Guest post by Steven Goddard
Click for a larger map – ice extent overlay provided by Catlin KML file, annotated map by Anthony Watts from data provided by the Catlin Arctic Survey
According to the people who rescued Pen Hadow from his earlier polar near-misadventure in 2003, the latest safe date for recovering people from the North Pole is April 30. The team is currently 683 km away from the pole, which means that they would need to cover 32km per day – an increase of 5X over their average rate so far. That might prove difficult with an exhausted, hypothermic, frostbitten team walking over broken ice and dragging heavy equipment at -34C.
May 28, 2003
Steve Penikett, of Kenn Borek Air, based in Calgary, which completed the mission, said: “I wish it hadn’t taken place at this time of the year. This is the latest we have ever done a pick-up. Landing on the North Pole at this time of the year is not the brightest thing people can do because of the weather and ice conditions.
“People are at risk – the ice breaks and it shouldn’t really happen. No one should expect to be picked up from there later than 30 April … Going to the Pole this time of the year is a bit stupid and you put a lot of people’s lives at risk. If you are going to put yourself into a spot like this … it really does need to be thought through.”
h/t to Pkatt for finding this information. More from Anthony and The Times:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article1136134.ece
May 26, 2003
Polar Pen waits for new airlift as temperature falls
THE temperature at the North Pole has plummeted to minus 25C as the explorer Pen Hadow ekes out his meagre food rations waiting for clouds to clear so he can be airlifted back to civilisation.
After one attempt to pick him up failed, a new plan has been hatched to improve the chances of a successful recovery by aircraft in worsening Arctic weather conditions. Visibility has diminished so far at Hadow’s base camp at Eureka in Canada that pilots could not take off to fly to the pole even if it were safe to land.
As of today, the Catlin web site is showing
| Total distance travelled | 241.13 | km |
|---|---|---|
| Average daily distance | 5.88 | km |
| Estimated distance to North Pole | 683.39 | km |
| Time on ICE | 41 | days |
This is interesting because they also say :
As we approach the half way point of the expedition, the Ice Team are currently just 10 miles below the 85°N line of latitude. During the time Pen, Ann and Martin have been on expedition, the ice has been particularly dynamic, with refrozen leads and huge pressure ridges experienced on a daily basis. The team have managed to navigate their way around open water, and so far have not had to don their immersion suits and swim.
In this next stage of the expedition, we are starting to see the temperature rise from its recent -35C to -45C, thereby allowing the team to focus on something other than sheer survival. However, from satellite pictures we receive in the Ops Room, we can see that once the team cross the 85th degree of latitude, the condition of the ice deteriorates rapidly. Large fissures of open water running east to west for several hundred miles currently scar the ice imagery. So, whilst on the one hand the weather conditions should start to improve, on the other hand the team will now face the new challenge of navigating stretches of open water. So, it is with immersion suits and flotation devices ready that the next phase of the expedition begins.
They are only a little more than 1/4th of the way to the North Pole. Does this imply that they are not planning on completing their North Pole trek?
It appears they never heard of the maxim, “Plan for the worst, hope for the best.”
If they are facing increasing breaks in the ice the further they progress, I would expect the progress to slow. My guess is they’ll be lucky to hit 500km, instead of the 1,000 they’d ‘planned’ on.
And while the rest of the media will drool over their ‘heroism,’ only here at WUWT can one read of level-headed assessments on the ‘value’ of their foolhardiness.
They better hope for global warming after they get off the ice. Another English summer like the last two, and they won’t get their body temperature back to normal before autumn.
Speaking of which, The Met Office is a little late on their summer forecast. Last year they made it on April 3. Perhaps they are being a little more cautious after getting burned two years in a row.
Exactly how long does open water stay open at -35C??? Are the satellite images they are using to see these fissures of open water publicly available on the internet?
Bill, try this IR view:
For a look at the streaks in the ice, try this site and blow it up about 4X.
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/satellite/hrpt_dfo_ir_100.jpg
Someone will have to explain to me how going from -35 to -45 degrees C is a “rise” in temperature. I know I am not good at math, but any way that I figure it logically seems to indicate a drop in temperature.
Robert Bateman (19:21:38) :
3 Martyrs for AGW.
Assuming Somali pirates don’t move in, kidnap them & demand $2M each. It’s only a matter of time before “experts” link global warming to the spike in aggression of renegade pirates on the high seas.
I blame Jack Sparrow, myself.
Back to the subject, if/when they are rescued, I wonder if the media focus will be on those who selflessly risked their lives to save them rather than this group of “IceKateers” (I like that – kudos) who carelessly decided to embark on this pointless expedition to begin with?
That was a rhetorical question, of course. We all know the answer.
An average of 32 km a day would be impressive. Norwegian adventurers, who probably are much better skiers, hardly do more than an average of 20 km a day in the Arctic ocean. Adventurers like Rune Gjeldnes and Torry Larsen used 109 days to ski 2100 km across the Arctic ocean.
Bobby Lane,
Think of it this way: Say it was about 40 below, so you say it is 35 to 45 below. The forecast is for it to warm to about 25 below. So, you are going to see the temperature rise from its recent (35 to 45 below) all the way up to 20 to 30 below. What could be simpler?
Bill Jamison (20:49:55) :
“Exactly how long does open water stay open at -35C??? Are the satellite images they are using to see these fissures of open water publicly available on the internet?”
Yes. And wouldn’t that warm (not frozen) water on exposure to -35C air create fog?
Oh, and why use a summer time map of the Polar Ice? 🙂
REPLY: That is the ice image provided by the KML file downloaded that was produced by Catlin.
http://mw2.google.com/mw-ocean/ocean/media/exp/files/catlin_arctic_survey18.kml
Apparently their world view of Arctic sea ice right now is a bit different than the reality, seen here:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.bandw.000.png
-Anthony
Bill Jamison (20:49:55) :
Exactly how long does open water stay open at -35C??? Are the satellite images they are using to see these fissures of open water publicly available on the internet?
Even if it ices over a few minutes later it doesn’t make much difference, you wouldn’t be able to walk on iy.
“wattsupwiththat (19:17:42) : Ego is a very dangerous thing when lives are at stake.”
It seems that ego is carrying Al Gore somewhere stranger and stranger all the time too. It seems (IMO) there’s an internal struggle with him. I’ve seen many comments in other blogs that it looks he’s drinking. I don’t think I believe it. It could guess polypharmacy though. It must be difficult to always keep the awareness that you must exaggerate things at every turn.
Whatever the case is he doesn’t look healthy. Photo from January 19, 2009 :
http://www1.pictures.gi.zimbio.com/Green+Inaugural+Ball+2009+Inside+68zxzbw7bH_l.jpg
Why does the Catlin Project show all this open blue water on their map/picture? The entire arctic is still full of ice and there is no open passage ways. The Cryosphere currently shows a near average ice extent on their graphs. This expedition couldn’t already be biased before the science is in, or could it?
REPLY: see response above, refresh if needed – Anthony
“Steven Goddard (20:37:49) : Speaking of which, The Met Office…”
Piers Corbyn has already tried to bet the Met about 2009 :
“Piers Corbyn… issued his forecast for World temperatures 2009 which directly contradicts the Met office & World Meteorological Organisation’s forecasts and challenges the Met Office to a bet… The Met Office’s recent forecast that the world in 2009 will be in the warmest 5 on record will fail… instead 2009 is likely to be similar to or colder than 2008. All their recent climate forecasts have failed and this one will too. ”
ref :
http://www.weatheraction.com/id10.html
Why do I keep getting this vision of these characters getting themselves in situation where the ice is too thin for walking and too thick for their immersion suits?
Is this plausible?
Richard,
If you want a different map, try this
http://nsidc.org/data/virtual_globes/
Click on the second one “September sea ice extent, 1979-2008”
Open the link – Google Earth will load
Move cursor on to map – there is a slider at the top
watch all or pick one
small triangles increments
large triangle on right plays sequence
Some more recent info (from BBC) about failing gadgets they use:
http://motls.blogspot.com/2009/04/pen-hadows-scientific-expedition.html
The page above also contains a poll whether they will get to the North Pole. Please cast your votes! 😉
Great photo of the north polar region. The current(s) in the Arctic Ocean must be quite dynamic in order to produce such openings in the ice.
Having said that, I expect that the Catlin trek will continue regardless. I expect that there might be contractual requirements for the team to reach the pole.
Today’s Washington Post Editorial
“Arctic Ice Is Melting”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/10/AR2009041003071.html
Has someone noted Warwick Vincent’s name somewhere (director of the Center for Northern Studies at Laval University in Quebec) for his assertion that Arctic ice would likely be gone by 2013? We should be taking names, you know. If only so that we can publicly accuse these people when the date comes and goes. I haven’t forgotten my favourite figure of fun, Prince Charles, for his laughably-stupid “100 months to save the world”. He will be getting a letter in less than eight years time – and it’s going to be a good one with nothing held back! We should be drawing up a list of names and noting what they said. Perhaps the construction of a website? Hell, I’ll do it if people would like to give me lists of names and what they said – I have available space on my website.
My father always said: “death takes all the sport out of it.”
I think they mean 10 miles south of the 84 degree N line of latitude .. right ? Not 85 !
Clearly either minds being addled by cold or wishful thinking ……..
When it is all over it is the “spin” they put on it that will intrigue us.
Or will they pretend it never happened?
That’s how sad and pathetic this whole AGW argument is….I should be calling it a debate but there has never been one.
The fact that ITN in the UK and The Washington Post are still saying the Arctic is warming when we know it is cooling and looks as if it has been doing for around four years sums up the whole situation.
It is the media who can resolve this by swallowing their pride and being professional.
I am not expecting it to happen anytime soon, however they are not fooling the public who are increasingly sceptical.
I applaud this site and all the scientific contributors as you are offering a service like no other.
Last week I had my cousin’s wife to dinner with her friend who was a former head mistress and science teacher.
She was so thrilled to see scientific debate without political and media interference.
Keep it up Anthony.
There is a kind of inevitability about this expedition. It seems that when they are finally rescued, by people who will risk their own necks to do so, the blaze of rescue publicity will be all about the thin ice that the Otter has to land on, thus proving their initial hypothesis.
I am beginning to despair that our society has finally gone irretrievably mad.
I keep asking myself if Catlin was designed to fail? The AGW zealots will always be able to treat failure to reach the pole as “success”. They will just say the ice was too thin – which is all they ever set out to ‘prove’…