Monday, December 8, 2008
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA – December 8, 2008 (OWSweather.com) Rare 50 year Arctic Blast Sets Sights On Southern California.
With a week away, and a sure sign of things to come, OWSweather.com is making preparations on the server to handle the traffic from this next event. UJEAS is in line with the majority if not all the other models in keeping a near historical arctic air mass into the Southern California region.
With a warm November, Southern California is finally ready for cold storms to make their way in. Resort level snow will be likely next week, and in pretty hefty amounts if things stay on track. OWSweather.com Meteorologist Kevin Martin predicts a 50 year event. While Martin is usually conservative on these events, the pattern highly favors it. “We are in a pre-1950 type pattern, “said Martin. “We know we are due for a winter storm sometime this year. The type we may be dealing with will be ranked up there with the known years before 1950, which set record low daytime temperatures into the forecast region. With this, may come low elevation snow.”
Forecaster Cameron Venable is seeing very cold temperatures in the Los Angeles areas as well. Torrance is not usually known for winter weather, thus making this an interesting event for Venable to track.
“Temperatures in Siberia, Russia will be -81 degrees this week, “said Martin. “With those type of temperatures the arctic air mass has to spill somewhere. Our answer of the exact track will become more clear this week. All residents in the mountain communities should prepare this week for very cold, winter weather, with snow.”
Indications are a second, colder storm could hit near the 18th-22nd time-frame. The details on that will have to be sorted out.
OWSweather.com staff More information: www.OWSweather.com (h/t to PearlandAggie)
O/T
Looks like the poor may suffer carbon cuts too. Not sure how they are going to manage it…!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7773799.stm
Love the snowflakes falling on your blog site!!! Looking forward to a good ski season!
Will the Arctic Sea Ice cross over the historic average? (1979-2007)
http://eva.nersc.no/vhost/arctic-roos.org/doc/observations/images/ssmi1_ice_area.png
It’s getting close…
California is the state whose ‘leadership’ has done more to pursue silly AGW policies than any other. Instead of focusing on managing the immense amount of trouble its irresponsible budget policies have caused, they are instead wasting time and resources pursuing energy fantasies.
The irony of the first state in the nation to be wrecked by AGW hysteria now freezing to death is more delicious than I can imagine.
JN, PearlandAngie,
It has to be deg F. If it were Deg C the equivalent temp in deg F would be -113, seeing as Siberia’s all time low is “only” -86 I don’t believe it is deg C. If my memory serves me correctly (which it may not be) when Siberia got that record Alaska was soon to follow. The extreme high pressure which accompanied it forced all aviation to fly by Visual Flight Rules only, because their altimeters weren’t designed to handle such high pressure.
Don’t panic, this is just more evidence of global warming. Recent reductions in CO2 levels in the Southern CA area supports the theory and the over cooling is caused by low mixing of other gases within this region. High ice freezing rates in the Arctic has caused a ripple effect of cold air to be sucked into this area.
So, it’s not really cold at all, it’s caused by CO2. The arctic air which normally cools and freezes the ice up North has moved into a more Southern area. All of this is man caused and man needs to pain for these changes. So, expect record levels of warming inside the Arctic circle and further reduction of ice levels and starving polor bears.
Sounds as good as anything else I read.
Algore has expressed great concern for Polar Bears and other wildlife in the Arctic due his belief that the Arctic ice at the North Pole is disappearing. In a glaring display of insensitivity and neglect, the high priest of AGW has never once expressed concern for the domicile of Santa Claus, Santa’s family, his helpers nor the toy factory. How callous.
Ed,
Your exactly correct…I expect Christmas to be canceled by now. LOL 🙂
Someone should call the Terminator!
Ecotretas
Re: Ric Werme
I would love to see a white Christmas in Santa Cruz! Hope it pans out.
“Oh – note that OWSweather.com focuses on Orange County. You folks in the Bay Area will be shivering even more. Maybe even snow, if you’re lucky. (I imagine driving in the Bay Area during a snow storm is not a favorite activity.)
Hmm, 1000-500 mb “thicknesses” suggest temps will be cold enough for snow in the Bay area from the 14th-17th and again from the 19th – Christmas. The latter round might reach San Diego, though at that timeframe the forecast is more fantasy than anything I’d make plans for.”
Bill (11:05:30) :
Did you read his Chemtrail stuff? I nearly posted the main links on that
other thread.
http://www.owsweather.com/pr120408a.html
http://www.owsweather.com/contrailreport1.html
http://www.owsweather.com/contrailreport2.html
http://www.owsweather.com/contrailreport3.html
http://www.owsweather.com/contrailreport4.html
http://www.owsweather.com/contrailreport5.html
He says the nasty chemicals are simply airplane combustion products.
The latter 5 links have photos and drawing debunking most of the
claims and the “Yeah, but how about what I saw yesterday” comments.
One thing I saw during my first visit to Vail CO was a plane cruising
through a gorgeous azure sky. It crossed the sun a little before I
noticed it and I was surprised by a dark streak _ahead_ of the plane.
I quickly figured out that it was just the shadow of the contrail and
the reduced illumination of the air made it look dark. Martin has
some photos showing a similar effect, but not perfectly lined up like
I saw.
Your link to weather.com suffers from being a list of currently posted
alerts. Those are only posted a few days ahead, we’re looking at something
that only the models have a decent hand on. It will be a few more
days before the freeze warnings start showing up.
So, Martins debunks chemtrails, but says people are getting sick from the combustion products of planes, when they precipitate out. The only noxious element I know of would be nitrogen oxide, which would contribute to acid rain. But enough to make people sick? What are they doing, drinking the rain? I don’t get it.
This in no way discredits any of his other work, though.
Does SC even get snow at all? I spent a couple Xmases there in my youth (40 or so years ago) and don’t even remember it being very cold. My sister lives there currently, and my Grandmother lives in Capitola
Air Pollution is the result of flights that contain no politicians on them.
Ever wonder how much CO2 NASCAR races generate? OUCH!
Sorry, but I just can’t get me knickers in a twist thinking about southern cali’s playing in snow. Besides, I have pipes to wrap and heaters to set up. When it gets this cold, even my clean-outs in the laundry room freeze up.
Pamela Gray (18:27:31) :
“Sorry, but I just can’t get me knickers in a twist thinking about southern cali’s playing in snow. Besides, I have pipes to wrap and heaters to set up. When it gets this cold, even my clean-outs in the laundry room freeze up.”
If the long range forecast can be believed (fat chance) you’re going to have sub-zero temps for a couple days before Christmas. Monster Arctic high pressure system, http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_336m.gif is the ground level fantasy for the morning of the 23rd. You’re inside the -30C contour, that’s -22F. Does that happen? That’s 120F colder than when I was there!
N.B. that’s from a 336 hour forecast, reality will be quite different and likely closer to average temps.
I went off to look see what I could find in the last 50 years of California freezes. I couldn’t find as much as I’d like, but I did come up with these quotes:
Frost damage emerges across Northern California
Updated April 25 [2008, I think]
With temperatures continuing to hover near freezing, Lake County growers are still concerned about crop damage and they’re hesitant to say the worst is over. Early morning temperatures in Lake County today remained at freezing levels, reported Lake County Farm Bureau Manager Chuck March.
Several crops, including grapes, pears and walnuts, have all been damaged by the severe cold snap, and March said, “The frost season is running into May and our farmers worry there’s still more cold weather ahead. These unseasonably cold temperatures have gone on for weeks. The conditions may have damaged some crops, but not others. It’s hard to tell right now.”
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California Freeze, January 2007. Widespread agricultural freeze for nearly two weeks in January, overnight temperatures over a good portion of California dipped into the 20’s, destroying numerous agricultural crops; with citrus, berry, and vegetable crops most affected. $1.4 billion estimated in damage/costs; 1 death reported (Lott et al., 2007).
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California’s big freeze brings snow to LA and Malibu (Roundup)
US News
Jan 18, 2007, 16:05 GMT
Los Angeles – California’s big freeze – which has already frozen the citrus crop in a billion dollar squeeze – has now supplied the rare vision of snow in Los Angeles and Malibu.
The normally balmy cities were sprinkled with a dusting of snow overnight to Thursday – a flurry that also closed the Interstate 5, which is the state’s busiest north-south route. [A flurry closes I 5? What do you drive on, racing skids? 🙂]
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Following a December 22-27, 1998, severe cold weather event in the lower San Joaquin River Valley in central California, the authors surveyed citrus growers to determine the relationship between locational, contextual, and perceptual factors and their intentions to modify their land use. Of the approximately 1,200 citrus growing operations in Fresno, Kern, and Tulare counties, 182 responded to our mailed questionnaire. Though damage was extensive – over $700 million – it was not as severe as that caused by a 1990 freeze that hit this region. We examine the relationship of the locational, contextual, and perceptual factors to the extent and distribution of damage and to the motivation of growers to act to reduce or prevent damage. We can conclude a number of interesting relationships that might be worthy of future research.
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Big freeze of 1990: A mass of frigid air from Canada and Alaska swept over California on Dec. 20, 1990, beginning a freeze that lasted nearly two weeks. Statewide, it caused $780 million in agricultural damage. In the Bay Area, the extended period of below-freezing nights caused extensive damage to ornamental plants and trees. Water pipes froze, then burst when they thawed. In San Jose, the temperature dropped to its second-coldest reading on record — a chilly 19 degrees on three separate occasions. And thermometer readings dipped below freezing on 32 days that winter.
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[San Bruno (Bay area) 1962:]
Since 1927, the National Weather Service (formerly the U.S. Weather Bureau) has maintained a weather station at the nearby San Francisco International Airport (formerly Mills Field). According to the official records, January is the coldest month with an average high of 55.9°F (13.3°C) and an average low of 42.9°F (6.1°C). Frost occurs occasionally during the winter months; snowfall is quite rare, but 1.5 inches (3.8 cm) fell on January 21, 1962 (with as much as four inches (10 cm) reported in Crestmoor). Measurable snowfalls also occurred on December 11, 1932 and February 5, 1976. In recent years, traces of snow have been reported on December 27, 1988; January 8, 1989; and February 24, 1996.
[I might have been in San Jose for the 1996 event. I had to pick up someone at the airport, and was looking for slush mixed in with the rain on my car’s windshield. I didn’t see any, but someone at the airport did.]
Minus WHAT : O!?!?!?!?
Holy COW!!!! Some of our ranchers have the occasional calf born in late November. This kind of cold can kill livestock if it stays around a few days. It has been -12 lots. And the winter before last it was -17 to -18 for three days. I don’t ever remember anytime it was -20 or colder but my grandparents remembered those days.
It is freezing rain in Austin, TX right now at 9:15PM. Doppler shows rain but it is freezing pebbles. Maybe turning to snow early morning. Won’t stick, but still fun!
I should have started at 9:15.
While I think the weather for the west coast of California will get colder over the coming weekend into next week, I don’t think it will be any thing close to historic. I have seen much colder weather during this time of year over the west coast over the last 10 years (does any remember December 2006)?
Looking forward, a trough will begin to develop over the west coast by Friday and then deepen over the weekend. Several shortwaves will drop into this through bringing colder and showery weather to much of California and Nevada. At this time it does not appear that excessive cold will affect California at this time (especially Southern California). Snow levels may reach down to around 4000 feet in the LA area and near 2000-3000 feet in the San Francisco Bay area, this is not unprecidented/unusual for this time of year.
Forecast PNA models suggest a switch to a neagive PNA pattern over the next couple of weeks. Forecast models (GFS/ECMWF) suggest that the flow may flatten some next week with significant precipitaiton favoring northern and central California. Timing, depth and details differ some with the western trough. If any cold weather makes it down to the LA area, I don’t see it lasting more than a few days. Since there is forecast model uncertainty, conditions can certainly change but I don’t see it being a significant cold event by any stetch at this time. If anything, I think the ridge will retrograde to near 150W over the coming week allowing more North Pacific oriented storms to affect the west coast with the potential for significant precipitation over the northern half of California (heavy Sierra snow possible).
Temperatures in Austin at 10:22 p.m. this Tuesday evening, December 9, do feel cold, and we did have sleet earlier in the evening. That said, the mercury hasn’t fallen below 32 degrees Fahrenheit anywhere in the Austin area.
The sleet was pretty loud on the windows for a while there and did accumulate some on the ground before melting.
Given that we hit 81 degrees at the airport this afternoon, tonight’s sleet certainly got my attention! They say, “You might live in Texas if … you’ve used the air conditioner and the heater on the same day.”
Bingo!
The fun part about the cold forecast in California, Oregon, and Washington, is that not one of us knows what will happen.
Something tells me that it will be just cold enough to make Ah-nold just a little uncomfuhtible.
By the way, for those keeping track at home, it’s not winter yet.
Can ‘t be that cold, the snow on the bottom of my screen is melting
From terry46 (08:59:35) :
.You may wan’t to put another log on the fire since winter hasn’t officially started yet Dec 9th to be exact but who’s counting.It may be A cold and snowy winter.
-end quote
Sorry, can’t. The Bay Area Air Quality District (i.e. Air Police) have announced that it is now a crime to burn wood on days that they do not approve… So yes, I expect it to be a very cold winter… (Note: No Smiley. No joke.)