The ‘correlation is not causation’ hockey stick

http://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=correlation+is+not+causation&year_start=1800&year_end=2008&corpus=0&smoothing=3 Mike Lorrey writes- PAY ATTENTION CLIMATE ALARMISTS: “The phrase ‘correlation does not imply causation’ goes back to 1880 (according to Google Books). However, use of the phrase took off in the 1990s and 2000s, and is becoming a quick way to short-circuit certain kinds of arguments. About these ads

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Climate models outperformed by random walks

First, a bit of a primer. Wikipedia describes a random walk is a mathematical formalisation of a trajectory that consists of taking successive random steps. For example, the path traced by a molecule as it travels in a liquid or a gas, the search path of a foraging animal, the price of a fluctuating stock…