Guest post by Steven Goddard
Click for a larger map – ice extent overlay provided by Catlin KML file, annotated map by Anthony Watts from data provided by the Catlin Arctic Survey
According to the people who rescued Pen Hadow from his earlier polar near-misadventure in 2003, the latest safe date for recovering people from the North Pole is April 30. The team is currently 683 km away from the pole, which means that they would need to cover 32km per day – an increase of 5X over their average rate so far. That might prove difficult with an exhausted, hypothermic, frostbitten team walking over broken ice and dragging heavy equipment at -34C.
May 28, 2003
Steve Penikett, of Kenn Borek Air, based in Calgary, which completed the mission, said: “I wish it hadn’t taken place at this time of the year. This is the latest we have ever done a pick-up. Landing on the North Pole at this time of the year is not the brightest thing people can do because of the weather and ice conditions.
“People are at risk – the ice breaks and it shouldn’t really happen. No one should expect to be picked up from there later than 30 April … Going to the Pole this time of the year is a bit stupid and you put a lot of people’s lives at risk. If you are going to put yourself into a spot like this … it really does need to be thought through.”
h/t to Pkatt for finding this information. More from Anthony and The Times:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article1136134.ece
May 26, 2003
Polar Pen waits for new airlift as temperature falls
THE temperature at the North Pole has plummeted to minus 25C as the explorer Pen Hadow ekes out his meagre food rations waiting for clouds to clear so he can be airlifted back to civilisation.
After one attempt to pick him up failed, a new plan has been hatched to improve the chances of a successful recovery by aircraft in worsening Arctic weather conditions. Visibility has diminished so far at Hadow’s base camp at Eureka in Canada that pilots could not take off to fly to the pole even if it were safe to land.
As of today, the Catlin web site is showing
| Total distance travelled | 241.13 | km |
|---|---|---|
| Average daily distance | 5.88 | km |
| Estimated distance to North Pole | 683.39 | km |
| Time on ICE | 41 | days |
This is interesting because they also say :
As we approach the half way point of the expedition, the Ice Team are currently just 10 miles below the 85°N line of latitude. During the time Pen, Ann and Martin have been on expedition, the ice has been particularly dynamic, with refrozen leads and huge pressure ridges experienced on a daily basis. The team have managed to navigate their way around open water, and so far have not had to don their immersion suits and swim.
In this next stage of the expedition, we are starting to see the temperature rise from its recent -35C to -45C, thereby allowing the team to focus on something other than sheer survival. However, from satellite pictures we receive in the Ops Room, we can see that once the team cross the 85th degree of latitude, the condition of the ice deteriorates rapidly. Large fissures of open water running east to west for several hundred miles currently scar the ice imagery. So, whilst on the one hand the weather conditions should start to improve, on the other hand the team will now face the new challenge of navigating stretches of open water. So, it is with immersion suits and flotation devices ready that the next phase of the expedition begins.
They are only a little more than 1/4th of the way to the North Pole. Does this imply that they are not planning on completing their North Pole trek?
“Can the Catlin Arctic Survey Team Cover 683 km in the Next 21 Days?”
I don’t think they can even do basic math.
“As we approach the half way point of the expedition, the Ice Team are currently just 10 miles below the 85°N line of latitude.”
Total distance shown travelled as of today is 241.13 km, with distance to North Pole remaining at 683.39 km.
Using either “a thousand kilometres” claimed route or using the result of adding the two figures above isn’t nearly “halfway”, rather around a quarter of the way.
But perhaps “approaching halfway” to the author is like being almost halfway to the moon when one stands on the couch.
I sent the following email to Catlin.
Someone please advise me if I have made an error.
“I think there may be a mistake in your latest info.
You say that the team are just 10 miles below the 85 degree
latitude; yet you give their latest position as 83 degrees
51 49.(let`s say 52 minutes).
1 degree of latitude = 60 nms therefore they should be 68
nms from the 85 degree latitude.”
“Ego is a very dangerous thing when lives are at stake.”
Come on. This is Evel Knievel jumping over the Snake River. The whole thing has been planned to fail from the start. Mission abandoned due to “unprecedented” perilously thin ice and open water.
wattsupwiththat (19:17:42) :
Oh, I’m certain they’ll make it, Pen has already stated publicly that “he cannot afford to fail” /sarc
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hnm6QA1av0WvxKQFkkoNH4kZTEqQ
From the AFP story: “[…] Hadow is the only person to have trekked solo and unsupported from Canada to the North Pole, […] ”
Well, if you state enough conditions you can always be the first or only one to do something. He is for sure not the only person to trek “solo and unsupported” to the North Pole.
Norwegian Børge Ousland started from Cape Arktichesky in Northern Siberia 2. March 1994 and arrived at the North Pole 52 days later, 22. April.
http://www.ousland.no/about.html
Of course, this does not really compare to Amundsen or Nansen 100 years ago, but the point is that the impression that Hadow is somehow unique or first, is incorrect.
Reply: Here is the correct about link ~ charles the moderator
AEGeneral (21:31:15) :
Assuming Somali pirates don’t move in, kidnap them & demand $2M each. It’s only a matter of time before “experts” link global warming to the spike in aggression of renegade pirates on the high seas.
Global average temperature vs. number of pirates
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/0/04/FSM_Pirates.png
Steven Goddard (20:37:49) :
They better hope for global warming after they get off the ice. Another English summer like the last two, and they won’t get their body temperature back to normal before autumn.
That’s why they are in a hurry. The agenda can’t wait another 2 years, else it will be blown by the cold hard facts of increasing worldwide cold. Not even greedy politicians would be able to laud it with a straight face.
They bought themselves a brief respite by blaming record cold on erratic climate caused by AGW. This survey is just another circus act to distract attention.
What they really want to do is to blow up a bunch of volcanoes and load the atmosphere with sunblocking chemicals to cover thier tracks.
So what if 2-3 billion people die.
They get to rule the world they saved.
Anybody notice how little of the Arctic the icekateers are claiming is frozen? The pictures real intent is propaganda itself.
Contrast the Caitlin’s picture showing minimal ice extent to reality:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/
“”Steven Goddard (20:37:49) :
They better hope for global warming after they get off the ice. Another English summer like the last two, and they won’t get their body temperature back to normal before autumn.””
What makes you think that they will be in England this summer?
Why not ignore the advice from WWF and take a low budget flight to Spain?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/2625521/Ryanair-boss-in-row-with-explorer-Pen-Hadow-over-emergency-landing.html
This guy is a jinx.
Importantly they all got down safe; good.
Ther article has a nice little quote from Pen, “It was incredibly cold. ”
Were in sunny warm Scotland, and it is today a lovely day, we received the long range MET weather prediction for summer 2009.
Ready?
It will be average!
Yes average rain, average temperature, average amount of sun and average average. Lots of average.
Mind you that will not stop the BBC weather girls saying “temperatures are WELL above average for this time of year”. Sure temperatures get up to 16C/61F.
What we don’t want to happen is for false pride to put the Catlin team in more serious risk.
The science has failed, the technology clearly cannot withstand the climate or the terrain.
The trek has failed, they are not covering the necessary distance per day to get to the pole.
The public exercise to inform has failed because the Catlin team have been found to have misled people over the data that has been collected and also the data that has been published.
Pen Hadow has a history of taking unnecessary risks, the last that is required is for the team leader to pursue a glorious failure.
What is required now is an independent and expert assessment of this whole expedition, for all we are getting is a spin operation by the team.
Can it meet its objectives without putting the team at serious risk?
If not, when does it end?
It’s like watching a train crash in s_l_o_w m_o_t_i_o_n. I don’t want to look but can’t help myself.
Barry Foster (23:38:10) :
Here’s a good one:
Professor Jacqueline McGlade
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2498516.0.0.php
“THE WORLD is heading for an unparalleled climate catastrophe unless rich and poor nations agree drastic cuts in pollution in just the next few months, the head of the European Environment Agency (EEA) is warning.
Even if all the current promises to cut greenhouse gas emissions are honoured, the world will still see global temperatures rise by an average of four degrees centigrade by the end of the century, according to Professor Jacqueline McGlade, the EEA executive director.”
“and so far have not had to don their immersion suits and swim. ”
I keep reading this line from their releases and wonder out loud “are they serious?” They are steadily complaining about -30 and below temps, apparent hypothermia and frostbite, and they (or somebody) is actually going to go in the water to drag equipment across open leads, in immersion suits? Were they planning on getting out of the water after the swim?
If their circumstances are as perilous as they continue to describe, these are humans with a physiological capacity unlike any who have gone before. Or not…
@Steven Goddard (20:37:49) :
“[…] Speaking of which, The Met Office is a little late on their summer forecast. Last year they made it on April 3. Perhaps they are being a little more cautious after getting burned two years in a row.”
I think the Met Office is planning to release the summer forecast in September. They have discovered that this new method of forecasting will improve their accuracy a thousand fold.
“AKD (18:49:09) :
“Does this imply that they are not planning on completing their North Pole trek?” They never were. Their plan is to have the expedition brought to a halt by perilously-thin ice and insurmountable open water.”
This is exactly what will happen. Most of us here could write the press release.
“Due to the dangerous dynamics of ever-thinning ice and open water, shifting relentlessly, conditions made much worse than anticipated by Climate Change, the team had to declare an end to the mission, as the ice had just become far too unstable.”
“Joe Miner (19:44:04) :
Maybe a contest is in order, guess the end date to this farce. My guess is April 22nd, Earth Day. They will claim to have reached an impassable stretch of open water. They will rescue a polar bear and its cubs from near drowning and fly out as modern day eco-heroes.”
Joe, I agree completely. I picked the same day a few weeks ago on one of the previous Catlin threads.
“Harold Ambler (19:49:15) :
Well, sorry to double-post this, but according to the Catlin communications director, Rod Macrae, the team worked out a last-possible pickup date from the ice of May 25th with the air carrier prior to the start of the expedition. ”
Harold, based on the pickup date, it makes sense that the support team is saying they’re approaching the half-way point. And since they’re only approx. 1/4 the way there, the second pool we should start is what’s the total distance they’ll end up covering before cancelling the mission and declaring success.
“Jeff B. (23:41:41) :
My father always said: “death takes all the sport out of it.”
And my favorite, which also seems to fit well here: “It’s all fun and games until someone loses an eye…”
JimB
Steven Goddard (20:37:49
“Speaking of which, The Met Office is a little late on their summer forecast. Last year they made it on April 3. Perhaps they are being a little more cautious after getting burned two years in a row.”
“For the UK and much of western Europe temperatures are likely to be near average”
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/creating/monthsahead/seasonal/2009/summer.html
Issued 31 March
From other similar threads – surely it is obvious that buoys are not measuring depth of ICE with great accuracy. But however it is done it invoves danger to the people doing the measurements.
Presumably Kenn Borek Air have voluntarily contracted to do rescue/pickup. No one forced them? Has anyone contacted them?
It seems “some what over the top” for contributors to this blog to continually wish death/loss of limbs on these people who at least are making manual measurements over 200km of ice, which no buoy has managed.
As I suggested – someone needs to measure the actual depth manually. Perhaps walking to the pole is not the best way
Tom P (16:35:44) :
Steven,
“The 2006C depth graph is clearly broken. Look at the discontinuity around October.â€
That single October point reflects the difficulty of determining the bottom interface during the summer melt when the ice has a very similar temperature to the underlying sea, as I mentioned earlier. There is no reason to question the other data. The current ice thickness is more than 1 m thinner than the corresponding thickness in April 2007.
But as I have repeatedly said, look at what CRREL have published about their data as a whole in January:
“The Arctic sea ice cover is in decline. The areal extent of the ice cover has been decreasing for the past few decades at an accelerating rate. Evidence also points to a decrease in sea ice thickness and a reduction in the amount of thicker perennial sea ice. A general global warming trend has made the ice cover more vulnerable to natural fluctuations in atmospheric and oceanic forcing.â€
http://arjournals.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.marine.010908.163805
Why do you think you are better able to analyse the data than the CRREL Army scientists who actually are running these buoys?
bill (17:07:09) :
Hmmm – short-lived buoys, broken measurements, measurements open to individual interpretation.
It seems to me what is required is a few people to go out onto the ice to take some REAL measurements.
It would be good if these could be done continuously using radar, but if that fails they could at least take an occasional manual measurement.
Would of course need to do this every few years!
Bill
bill (09:04:01) :
Lucy Skywalker (00:44:01) :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northwest_Passage
“The first recorded succesful passage was that of João Martins, in 1588, 265 years pryor to the Mac-clure trip, a portuguese explorer en route to the Philipines, both discovering the passage and the Bering Straight.[8]
OK but:
Dalton Minimum – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
27 Feb 2009 … The Dalton Minimum was a period of low solar activity, named for the English meteorologist John Dalton, lasting from about 1790 to 1830. …
and
http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/scienceques2005/20051128.htm
What was the “Little Ice Age?”
The Little Ice Age was a period from 1300 to 1850 A.D. when the Northern Hemisphere experienced colder than normal temperatures.
Some scientists say that a major volcanic eruption in 1258 A.D. and another in 1600 A.D. helped cool temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. The coldest period of the Little Ice Age is attributed to lower than normal solar energy.
From 1410 to the 1720s the cooling had a strong effect on some areas. During that time, access to Greenland was largely cut off by ice. At the same time, canals in Holland routinely froze solid, glaciers advanced in the Alps, and sea-ice increased so much that no open water was present in any direction around Iceland in 1695.
And of course there is the “graph” here which puts the end of the LIA at 1900!!!!
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/03/17/beryllium-10-and-climate/#more-6286
SOMETHING DOES NOT ADD UP!
Does this mean there was no LIA? or that the LIA did not affect the arctic? perhaps a line of volcanoes under the NW passage?
———————–
Of interest:
http://www.awi.de/en/research/research_divisions/climate_science/sea_ice_physics/subjects/ice_thickness_measurements/
http://naval.review.cfps.dal.ca/forum/view.php?topic=46
If ice is thinning by temperatures going from the -35 to -45 range up to the
-25 range it certainly isn’t air temperature that is doing it.
They need to be extracted from the ice immediately, lest
the new “Stooges” movie will be in jeopardy!
Woop….Woop….Woop…Neh!
I found the following web site very interesting
http://www.thepoles.com/news.php?id=18193
There are a number of teams heading to the North Pole and they are all doing well, possibly not all.
“Lonnie Dupre, guide, (USA), Max Chaya (Lebanon) and Stuart Smith (USA); Cape Discovery Start
The guys came across a few small leads. They reported “beautiful weather”, sun, calm winds, and warming temperatures and made use of it to dry their sleeping bags and jackets.
Day 35, April 7:
traveled 12.2 miles in 10 hours
Position: N86°57’54”, W78°51’36”
“Day 35, April 7:
traveled 12.2 miles in 10 hours
Position: N86°57’54”, W78°51’36”
Pen Hadow, Ann Daniels and Martin Hartley (UK); 81°30’N, 130°W Start
The team received their second resupply and enjoyed the fresh bacon sandwiches.”
The blog links at the foot of the page are interesting.
These are some people.
The post from “Gentry (20:20:16) :”s
Is an excellent contribution to this discussion and hits the nail dead on. This whole stunt was pre-planned from the beginning to illustrate what they wanted to see..not what they are actually seeing. Their complaints about the extremely low temperatures are not in line with the sudden appearance of open water! I think they are seeing something akin to mirages in the desert.
As long as people can make money from propagating the human-driven global warming scare, their will be “global warming”. What is needed is an incentive to re-evaluate the facts as is admirably done by this website. Academics are driven by grants. Their are no grants for dismissal of global warming theory at this time. Why are not the oil companies funding such research I have yet to understand.
Keep up the great work!
right… in the post above I have to make apparent the typo of using “their” rather than “there”… that kind of mistake drives me nuts (is there an edit function?)
.
>>As I suggested – someone needs to measure the actual depth manually.
>>Perhaps walking to the pole is not the best way
If the thickness of Arctic ice were really the Global problem that these people make out, the US navy could do the measurements in a couple of weeks – from below.
To surface a sub in the Arctic, the boat needs to measure the thickness of the ice (presumably by sonar, or perhaps radar). If they have this kind of capacity, they could traverse much of the entire Arctic sea in a few weeks and accurately measure the entire damn area.
.
B Kerr,
Thanks for the jinx link. Spain won’t help much, as they have been running consistently cold for the last couple of years as well.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html
This is how the Catlin group should have conducted their study.
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/2003Reports.html
and from here if we knew the tail numbers from KBA aircaft we could look at the history of flights out of Resolute to see if they resupplied the Catlin Expedition as they claimed.
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/KBA107
Developing.
M White,
Thanks for the summer forecast link. It isn’t present in their news release section, probably because there is no meat to it.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2009/index.html