CO2, Temperatures, and Ice Ages

Thanks for the analysis Frank and a rejoiner to Luis Dias’ comment that there can be sharp falls in some heating/cooling events and this refutes Frank’s argument.
What often is confused is that heat and temperature are two different things, heat being a quantity and temperature being a level. What Frank was pointing out was a greater amount of heat is transferred to the ocean with longer periods of temperature rise therefore longer periods of cooling are needed for the heat to be released and therfore the temperature to fall. This is a classic example of hysteresis and can be observed in many natural phenomena. The assymetry is indeed intriguing.
Frank presents a hypothesis on why heat can enter the oceans more quickly than it can be released. Although not explicity stated I think he is saying that the mixing delay is the key, with less mixing the hot water (containing much heat per volume of water) is only at surface and it’s higher temperature leads to rapid heat loss through evaporation of water and radiance. However, if there is more time to achieve greater mixing the averaged temperature is lower even though more total heat may be absorbed (because of the greter water volume involved). Because it is a lower temperature there is both a slower heat loss and this as well as the larger amount of total heat contained means it takes longer.
Makes sense to me Frank.

Frank Lansner’s paper elegantly demonstrates the relationship between CO2 and temperature however without detracting from the overall theme of the paper I would like to point out that the assumption has been made that the ice core sample CO2 data is accurate. There are many eminent scientists in this field who challenge the accuracy of this data. Some of the these are Prof. Jaworowski, who was a pioneer in this field, J.J.Drake et. al.
Basically the air trapped in the snow becomes compressed as the build up occurs and the air goes into solution with the pressure build up. Since the solubilities are different the rate of absorption occurs at different rates for different gasses. At a certain depth there are no “air” bubbles left contrary to the IPCC’s numerous declarations. Once in solution the CO2 migrates or combines with the ice crystals to form calthrates. When the ice core is drilled and brought to the surface the pressure is released and the gasses come out of solution however the reconstituted gas is not the same as the original air.
Page 446 of the IPCC 4AR has the following interesting text, “ Ice core records show that atmospheric CO2 varied in the range 180 to 300 ppm over the glacial-interglacial cycles of the last 650kyr …. The quantitative and mechanistic explanation of these CO2 variations remains one of the major unsolved questions in climate research.”
The answer to this is simple the level never got to 180 ppm if it had for the period of time shown on the ice core charts the plant life on the planet would have been decimated and most animals would have starved, basically plants stop growing at 200 ppm. Stomata data by Wagner, Aaby and Visscher prove conclusively that the ice core data is seriously in error. The ice core data can be corrected using J.J.Drake’s correlation, the profile does not change but the ppm values do so the analysis is still valid.

@P2O2 (15:15:12) :
I would add a third question:
3) When the Earth cools the evaporation decreases and the oceans should freeze. In the meantime, the ice grows over the land as well. Does it mean there must be areas of increased evaporation to push the gigantic amount of water onto the land?
Simply speaking I put the CO2 issue aside from any “global” conciderations. Isn’t the CO2 issue a dead end street in the climate disputes?

foinavon (15:15:46) :
It’s increasingly well established that deglaciation is driven by insolation changes in the deep Southern hemisphere, and that the resulting rise in CO2 due to warming-induced efflux from the Southern oceans, amplifies the Milankovitch warming and promotes Northern hemisphere warming. That accounts for the observation that the CO2 rise, which follows warming in Antarctic cores, precedes warming in the Greenland cores.
And then again
” The temporal coincidence of glacial epochs on the Earth and Mars during the Quaternary and latest Amazonian would suggest a coupled system linking both [Sagan, C., Young, A.T., 1973. Nature 243, 459″

foinavon (14:31:43) :
The warming during the glacial to interglacial transition was very, very, very slow (around 5 oC of warming during 5000 years, for example during the last glacial interglacial transition 15000-10000 years ago). So we’re warming around 15-20 times faster than that now.
Remember that the ice cores have a heavily smoothed signal due to CO2 diffusion and other factors in the ice. We know that heating and cooling rates similar to those of today’s more precise measurements have to have been present in the recent past, due to the fact we can find tree stumps in the arctic, LIA, MWP, etc. Real data explaining the exact rates is not available owing to the recent invention of the thermometer (and language), but plenty of evidence exists to surmise peaks and valleys in the recent past not much different from today’s cycles. One only needs to look at the last 150 years of real data to see these steep variations in both directions. So to argue that high rates of change in either direction didn’t exist before doesn’t make much sense, we just can’t see the signal due to the gaussian filter effects present in the ice core data.
The original signal can’t be put back into the data, but it is certainly no stretch of logic to assume that the climate had short term variations much like the present, on top of the long term trends you see, since many of the same drivers were present (ocean cycles, solar, whatever). If the data could be somehow recovered and shown in the charts above, it would simply be overlayed on top and appear as noise on top of the signal you see (and we would probably filter it out again so we can see it easier for this presentation).
There is no evidence of a flat temperature profile for any length of time anywhere on earth (except maybe the center). If you have found one, it is reasonably safe to assume it either suffers from a filtering effect, or it is a Mann made signal :-).

Thank you, Frank for pointing out some of the benefits of increased CO2. I had an aquarium with a simple CO2 bubbler which was the fad back then, and the plant growth was indeed lush. So I have a residual positive feeling toward CO2. The AGW side never consider this and it has always made me feel uncomfortable since a realistic cost/benefit analysis of increasing CO2 would have to include the positive aspects along with the negatives. Where is this analysis?
Frank’s approach and other common sense empirical approaches such as “Cold Facts on Global Warming” by T.J. Nelson, lead me to believe that a lot of money has been wasted trying to forecast scenarios that are impossible to begin with. Nelson calculates a maximum possible increase of less than 2 degrees at CO2 doubling mainly due to the logarithmic nature of CO2 wavelength absorption. He also points out that if CO2 concentrations continue to increase along the straight line trend they are on now since 1975, doubling will occur in 2250. Not exactly around the corner. Frank introduces the increasing biosphere as another negative driver to keep CO2 increase on or below that trend.

Timbrom, very simple answer … It does not. CO2 radiative forcing flattens out at about 50 ppm thereafter it has no effect on temperature reference Dr. John Nichol’s paper which in my humble opinion is the best analysis using the fundamental laws of radiation physics. On the other hand increasing CO2 accelerates the growth rate of all green plants hence to total hypocrisy of reducing CO2 is “going green” If the atmosphere ever got to 1000 ppm CO2 the productivity of the worlds agriculture would be doubled with no effect on temperature, just ask a greenhouse operator, some of them spend a lot of money installing CO2 enrichment equipment.

E.M.Smith (14:25)
“The easy suspect would be plants. As the ice age sets in, lots of plants die. Decay leads to CO2 (until the plants remains are sequestered under glaciers)
I also considered that, but plant decay is a temperature-sensitive rate process. If it is cold enough for substantial plant die-off, perhaps it is cold enough to supress the plant decay organisms, too. OTOH, there may be increases and decreases in temperature after plant die-off, so maybe the decay organisms do their work during the brief warm episodes.
re city water usage and droughts
We already have a few water issues in the cities related to the drought. Voluntary conservation measures are urged on the populace, and a citizen “water police” was authorized to report water wasters (washing the car with a free-running hose, overwatering the lawn, etc). Still, these are nothing like we should have, such as bans on washing cars, bans on washing driveways and sidewalks, and watering lawns only on alternate days.
But I agree with your statement that agriculture will take the hit. Domestic use of water is the first priority, farming is around last priority. Industrial and commercial use are somewhere in the middle, and are decided case by case.
re The Wrath of Grapes *grin*
Brother, can you spare a Watt? to charge up their e-car on the cross-country trip. Marvelous…
Unfortunately, I suspect migrating Californians will get very little sympathy from those in other states…witness the Enron traders and their recorded statements as they exacerbated the power crisis a few years ago!

Rob (12:28:00) :
“If it’s to pass peer review, then it must be expanded to include the effects of ice sheet size and atmospheric methane concentration. In fact, if all three are considered, then the temperature vs time graph is explained very well.”
Red herring.
It’s irrelevant what ELSE may cause temp rise/fall, the point of Frank Lansner’s piece was that CO2 is NOT the primary driver of temperature and other effects can and do overwhelm CO2’s forcing. So identifying other factors does not refute this.

Mary Hinge (15:24:54)
“This is a brave attempt by Frank but is basically an intensely simplistic argument with no grasp of the complexities involved. Frank has been guilty of this previously with his very strong assertion that because the SOI was high back in September then a La Nina was inevitable. I did point out to him there were other factors involved and that these were indicating a la Nina was a low probability event. He was however still convinced that this one particular fact meant that a La Nina was inevitable. We now know he was wrong then and I’m afraid he is once again very wrong here.
He must learn that climate science is not the simplistic two dimensional process he thinks it is.”
A rather ubiquitous problem eg.
DRAFT March 29, 2006
Spotlight on Global Temperature
by James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Reto Ruedy, Ken Lo, David Lea and Martin Medina-Elizalde
Early model predictions of global warming proved accurate, the Pacific Ocean seems charged for a potential super-El Nino, and global temperature is poised to reach record, perhaps dangerous, levels….
SUPER EL NINO IN 2006-2007? We suggest that an El Nino is likely to originate in 2006 and that there is a good chance it will be a “super El Nino”, rivaling the 1983 and 1997-1998 El Ninos, which were successively labeled the “El Nino of the century” as they were of unprecedented strength in the previous 100 years (Fig. 1 of Fedorov and Philander 2000). Further, we argue that global warming causes an increase of such “super El Ninos”. Our rationale is based on interpretation of dominant mechanisms in the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) phenomenon, examination of historical SST data, and observed Pacific Ocean SST anomalies in February 2006