"…this year, there was an exceptional amount of ice -"

Click for larger image – Polarstern am Eisrand vor Nordost-Grönland
Photo: Martin Graeve, Alfred-Wegener-Institut

August 7-08 press release on work done from MV Polarstern in the northern Greenland Sea (between Svalbard and NE Greenland):

from Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI): http://idw-online.de/pages/de/news273425

a few excerpts, my abbreviated translation:

“this year, there was an exceptional amount of ice – according to expedition leader Prof. Gerhard Kattner. The extent reached from the high North southward to 74 degrees latitude. The main objective of the research cruise was to check 17 moorings with instruments that monitor temperature, salinity and currents of the water masses. AWI has been carrying out these unique high-latitude investigations since 1999. Observed 2008 temperatures are slightly lower than 2006 measurements, and there are preliminary indications of a return of the pacific water mass signature, which has been absent since 2004″

h/t to: Ulrich Lobsiger for the link and translation

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Admin
August 9, 2008 2:07 am

Because his expedition doesn’t start until August 27th. He at least is trying it during around the annual period of minimum extent.

Pierre Gosselin
August 9, 2008 2:18 am

Here’s a video of a 15 min. GW discussion among Nobel Prize laurates in Lindau (scroll down – it’s in English):
http://klimakatastrophe.wordpress.com/
Schellnhuber says the next Ice Age will not arrive for at least another 40,000 years. Where does he come up with that number?

Pierre Gosselin
August 9, 2008 2:34 am

Richard Elliot,
Good question! Let’s not let the BBC or the kayaker forget this one.
Evan,
Why wait? It’s happened even before GW back in 1821.
http://chincoteaguechamber.com/history/map-rew6.html
Blue,
The translation softwares can handle sentences 3 to 4 worlds long. After that, forget it. If these translations software were better, I’d be out of business.
Rasmin,
I thought you were looking at old data, but indeed there appears to have been an uptick.

Pierre Gosselin
August 9, 2008 2:52 am

Lets’s be fair, and ACCURATE here.
Ulrich left out the reason why the ice has reached the 74th parallel.
Translation of the text below:
<>
So, as you can see, the reason is because of the WIND PATTERNS, and not the temperatures. Not that readers get the wrong impression here.
——————
Original German text:
“Das Meereis zog sich von der Arktis bis fast zum 74. Breitengrad nach Sueden. Staendige Winde aus Nordwesten haben schon seit Sommerbeginn das Eis in den zentralen Bereich der Framstraße geschoben.

Pierre Gosselin
August 9, 2008 2:53 am

Lets’s be fair, and ACCURATE here.
Ulrich left out the reason why the ice has reached the 74th parallel.
Translation of the text below:
“The sea ice extended southward from the Arctic almost to the 74th latitude. Since early summer, constant winds from the northwest have been pushing the ice to the central regions of the Fram Strait.”

August 9, 2008 2:57 am

Well done Anthony!
That article in the Australian mentions your Surfacestations project, so its good to hear you getting some recognition down here!

Pierre Gosselin
August 9, 2008 2:59 am

Man! What a mess I’ve created. SORRY!
The REASON for the ice almost reaching the 74th latitude:
In German:
“Das Meereis zog sich von der Arktis bis fast zum 74. Breitengrad nach Sueden. Staendige Winde aus Nordwesten haben schon seit Sommerbeginn das Eis in den zentralen Bereich der Framstraße geschoben.”
In English:
“The sea ice extended southward from the Arctic almost to the 74th latitude. Since early summer, constant winds from the northwest have been pushing the ice to the central regions of the Fram Strait.”
Summary: because of WIND PATTERNS – not temps.

August 9, 2008 3:27 am

@Evan
I remember the 1993 flood in Manhattan. The financial district was a mess from the storm surge in December of that year. I vividly remember the Christmas tree from the South Street Seaport floating down Water Street.

Pierre Gosselin
August 9, 2008 4:59 am

Translation – exclusively for this website.
Successful measurement series in the Arctic ice – the Polarstern completes its work in the Fram Strait and heads back to Reykjavik.
Bremerhaven, 7 August 2008. The German ice-breaking research ship Polarstern was really put to the test in the Arctic waters to gather data for 2 longterm research series. After completeing works in the regions up to 82° north latitude, the Polarstern of the Alfred-Wegener-Institute for Polar and Sea Research (AWI), belonging to the Helmholtz Association, will arrive in Reykjavik (Island) 10 August. “This year there was especailly a lot of ice to contend with,” says trip leader Prof. Gerhard Kattner. The sea ice extended southwards from the Arctic almost to the 74th latitude. Since early summer, constant winds from the northwest have been pushing the ice to the central regions of the Fram Strait. The main focus of the expedition in this region was: to set probes along 78°50′ north and the so-called “AWI-garden.” The measurements from the now completed Polarstern-Expedition are part of regular ongoing studies. Using such observation series, statements on longterm climate system developments can be drawn. This research work is however only possible using an ice-breaking ship like the Polarstern. With other research ships, setting probes in the ice covered areas is just not possible.
Exchanging probes in thick ice cover
Alfred-Wegener-Institute has been conducting longterm studies on water mass transport in the Fram Strait since 1997. The Fram Strait is located between Spitzbergen and Greenland. It is the most important region for water exchange between the Atlantic and polar masses. Here warm Atlantic water with high salinity flows northwards, while cold low-salinity water from the arctic flows southwards. This oceanic area is the only deepwater connection between the North Atlantic and the Central Arctic Ocean, thus making it a region that is especially senstive to systematic changes. To be able to observe and assess changes, 17 probes have been anchored to the sea floor over the entire region. These measure the temperature, salinity and currents all the way up to the sea surface. “We are very pleased that we have been able to recover and exchange all the probes in these extreme ice conditions,” says Dr. Agnieszka Beszczynska-Möller, oceanographer at the Alfred-Wegener-Institute. The temperature of the Atlantic water compared to the elevated temperature of 2006 has decreased somewhat. This is due to annual variability. Overall, the scientists have determined that the temperature in the Fram Strait has increased since 1997 on average about 0.1 °C annually .

Pierre Gosselin
August 9, 2008 5:02 am

In general, the Polarstern encountered thick ice, which happened to have been blown into the region.
Personally, I see no sign of a cooling climate in this story.

Bruce Cobb
August 9, 2008 7:02 am

I wonder what happened to this guy who was going to kayak to the north pole? From this article: Explorer bids to kayak to ‘melting’ North Pole
“Pugh is due to paddle out from Norway’s Svalbard islands on August 29, heading 1,200km north across the Arctic Ocean to the North Pole, kayaking up cracks in the ice.
The journey should take a minimum of two weeks.
“I’m going to try and get all the way to the North Pole to show the world what is happening,” the 38-year-old said after launching his Polar Defence Project expedition on the River Thames in London.
“It shouldn’t be possible. But this might be the year that it could be. I hope I can’t go all the way.””
Yeah, I’ll bet. Of course he’d have to say that, but that’s just spin. What he really, really wants, and wishes fervently for is to be able to make it all the way to the NP, and be able to plant those 192 flags up there. What a story that would be, and a much-needed kick in the pants for AGW propaganda.
I hope he gets eaten by a polar bear.

Pierre Gosselin
August 9, 2008 7:46 am

Bruce,
Come now – Let’s all wish him a nice trip!

August 9, 2008 9:02 am

“Caught the WWF ad about the end of polar bears and arctic ice last night.
Some people will do anything for a dollar.”
No doubt. The problem is science is no longer important to these people. Blaming man, and ESPECIALLY blaming the USA is Modus Operandi for these tools. We should follow Crichton’s advice involving funding for these projects so that the statements made by these “scientists” isn’t made to further fund their research.
All scientific studies should be funded in a double blind way, where the funder never know which project their research is funding, and the scientist doesn’t know (or care) where his funding is coming from.
That won’t stop these politicians and media tools from making outrageous statements, but it will fix the science from being politicized.

deepslope
August 9, 2008 9:48 am

Some further perspective on this post: My original comment to an older thread on polar ice simply aimed at pointing out the surprise of researchers in the field about encountering much more ice than expected.
Since some discussion ensued, I did make the effort of translating the complete AWI press release, more from the point of view of a practical oceanographer with arctic experience, rather than as a professional translator.
Pierre Gosselin beat me to it, doing an admirable job with the first two paragraphs. And thank you for the important link on the Lindau conference – here it is again: http://klimakatastrophe.wordpress.com/
For those who would like to read the complete AWI story, I will post the remaining paragraphs in a separate post, if accepted – it contains other important information.
For now, some general and somewhat heretic points: Long-term measurements of many parameters of polar ocean climate- and ecosystems are very important to further the understanding of global heat budgets. Expensive multi-year studies such as the Polarstern expeditions compete for funding with many other research projects. Therefore, research grant proposals have to appear responsive to the prevailing policy climate. This taints the search for objective truth even in peer-review establishment science – sometimes subtle wishes take over to prove the arguments that fund the research…
The cyber world with blogs like this one offers a new watchdog mechanism – concerned and informed citizens from outside institutional science drive respectful discussions. Laudably, more and more of the active participants are retired scientists with tremendous insights and credentials. All this may be the beginning of a new renaissance.
My champion for a profound philosophical framework is Freeman Dyson, who has been quoted here before. Compare with http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/dysonf07/dysonf07_index.html

deepslope
August 9, 2008 10:09 am

as promised, the conclusion of my subjective translation of the AWI press release:
“Successful time-series measurements under Arctic sea ice
Polarstern completes work in the Fram Straight and sails toward Reykjavik
Bremerhaven, August 7, 2008

A first for the Alfred Wegener Institute was the use of a “Seaglider” deployed from Polarstern. This is an autonomous vehicle, which dives repeatedly from the water surface to depths of 1000 metres while recording temperature, salinity, Oxygen, water turbidity and pressure. Upon resurfacing, it transmits its data via satellite to Bremerhaven. If required by mission objectives or other constraints, Seaglider can be re-programmed remotely. Seaglider will continue data collection to mid September. At that time it will report its co-ordinates to be retrieved by research vessel KV Svalbard, operated by Norwegian Collaborators.
Return of Pacific waters to Greenland?
The polar waters in front of East Greenland, which flow along the Greenland coast into the Atlantic, consist of water masses of variable origins. A part comes from the Pacific after a long passage from the Bering Straight across the Arctic Ocean. “We have documented this water mass ahead of Greenland for many years” says Prof. Gerhard Kattner. “However, it was hardly traceable there since 2004”. This indicates a noticeable change in the Arctic current system. The current investigations again show a small contribution from pacific waters. Further measurements during coming years are required to verify this trend.
The ‘AWI Garden’ is reserved for another year
AWI carries out the only long-term study in Polar Regions that addresses deep-sea ecology, and its evolution under constant climate change. The ‘AWI Garden’ encompasses an area of 8000 square km in front of the Svalbard Westcoast. In this region with water depths ranging from 1000 to 5500 m, research aims at understanding the function and structure of marine life on the ocean floor of the Arctic deep sea.
These environmental monitoring efforts include investigations of changes in the physical environment and of nutrient fluxes to the sea floor. “To achieve this, we had to move the sea floor instruments farther North last year, to follow the retreating sea ice, so that they were at least partially under the influence of the ice edge” reports Ingo Schewe, biologist at the Alfred Wegener Institute. The results of past years have already indicated that changes in the ice cover cause reductions in certain animal populations that live on the deep-sea floor. The ice edge is a very active biological zone; algae grow rapidly, die off and sink to the sea floor where they serve as nutrients. Movements of the ice edge lead to changes in the nutrient availability in the ‘AWI Garden’. The consequences of this year’s strong ice cover on the small and larger animals of the deep sea will be evaluated in Bremerhaven as well as through further expeditions during coming years.
Polarstern will sail from Reykjavik on August 12 with the goal of reaching the East Siberian Sea. Ice conditions permitting, Polarstern will steam through the Northwest Passage to reach its area of work. The focus of researchers will shift to geophysical investigations. They will conduct seismic reflection data acquisition toward better understanding of tectonic origins of the Mendelejew Ridge and the East Siberian Shelf. At the same time, US and Canadian researchers will conduct similar research programs and share results with the AWI team”.
My assessment: the Polarstern is a great vessel and these quasi ‘play-by-play’ reports posted by AWI are very welcome.
I wonder if the researchers are familiar with the many reports from the ’20s and ’30s about much more extensive retreats of sea ice, especially in the Svalbard region? (as documented before by Anthony).
The bottom line is that Arctic ecosystems, both in the water column and on the sea floor (benthos) are highly variable and constantly adapt to massive productivity changes caused by strongly fluctuating ice conditions. While we’re starting to get an inlling of understanding, it’s important to consider all available evidence.
And, a quick aside to the first two paragraphs: rather than simply discussion temperature trends in the 0.1 degree range, I hope that the publications will offer an assessment of actual heat content of these water masses – 17 moorings giving time-series measurements of the relevant parameters is an excellent starting point to yield a significant data base.

Dave Andrews
August 9, 2008 11:31 am

Pierre
because of WIND PATTERNS – not temps.
And was’nt that exactly the same reason for the ‘unprecedented’ melting of Arctic ice in 2007?
So how well are wind patterns parameterised in the models? Just asking.

Jack Simmons
August 9, 2008 6:26 pm

Let’s see…
Wind patterns, temperatures (air and water), currents, some vulcanism, soot from mankind’s industry; looks as if the arctic region does not lend itself to generalizations does it?
Perhaps it is silly to sit around and watch the daily ice cover and draw conclusions one way or the other about what is going on there.
Maybe what we have to do is take some time and really try to learn some of the details about what is going on before we offer any observations on long term trends.
It is funny in a way to see someone wanting to kayak up to the North Pole.
I do know there were reports of kayakers back during the little ice age making there way to the waters off of Scotland. These were not the extreme sports addicts of our time, but rather Eskimos hunting for a living.
Here’s the journal for the attempt later this month:
http://polardefenseproject.org/blog/?p=90

August 9, 2008 7:34 pm

I would hate to see the kayaker eaten by polar bears, but I’m sure the polar bear cubs would appreciate any contribution he could make.
If there’s less ice, it’s due to global warming. If there’s more ice, it’s due to winds. Got it! Al Gore told me I’d need to keep a notebook full of these little rationales, for occasions like this.

JP Rourke
August 9, 2008 8:42 pm

Pamela Gray:
Actually, there have been no “predictions” that arctic ice will melt away, either like or unlike a popsicle; only an assertion that chances are better than 50/50 that the arctic ice may indeed completely melt at some point in the summer, as early as 2013, but very likely by 2030. We have a few more years yet, and even then it’s just an estimate of the probability being greater than 50%. Most scientists know that predictions about climate cannot be made with any certainty… it is the public, and the reporters whose paychecks they make possible, who continue to insist that predictions can, or ought to, have all uncertainty eliminated, where it’s clearly inappropriate to the scientist.
Robert:
That’s easy. Overall, the trend is that more and more ice is melting; while in any given year the ice may be smaller or larger than the year previous; and two years does not make a ‘trend’. Furthermore, unusually large amounts of ice can be found in one area, while unusually small amounts may be found elsewhere. Actually, that is kind of obvious.
Regarding the ‘uptick’ in the melt data from NSIDC – I think what is meant is a reduction in the slope of the down-tick; it’s still down, not up at all; just a little less down. In any event, I noticed that almost every day in June/July; in fact some days it really DID look like an actual UP tick, ot at least flat; but then the next day it would be smoothed to a downward position again, no reduction in downslope at all. I’ve always wondered about that – is their ‘smoothing algorithm’ published anywhere?
Incidentally, the date of minimum ice has apparently been moving later and later in the year; last year it was September 21, I believe; we really don’t know what it will be this year until it happens – so it’s hard to say how many weeks of melt season are actually left.
The Bremen AMSRE charts show a huge area of ‘almost ice-free’ area so we could have yet one more downward drop this year; then again, sometimes the AMSRE record seems to darken and lighten (darker=closer to completely melted) so I’ve found I can’t really predict what the next day will look like, until it appears.
Check out the Northwest Passage, though – Amundsen’s route in the south is totally ice-free apparently, right now; but the main channel looks like it may last as long as it did last year, around 8/21.
Time will tell.

Pierre Gosselin
August 10, 2008 3:28 am

Dave Andrews,
Wind Patterns – That’s the defence us skeptics used last year, which was a different situation I think. Last year unusual southerly winds, correct me if I’m mistaken, melted ice well into later summer.
But in this AWI story here, persistent northwesterly winds since early summer have shifted the ice from one place to another.
Sorry, but I think Anthony’s use of this anecdote mislead the readers, leading them to surmise that cold temperatures led to ice being so far south. That’s not the case.
To be sure. Anthony didn’t say anything false. He just left out the all important reason why they ran into ice so far south. He also left out the data that the ocean temperature in this region indeed has gone up 1°C over the last decade. Why?
Personally I was surprised by this, and found it quite unllike him.

Pierre Gosselin
August 10, 2008 3:49 am

Dave Andrews,
“So how well are wind patterns parameterised in the models? Just asking.”
I have no idea. But knowing what we know about climate modfels thus far, I’d say quite poorly, if I had to guess.
deepslope,
Thank you so much for completing the work – an excellent job. I hope other readers will take time to read it.
You wrote:
“I wonder if the researchers are familiar with the many reports from the ’20s and ’30s about much more extensive retreats of sea ice, especially in the Svalbard region? (as documented before by Anthony).”
I for one would welcome the resurfacing of such reports. Any links?
You wrote:
“The bottom line is that Arctic ecosystems, both in the water column and on the sea floor (benthos) are highly variable and constantly adapt to massive productivity changes caused by strongly fluctuating ice conditions. While we’re starting to get an inlling of understanding, it’s important to consider all available evidence.”
Exactly, And I wish the alarmists would understand that variability is natural, and that we are not going to be able to hold the planet at its current conditions.

old construction worker
August 10, 2008 4:53 am

Pierre Gosselin (03:28:42)
‘Anthony didn’t say anything false. He just left out the all important reason why they ran into ice so far south. He also left out the data that the ocean temperature in this region indeed has gone up 1°C over the last decade. Why?
Personally I was surprised by this, and found it quite unllike him.’
Anthony didn’t write the article. Nor did he add to it. As you stated Ulrich left out the reason why the ice has reached the 74th parallel.

blue
August 10, 2008 5:50 am

I am sorry, I still have serious issues with deepslope’s translation of two key phrases. I am a native speaker of German and cannot help but notice that the emphasis put on in the translation is exaggerated. In the following I’ll blockquote the original and deepslope’s translations and add my comments below to show, why I think so.

“In diesem Jahr hatten wir es mit besonders viel Eis zu tun,”
this year, there was an exceptional amount of ice

“besonders” translates to “more than usual”, or as Pierre Gosselin put it “This year there was especailly a lot of ice to contend with”, which is fine with me. To go beyond “besonders”, you would choose “ungewöhnlich” (extraordinary), to go even stronger you would choose “aussergewöhnlich” (exceptional). So deepslope’s translations puts on an emphasis at least two orders too strong. What makes it worse, the phrase sets the tone for this post and was even chosen as the title of the post. Yes, later on in the article the report how difficult it was to retrieve the equipment under the “extreme conditions” but it is still “extreme” as any strong ice will be, not “exceptional”.

Die jetzigen Untersuchungen zeigen wieder einen geringen Anteil von pazifischem Wasser. Ob sich dieser Trend fortsetzt, müssen Messungen in den nächsten Jahren zeigen.
The current investigations again show a small contribution from pacific waters. Further measurements during coming years are required to verify this trend.

It should read “Further measurements during coming years need to show, if this trend holds up.” So in the original it is uncertain, whether there is a trend at all, whereas in the translation it is there and just needs to be verified. A subtle difference, but a difference nonetheless.

And, a quick aside to the first two paragraphs: rather than simply discussion temperature trends in the 0.1 degree range, I hope that the publications will offer an assessment of actual heat content of these water masses – 17 moorings giving time-series measurements of the relevant parameters is an excellent starting point to yield a significant data base.

The temperature trend is 0.1°C per year or 1°C per decade over the observational period since 1997. As for assessing the heat content, of course they do, e.g. here:
Variation of Measured Heat Flow Through the Fram Strait Between 1997 and 2006
U. Schauer, A. Beszczynska-Möller, W. Walczowski, E. Fahrbach, J. Piechura and Edmond Hansen

in Arctic–Subarctic Ocean Fluxes – Defining the Role of the Northern Seas in Climate
or this abstract from a meeting:
Variability of heat flux toward the Arctic Ocean from nearly decadal measurements by an array of moorings in Fram Strait.
Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 8, 04051, 2006
I’m sorry that all of the above may sound harsh and I am new here, after all, but I think this is something the non-German-speaking readers ought to know about.
P.S.: Thank you Pierre, I mistranslated “Straight” instead of “Strait”.

Pofarmer
August 10, 2008 6:29 am

““It shouldn’t be possible. But this might be the year that it could be. I hope I can’t go all the way.”””
I wonder how much it’s going to cost when somebodies govt has to helicopter out and retrieve him?

iceFree
August 10, 2008 7:33 am

“I for one would welcome the resurfacing of such reports. Any links?”
Here is one from John Daly http://www.john-daly.com/polar/arctic.htm