inadequate way to make progress … but boating is far faster than walking, far easier than dragging a toboggan, and allows taking more gear/supplies. The Vikings & Natives flipped the boat over and used it for a house.
My guess will be, the special swim gear that Hadow has used before, and that the Catlin crew have with them, is in fact nothing but a “survival suit”, a version of the bright-orange emergency garb we are all familiar with. Presenting the suit as a means to help attain the goal of the North Pole sounds like glamorizing the need to avoid getting wet wading in slush & surface water – which could be fatal. There are hilarious staged survival-suit swim-competitions, which exploit how clumsy & inefficient these insulated floatation devices are to actually try ‘swimming’ in.
The Twin Otter servicing the Catlin group on skiis, also comes mounted on floats. If excessive open water becomes a show-stopper for the Survey, that’s certainly not a problem for the Otter. (It’s called the Otter, because it’s amphibious.)
The ‘criticism’ directed at Pen Hadow by the ‘rescuer’ should be taken with a grain of salt. By all means, when the BBC gives the expeditionary support-company a free world-wide advertising, they will make clear that there are limits to the services that can be delivered, and that activities such as Hadow chooses have real risks.
But discourage others categorically from emulating Hadow? Flinch at the risks to themselves? Doubtful. People who fly Twin Otters out onto the Arctic Ocean are doing what they love, and their main concern is finding ways to continue doing it. They are professional risk-takers who, like Hadow, made their peace with the downside & risk long ago. These are aviators like the fraternity who service climbers on Mt. McKinley: They don’t want fools creating problems up on the mountain, but they definitely want the industry to continue. And even with the best-prepared climbers and polar trekkers, there will still be the risks … and occasional losses.
Why aren’t they just dropping supplies to the trekkers? Isn’t that more normal & practical in these circumstances, than landing? Pick-ups, too, can be done without landing. Only to insert or extract people is it really necessary to land, eh?