So very close but not quite – Humberto came within about 2 hours of beating the satellite era lateness record for formation of Atlantic hurricane, though it looks to me like NOAA was trying to beat the deadline by giving credence to estimates:
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 500 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013 CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE WITH HUMBERTO DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...WITH A LARGE CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CYCLONE ALSO BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 6Z SUPPORTED ANYTHING FROM 55-65 KT...AND GIVEN THE NOTABLE STRENGTHENING OF THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION AND OVERALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL WINDS ARE RAISED TO 65 KT.
Note that Gustav in 2002 was a much different hurricane, closer to the USA. Humberto probably won’t make it across the Atlantic before turning north and dissipating. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gustav_(2002)
Speaking of hurricanes, we are still in a major unprecedented hurricane drought in the USA- Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. has updated his drought graph:
Updated ‘Remarkable’ Major Hurricane Drought Figure — ’2,878 days. The US major hurricane drought continues. This length of time is almost exactly twice as long as the previous ‘drought’ since 1915 (which was 1975-1979)’
‘Of course, it could end this month (September) or after, but it will end sometime. Whenever it does it has been remarkable.’
Steve McIntyre: IPCC and the end of summer
Though I haven’t posted for a while, I’ve done quite a bit of work on climate recently, though it hasn’t been the sort of work that lends itself readily to blog posts.
I made a presentation at a workshop session in Erice in the third week of August, which, at Chris Essex’ request, was entitled “Year in Review”, focusing on developments in proxy reconstructions. Ross McKitrick made a presentation with an identical title, covering other topics. I spent much of my time on the section on proxy reconstructions in the forthcoming IPCC report, as presaged in the Second Draft, a document which I’ve had for some time, but which I hadn’t yet parsed. In carrying out my own internal review, I re-examined the voluminous literature on individual proxies: ice cores, speleothems, ocean sediments as well as tree rings and “multi-proxy” reconstructions.
The review reminded me of conversations that I had with two prominent though then relatively early/mid-career climate scientists shortly before the announcement of AR4 in January 2007.
‘Where, Oh Where, Has that Global Warming Gone?’ — ‘One highly plausible answer to this mystery is that the climate models upon which IPCC’s failed projections are based exaggerate climate sensitivity to CO2, underestimate known natural forcings, and simply don’t understand how to factor in and calibrate other influences such as ocean cycles and solar activity.’
In the election of 2010, as climate alarmism’s downward spiral was well underway, Julia Gillard shackled her fortunes to the Greens, environmental extremists who demanded urgent action on climate as part of the deal to support Labor. Gillard was forced to break her pre-election promise on the introduction of a carbon [dioxide] tax, and from that moment, trust in her and Labor was gone.
The hopelessly politicised Climate Commission, the function of which was apparently to spin government propaganda as “science”, is to be abolished, along with a raft of other pointless climate organisations.
Here’s how ACM reported some of the worst Climate Commission excesses
Solar maximum and an almost spotless sun.
The AGU turns to lobbying, this was in my Inbox this morning:
Traveling today, light blogging expected – Anthony