Army Chief Scientist: "Sun’s turbulent dynamics" driving climate

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From Wired Magazine:

The Army is weighing in on the global warming debate, claiming that climate change is not man-made.  Instead, Dr. Bruce West, with the Army Research Office, argues that “changes in the earth’s average surface temperature are directly linked to … the short-term statistical fluctuations in the Sun’s irradiance and the longer-term solar cycles.”

In the March, 2008 issue of Physics Today, West, the chief scientist of the Army Research Office’s mathematical and information science directorate, wrote that “the Sun’s turbulent dynamics” are linked with the Earth’s complex ecosystem. These connections are what is heating up the planet. “The Sun could account for as much as 69 percent of the increase in Earth’s average temperature,” West noted.

It’s a position that puts West at odds with nearly every major scientific organization on the planet. “The American Meteorological Society, the American Geophysical Union, and the American Association for the Advancement of Science all have issued statements in recent years concluding that the evidence for human modification of climate is compelling,” Science magazine observes. So has the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore, for their work on global warming.

West acknowledges that the IPCC and other scientific groups have “conclude[d] that the contribution of solar variability to global warming is negligible.” He argues that these groups have done a poor job modeling the Sun’s impact, however, and that’s why they have “significantly over-estimated” the “anthropogenic contribution to global warming.”

In recent days, the science and politics of climate change have once again taken center stage. NASA’s Inspector General just issued a report, acknowledging that political appointees “reduced, marginalized or mischaracterized climate change science made available to the general public.” Yesterday, the Senate began debating a bill that would cap carbon dioxide emissions — considered one of the leading causes of man-made global warming.

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June 4, 2008 1:07 pm

Zeke: Those are not ACRIM and PMOD TSI curves. Those are the contributions of phenomenological solar signature (PSS) on climate for ACRIM and PMOD, which are what Scafetta and West calculate to be the effects on global temperature of those TSI sources. The paper and the references are reasonably easy reading.

Gary Gulrud
June 4, 2008 2:40 pm

kim:
Shocked I am, you’re a stitch.

June 4, 2008 4:34 pm

Bob,
I realize they are using PSS. My question is how they get from a flat TSI to a positive PSS, as it is not discussed in this specific paper. I’ll take a look at N. Scafetta, B.J. West, J. Geophys. Res. 2007. to see if I can wrap my head around it.

June 5, 2008 6:56 am

http://i27.tinypic.com/5nkp4o.jpg
Prof. Dr. Werner K. Schmutz
Director PMOD/WRC
Davos, Switzerland
Fractions of solar irradiance variations due to solar surface magnetism (lower limit estimates):
Solar rotation time scale: > 90%
Activity cycle time scale: > 90%
Secular (centuries) time scale: ?
Status: magnetic evolution can be modeled (contribution of other sources is unknown)
UV modeling
fair progress – not yet solved
UV influence on climate
ozone reaction understood
tropospheric climate response only about 50% of the estimated solar influence

June 5, 2008 7:01 am

Also:
http://i29.tinypic.com/hx44ci.jpg
Note the effects of surface ozone, it’s almost equal to methane. This is however IPCC 2001, so the aerosol effect is biased as having a net cooling effect. Note their potential total forcing for solar.