Guest post by Steven Goddard
25 September 2008
The Met Office forecast for the coming winter suggests it is, once again, likely to be milder than average.
Seasonal forecasts from the Met Office are used by many agencies across government, private and third sectors to help their long-term planning.
The meteorological winter is over, and the official results are in :
The UK had its coldest winter for 13 years, bucking a recent trend of mild temperatures, the Met Office has said.
The average mean temperature across December, January and February was 3.1C – the lowest since the winter beginning in 1995, which averaged 2.5C.
Peter Stott, of the Met Office, said despite this year’s chill, the trend to milder, wetter winters would continue.
He said snow and frost would become less of a feature in the future.
….
The Met Office added that global warming had prevented this winter from being even colder.
2009 is expected to be one of the top-five warmest years on record, despite continued cooling of huge areas of the tropical Pacific Ocean, a phenomenon known as La Niña.
2007 is likely to be the warmest year on record globally, beating the current record set in 1998, say climate-change experts at the Met Office.
Sean Ogilvie (06:36:34) :
About a month ago I copied images and data from GISS from 1880 to present. Today I looked and they have changed the 01/1880 anamoly from +0.47 to +0.50. I checked a few other months from the 1800s and they have also changed. That was 129 years ago. I’ve also noticed that several of the stand alone grid areas have changed shape.
Does anyone know how this works?
Yes. I do. (You have no idea how much it frightens me to say that!)
The re-write the past based on “the reference station method”, the create anomaly maps where there are no data base on “the reference station method” and in particular to your point: The re-write the past every time they merge GHCN data with USHCN data in STEP0 so that there is no discontinuity between the two series when they glue them together…
See:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/03/01/gistemp-step0-the-process/
and scroll down to “let the games begin”.
Reply: Also look at this post from last year by John Goetz-Rewriting history, time and time again. ~ charles the moderator
Sean Ogilvie (06:36:34) : Does anyone know how this works?
Oh, and in STEP1, from:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/03/03/step1-overview-and-sizes/
see down at the bottom where I write:
This same code ‘combines non-overlaping records’ via what looks like a varient of the ‘reference station method’. It looks to me like the code searches for ‘nearby’ stations that have data for any place where the present station has a gap, then computes some kind of weighting factor based on anomallies and uses that to ‘fill in’ the missing data in the gap (i.e. create data where there are none based on the notion that a near by station can tell you what this station ought to have been…)
and
This is possibly the explanation for the random places in GIStemp data where a station has a data point jump up or down for no reason in the middle of the series.
Pure bologna!
Headline in Australia today, 5 March, 2009, just to show weather really is an ornery critter:
Snow falls in Victoria just days after extreme bushfire alert
I Love A Sunburnt Country
Meanwhile, Florida’s winter has been 3.3 degrees F below average. This includes above-average temperatures in December.
DJ (12:28:57) :
“Lets just get a few things clear. 1) Seasonal forecasting is an initial value problem. It is not the same as climate change which is a boundary value problem.”
Let’s get a few more things clear
1) the Lorenz Effect (late Meteorology Prof. Ed Lorenz of MIT) — i.e. a sufficiently complex (non-linear) system can not be predicted beyond a certain point in time (Lyupanov time) due to there always being errors in the input information (input state) or in the coupling coefficients between the various equations (off diagonal elements of the matrix) – more prosaically Lorenz is often tied to Butterflies (“Butterfly flapping its wings can trigger a hurricane” and also the so-called Butterfly diagram associated with a complex system exhibiting a “Strange Attractor”).
The Lorenz Effect is essentially the explanation why despite factors of 10^6 in CPU processing (*i.e TFoPS versus MFoPS) and similar increases in memory and thousands of X in volume and quality of input data sources (satellites, Doppler radar) that forecasts beyond 36 hours are only marginally better than they were in the early 1960’s.
2) The fact that we can do any amount of useful weather forecasting is due to the fact that we understand quite well the local behavior of a small cube of the atmosphere — i.e. the transport of latent and sensible heat and mass in the atmosphere.
Details are another matter as the air packet interacts with the ocean surface (getting wetter and losing momentum through friction that drives gravity water waves, picking up condensation nuclei, losing CO2, and getting either warmer or colder depending on the water temperature, etc.), cryosphere (the ice), terrain (mountains, deserts), and vegetation. Except for the largest scales the details are too fine-grained for current generations of models. For instance, take a look at “Ensembles” of the Model predictions that are generated for an Atlantic Hurricane. The Models are generally quite widely distributed in their predictions outside of the next 12 hours. For smaller scale phenomena such as individual thunderstorm cells we do even worse.
3) Forecasting the details of a Winter (brutal icestorms, blizzards that shut down air and ground transport for days, dramatic southern freezes that cause zooming fresh fruit and vegetable prices) a few months out is a exponentially harder than just saying that the East will be milder and the South wetter than average. These latter “Long Range” Forecasts are not much better than just a taking some sort of average (frequently over 30 years) and then taking the anomaly in temperature and snowfall to be same +/- (epsilon) than it was last year. Most years are close enough for you to win this hand on an average — however such a forecast is nigh close to useless — as just one or two nasty outbreaks of winter such as occurred in the US northeast this year — (due to the enormous area that may be involved) can be more economically disruptive even than a land falling hurricane.
4) Cranking any amount of input data into a computer model that lacks all of the relevant physics (and that you know it is lacking in relevant physics) is worse than an exercise in futility — it is a true case of intellectual dishonesty
Today, we don’t even know the sign of the contribution to so-called “radiative forcing” due to clouds (statement from the IPCC about uncertainty in various factors) — in other words clouds might on the average make it either cooler or warmer — all other things being equal.
5) It is of course even worse than that in the case of General Circulation Models that are used for Climate predictions. GCM’s are based on the Navier-Stokes equations for heat (radiation, latent heat of evaporated water) on a rotating sphere but to minimize the quantity of data and speed-up the runs most of the models don’t bother with the details of small mountain ranges using just an average surface roughness unless your are talking Alps or Himalayas. They also typically don’t deal with individual thunderstorms. This despite the observations that much of the heat that is transported north from the equator is pumped into the high troposphere in the form of water vapor by the convection of the thunderstorms. Hence to really turn the crank, we’ve got serious gaps even if we knew the strength of the relevant coupling terms in the very very complex system that is the Sun-Earth Climate System with bit roles played by Galactic Cosmic Rays.
Moral of the story – we really can’t claim any more credibility in predicting the evolution of the climate than we can predict the behavior of stock markets.
“WestHighlander (20:43:06) : Moral of the story – we really can’t claim any more credibility in predicting the evolution of the climate than we can predict the behavior of stock markets.”
I understand your point, and I liked your comment.
But, the stock market isn’t as hard to predict as climate.
<blockquoteDamn! There’s still an interface problem between the keyboard and chair!!!!!
Pat, in IT lingo, that is classified as a PEBKAC error – Problem Exists Between Keyboard And Chair!!!
It could also be an I.D.10 T. error. Those are more embarrassing.
For instance, that was a classic I.D.10 T. error right there.
Adolfo Giurfa (08:22:02) : It seems that there is plenty of room for private forecasters. Private or even individual research it is (and it has been historically) by far better than any (if any) done by government employees, they are sure nobody will remove them from their jobs.
Well, my 2009 “The Old Farmers Almanac” predicted a cold dry winter, and that’s what we’ve had here. It’s copyright 2008 and I think I bought it about September? of 2008. Has on the cover “Cold, Snow, Hurricanes Blow – Global Cooling?”. Refreshingly, on page 81 they have a section titled “How accurate was our forecast last winter?” The temperature chart has a pretty good match of forecast to actuals (a couple of cities are off by a degree or so, many more are within a tenth).
The “General Weather Forecast and Report” starts off with:
Our study of solar activity suggests that as we enter solar cycle 24 we are at the beginning of a significant change. Over the coming years, a gradual cooling of the atmosphere will occur, offset by any warming caused by greenhouse gasses. We expect the La Nina that developed during the winter of 2007-2008 to continue in the winter of 2008-2009. Most of the nation will have below normal temps, on average. The area of heavy snowfall will extend from the Ozarks, northeastward into southern New England. (This is further south than the area of heavy snowfall in the winter of 2007-08.)
Yeah, I’d say private forecasters are doing rather well. So well they can print it up half a year in advance and still be right…
Well worth the money. Don’t plan your planting without it.
BTW, they use a proprietary system that looks at sunspot cycles and maybe planetary positions IIRC. Page 74 has a chart of U.S. temp vs 11 year annual mean of PDO+AMO (1905-2000) with striking correlation. Page 72 has a chart of US Annual mean temp vs 11 year running mean TSI with fair correlation. So maybe they use more than “astrology” 😎 Don’t know if they do anything outside the U.S.A. though.
They have a web site at:
http://www.almanac.com/
I’m just a satisfied customer.
“Roger Carr (19:31:17) :
Headline in Australia today, 5 March, 2009, just to show weather really is an ornery critter:
Snow falls in Victoria just days after extreme bushfire alert”
Indeed, hard to find, not (Or I can’t find) on smh.com.au for instance. It is here however; http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25142916-29277,00.html
“1) Seasonal forecasting is an initial value problem. It is not the same as climate change which is a boundary value problem.”
This is BS. Where do you people get this nonsense?? The seasonal forecasts, which obviously have limited (or no) skill, rely on the SAME algorithms as the climate models. And they both are initial value problems! If this is not the case, please show me where the climate models do not use a time-marching numerical framework…
For additional information on this topic, please read these…
http://www.climatesci.org/publications/pdf/R-212.pdf
http://www.climatesci.org/publications/pdf/R-210.pdf
Drat. Opened with an italics and closed with a quote… everything after 2007-08 is mine…
[Fixed. ~dbstealey, mod.]
I’ve always been partial to “Loose nut behind the keyboard”.
Common wisdom here ( Greece) watches the phases of the moon for short term predictions. The weather is supposed to keep on as it starts with each quarter of the moon. If it is north winds, a week of them, if its south winds and rain ditto etc.
Mostly work, if you accept a day or so error :).
Last quarter entered mild sunny and dry, this one starts with drizzle which is supposed to go for a week 🙂
There are also moon sea-turbulance correlations due to the importance of the sea for Greece over the millenia.
Probably works only in Greece.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.some.000.png
Well, well. Greenland is coming to join to the tip of Iceland if the weather does not change.
It is strange but the sst anomaly stillshows warmer waters in that area:
http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-090301.gif
“E.M.Smith (21:34:53) : The Old Farmers Almanac…. Well worth the money. Don’t plan your planting without it.”
My grandpa, who died just some months ago, swore by that book. I still remember his expressions when he talked about it. He was impressed by how uncanny the forecasts were. He had beautiful crops every year, without fail.
“They’ll be mile-high ice all over,
The white cliffs of Dover”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7924134.stm
I hate that “don’t confuse weather with climate” phrase. This mindset assumes that climate is steady-state, except for AGW effects, while weather varies. The fact is there is no timespan less than an ice age cycle over which climate is “steady”, and even then continental drift changes ocean currents and climate patterns. There is variation at every time length.
“Just as they had forecast that 2007 would be the hottest year on record, prior to temperatures plummeting by nearly a full degree.
2007 is likely to be the warmest year on record globally, beating the current record set in 1998, say climate-change experts at the Met Office.
Based on their past accuracy with seasonal and annual forecasting, you might want to bundle up and buy some new rain boots.”
Interesting article Anthony. One comments re “rain boots” – in the UK, they are called “Wellingtons” or commonly “Wellies”. They are often a dull green colour. Even the Queen has a pair of Wellies, for those wet days at Balmoral.
Following is my latest contribution to the scientific debate, worth at least a hundred hockey sticks.
Regards, Allan
The Welly Boot Song – Billy Connolly
Chorus:
If it wasn’t for your wellies where would you be
You’d be in the hospital or infirmary
‘Cause you would have a dose of the flu or even pleurisy
If you didn’t have your feet in your wellies
WestHighlander (20.43.06)
Great comment.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/03/03/final-score-for-the-met-office-winter-forecast/#comment-94309
Anthony
When are you going to implement cross-linked comments on your blog?
anna v (22:13:55) :
The warm water around Greenland seems to originate from Iceland. It’s been there for over a year now. I suspect it’s volcanic in nature but if it’s not unusual activity then it shouldn’t show up on an anomaly map, but it does.
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_anomaly_NPS_ophi0.png
Great responses to an excellent Blog abut Met Office
I sent this to the Education section AKA Ministry of Truth. Perhaps we can undo the cult brainwashing one victim at a time.
To Eduction Met
I wasn’t able to find individuals to contact, just general email addresses, so I forwarded to what I thought might have a human at the other end.
I found the website http://www.metoffice.gov.uk to be full of self congratulatory information on how well you are doing, how valuable, your work is, and how all doubts about man made global warming have been resolved.
As one who has read the Technical sections of IPCC reports, which are replete with qualifications about how much more we need to learn to understand climate, the Met Office website reads like a catechism of MMGB (man made global warming) Believers.
I have two scientific degrees. But more importantly, in high school, I learned how the true scientific method is always challenging and examining the data to make sure its theories and hypothesis can stand.
“No amount of experimentation can ever prove me right; a single experiment can prove me wrong.” Albert Einstein
Your web has no deviation from doctrine, no heretical qualifications, only absolute religious fervor about the True Path.
An yet, the Path lead to false doctrine in that it predicted the coming of the Heat for the past winter.
But the Heat came not.
But this deviation was resolved!
Lesser Cold minus Bigger Cold = Hidden Heat.
Layman interpretation: It would have been colder except for the hidden HEAT.
All’s right in the World.
And, I couldn’t find your analysis about this big miss on the website. Is the explanation for it buried somewhere? If so, please send link.
Or are the hidden Revelations only available to the True Believers?
Below from:
From http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/03/03/final-score-for-the-met-office-winter-forecast/
The UK Met Office famously forecast this past winter to be “milder than average.“
25 September 2008
The Met Office forecast for the coming winter suggests it is, once again, likely to be milder than average.
Seasonal forecasts from the Met Office are used by many agencies across government, private and third sectors to help their long-term planning.
The meteorological winter is over, and the official results are in :
The UK had its coldest winter for 13 years, bucking a recent trend of mild temperatures, the Met Office has said.
The average mean temperature across December, January and February was 3.1C – the lowest since the winter beginning in 1995, which averaged 2.5C.
This missed forecast falls on the heels of two consecutive incorrect summer forecasts , both of which were forecast to be warm but turned out to be complete washouts. However, the Met Office appears undaunted by their recent high profile forecasting failures, and they continue in their quest to eeducate the public about the imminent threat of global warming.
Regards Gary Fox
Princeton Junction, NJ
The Met office is run by the Ministry of Defence
The miinistry of defence is run by the government
The government appointed a non-scientist to run the met office
The Met office has no credibility.
Rain boots were originally created less than 200 years ago, in early 19th century England. Arthur Wellesley, the First Duke of Wellington, wore Hessian boots, which were tall, tasseled boots for men, brought to England by the Hessians. The popular Duke instructed his favorite shoe maker to modify the boots a bit, removing the fancy trim and making them a bit more form-fitting; the boots became known as Wellingtons or “Wellies” and became the fashion rage among well-to-do English men
http://www.wisegeek.com/what-are-rain-boots.htm